Someone like Jose

OK, so Jose Reyes' departure snapped me out of my (unintended) blogging hiatus. I found it in myself to read more posts on Reyes from some other blogs over the past two days. I always appreciate good writing, even when it's tough to stomach. Maybe even more in those cases ...

Well-written (psycho)analysis from Ted Berg

A true fan's view from Paul Hadsall (who I owe a belated thank you for acknowledging me in his Thanksgiving post). He also looks at what Marlins bloggers are saying.

Wonderful sarcasm from Mets Police

A pragmatic look from Brad Bortone

 Vinny Cartiglia has fans' reactions on Twitter over at Metsblog.

And a collection from the folks at Amazin' Avenue ...

Matthew Callan knows it hurts

Eric Simon helps you decide who to blame

Chris McShane channels The Simpsons

And, finally, Amazin' Avenue's Applesauce presents a roundup of even more coverage. I've linked to the whole post because it gave me the idea for the (intentionally cheesy) photo presentation below.

Adios

I wasn't sure I was going to write about Jose Reyes. I thought about just letting this day go by without weighing in, without dwelling on it, and just try to focus on other things -- fantasy football, bowl season, Christmas -- in the hopes that I might miss any press conferences or introductions in order to lessen the impact. Then, before I knew it, it would be Opening Day and, so what? It's like he wasn't even here.

But that, of course, is not possible. Reyes is arguably the most dynamic player the Mets have ever developed and he sure was fun to watch. He loves the game, he has fun, and his smile shows that. If he's on your team, you can't help but root for him. If he's on the other team, you really want to beat him. And that's what makes this new destination, in South Florida, all the more perplexing. A few years ago, when the Phillies and their fans complained about what they perceived as Reyes showboating, the Marlins also got in on that meme. (Ironically, if you google "Jose Reyes showboat," you find a lot of Phillies blogs slamming him, particularly in '08 -- as well as several advocating that the team sign him this offseason.) I always felt the Marlins had no ground to stand on with that complaint, because Hanley Ramirez has never been known to put his head down and run out a double. And now they've gone and signed the guy they think has a little too much fun out there.

I'm certainly torn between wishing Reyes well and hoping his contract becomes an albatross to the Marlins. I like the guy, and good for him for getting his payday. And the Mets, if Sandy Alderson is being truthful, made a competitive offer, which is all I could hope for out of this scenario. Well, yes, I hoped the Mets would re-sign the guy, but not at six guaranteed years and something north of $100 million. I think their alleged offer of five years in the $90 million range, with a sixth-year option to push it over $100 million, was a competitive offer. But Reyes clearly wanted the guaranteed money -- and potential to reach the playoffs. Yes, let's be honest here, the Mets are looking like the worst team in the NL East for 2012, despite what looks to be a wide-open division. It's too early to say who the favorite is, because a lot of player movement is still to come, but I can't envision the Mets being better than any of the other four clubs.

But does Reyes push the Marlins over the top? I'm not so sure. He's averaged just 98 games the past three years, and his addition means franchise player Hanley Ramirez will have to move to third base. Good luck smoothing that one over, Ozzie Guillen. The club's ace, Josh Johnson, didn't pitch after May 16 this past season, and despite all the Phillies' other holes, the front of their rotation is still solid, so the Marlins can't match that. I will say this, though: For once, the expectations of the Marlins' ownership may be justified, for the first time since about 2003. They've set the bar too high in recent years and run off a couple of good managers as a result of inflated hopes. But as I said, it's early. These Marlins are looking to spend like hedge-fund managers during the Bush years. They may add more important pieces, which would change the outlook. But building a team through free agency rarely works. Teams tend to have better track records with a successful core that is then supplemented by free-agent pieces to fill the holes. The Marlins' holes are more than a shortstop -- and not even that -- and a closer.

I could be wrong. Time will tell. These are just the initial thoughts and feelings not even 24 hours after a guy we've come to love watching out there left for a team only a mother could love.

Adios.

My All-Star ballot

I like to look at the All-Star Game as a yearly event, an annual summertime look at the best players in the game that year. I'm not into career achievements or voting for a guy each year just because he's a perennial starter at his position. Just because a guy like Alex Avila wasn't a starter before this year and wasn't known outside of Detroit and AL-only fantasy owners shouldn't be held against him in voting.

I also lean toward voting for players who have been on the field, guys who have stayed healthy all year. There have been times where a simple 15-day DL stint -- on, healed, and off; no setbacks or 20-day absences -- can be overlooked, particularly if it came earlier in the season (like April). But if it comes down to two players with similar numbers, or one guy might have the same stats as another if he had only stayed healthy, I'm voting for the guy who did stay healthy. Plus, if a guy's DL stint was more recent -- say June, even into July -- I'm probably not going to punch (or click) his name.

The reasons are simple: I want to see the best in the game right now, as in this year, this half-season, facing off on the second Tuesday in July. And if that means a guy at 80 percent not going to the game, I'm OK with that. I'd rather my vote go to a deserving guy who gets to play in the game than for a player named the starter who then backs out of the game because of an injury.

Over the past few years, I've tended to wait until the final days before filling out my maximum allotment of 25 ballots (per e-mail address) at MLB.com. As two friends and I were trading e-mails the other day discussing various decisions at certain positions, I wondered if we were treating this like a student leaving his term paper until the final weekend before it's due. Matt saw it another way, which I then realized was actually the truth: "As for doing this on the last week, I don't consider that being lazy, I consider it performing due diligence and not succumbing to the herd mentality that pervades at ESPN and other sports news outlets."

So having taken advantage of the technology and used a full 81 games (for most players) to consider their statistical -- and, in some cases, non-statistical, because there are some guys you just want to see play as often as you can -- output, here are the quick hits on those I vote for this year. (I'm not going to bother with filling out full team rosters. I may or may not post some thoughts on the actual squads when they're unveiled on Sunday and offer reserves then.)

A few final notes on the game, rosters, voting, etc.: 1.) I hate that the game counts, always have. It's an exhibition, and by definition shouldn't have any bearing on how the yearly champion is determined. 2.) I don't like being a fan of a game in which utility players are All-Stars. Nothing against Omar Infante as a man, but he's not an All-Star. The fact that Charlie Manuel felt a need to have a guy who could play so many positions on his team last year in the event it went extra innings pained me as a fan. 3.) I'm a National League guy and don't care for the designated hitter, but I'm glad they're using it in every All-Star Game now. If baseball were a DH-less sport, I'd be OK with watching pitchers hit in an exhibition. But really, who needs to see Justin Verlander stand there with a bat on his shoulder against Roy Halladay? Plus, the fact that they're now bending the rules to allow the DH in National League parks makes it more ridiculous that they're making this game count for anything. 4.) I'm only considering players on the actual ballot, which as we all know is so rigorously -- and somewhat insanely -- determined mostly by Opening Day lineups. There are exceptions made (see "Utley, C. - PHI" under National League second base), but not enough.

OK, the ballot (which remains open until 11:59 p.m. ET tonight):

AMERICAN LEAGUE

1B: Adrian Gonzalez. He's batting 100 points higher than Mark Teixeira, has scored more runs and driven in more. Plus, he can play right field! Now that's a utility All-Star.

2B: Robinson Cano. He's got the numbers across the board at the position. Solid all around, where other candidates lag behind Cano in one or two categories, sometimes significantly.

SS: Asdrubal Cabrera. This is where my beliefs on "career All-Stars" come in. Sorry, Jeter, not this year. A couple of weeks ago, Asdrubal was a slam-dunk runaway choice. Some arguments could be made for a few other candidates, Jhonny Peralta among them (but not Jeter), but Asdrubal's significant advantages in runs and stolen bases lift him over Peralta.

3B: Adrian Beltre. I debated this choice for a while, and I'm still not sure of it. I gave Beltre the edge over Alex Rodriguez because Beltre is a better fielder. Sure, he has a few more errors, but he gets to more balls, has more putouts and assists and has been a part of more double plays. Can't really go wrong with either, or Kevin Youkilis for that matter.

C: Alex Avila. Really, it's not even close. Better numbers at the plate, better numbers behind it. Avila's thrown out 38 percent of would-be base-stealers, catching 22 the last time I looked, second only to Kurt Suzuki's 23. And Avila got Jose Reyes today by a solid margin, only the sixth time Reyes has been nabbed this year.

DH: David Ortiz. In a landslide. Whatever, it's the DH.

OF: Jose Bautista, Curtis Granderson, Jacoby Ellsbury. Bautista and Granderson are no-brainers. Ellsbury was a more deliberated choice. Adam Jones would be worthy, too, especially when you consider his defense.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

1B: Prince Fielder. He's putting up the monster numbers in a contract year that everyone expected to see from Albert Pujols.

2B: Rickie Weeks. Looks like he's finally put it all together. It's fun to watch him play. One thing I didn't realize about him until I saw him up close at Yankee Stadium this week: his upper body is big, especially for a middle infielder. He wears a more tapered jersey than Fielder does, but their upper torsos are more alike than not. If it weren't Weeks, it'd be Brandon Phillips. And if it weren't Phillips? Probably Neil Walker. Other than the batting average, he's got some solid numbers at the position.

SS: Jose Reyes. Go ahead, just try to make a case for anyone else. No one compares to Reyes this year. I love Troy Tulowitzki, but he disappeared pretty much for the month of May. Reyes has 42 multihit games (out of 78 played) and, after the Mets played their 81st today, is on pace for 242 hits, 130 runs, 30 freaking triples and 60 stolen bases. Oh yeah, and he leads the Majors with a .353 batting average and is putting up a .397 OBP and .529 SLG, for a .926 OPS. He's 12th in baseball in OPS. Not bad for a leadoff hitter and shortstop. In fact, the 11 above him are all outfielders, first basemen or David Ortiz. I may have more on Reyes in another post soon, but I think he's now the one the Mets have to keep (and, sadly, maybe David Wright is the one who is allowed to go if both can't be career Mets). And Fred Wilpon had it backwards: Carl Crawford wouldn't get Jose Reyes money.

3B: Aramis Ramirez. With David Wright and Ryan Zimmerman hurt for much of the first half, this is the weakest position of them all. There's no clear frontrunner (sorry, I just can't get behind Placido Polanco as the best third baseman in the NL this year) and the stats are anemic. Wright is still tied for third among NL third baseman with his six home runs, one behind Chipper Jones and three behind Ramirez.

C: Brian McCann. You could have a great debate about the second-best catcher in the Senior Circuit.

OF: Ryan Braun, Matt Kemp and Voter's Choice. The first two are as easy as McCann and Reyes. Kemp is 20-20 already, with 22 home runs and 22 stolen bases, and is batting .331. He's currently second in the NL in batting average, first in home runs and third in RBIs -- he's got a legitimate shot at the Triple Crown (if Reyes' batting average comes down a little). But the third guy? Take your pick from Carlos Beltran, Carlos Gonzalez, Chris Young, Andrew McCutchen, Lance Berkman, Justin Upton or Drew Stubbs. I can't decide how to separate them.

So there they are: the 17 players I'd like to see take the field in Phoenix a week from Tuesday. We'll find out who gets to go on Sunday.

Getting 3,000 in New York

So now it looks like Derek Jeter's return to the Yankees lineup may be delayed, which would further delay his march to 3,000 hits and reduce the likelihood that he records the milestone hit against the Mets at Citi Field during their July 1-3 Interleague series.

And I think that's a shame.

No, really. I think it would have been a good thing to have happen not just at the Mets' home ballpark, but in New York in general. Not only has no Yankee ever reached the 3,000-hit threshold, but none of the 27 players who have already gotten there collected the milestone in New York.

If Jeter is able to be activated from the disabled list on Wednesday, the first day he's eligible to return, he'd have two games at home and three at Citi Field to collect the six hits he needs. Any delay in his activation obviously affects the timetable, increasing the chances that the lasting images of No. 3,000 will feature Jeter in the road grays and a respectful but half-hearted ovation from the home crowd. After Citi Field, the Yankees play three in Cleveland before finishing out the first half at home against the Rays. If he doesn't get it before the All-Star break, the Yankees open the second half with eight on the road -- four each at Toronto and Tampa Bay. Granted, Tropicana Field is a home away from home for the Yankees, but do we really want to be left with images of a base hit on bright green synthetic turf and a shadowy, artifically lit photo of Jeter doffing his helmet under a closed roof?

Getting the hit at Citi Field might be good for the Mets -- and their fans -- as well. Imagine Fred Wilpon watching that ovation from all the Yankee fans in the house, perhaps supported by a respectful cheer from the Mets partisans as well. Then, Wilpon might look over at Jose Reyes at shortstop or imagine David Wright healthy and standing at third base. If Jeter's getting such a rousing ovation for getting his 3,000th hit in the home of the Mets, imagine what the roar of the crowd would be if Reyes or Wright did the same sometime around 2022. Maybe Carl Crawford isn't worth Reyes money.

Entering this year, Reyes averaged 140 hits per season -- which takes into account his injury history -- which would mean he'd eclipse 3,000 sometime during his 22nd year in the big leagues. That's certainly a stretch, considering how important his speed is to his game and the demanding position he plays. But considering the tear he is on this season -- on pace for 231 hits entering tonight's game in Texas -- and his reduced strikeout rate, perhaps he's finally put it all together and, barring injuries, could average significantly more than 140 per year through the rest of his prime. Should he finish 2011 with 231 hits, he'd be at 1,350 and his yearly average would be 150 per season. At that rate, he'd get to 3,000 right at the end of his 20th year. Having just passed his 28th birthday this month, Reyes would be 39 at the end of his 20th season in the Majors. (Looking at Reyes' healthiest and most productive peak thus far, the four seasons from 2005-08, he averaged 159 games and 194 hits per year, so when he's not on the DL, he's much closer to a 190/200-hit-per-year pace than 140/150.)

While it's certainly unlikely, it's not unprecedented for a player known more for speed than power -- since World War II -- to last long enough in the game to get there. Lou Brock did it at 40 in his 19th and final season (he averaged 187 per year). And contact hitters Tony Gwynn, Wade Boggs, Pete Rose and Rod Carew all got there without being long-ball or stolen-base threats. Roberto Clemente could fit into that group as well; he never hit 30 home runs in a season and finished with 240, fewer than Robin Yount or Craig Biggio (and more than Rose, Brock, Gwynn, Boggs, Carew and several early-century guys). And Reyes' .290 career batting average bests Rafael Palmeiro (.288), Eddie Murray (.287), Carl Yastrzemski (.285), Yount (.285), Dave Winfield (.283), Biggio (.281), Rickey Henderson (.279) and Cal Ripken (.276).

Obviously, Reyes will have to make some tweaks and adapt his game as he gets older, but if this year is any indication, perhaps he can become continue his improvements and remain a solid contact hitter and on-base threat. And maybe a switch to first or second base or the outfield down the line will allow him to play long enough to get to 3,000 hits. I'm not saying it's probable, but I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility.

For the love of ... the game

Enjoying BP

I haven't felt an urge to write here in a few weeks because football -- specifically, college; more specifically, Notre Dame -- has begun and I find myself somewhat playing out the string when it comes to baseball. I'm still invested in it, seeing if the Rays can outlast the Yankees for the AL East (though what incentive does either team have to win the division?), if the Padres can hold on in the NL West, if the Rockies can make it another magical September and if the Braves really are the lesser of two very different but equally annoying and sickening evils in the NL East.

But with the Mets' season now a matter of whether they can get to 82 wins (not quite qualifying as "games that matter in September"), the discussion here in the blogosphere has naturally turned to next year. (And annoying, only-a-story-because-it's-New-York, off-the-field stuff like where the players go when they're in Washington.) We all know Jerry Manuel won't get a new contract when this one runs out, but I don't see him getting fired before the end of the season unless the Mets want to bring in Wally Backman for a seven-game tryout on the final homestand. (I just think it's unlikely they'll want to pay Manuel not to manage, even for a week.)

We don't know when Johan will pitch again, so I'm just going to try not to think about that. And it seems a given that Luis Castillo won't be on the team, one way or another, in 2011, if for no other reason than his contract is the easiest to eat out of Castillo, Oliver Perez and Carlos Beltran. (Personally, I would be fine with having Beltran next year, because I think of the three, he's the only one who can come close to a return on his salary, but without Johan, there's little point, so might as well see who'll give up what for him.)

There's one thing, though, that I keep reading here and there that really turns me off and makes me consider unsubscribing from all the Mets blogs I read and people I follow on Twitter -- trading Jose Reyes (and, though much less speculated, David Wright). I understand there's a difference between "listening to offers for a guy" and actively shopping him or considering a trade, but that's not what I'm talking about here. I'm talking about the posts that say Reyes has to go, that he's part of the problem and won't be part of the nucleus of a Mets playoff team during this decade. His enthusiasm and love for the game aside (how can you not smile when he gets up from a slide into third on a triple and claps his hands violently?), there aren't that many comparable leadoff hitters or shortstops who could replace him, let alone one player who could do both. The Mets are lucky in that they do have another leadoff option in Angel Pagan, but the lineup could be that much deeper if both are on the team. In fact, as of this writing, they have eerily similar stats, despite the fact that Reyes has played in 18 fewer games. With their problems on offense, the Mets can't afford to look for a good-field, no-hit shortstop -- especially if Ruben Tejada might be next year's second baseman.

Trading Reyes is the kind of move that would make me reconsider my allegiance to this team. (Trading Wright might just make me give up on the spot.) I love baseball and enjoy Citi Field too much to stop going, but on some days, the inaction by the front office or the refusal to acknowledge reality has me smirking at the crowds I see on TV. Yet, every February, just when winter's wrath starts to get old and even Florida seems inviting, I begin to think about Opening Day and can't bring myself to snap the string of attending the Mets' first game of the season in Queens. And so long as Nos. 7 and 5 are out there on the left side of the infield, I'll keep enjoying that day.

Why not Tejada?

Opening Day is less than two weeks away, and Jose Reyes will be back on the field in Port St. Lucie tomorrow to resume baseball activities, so we all know we'll be cheering Angel Pagan at the top of the order at Citi Field on April 5. What we don't know is who we'll be cheering at shortstop.

The likely answer to that query is veteran Alex Cora, but I'm starting to read more in support of giving 20-year-old Ruben Tejada a shot from the start. I can't disagree with any of those points, particularly in that there's no shame in failure. Give him a shot from the start, and if he's in over his head after a week, 10 days, two weeks, send him down. Reyes could be back by then, or Cora could get a few starts until Reyes is ready.

Another reason I'm for it is the case of Elvis Andrus. Their minor league numbers are eerily similar, and though Andrus played four seasons on the farm to Tejada's three (at this point), he was also signed a year younger, playing his first season at 16, while Tejada's first season came at 17.

For a side-by-side comparison, I isolated their full seasons at high-Class A and Double-A and present them along with their minor-league totals.

ELVIS ANDRUS:

Year	Age	Tm	Lev	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB
2007	18	2 Teams	A+	126	563	495	78	127	22	3	5	49	40	15	54	107	.257	.338	.343	.682	170
2008	19	Frisco	AA	118	535	482	82	142	19	2	4	65	54	16	38	91	.295	.350	.367	.717	177
4 Seasons				407	1789	1598	256	439	73	10	15	185	125	50	151	321	.275	.343	.361	.704	577
Rk (1 season)				52	213	184	29	54	7	1	3	21	8	4	23	32	.293	.380	.391	.772	72
A+ (1 season)				126	563	495	78	127	22	3	5	49	40	15	54	107	.257	.338	.343	.682	170
A (1 season)				111	478	437	67	116	25	4	3	50	23	15	36	91	.265	.324	.362	.685	158
AA (1 season)				118	535	482	82	142	19	2	4	65	54	16	38	91	.295	.350	.367	.717	177

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 3/23/2010.

RUBEN TEJADA:

Year	Age	Tm	Lev	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB
2007	17	2 Teams	FRk-Rk	67	298	241	45	78	9	3	3	41	18	6	38	35	.324	.434	.423	.857	102
2008	18	St. Lucie	A+	131	555	497	55	114	19	4	2	37	8	5	41	77	.229	.293	.296	.588	147
2009	19	Bing.	AA	134	553	488	59	141	24	3	5	46	19	3	37	59	.289	.351	.381	.732	186
3 Seasons				332	1406	1226	159	333	52	10	10	124	45	14	116	171	.272	.346	.355	.700	435

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 3/23/2010.

No one can be sure that Tejada will become the same Major Leaguer that Andrus has -- Tejada doesn't have the gaudy stolen-base totals in the minors, and he wouldn't be given the job for the season -- but there seem to be a lot of similarities between the two, leading me to believe there's at least a hint of Tejada's future when looking at Andrus. To me, that's worth a look when the season opens if your starting shortstop won't be there anyway.

I also had this link saved for eventual extrapolation, and going back to look at it now, I noticed it's the same type of comparison, only with a much bigger upside: Ike Davis has eerily similar minor league numbers to Ryan Braun. Davis was sent down to minor league camp this morning, and the situation with him is different from Tejada's because the Mets have their incumbent first baseman healthy and in the lineup ... and he just struck out to end the inning in today's exhibition game against the Braves.

I like Daniel Murphy, but having seen what Davis can do, I'm quickly moving toward his side of the argument. With the seasons the Mets have had the last three years, the money and prospects they've parted with to bring in the likes of Johan Santana, Jason Bay, Oliver Perez, Francisco Rodriguez, etc., having a couple of young, homegrown prospects making the leap to the big leagues would be refreshing and a sign of good things to come. It could be just what this franchise needs.

Part of what hurt so much about losing the NLCS in 2006 was that seemed like The Year, the best chance to win a World Series. Pedro Martinez had a great season and we didn't know if he'd hold up for the remaining years on his contract (bingo), Cliff Floyd had a solid season, David Wright and Reyes became MVP candidates and Tom Glavine was getting on in years, too. The window, it seemed, was as wide open as it would get and it would only begin to close in the following years. Turns out it remained open through most of 2007, until a sudden, late storm that September slammed it shut.

Heading into 2010, the window might not even be open yet. Maybe it's cracked half an inch. (Error by Luis Castillo follows Yunel Escobar's wind-aided homer to right-center off of Oliver Perez; that window isn't opening any more at the moment.) The Mets are a team in need of a breath of fresh air, and Jason Bay, as talented and likable as he is, is more of a zephyr than the strong gust they need to unfurl the sails and really take off.

Wow, that metaphor really took off, too. Jeez.