Thanks, Carlos

It was a pleasure watching you. Looking forward to another postseason tear.

Trying really hard to craft that silver lining

As I sit here going back and forth between being frustrated at the Mets' offseason (leading to doubts about the coming season) and letting the fan in me have hope, let's take a look at some forced parallels and other good omens that might serve as a precursor to a successful season in 2010. Just a few things to help instill hope. (I hope.)

DIVISION HISTORY

In the NL East's existence, the Braves are the only team to win more than three division titles in a row.

SCHEDULING

The last time the Mets opened the season at home was in 2006.

The Mets also opened at home in 1969, 1973 and 2000 (not counting the two in Japan, though they were the home team for the first of those two as well).

The last time the Mets lost more than 90 games (91 in 2004), they won 83 the following season. The last time they lost 92 or more (94 in '83), they won 90 the next year.

All-time, the Mets have a better winning percentage for the season when they open at home vs. on the road (.480 to .477), when they close at home vs. on the road (.496 to .461) and when they both open and close at home vs. playing both on the road (.468 to .397).

MANAGING

Of the nine Mets managers to guide the team through at least two full seasons (should Jerry Manuel last the season), six improved their win totals in the second campaign, by an average of 13 victories. Of the three who didn't, Yogi Berra went from 83 wins to 82 but also led the Mets to the World Series in that second season (1973); Joe Torre went from 66 to 63 wins and Bobby Valentine won 88 in each of his first two years at the helm.

SUPER BOWL TIE-IN

The Mets average 85 wins and a .525 winning percentage in the season following a team winning its debut appearance in the Super Bowl.

RANDOMNESS

In 2009, the Yankees lost their highest-paid player and a Scott Boras client, Alex Rodriguez, for the first month-and-a-half because of surgery. In 2010, the Mets won't have their highest-paid (position) player and a Scott Boras client, Carlos Beltran, for the first month-and-a-half because of surgery.

The Mets have more success in even-numbered years (.484 winning percentage) than odd (.473).

Final evaluation of the 2004 Beltran blockbuster

It has been 5 1/2 years since the Royals traded Carlos Beltran to the Astros in a three-team deal also involving the Oakland A's. Houston, of course, only had Beltran through the 2004 postseason (that amazing eight homer, 14-RBI, .400+ postseason) before he signed with the Mets. The A's got Octavio Dotel in the deal and used him to save 22 of the 45 games he pitched the rest of the way in 2004, but only got 15 games from in 2005 before he had Tommy John surgery. The following offseason, he signed with the Yankees.

And for dealing Beltran, the Royals got right-hander Mike Wood and third baseman Mark Teahen from the A's and catcher John Buck from the Astros. Wood went 11-19 with the Royals through 2006, then signed with the Rangers. After pitching in 21 games for Texas in '07, he's spent the rest of his time on the Rangers' and Marlins' Triple-A clubs. Teahen averaged 14 homers, 70 RBIs and a .749 OPS in his five seasons with the Royals before they traded him last month to the White Sox for Chris Getz and Josh Fields.

Now K.C. has lost the last remaining player from that deal after non-tendering John Buck last night (in favor of new backstop Jason Kendall, who signed a two-year deal) and watching him agree to a deal with the Blue Jays.

So despite having their haul from the deal for the shortest time, the Astros probably made out the best, nearly reaching the World Series with Beltran in 2004 (and perhaps building the momentum or belief for their run to the Fall Classic in 2005). The A's finished second in 2004 and 2005, the only years they had Dotel, but won the AL West in 2006. And the Royals never won more than 75 games or finished higher than fourth in the AL Central with the players the got in return for Beltran.

Shades of Mays

There's been a lot of talk about Fred Wilpon's dual homage to the ballpark of his youth, the Dodgers' Ebbets Field, and Hall of Famer Jackie Robinson in the design of Citi Field. Some Mets fans hate it; some Giants fans wonder where the love is.

As a fan of history -- particularly baseball's -- I have little problem with either nod to the past. To me, it's honoring New York's baseball history. The Rotunda celebrates Jackie Robinson and the ballpark resembles Brooklyn's old yard. In a way, the Dodgers left both behind.

But so far, it appears that Citi Field is playing a little more like another former New York ballyard -- the Polo Grounds. The outfield dimensions -- 277 feet to left field, 455 to center, 258 to right -- aren't anywhere close, of course, but with what seems like Death Valley in center field and a haven for triples in right-center (the Mets have 11 home runs this season and eight triples), there are some similarities beyond the green seats.

The Mets, who have been known for good pitching through much of their existence, are going to have to become known for their center fielders, too -- particularly those with above-average defensive skills, like Carlos Beltran. Citi Field gives the outfield captain a lot of room to roam, and if they're going to have any chance of competing year in and year out, they're going to need a skilled center fielder who can run down long fly balls that don't get over the wall.

This point was highlighted for me watching Gary Sheffield's potential double become an out in the glove of Marlins center fielder Cody Ross on Monday night. When I watched it again later, it reminded me a lot of Willie Mays' famous catch in the 1954 World Series.


In no way is Cody Ross equal to Willie Mays, and catching a fly ball in April is nothing compared to running down a drive in October -- plus turning to make the throw to prevent a runner from advancing -- but the two catches did look a little similar to me.



I'm sure it won't be long until Beltran drops our jaws with a play of his own. He's definitely done it before.

When Sheffield hit that ball, my initial thought was that he might be the first player to sink one in the Home Run Apple's bucket. He fell short, but David Wright also came close later with his triple. And Austin Kearns was the first to hit a homer into the batter's eye around the apple when he did so on Sunday.

So that's the pool: Who will be the first player to drop one inside the apple's hideaway? My money's on Carlos Delgado.

Randolph fired in the middle of the night

In a move stunning and disgusting for its timing and method, the Mets fired Willie Randolph after their 9-6 victory over the Angels on Monday night. Pitching coach Rick Peterson and first-base coach/catching instructor Tom Nieto were also axed.

On the one hand, the team wasn't playing up to its potential. But on the other, it isn't a very well-constructed team to begin with, particularly with so much of it relying on declining veterans.

I think, though, the most shocking aspect of it is that they did it after an inspiring victory, one in which the hitters came through in the clutch with runners on and tacked on runs in the later innings. With the exception of Pedro Feliciano, the bullpen performed well, with Aaron Heilman getting out of a seventh-inning jam by striking out Vladimir Guerrero and Torii Hunter; Duaner Sanchez pitching the eighth and Billy Wagner saving his second straight after three blowups. Plus, Mike Pelfrey had his fourth straight impressive start.

My concern now is that some players who have begun to put it all together -- Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran have been playing well of late, and then there's Pelfrey -- will regress. That momentum will be gone, that familiarity out the door.

Or maybe they wanted Willie booted. We'll see.

I'm sure I'll have more to say after I've slept on it. I don't want to go too far now on my initial gut reactions, only hours after the announcement.

Beltran suddenly becomes a leader

Oh, it's on.

Last year, Jimmy Rollins -- an already vocal sparkplug in the Phillies' clubhouse -- came out and declared the Phillies the team to beat in the NL East, with little more than personal pride to back him up. He and his teammates felt they had the best team in the division on paper, though that contention could be debated at length. In the end, though, Rollins performed on the field and the Phillies took advantage of the Mets' stumble to take the division for one day -- the last day.

Now, it's Carlos Beltran's turn. After three years of being a silent leader -- if that -- on the field, Beltran sat down with reporters on his first day in camp on Saturday and said, "To Jimmy Rollins: We are the team to beat."

It's certainly out of character for the reserved center fielder, but if this signals a new, outspoken outfielder, that would almost certainly be a benefit for the Mets, a team already seen as more businesslike and tightly wound than the Phillies. In my mind, the Mets already were a loose and fun-loving team, especially compared to the Yankees. So if the Mets are too stiff, what does that make the Yankees? And do the Phillies have any discipline?

I'll save my thoughts on Mets vs. Phillies on paper for my overall look at the NL East, but I'll say this now: If David Wright continues to assert himself as a clubhouse and on-field leader (and something of a captain, as suggested by the New York Times last week) and if Carlos Delgado can stay healthy and have a bit of a bounce-back season while continuing his veteran leadership, Beltran's emergence as a more visible leader can only help.

I can only imagine Opening Day at Shea. Rollins will be booed as lustily as ever, and Beltran may very well get the loudest ovation he's heard in three years in New York. Saturday's proclamation should keep Beltran in the fans' good graces for a month or two, and I expect it will buy him a reprieve when that first slump hits.

Sticking it to the NL East for four more years

Jose Reyes, Shea Stadium, June 19, 2006

Outstanding move by the Mets to lock up Jose Reyes through 2010, or possibly through 2011. He's one of three players for whom you could make the case is the Mets' MVP. With Reyes, Carlos Beltran and David Wright all worthy of consideration, Albert Pujols is almost assured of taking it for the second straight year because those three Mets will split votes. If Beltran continues his torrid second half and finishes with numbers near Pujols', he'll have the best chance of giving the Mets their first MVP award.

It should be their second, following Darryl Strawberry's outstanding 1988, which was better than Kirk Gibson's season. But Kevin McReynolds seemed to take some of Strawberry's votes. I wonder if the results would have been different if we viewed OPS the same way in 1988 that we do today.

Signing Reyes -- and buying out his arbitration years -- just adds to the feel-good story of this 2006 season. Wright will probably be next, whether it's done this season, during the offseason, in spring training or next season. And this announcement should finally erase the memory of the bad dream I had a few weeks ago -- a dream in which Jose Reyes signed with the Yankees.

Shudder.

Not gonna happen. At least not during these formative, productive years.

Tuning in to the WBC

Now that the World Baseball Classic has begun, I find myself interested. There was little chance of me truly getting pumped up for this new tournament beforehand, but now that the games have begun, several factors have drawn -- and held -- my interest.

The games. Quite simply, I'm drawn to the competition. I love baseball and I'll watch spring training games, but other than catching an at bat by Lastings Milledge and a couple of batters faced by Mike Pelfrey, I couldn't even stay glued to Sunday's Mets-Puerto Rico exhibition game. But for games that mean something -- even if that something is a trumped-up "world championship" -- it's held my interest. On Tuesday, when play began stateside, I kept the Venezuela-Dominican Republic game on at work and then watched the U.S. and Mexico both at work and at home. While I spent yesterday afternoon at the opening-round doubleheader for the Big East Tournament, I caught a little of the early innings of the U.S.-Canada game at a bar while I had dinner. Later that evening, I watched the end of the game -- the Miracle on Grass! -- at a friend's house.

Yankee-hating. George Steinbrenner hates the WBC. So I'm inclined to like it. Besides, the deeper into the tournament the United States goes, the longer the Yanks are without Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez and Johnny Damon. They're also without Al Leiter, but I don't see how that hurts them. The fact that Leiter -- a Jersey guy himself who pitched quite well for the Mets -- is even on the team is ridiculous. The guy is far from an effective pitcher. Obviously past his prime, he's also clearly past the point of being a solid contributor to a major-league pitching staff. Why he's believed to be a pitcher worthy of representing the United States -- actually, he's worthy of representing the U.S., but not worthy of helping them to a title -- is perhaps the biggest question on this roster.

The matchups. Yes, it's only spring training, but there are still some matchups I've been drawn to. Watching Carlos Beltran single in two runs against Billy Wagner in the exhibition on Sunday was nice when I realized, as a Mets fan, I don't have to worry about facing Wagner in the ninth inning anymore. He's ours! I know we're treated to a Johan Santana-David Ortiz at bat once or twice a season, but because the Twins can't seem to get past the Yankees in the playoffs, we've yet to see it in a setting any bigger than a Tuesday night July meeting. Ortiz's bomb on Tuesday seemed a little bit more impressive to me. And last night, as the U.S. tried to rally in the eighth, the Phillies' Chase Utley came to the plate with the tying runs on base and two outs. On the mound was Canadian Scott Mathieson -- one of the Phillies' top prospects. When Mathieson left a pitch out over the plate, Utley drilled it high and deep to center, flicking his bat away with the flair of a 40-home run hitter who had just hit one he was sure was leaving the ballpark. Only Utley hit it to straightaway center in a pretty expansive Chase Field, where Adam Stern sprinted back to the warning track and caught it just before he slammed into the wall. The kid let the young stud hit it, but he got him to hit it in the right place.

The best-laid plans ... The favorites are obviously the United States and the Dominican Republic, with Japan, Venezuela, Puerto Rico and Canada expected to put up a fight as well. Cuba is a wild card because they're isolated and so little is known about them as a team. The way the draw is set up, the U.S. and Japan would meet in the second round, ideally advancing and facing off in the one-game semifinal in San Diego on March 18. But Canada's upset of the U.S. yesterday means the Americans have to beat South Africa tomorrow and hope that Mexico either loses to Canada tonight or, at least, doesn't win by a score of either 1-0, 2-1 or 2-0 (something about the tiebreaker of runs per nine innings). A Mexican win by one of those scores means Steinbrenner gets his stars back on Sunday. Not having the U.S. get to Round 2 would be a nightmare for Bud Selig and his pet project. He's maintained that the primary purpose of the WBC is to expand global interest in the game, but having the U.S. eliminated so early would deal a significant blow to any efforts to increase American interest in the tournament. But hey, it might influence the International Olympic Committee to reconsider its decision to do away with the sport after the 2008 Summer Games in China. As I understand it, there is one last chance for another vote in 2009, but unless the rest of the world catches up quickly and the U.S. fixes the political mess its made in Iraq and elsewhere in the world, there's little chance that any further votes would produce a different outcome.

There are still some kinks to be worked out, but I think this is a tournament that could become something. Finding a way to ensure the best from each country participate is the biggest need; not having guys like Manny Ramirez and Vladimir Guerrero playing dilutes the whole package. But unless they find a way to fit the tournament into the November period after the World Series and before Thanksgiving, they're always going to have that problem. I can't say I felt a powerful urge to see such a tournament, nor do I think I'll miss it if it doesn't return in 2009 or 2013, but it's here now and so long as the games are on, I don't see a reason not to tune in.

It's still baseball, after all.

Day 1: Discovering a new Shea

River Road curbside I stand waiting for the 158 New York City bus -- sweating uncomfortably, I might add, until this pleasant breeze kicked up -- I could count all the drivers heading south who unsafely (and perhaps illegally; I'm not sure what Edgewater's law is) talk on their cell phones while driving. Holding it, looking at it -- a glance at the screen as he pulls up to and then through the intersection. I mean, if you're going to look, don't do it at an intersection on a four-lane road. Here I stand, easily annoyed at how much more our society becomes me-centered everyday. But the bus arrives at 5:41, pretty much on time and so articly, refreshingly frigid.

This is my third game in nine days, my second in three, my 48th at Shea overall. How do I approach it differently? How do I put a fresh spin on a routine experience? Therein lies the challenge, I believe. Tonight, rather than sitting and scoring (a task that, in this internet age can be done -- or adjusted, for accuracy -- at home) I decide instead to wander the aisles a little bit, to observe and record the atmosphere, the flavor of Shea on a sweltering July night. I know I'll arrive late anyway, so most of any scoring would be done online as a result. The challenge, of course, is getting to the city. A 20-minute trip at best (and, truthfully, it's never that), 30 minutes on average, takes that long just to get to the last stop in New Jersey, at Lincoln Harbor. Then it takes us another 20 to get through the Lincoln Tunnel to New York, where we head all the way to 31st Street to get onto 10th Avenue to go up to the Port Authority at 40th. All because of traffic. Nearly an hour after I boarded, we're in the left lane at 37th and 10th and I'm wondering how we'll move to the right across three lanes of traffic in three blocks. Turns out we'll do it in the span of one block -- simply by brute force, mere intimidation. When does the 40-ton bus change lanes? Whenever it wants to!

Off the bus at 6:45, I'm in luck with no line at Auntie Anne's, so for $3.70 I have a pretzel and a lemonade. At Shea, that would cost me about $6.50 -- if not more -- and with three ballparks in three days, I'm determined to spend no money inside Shea Stadium tonight. Only the good fortune of no line allows me this stop and my timing turns out perfectly. As I descend the steps inside the subway, the E train has just come to a stop, only the slower moving pokes in front of me prevent me from boarding as the doors close. I stand there a second and the doors do indeed open again, and I step aboard with a satisfied sigh. The pretzel is gone before we've made four stops and left Manhattan.

How to approach this game differently was taken care of by the Mets: a sellout on Merengue Night, an atmosphere off the train and on the ramp like a holiday, a postseason game, an event. The platform railing was packed with people watching from afar (and for the low, low cost of a $2 subway fare). The gates into the ballpark were linked by one extended, meandering, pulsating throng of people wrapping the stadium. It is a late-arriving crowd, the top of the second inning underway inside and lines still forming to pass through the checkpoints and get inside. Mets employees are checking tickets and directing people to their assigned gates to cut down on bottlenecks, not to mention at the top of escalators and ramps, preventing people from exiting onto the loge level if their tickets are for the mezzanine or upper deck.

I couldn't be happier with my seat in the back row of the loge. On Wednesday, when I bought the ticket, I asked for the cheapest, upper reserved. The ticket agent told me she had the rear of the loge for the same price, the trade-off being the low overhang which cuts off my field of view a few feet above the outfield wall. It's not new to me, so I didn't mind taking it for the closer view of the rest of the action. The bonus to this panoramic home-plate view is the constant breeze, natural air conditioning so comfortable, this game might as well be played in a dome. Looking down as I write in my notebook, I hear the crack of Jeff Kent's bat and the resulting, "Ooooh" of the crowd means I don't even have to look up. But I do, and I see Cliff Floyd trotting toward the wall in left field for a token look as the ball sails deep into the Dodgers bullpen. 1-0 Los Angeles.

Up the aisle walks a kid -- maybe 12, 13 years old -- in a Yankee shirt. It's one of my biggest pet peeves at the ballpark, the wearing of a team when it's not on the field. With New York being a two-team city, it's to be expected, whereas in Seattle or St. Louis, it might not be so commonplace. But this kid is no hanger-on, no bandwagon jumper, for when he turns around, the back reads, "GEHRIG 4." That's respect.

As I walk the ballpark -- or, more accurately, the loge level -- the Dominican flags are too many to count. At least six full-sized ones hang from overhangs and railings out in the stands while dozens of a more manageable size are carried, tucked into a waistband or incorporated into a shirt or a hat. For every red, white and blue Dominican flag, there are probably two jerseys or t-shirts with a No. 45 on the back and the name Martinez above it. The electricity that could have been produced had the Mets not altered the rotation and kept Pedro on schedule to pitch tonight ...

By the fifth inning, it's 6-0 Dodgers. Victor Zambrano just didn't have it tonight. At least it's in support of Jeff Weaver, I think, wondering how much that helps, having a pitcher on my struggling fantasy team pitch well at the expense of my favorite major league franchise. Earlier, out in section 31, I heard someone echo my mother's oft-repeated thought. Citing the Mets' 12-0 victory on Thursday, he said they should've "saved" some runs for tonight. Well, no, not really, I think. Hitting is contagious. Get into a groove and keep it going for a few games. That's what I say.


The loge level is where you want to be for a big game, or for a sellout. When there's a raucous crowd, the overhang amplifies the cheers. You feel like you're in a club, it's so loud. That observation is brought to you by Doug Mientkiewicz and his 10th home run of the season, cutting the score to 6-2 in the bottom of the fifth.

Another thought comes to me an inning later, set up by singles from Jose Reyes and Mike Cameron. Carlos Beltran comes to the plate and turns on a Jeff Weaver offering to launch a home run into the small spit of loge seats that extend into fair territory -- way out in section 31. My section behind the plate is eccstatic, the music pumping and Reyes and Cameron exchanging a unique bumping of fists and elbows at home as they await Beltran's arrival. I think back a week to the home run derby in Detroit and to last year's in Houston, where I watched from a seat far out in right-center field, where no balls could reach me (not that I wanted it that way, but that's where they sat the less important media). The Mets haven't asked to host an All-Star Game in nearly 30 years, but how could they have it? Shea hardly has any outfield bleachers, so all of those home-run balls would bounce off the scoreboard or land in the no-man's land of scaffolding and player parking instead of being engulfed in a sea of bare arms and outstreched gloves.

Now it's 6-5, thanks to Beltran, and I decide then that rather than leaving at 9:30 in order to ensure I catch the 10:30 bus back to New Jersey, that I must stick around for this one. There's a feeling in the air besides the humidity, the feeling that there is more to this comeback. I'm sitting in a sea of strangers, brought here first for our love of the Mets, but my neighbors on this night also come for the love of the music to be played after the game. On this night, we gringos are far in the minority. I don't want to leave. I want more of a rebound from the Mets, more reasons to slap hands with these momentary friends around me. I can't bring myself to walk away from this just so I can be home "at a good hour" to pack for the weekend and get off to an early start in the morning.

The seventh inning stretch comes and rather than the standard Lou Monte jingle following "Take Me Out To the Ballgame," someone in the production room plays to the crowd as the Macarena echoes across Shea. Sadly, those are the last few moments of what had become a block party atmosphere. Los Angeles' bullpen comes in and closes the door, preventing any further Mets comeback. I stay to the end, leaving only when there are two outs and no one on in the bottom of the ninth. I stand at the top of the ramp to watch the final out before turning and commencing the brisk walk to the elevated tracks to beat the crowds -- not onto the train, but those who are moving down, entering the field level after sitting for nine innings in the upper deck. They want to be closer to the show, closer to the concert by Fernando Villalona, Sergio Vargas and El Jeffrey.


I walk to the front end of the platform, out from under the overhang and beyond the wall that blocks any view of the stadium. The ramps are packed. The sidewalks around the outside are bustling. It's a festive scene, one that you wouldn't expect following a loss, but this is one of those games where you get the feeling the outcome wasn't the most important thing. Coming to this game tonight was about community, about a night out with friends, whether you planned ahead and came with them, or ran into them as you made your way to your seats -- a phenomenon I witnessed twice tonight. The Mets have always been New York's second team, the one that came along later after the Yankees had existed in the city for more than half a century. The Mets were immigrants to the New York baseball world, and these nine years of heritage nights -- of which Merengue Night is one -- simply seem appropriate for this ballpark, for Queens. A ballgame at Shea Stadium, to me, feels like walking down a city block where everyone knows their neighbors, where they sit on the stoop and send greetings out to the passersby on the sidewalk or to a window three doors down and two flights up. And on Merengue Night, it just becomes a 55,000-person block party.

The Mets are better off

The Mets couldn't pull off the free agent trifecta.

In the end, I think the Mets are better off without Carlos Delgado. He's certainly a player you want on your team, and I would have taken him for four years at around $45 million, but to look at what the Marlins signed him for, I'm glad he went south. It would have been nice to keep him out of the division, but there's only so much you can do.

First of all, the guy's going to be 33 when the season starts. Carlos Beltran is five years younger and Pedro Martinez is a pitcher. It's different giving four years to a 33-year-old pitcher than to a 33-year-old slugger.

Second, you're taking him out of SkyDome as well as the American League. The pitching's going to be tougher and in addition to adjusting to a new league and a new city, he's going to be hitting in a less forgiving ballpark. Shea probably would have been better for him than Dolphins Stadium, but neither can promise him 40, 45 home runs the way Oriole Park would have.

Finally, the Mets need defense. With Mike Piazza behind the plate, Cliff Floyd in left field and Kaz Matsui learning second base (not to mention showing none of the defensive prowess last year he was alleged to have had in Japan), the Mets need a glovemaster at first base. I've been a proponent of this since November. I like the idea of someone like John Olerud scooping up whatever the young infield throws at him. That can only help Matsui, Jose Reyes and David Wright improve and gain confidence. I'd be happy to see Olerud come back to Shea, riding the 7 train again from Manhattan on gamedays. But it sounds like the Mets are on the verge of sending a Class A minor-leaguer and some cash to Boston for Doug Mientkiewicz and his baseball. ("Have you seen my baseball? Have you seen my baseball?") That would be a fine deal, too. Travis Lee is the worst option of the three, but he'd fill the void. Sorry, Jason Phillips, but you're strictly the backup catcher now. Maybe if you had hit .300 and knocked 15 or 20 balls out of the park you'd have a shot at a platoon or something.

What I don't understand about ESPN's coverage of Delgado's signing is the graphic that asked if Florida was now the NL's best team. I don't see how that's even a question because you can't even pinpoint the top team in the NL East, and even if you could, do any of them match up with the Cardinals? Maybe Florida has the edge in that fantasy category -- on paper -- but the lineup suffers a severe drop after the top five (Juan Pierre, Luis Castillo, Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Delgado, Mike Lowell). The rotation has nothing but question marks after A.J. Burnett. Can Dontrelle Willis pitch like he did in 2003 more than he did in 2004? Can Josh Beckett stay healthy? Can Al Leiter get through the fifth inning in less than 100 pitches? Can their rotation match up with the Mets'? Ismael Valdez vs. Victor Zambrano? Will Guillermo Mota have any trouble adjusting to the closer's role? Will they suffer a dropoff with him out of the setup role?

I think that until the Marlins get into camp, and perhaps not until they get through a month of the season, they've got too many things to figure out before you can think of them as the best team in the NL. The same goes for the Mets, and that's only whether or not you can consider them a playoff contender. Well, I think you can consider them a contender; they should be in it late into the season. But without a better bullpen, they'll end up fading in September, if not sooner.

On the 15th day of Christmas, the Mets gave to me ...

It was a few days after Epiphany, the Eastern Orthodox Christmas, but yesterday had that feeling of Christmas morning. Had he come overnight? Had midnight led to the most sought-after free agent toy being laid beneath the Mets' tree? I woke up Sunday morning and rushed to the warm glow of ESPN to see if the midnight deadline for Carlos Beltran to resign with the Houston Astros had come and gone without any word of a deal. Indeed, the morning reports were certain that he wasn't going back to Texas, leaving the Mets as the primary suitor.

The Mets got their Alex Rodriguez. Certainly, they'd be in better shape these days had Steve Phillips not screwed up four years ago with the made-up claims of Rodriguez' and Scott Boras' outrageous demands. Beltran wasn't as big a free-agent as Rodriguez, who is one of the two best right-handed hitters in the game (Albert Pujols) and, at the time, was one of the best defensive shortstops in the game (now a mute point). Beltran is, however, one of the best defensive centerfielders (the Mets now have two, with Mike Cameron likely moving to right) and probably the best switch-hitter in the game today. He's a true five-tool player and the kind of in-his-prime cornerstone the Mets need.

Indeed, they haven't had this kind 0f top-of-the-line impact player since they acquired Mike Piazza in 1998 and two years later, they had surrounded him with the support needed to make a World Series run. Now, Piazza is one of the aging veterans on his way out. The starting rotation has three such pitchers in Pedro Martinez, Tom Glavine and Steve Trachsel, followed by two up-and-coming youngsters (Kris Benson, Victor Zambrano) whom the Mets hope turn the corner with that kind of veteran leadership from which to learn. In the field, first base is still a weak link unless Jason Phillips can hit closer to .280 with 15 or (longshot here) 20 home runs instead of .220 with a dozen dingers. But the rest of the infield has relatively young, promising players in Kaz Matsui, Jose Reyes and David Wright. The outfield corners have Cameron and the dangerous but fragile Cliff Floyd, one of whom is a likely candidate to be dealt if any deals happen between now and opening day.

I'm not getting ahead of myself just yet. The Mets aren't going too far this year, not with the bullpen they have. Other than Braden Looper as the closer, I'm not sure any slot in the relief corps is decided. Felix Heredia? Please. He'll be lucky to serve a day as the left-handed setup man. By Memorial Day, he'll be handling long relief mop-up duty in blowouts.

This has been the most exciting, active offseason I can remember in a long time and it just has me more excited for those mid-February pitchers-and-catchers reporting dates.

Round and round he goes, where Beltran lands nobody knows

Nearly five years ago, Dennis Quaid and Jesus — OK, fine, James Caviezel — starred in a baseball movie that wasn't a baseball movie. Frequency was a father/son tale using the Mets' 1969 world championship as a backdrop. Now, another screenwriter has found inspiration in the other Mets championship, the one they won in 1986.

Game 6, which will premiere later this month at the Sundance Film Festival, appears to be another baseball-as-backdrop movie, despite what the title will have you believe. It also may turn out to be more of a Red Sox movie than a Mets movie, according to that aforelinked description on the Sundance site. (And at least this one won't have the in-production backlash that the sight of Jimmy Fallon and Drew Barrymore filming on the field during Boston's celebration in St. Louis has sparked. About that: depending on how it's edited, how can that be believable? Fans don't rush the field anymore these days — the last I can remember was when the Mets clinched the division in '86 — and when they do, a lot more than two make it to the infield.) But with Michael Keaton, Robert Downey Jr., Bebe Neuwirth and Catherine O'Hara, it's got to be picked up and distributed by somebody.

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My gut feeling on Carlos Beltran right now is that he'll go back to Houston. I even signed a petition shortly after the Astros' season ended to plead that he remain in Texas ... before the Mets became a player, of course. I just wanted him to stay far, far away from the Bronx. Obviously, we'll know if he's going back there within he next 31 hours, since he has to sign with the Astros by midnight tomorrow.

But I'm still wary of the Yankees. I won't buy that they're out of it until 1.) Scott Boras names the teams who have made offers, and the Yanks aren't one of them, or 2.) Beltran shows up at a press conference and dons a hat that's not a Yankee hat or a jersey that's not a Yankee jersey.

Murray Chass of The New York Times speculated today that George Steinbrenner might have simply told his staff to say the Yankees had no interest, intending to swoop in at the 11th hour. It was Chass, I believe, who first started the talk last weekend that the Yankees had no interest, and Buster Olney of ESPN.com (and/or The Magazine) has also said he thinks they are going to take a pass. But my thinking is that if they really had made the decision to go after Beltran but try to do it quietly, it would get out somehow, despite Steinbrenner's wishes. There is only a certain number of people who can keep a secret about something before the media gets a hold of it.

There's also been some discussion lately that Beltran's not really worth what Boras is demanding. But a look at the list of similar players (scroll down below the boxes for "Appearances on Leaderboards and Awards") shows one Hall of Famer in Dave Winfield, another power/speed outfielder in Bobby Bonds, and a borderline Hall candidate in Andre Dawson. Most telling, as Tim Kurjian points out in that first link, is that his walks have increased in the last four years while his strikeouts have dipped to the point where he's nearly at a 1:1 ratio. He most likely won't hit 40 home runs as a Met, but he'll get on base and run, and he'll cut off so many doubles in the gap at Shea.

The Mets would probably have to overpay to get him, but that's what they need to do. I'd be happy with it, but I just don't know if it's going to get to that. Houston's my gut feeling, but if we haven't heard of it by Sunday morning, there very well could be a new No. 15 in Queens.

Unless, you know, the Yanks are playing possum.

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Wade Boggs will go into the Hall wearing a Red Sox cap. It wasn't really too hard to predict. It's the right move by the Hall.

Doug Mientkiewicz, however, doesn't understand the concept. He's not giving the Red Sox the ball he caught from Keith Foulke for the final out of the World Series. (Of course, if Foulke were smart enough on his feet, he would've run the ball to first base himself for the final out, keeping it in his glove the whole time.) It would be one thing if Mientkiewicz came up with the Red Sox or maybe even played with them the whole season. I'm more inclined to think that Nomar Garciaparra has more of a claim to the ball than Mientkiewicz, who was only in the game as a defensive replacement. (Apparently Terry Francona learned from John McNamara what can happen when you leave a first baseman in for the final out for sentimental reasons.)

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Since I love to make predictions, here are my quick picks for the NFL's wild-card weekend:

I would like to see the Jets win, but I think with the way they struggled at the end of the season, with Chad Pennington's recovering shoulder and with San Diego at home, it won't happen. Might come close, they might cover, but I think it's the Chargers, 28-24.

In Seattle, I don't like either team. I could go with St. Louis, because they've had the Seahawks' number; or I could go with the home team, because can one 8-8 team beat another three times in one season? If Shaun Alexander can control the clock, Seattle probably wins. But I like St. Louis' weapons and scoring potential as a whole, so I say the Rams, 31-26.

On the semi-frozen tundra of Lambeau Field (gameday high expected to be 35 degrees), I don't have the same misgivings about the Packers-Vikings divisional matchup threepeat. Minnesota has won something like two of its last 12 games outdoors. Daunte Culpepper may do The Roll after a touchdown to Randy Moss, but it's Brett Favre and the Packers who roll on, 38-30.

I'm a fan of the scoring this opening weekend, aren't I? I'm probably not the only one. Take away everything else in the Indianapolis-Denver matchup on Sunday except for three things: Peyton Manning, Jake Plummer and the RCA Dome. Is there any way you can envision Plummer beating Manning inside? Neither can I: Colts, 42-21.

Game 5s: Walking off

Yesterday's games:
Red Sox 5, Yankees 4, 14 innings
Astros 3, Cardinals 0

Astros lead series 3-2
Watching the other game while working tonight, we didn't flip over to check on this one at all. So when it came over to Fox, we saw the scoreless game featuring two one-hitters -- an amazing pitching duel, the kind of games that quickly become postseason classics. After Brad Lidge easily dispatched of the top of the St. Louis order, striking out Larry Walker and Albert Pujols, I saw that Carlos Beltran was leading off the ninth. "This is it," I said to my co-workers. Sure enough, Beltran led off with a single and stole second -- his first in the series, making him 31-for-31 since joining Houston -- after Jeff Bagwell flied out to center. With first base now open, Lance Berkman was walked, and then Jeff Kent ended it with a three-run shot to left. Now the Astros return to St. Louis needing one of the two games to head to their first World Series. The belief is that they will pitch Roger Clemens in Game 6 on Wednesday on three days' rest. His numbers in such situations isn't good throughout his career, but can Phil Garner really go with Pete Munro in a potential clincher? He's in a tight spot, one in which he will probably be second-guessed either way. Perhaps the better option is to send Munro out there -- he allowed three runs on six hits in 4 2/3 in Game 2, which isn't horrible -- and, if a Game 7 is needed, start Clemens on full rest and have Roy Oswalt (then on three days' rest) available out of the bullpen as a bridge to Lidge. Or, if Clemens is strong, Oswalt can be saved to start Game 1 of the Series. One thing's for sure: No matter how much Garner's moves have been questioned, they've still gotten the Astros within one win of the World Series.

Yankees lead series 3-2
How exciting and intense would this series have been if it hadn't started out 3-0 for New York? There is definitely some electricity and excitement buzzing around Boston right now, but how much momentum do they really have? Both games were won in extra innings, so it's not like the Red Sox rode a wave of emotion and fan support and breezed through Games 4 and 5. There were times in both games when Fenway came across on TV like the 18th green at the Masters, only with less anticipation and hope in the air. Despite these two nail-biting wins, there's still that feeling that the Sox are merely putting off the inevitable. Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated, for one, felt like Boston could win two at home and bring the series back to New York, and under other circumstances, they'd still be considered to have a chance. But seeing as how no team has ever come back from 0-3, the order in which they've won these games is what has Yankee fans still feeling somewhat confident. But there's this: If Curt Schilling does pitch Game 6, and if he can get over his ankle injury -- if it really is comfortable enough to not be a factor -- then it's down to a winner-take-all seventh game in which anything can happen. It won't, but there have to be some normally pessimistic Red Sox fans who are at least a little bit excited at the prospects.

On to the ALCS

Yesterday's game:
Astros 12, Braves 3

Astros win series, 3-2
Thirteen division titles -- or whatever it is -- and one measly World Series victory to show for it. This has got to be the worst dynasty ever. Watch: the first team to win the division other than the Braves will probably go on to win the Series. Atlanta's inevitable crumbling aside, how big is that Carlos Beltran trade now? The fans of Houston won't care if he signs with the Cubs or Red Sox or Yankees this winter if the Astros win the World Series. I think both the players and fans in Houston and Boston know that it's this year or, like, 2007, when they can come back with some seasoned younger players mixed in with a new crop of veterans. Guys like Lance Berkman, Roy Oswalt, Wade Miller, Brad Lidge and Andy Pettitte will still be around (even if they're not now, in the case of Miller and Pettitte) then, but this is the last best chance for Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Jeff Kent and Roger Clemens. The Astros, who took 10 of the 18 meetings with the Cardinals this season, will have to earn a split in St. Louis with the likes of Brandon Backe and Pete Munro. There's a chance. Each team has swept a series on the road this season. Could Backe be this postseason's Josh Beckett or John Lackey? Then that sets up Clemens and Oswalt for starts at home in Games 3 and 4, and also leaves one available to start (and the other to relieve?) in a potential Game 7. I'm sticking with my Cardinals pick in the upcoming series, but just like in the ALCS, I can see Houston riding the wave at least one more step.

This afternoon in New York, "Paul Revere" was to ride through Times Square announcing that the Red Sox were coming. The Red Sox are coming! I think it was a stunt by ESPN Radio (that's where I heard the announcement, tacked on to the end of a "SportsCenter" update), and while the excitement of the rivalry and the buzz about town is great -- I love that stuff -- I hate it when they bastardize things and screw up history. There are two things about this series for which this Paul Revere stunt might apply: The Red Sox wear red coats, just as the British soldiers did, and they're from Boston. That's it. He's a Boston figure, and if anyone gets to have him ride through the streets in a contemporary call to arms, it's the people of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Revere warned of the enemy coming to Boston, not Boston invading New Amsterdam. I once commissioned a cartoon from the artist of our campus newspaper to draw Paul Revere riding through the streets of Boston shouting, "The Irish are coming! The Irish are coming!" in advance of a Notre Dame-Boston College game. Now, that was clever.

Postseason thoughts, Day 2

Yesterday's games:
Astros 9, Braves 3
Yankees 7, Twins 6, 12 innings
Red Sox 8, Angels 3

Astros lead series 1-0
Early in the season, when Roger Clemens was something like 9-0, I didn't want to think he was still that dominant. I figured a lot of it had to do with changing leagues and facing lineups who had never seen him and his impressive splitter. As the Astros faded, he didn't get the same press, and I look up his numbers in September, and he's 18-4. OK, that's good. He may have struggled yesterday, but he got out of those jams. He may be a bit of an ass, but he's from Texas. A lot of people are. At least he's a little more likable, and more subdued, than Barry Bonds. I can enjoy watching Clemens set milestones. But the Braves are in trouble. They've never drawn well, so they gave fans who purchased tickets to yesterday's game free tickets to today's game, just to fill seats. Yeah, great fans they have in Atlanta. But Carlos Beltran showed why he'll be the most coveted free agent this winter. Since the all-star break, when the Astros were just 44-44 and struggling, he hit only .257, with 17 home runs and 41 RBI. But he improved his strikeout-to-walk ratio ever so slightly (51 Ks to 45 walks pre-break, 50-47 afterwards) and upped his on-base percentage 5 points to .370. The biggest difference, however, was his aggressiveness on the bases: 27 post-break steals to 15 before the midsummer classic. And all three of his caught stealings came in the first half. But it's Clemens I keep coming back to, and if Roy Oswalt mimics Rocket's output, hometown boy Brandon Backe will have a chance for another big -- and historic -- win in Game 3 in Houston.

Twins-Yankees series tied 1-1
As much as the Yankees and their fans would have talked calmly and acted cooly if they had gone down 0-2 -- "We've just got to take it one game at a time"; "We've been here before"; etc. -- this team would have been in trouble going to Minnesota in such a hole. Sure, it was a big win for the Twins too, which is why Ron Gardenhire had his closer out there to finish off the game in his third inning of work. It's just that I don't get why he was out there in the 10th to begin with. Gardenhire said he left Nathan in for his third inning after the Twins had taken a 6-5 lead on Torii Hunter's home run off Tanyon Sturtze because he "didn't like our options" left in the bullpen. When you're on the road, you know you're going to have to protect a lead with the home team getting one last at-bat, so why was Nathan in there in a tie game to begin with? When the Yankees rallied, he had to bring someone in after Nathan, so why couldn't J.C. Romero have started the 10th? If he got into trouble, then Gardenhire could've brought Nathan in to get out of a jam. The Yankees were lucky to come away with this one. Mariano Rivera faltered again, and Sturtze, who was one of the relievers the team was talking up as having finished the season strong, would have been the losing pitcher. Now the question is: How will Kevin Brown pitch? He's obviously not Joe Torre's first choice, or the decision would have been announced earlier than yesterday. This may seem like an obvious expectation, but my feeling is Brown will either get shelled and not make it through the third, or he'll be brilliant and scatter four hits over seven.

Red Sox lead series 2-0
It's over. Boston isn't the Oakland A's, the Red Sox are not going to blow a 2-0 lead. There's a very slim chance this series will even get back to California. It might not make it to Saturday. Pedro sure sounds like a different pitcher now, far from the "the Yankees are my daddy" comments two weeks ago. "I was the No. 1 today, and that's all that matters," said Martinez, 0-4 with a 7.72 ERA to finish the season. "I don't care what the experts have to say, they were talking trash. Every time they give me the ball, I'm special." The Red Sox may have celebrated their postseason-clinching victory in Tampa Bay (while the Yankees like to talk about how they don't make a big deal out of postseason appearances because that's expected and their goal is to win the World Series), but Boston is playing like a calm, confident, focused team determined to be one of the last two playing this season. Bronson Arroyo might not scare many as the opposing pitcher in an elimination game, but are Angels fans really confident with Kelvim Escobar as their savior? In Boston, which might be the biggest home-field advantage this side of the Metrodome? I'm not so sure about that one.

My take on the Carlos Beltran trade

I sat here on the couch last night watching the Astros-Pirates game on my MLB Extra Innings package when the play-by-play man made the announcement:

"The Astros have acquired Carlos Beltran in a two-team deal with the Kansas City Royals."

He said it with all the enthusiasm of announcing the daily lottery numbers. That surprised me. I would've expected more excitement at acquiring the A-Rod of the outfield.

You know, C-Belt.

(And seriously, what is it with the Astros and their "Killer Bs"? Biggio, Bagwell, Berkman, now Beltran? They used to have David Bell in that mix. They traded catching prospect John Buck in the deal, who very well could've become another one. If they were in the American League, they'd probably get Barry Bonds in another year.)

For about an hour, I fretted. I own Octavio Dotel in my primary fantasy league. I kicked myself at not acting on my urge a month ago to try to acquire setup man Brad Lidge, a player I covet not only for his ability, but because he was drafted out of Notre Dame as the Astros' first-round pick in 1998. I searched the rosters, considering possible trades, coming back to some deals I considered proposing weeks ago. Dotel in Kansas City wouldn't have been that bad. He wasn't getting too many save chances with the 37-34 Astros; or at least they were sporadic. I read an analysis earlier in the season that proved that better teams -- winning teams -- do not necessarily get more save opportunities than bad ones. But I just didn't feel as comfortable with Octavio Dotel, Royals closer as I did with Octavio Dotel, Astros closer.

Then, just after Houston GM Gerry Hunsicker left the booth, the announcer came back with the same low-key monotone:

"Octavio Dotel is now an Athletic. The Royals have turned around and traded him to Oakland for third-base prospect Mark Teahen and pitcher Mike Wood."

Whew. Now I feel better. Octavio Dotel, A's closer. That's better. Oakland has done well with closers during their successful run these past few years. There's a winning attitude around that clubhouse, and with a reliable pitcher at the back of the bullpen, they've thrived. Arthur Rhodes is not a reliable pitcher at the back of the bullpen, that's been their problem this year. The only problem I could foresee is that Oakland no longer has pitching coach Rick Peterson -- he's in New York now, helping the Mets to the best ERA in the majors.

But as for the Astros, they made out well in this deal. They gave up one young closer who has struggled just a bit this year, but certainly looks like he's on his way to being a reliable stopper. They traded a catching prospect who likely would've replaced Brad Ausmus next year, but he's not a sure thing. And they got a five-tool player, even if it's only for three months. In dealing Richard Hidalgo for David Weathers last week, Houston got itself another reliable setup man who can step into the seventh/eighth inning role vacated by Lidge now that he's coming on in the ninth.

What makes it such a great move for the Astros is perhaps more than any team outside Boston, they're built to win Now. You hear that a lot, but no where is it more true than Minute Maid Park. Bagwell and Biggio are not getting any younger, faster or healthier. Who knows if Robot Roger Clemens will return next season -- or if he'll have the same amazing success? Their pitching staff, outside Clemens and Weathers, is on the young side, and when Clemens does retire, Andy Pettitte can assume the experienced veteran leader role. Taylor Buchholz, acquired in the Billy Wagner trade, could very well become a No. 3/4 starter someday. But the bulk of the offense is aging, and replacing Bagwell, Biggio, Ausmus and Jeff Kent will be the more pressing needs in the coming seasons.

If Houston is going to win its first playoff series -- ever -- it will need to make a run with this team.