Why not Tejada?

Opening Day is less than two weeks away, and Jose Reyes will be back on the field in Port St. Lucie tomorrow to resume baseball activities, so we all know we'll be cheering Angel Pagan at the top of the order at Citi Field on April 5. What we don't know is who we'll be cheering at shortstop.

The likely answer to that query is veteran Alex Cora, but I'm starting to read more in support of giving 20-year-old Ruben Tejada a shot from the start. I can't disagree with any of those points, particularly in that there's no shame in failure. Give him a shot from the start, and if he's in over his head after a week, 10 days, two weeks, send him down. Reyes could be back by then, or Cora could get a few starts until Reyes is ready.

Another reason I'm for it is the case of Elvis Andrus. Their minor league numbers are eerily similar, and though Andrus played four seasons on the farm to Tejada's three (at this point), he was also signed a year younger, playing his first season at 16, while Tejada's first season came at 17.

For a side-by-side comparison, I isolated their full seasons at high-Class A and Double-A and present them along with their minor-league totals.

ELVIS ANDRUS:

Year	Age	Tm	Lev	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB
2007	18	2 Teams	A+	126	563	495	78	127	22	3	5	49	40	15	54	107	.257	.338	.343	.682	170
2008	19	Frisco	AA	118	535	482	82	142	19	2	4	65	54	16	38	91	.295	.350	.367	.717	177
4 Seasons				407	1789	1598	256	439	73	10	15	185	125	50	151	321	.275	.343	.361	.704	577
Rk (1 season)				52	213	184	29	54	7	1	3	21	8	4	23	32	.293	.380	.391	.772	72
A+ (1 season)				126	563	495	78	127	22	3	5	49	40	15	54	107	.257	.338	.343	.682	170
A (1 season)				111	478	437	67	116	25	4	3	50	23	15	36	91	.265	.324	.362	.685	158
AA (1 season)				118	535	482	82	142	19	2	4	65	54	16	38	91	.295	.350	.367	.717	177

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 3/23/2010.

RUBEN TEJADA:

Year	Age	Tm	Lev	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB
2007	17	2 Teams	FRk-Rk	67	298	241	45	78	9	3	3	41	18	6	38	35	.324	.434	.423	.857	102
2008	18	St. Lucie	A+	131	555	497	55	114	19	4	2	37	8	5	41	77	.229	.293	.296	.588	147
2009	19	Bing.	AA	134	553	488	59	141	24	3	5	46	19	3	37	59	.289	.351	.381	.732	186
3 Seasons				332	1406	1226	159	333	52	10	10	124	45	14	116	171	.272	.346	.355	.700	435

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 3/23/2010.

No one can be sure that Tejada will become the same Major Leaguer that Andrus has -- Tejada doesn't have the gaudy stolen-base totals in the minors, and he wouldn't be given the job for the season -- but there seem to be a lot of similarities between the two, leading me to believe there's at least a hint of Tejada's future when looking at Andrus. To me, that's worth a look when the season opens if your starting shortstop won't be there anyway.

I also had this link saved for eventual extrapolation, and going back to look at it now, I noticed it's the same type of comparison, only with a much bigger upside: Ike Davis has eerily similar minor league numbers to Ryan Braun. Davis was sent down to minor league camp this morning, and the situation with him is different from Tejada's because the Mets have their incumbent first baseman healthy and in the lineup ... and he just struck out to end the inning in today's exhibition game against the Braves.

I like Daniel Murphy, but having seen what Davis can do, I'm quickly moving toward his side of the argument. With the seasons the Mets have had the last three years, the money and prospects they've parted with to bring in the likes of Johan Santana, Jason Bay, Oliver Perez, Francisco Rodriguez, etc., having a couple of young, homegrown prospects making the leap to the big leagues would be refreshing and a sign of good things to come. It could be just what this franchise needs.

Part of what hurt so much about losing the NLCS in 2006 was that seemed like The Year, the best chance to win a World Series. Pedro Martinez had a great season and we didn't know if he'd hold up for the remaining years on his contract (bingo), Cliff Floyd had a solid season, David Wright and Reyes became MVP candidates and Tom Glavine was getting on in years, too. The window, it seemed, was as wide open as it would get and it would only begin to close in the following years. Turns out it remained open through most of 2007, until a sudden, late storm that September slammed it shut.

Heading into 2010, the window might not even be open yet. Maybe it's cracked half an inch. (Error by Luis Castillo follows Yunel Escobar's wind-aided homer to right-center off of Oliver Perez; that window isn't opening any more at the moment.) The Mets are a team in need of a breath of fresh air, and Jason Bay, as talented and likable as he is, is more of a zephyr than the strong gust they need to unfurl the sails and really take off.

Wow, that metaphor really took off, too. Jeez.