'Who'd you get!? Who'd you get!?' Opening those first 2012 cards

I finally found some 2012 Topps cards at a local Target, and even though I was going to boycott them this year for putting Jose Reyes in a Marlins uniform when he hasn't even played a game for them, I couldn't help myself. I bought one of the Target-exclusive 10-pack (eight cards each) boxes and an additional five single packs holding 12 cards each.

First off, the exclusive commemorative patch card in the box was one of the weak "Historical Stitches" meant to resemble the ID stitching sewn onto the jerseys back in the day. I got Bob Gibson, which if it were a patch of his number, I might be more excited about it. But his name? Meh. So that card, along with several others I pulled, I've put up on eBay in team-sorted lots of varying sizes. I'm not expecting too many hits, but figured it was worth a shot. The only ones I knew I definitely wanted to keep were any Mets and a few other players I like. I also have an affinity for the stars who helped me win my fantasy league last year, so I put those aside.

Now, for the Mets. Out of 140 cards, I drew five Mets, which seems like a solid ratio compared to past years, but it's certainly possible that I'm not remembering it accurately. A better ratio? I went 5-for-5 in not drawing black jerseys. Even better: two pinstriped uniforms, two white with blue hats/helmets, and one road uniform.

Here are the five, from least desirable to most (in my mind), with a few thoughts on each:

Not many people want Mike Pelfrey on the Mets, let alone his baseball card. But it's a beautiful sunny day in the pinstripes, so there's no better look in Queens. And he looks like a cat sticking out its tongue. Here's hoping for a rebound season.

After two years of underachieving, hopefully this is the year Jason Bay comes close to producing for what he's paid. Right? RIGHT?! The closer fences should only help. He just has to stay healthy. I saw the guy hit a grand slam last season, so hopefully that's a sign.

I was torn as to whether this or the next card is my second-favorite, but you'll see why the next one won out. I like Lucas Duda as a promising power source this year, plus the horizontal orientation is nice. And I'm 99.9 percent certain that the photo was taken after his walk-off single against the Padres on Aug. 8 last season. In fact, I believe it's this moment at the 48-second mark: The high-five matches up; Willie Harris is furthest from the TV camera and closest to the first-base photo pit; Terry Collins has come out for a handshake; and Ken Oberkfell is the big head behind Duda's in the video still and his jersey is to the left of Collins' head.

The reason R.A. Dickey is No. 2 should be obvious: Dickey Face! I've also seen it in person in Baltimore, but how can you beat a sunny day in the pinstripes? Plus, it's a great vantage point, probably taken from a concourse with a super telephoto lens. I've seen some of the pros shooting up there several times.

And the top Mets card I pulled is none other than David Wright's. This is the first standard base card of Wright that I've drawn in some time. I think any recent ones I have I bought on eBay.

Wanna guess which team showed up the most on cards I pulled? Yeah, the Yankees -- nine of them, including two Jesus Montero cards, one of which was the Target-exclusive red-border variation. I also got Derek Jeter's base card and a couple of subsets that forced Babe Ruth and Mickey Mantle into the set. And CC Sabathia came in the form of the 1987 Topps mini homage, the only time you're likely to hear "mini" when relating to Sabathia. (The other two '87 minis I got were David Price -- one of the stalwarts of the pitching staff of my Doherty Silk Sox championship team -- and Buster Posey.)

I'm toying with the idea of buying more -- perhaps a hobby box online -- to see what else comes up, but I'm going to give myself the weekend to mull it over. Of course, it would all be worth it if I drew one of the short prints that are fetching $30 and up on eBay. I have no need for fake a Reyes or Pujols card or a squirrel.

Picture this: Saturday night Dodgers-Mets

Yay! Blogger's back.

So, before we get too much further from last Saturday, here are some shots from batting practice and the game against the Dodgers. I won tickets and field access for batting practice in a contest via the team's Twitter account. The trivia question? Which players wore No. 20 in the Mets' two world championship seasons. The winner had to be the 20th correct response, and I got lucky.

Herewith, some shots (the full collection is here).




Carlos Beltran


Watching Ike


Turner's helmet


Skipper's advice


Ike Davis


On a break


Pridie stretches


Edgardo Alfonzo on the mic


Andre Ethier catches up with Jason Pridie


Pridie signs


That night's hero


Set aside


Hairston's kicks


Turner signs


Kevin Elster and Marty Noble


A Manny Mota moment


Reyes on the run


Wright at the plate


Ike and Murph


The night the streak ended


Kemp connects


David Wright's double


Bay connects

A look back: Mets openers

Soon, Casey and I will be riding the rails out to Flushing for another Mets opener (and a Mr. Met bobblehead!). In celebration of baseball coming back to Queens for the season, I've pulled some photos from past openers. I don't have photos from each of the past 12 openers I've been to, but here's a sampling of what I do have.

My first opener, 1991

 Look at the price!

Coming off the train, 2004


Introductions, 2004


Groundskeeper Bill Butler's skyline, 2005


Mr. Met coming off the 7, 2006


On the 7 for Shea's last, 2008


Presenting the good luck wreath, 2008


Citi's debut, from the video board, 2009


After Citi's unveiling, 2009


A bigger flag, 2010


David Wright's home run, 2010

Fresh outta the pack

So just like Keith Olbermann, the first 2011 Topps card I laid eyes on after opening my first pack of the year was that of Russell Branyan. And the one beneath it was also Alex Rodriguez.

But things got quite a bit better from there in the one $4.99 rack pack I bought at Target. For all the bad luck Paul had in pulling multiple Yankees and Phillies, I came away with four Mets cards, including David Wright's base card -- showing him in the home white uniform and blue hat, a double win. Out of all the packs I bought in 2010 -- Series 1 and Series 2 -- I'm pretty sure I was shut out of Wright base cards; I ended up buying it on eBay with a couple others I wanted but didn't pull in my purchases. Other than the aforementioned A-Rod, I got the Robinson Cano Toppstown card and A-Rod on a diamond foil AL RBI leaders card -- and that was it for Yanks or Phils.

The Mets team card featuring Jose Reyes and Angel Pagan in a celebratory postgame leap in the home whites is probably my favorite team card in a long time. I also got Dillon Gee's rookie card (in the black jersey; blah) and a Diamond Duo featuring Hisanori Takahashi and Koji Uehara. The beauty of Takahashi in a white uniform and blue hat on a bright, sunny day was tempered a bit by the fact that he's now an Angel.

Other cards of note included Hanley Ramirez, Andrew McCutchen (love the kid), David Price, Aroldis Chapman and a Diamond Anniversary reprint of Jackie Robinson's 1952 Topps card. The one Kimball Champions reprint I pulled was Justin Upton. The cards are nice enough, but I've never really chased the limited subsets in recent years. I'll probably buy individuals of the Mets or other favorite players, but I'm not sure I'll keep a checklist if I find myself buying boxes of 2011 Topps.

There were also a few cards that I enjoyed for the photography. Scott Hairston is shown in one of the Padres' brown-and-mustard throwback uniforms; Randy Wolf is depicted in a closely cropped action shot on a horizontal card; and the Orioles team card shows three players in mid-leap after a win, multiple arms and legs seemingly emanating from one body.

This year's design is decent. I do like the arcing panel for the players' names and the baseball in the corner housing the team logo, but after thoroughly loving last year's design with the club logo -- often the uniform logo -- designating the team, this set is a minor step back for me. The love for last year's design may be what prompted me to buy more packs (and 36-pack boxes for the first time since I was a kid in the early '90s) last year, so I'm not sure how much money I'll spend on packs. Maybe I'll just buy individual cards online. We'll see.

For the love of ... the game

Enjoying BP

I haven't felt an urge to write here in a few weeks because football -- specifically, college; more specifically, Notre Dame -- has begun and I find myself somewhat playing out the string when it comes to baseball. I'm still invested in it, seeing if the Rays can outlast the Yankees for the AL East (though what incentive does either team have to win the division?), if the Padres can hold on in the NL West, if the Rockies can make it another magical September and if the Braves really are the lesser of two very different but equally annoying and sickening evils in the NL East.

But with the Mets' season now a matter of whether they can get to 82 wins (not quite qualifying as "games that matter in September"), the discussion here in the blogosphere has naturally turned to next year. (And annoying, only-a-story-because-it's-New-York, off-the-field stuff like where the players go when they're in Washington.) We all know Jerry Manuel won't get a new contract when this one runs out, but I don't see him getting fired before the end of the season unless the Mets want to bring in Wally Backman for a seven-game tryout on the final homestand. (I just think it's unlikely they'll want to pay Manuel not to manage, even for a week.)

We don't know when Johan will pitch again, so I'm just going to try not to think about that. And it seems a given that Luis Castillo won't be on the team, one way or another, in 2011, if for no other reason than his contract is the easiest to eat out of Castillo, Oliver Perez and Carlos Beltran. (Personally, I would be fine with having Beltran next year, because I think of the three, he's the only one who can come close to a return on his salary, but without Johan, there's little point, so might as well see who'll give up what for him.)

There's one thing, though, that I keep reading here and there that really turns me off and makes me consider unsubscribing from all the Mets blogs I read and people I follow on Twitter -- trading Jose Reyes (and, though much less speculated, David Wright). I understand there's a difference between "listening to offers for a guy" and actively shopping him or considering a trade, but that's not what I'm talking about here. I'm talking about the posts that say Reyes has to go, that he's part of the problem and won't be part of the nucleus of a Mets playoff team during this decade. His enthusiasm and love for the game aside (how can you not smile when he gets up from a slide into third on a triple and claps his hands violently?), there aren't that many comparable leadoff hitters or shortstops who could replace him, let alone one player who could do both. The Mets are lucky in that they do have another leadoff option in Angel Pagan, but the lineup could be that much deeper if both are on the team. In fact, as of this writing, they have eerily similar stats, despite the fact that Reyes has played in 18 fewer games. With their problems on offense, the Mets can't afford to look for a good-field, no-hit shortstop -- especially if Ruben Tejada might be next year's second baseman.

Trading Reyes is the kind of move that would make me reconsider my allegiance to this team. (Trading Wright might just make me give up on the spot.) I love baseball and enjoy Citi Field too much to stop going, but on some days, the inaction by the front office or the refusal to acknowledge reality has me smirking at the crowds I see on TV. Yet, every February, just when winter's wrath starts to get old and even Florida seems inviting, I begin to think about Opening Day and can't bring myself to snap the string of attending the Mets' first game of the season in Queens. And so long as Nos. 7 and 5 are out there on the left side of the infield, I'll keep enjoying that day.

The shadows are creeping in

Some fans and beat writers are looking at this road trip to Atlanta and Philadelphia as a make-or-break stretch of six games in the Mets' season.

But I think it's already broken.

This isn't just about yesterday's debacle against the D-backs, which, had things been a bit different (say, New York had won five out of six from Arizona, with yesterday being the one loss), might otherwise be looked at as just a learning experience for Jon Niese. The young lefty still threw 51 of 83 pitches for strikes and should soon learn how to get a left-hander out even after two straight hits. Mets Police and Metsgrrl (not to mention a kick-ass headline on the game recap) have summed up pretty well how I felt sitting out there in Queens yesterday. I'm sure there are plenty of other good summations, but I can't bring myself to read anymore.

But yesterday's events confirmed for me what might be the core problems of this team.

I'm not part of the camp that thinks a roster overhaul is in order, that trading David Wright or Jose Reyes or Carlos Beltran is what is needed to get things going in the right direction. Those guys -- particularly Wright and Reyes -- are the core and that's who they need to build around to get back on top of the NL East. And I'm glad they stood their ground at the trading deadline, not making a move for the sake of making a move (which it sounds like this one guy behind me yesterday wanted to see). Dealing a few mid-level prospects for a Jake Westbrook or Ted Lilly or Chad Qualls wasn't going to make up four or five games in the standings. Besides, it sounds like whoever the Mets contacted to sniff out a trade was asking for Niese or Ike Davis -- or both -- as a starting point. No, thank you.

And I'm not sure the Mets had too many tradeable veterans to send away to bring back a young player or two. Pedro Feliciano was probably the most attractive candidate, and maybe he could have been moved, but relief pitching is at a premium, and if this team is a few offseason moves away from fielding a legitimate contender, Feliciano is going to be part of that foundation. Francisco Rodriguez is probably untradeable (and, I'm sorry, for all his faults, he's not really any worse than most other closers. Overpaid? Sure, as are pretty much all ninth-inning guys not named Rivera). Jeff Francoeur? He can be dealt in August -- and he just might be, once we all get a look at the standings on Sunday night.

So I'm fine with the lack of activity at the deadline, because these three key problems aren't solvable in a July trade or two.

1.) Three particularly bad contracts are holding Omar Minaya and Jerry Manuel hostage. That is, they don't have the flexibility to improve the roster with the three-headed albatross of Oliver Perez, Luis Castillo and Alex Cora. Ollie and Castillo are untradeable, unless the Mets get another bad contract back in return. And for the money they're making -- at least that Perez is -- it's hard to designate them for assignment and eat that money, whether or not you believe the team is in financial straits because of the Madoff mess. Still, no one who was at the ballpark yesterday would care if they heard tonight that one or both was booted off the roster. And Cora, as a versatile backup infielder (even if he can't hit), isn't a bad contract for one year, but when he's starting 41 of the 61 games he's appeared in (numbers that should, at the very least, be reversed) and when he has a terrible vesting option that becomes guaranteed as soon as he plays in that 80th or 81st game, then it's a bad contract, because then you're stuck with a .200 hitter again next season.

The one tarnished silver lining I can find in these deals is that Omar stood his ground when Bengie Molina wouldn't take the Mets' one-year offer. (Though Cora's deal was also done this offseason, which doesn't help matters.)

2.) The faith in John Maine in the rotation -- and, relatedly, Perez, too -- helped sink the Mets this season. I don't think there was any question as to whether Maine would make the rotation this spring, or that he would be the No. 2 starter. Maine's ceiling may have once been as a No. 2, but he had done nothing since 2007 to show that potential. Going into spring training with Maine and Perez as the Nos. 2 and 3 didn't help. A contending team needs those slots to be rock-solid firm, not based on potential and hope for a bounce-back season. Mike Pelfrey and Niese certainly pitched like consistent top-of-the-rotation starters in the first half, but if Pelfrey doesn't get over this dead-arm period (or whatever it is) and Niese doesn't rebound from Sunday, the Mets can't go into 2011 with those two as the rock-solid Nos. 2 and 3.

This has been discussed elsewhere this season, but the Mets are pretty lucky that they didn't overpay (in dollars or years) for some of the free-agent pitchers that we were all clamoring for in the offseason, myself included. Jason Marquis hasn't pitched for the Nationals since April, I think; Ben Sheets is done for the year; and John Lackey would have been way too many dollars for certainly too many years. Joel Pineiro (10-7, 4.18 for the Angels) and Jon Garland (10-7, 3.60 for the Padres) would have helped keep Hisanori Takahashi in the bullpen, but would either have really made that much of a difference? (Both might have, but then Niese would be something like 12-2 for Buffalo right now.) Which brings us to my third key problem that has soured 2010 ...

3.) Why can't this team win on the road? At 20-33, the Mets are playing .377 ball on the road. Want to know who has better winning percentages away from their home parks? Toronto, Kansas City, Cleveland, Oakland, Milwaukee, the Cubs, Houston, Houston, Colorado and the Dodgers. The Mets are playing .635 baseball at home, better than everyone but the Braves, Phillies, Yankees, Cardinals and Rockies. If the Mets could play just close to .500 on the road (I'm talking 26-27 at this point, if they'd won six more games -- how about three in Arizona, one in Puerto Rico, and one each in San Francisco and Los Angeles), they'd be a half-game out of first as they begin a three-game set at Turner Field.

With such a difference in home and road winning percentage (at a .257 difference, the only teams with bigger gaps are the Tigers, .346; Braves, .285; Cardinals, .275; and Rockies, .276; and Atlanta leads baseball with a .723 winning percentage at home!) I don't know how that can be explained by anything other than the manager and coaching staff. As explained in Nos. 1 and 2, Manuel is a bit hamstrung because of some of the players on his roster, but if they can win 63 percent of their games at home, they shouldn't be losing 63 percent on the road. As much as I love Howard Johnson, he has to shoulder some of the blame when the team is shut out three times on the same road trip for the first time since the early '90s, or whenever it was. And then they added a fourth shutout for good measure. And Manuel, who I gave credit to when he had the team in first place back at the end of April and within half a game as late as June 27, has to do something to get this club a winning road trip. His refusal to use K-Rod for anything but a save situation in a tie game on the road is maddening. What's the point of keeping Rodriguez for a save situation that only might appear when Ryota Igarashi or Raul Valdes is taking the loss in the bottom of the ninth or 10th?


And so that's how I see it. Others may not agree, but for some reason I like to find two or three points that seem to be the root cause of the problem. I guess it's something of a baseball butterfly effect -- had things been different in these particular instances, then maybe, just maybe, everything would have turned out better in the end (or to this point).

As for this road trip, I can't see how anyone thinks this time will be any better than the last one. It's now August. There are two months left in the season, 29 home games and 28 road games (if I counted and subtracted correctly in my head). If the Mets play at their current rates at home and on the road, they'd go 51-30 at Citi and 30-51 on the road. Yes, folks, that's a .500 season. Except, for this road trip to "make" them, they need to do no worse than 4-2. There's not enough time left to break even in six games in Atlanta and Philly, not when there is another trip to each one still to come. They have to make close ground, winning two out of three at each stop this week. They can't afford any steps back.

And I don't think they can do it. The sun may not have set on this season, but it's casting some very long shadows.

My one final thought to wrap up this discourse is this: After the heartbreak of 2007 and '08 and the frustration of nothing going right in 2009, I just wanted a competent, competitive team. I let myself get excited over first place at the end of April and half a game out five weeks ago. I enjoy it when my teams are winning and I can't stand to criticize and nitpick their faults. I know someone who gets worked up over every at-bat, nearly every pitch. I just can't be a fan like that. I just wanted a team that had a chance to finish a strong second in the division, to look down on the Braves or Phillies, even if it meant the other one was on top and some team from the West was the Wild Card winner.

So much for that. Guess I'll have to look for some room on that Reds bandwagon. It'd be nice to see some fresh blood make some noise in October.


Created with Admarket's flickrSLiDR.

Ike's rookie power

Ike Davis' 14th home run last night marked the most by a Mets rookie since David Wright hit 14 during his rookie year in 2004, when he also was an in-season callup. Wright hit his 14 in 69 games (283 plate appearances), Davis needed 84 games (344 PAs). The current corners of the Mets infield now rank third in rookie-year home runs in team history.

Ahead of the pair is Ron Swoboda's 19 long balls in 1965 and the best hitter developed by the Mets until Wright came along, Darryl Strawberry, who hit 26 in 1983. At Davis' current rate of one homer every 24.7 plate appearances and estimating 245 more PAs this season (based on his 115 in May and 110 in June), he could have about 10 more left in him, putting him at 24.

Whether he hits more or less depends on the adjustments he makes as pitchers become even more familiar with him and his endurance as he plays past Labor Day for the first time in his career. But the home run rate is right on his combined numbers from St. Lucie and Binghamton in 2009: his 20 homers in 488 PAs was one every 24.4 at-bats. (In his 42 PAs at Triple-A Buffalo to start 2010, he hit two, or one every 21 PAs.) I left out his 2008 pro debut in Brooklyn, when he went homerless in 239 PAs, because that was no doubt an aberration as he adjusted to professional ball after being drafted that June out of Arizona State. And if you want the high end of his ability, perhaps what he did at Double-A last summer is an indication: He hit 13 homers in 233 PAs, or one every 17.9 trips to the dish.

Here are the best home run totals (10+) by Mets rookies, courtesy Baseball-Reference:

Rk	Player	HR ▾	Year	Age	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	RBI	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	SF	GDP	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1	Darryl Strawberry	26	1983	21	122	473	420	63	108	15	7	74	47	9	128	4	2	5	19	6	.257	.336	.512	.848
2	Ron Swoboda	19	1965	21	135	438	399	52	91	15	3	50	33	3	102	3	2	10	2	3	.228	.291	.424	.714
3	David Wright	14	2004	21	69	283	263	41	77	17	1	40	14	0	40	3	3	7	6	0	.293	.332	.525	.857
4	Ike Davis	14	2010	23	84	347	311	47	78	18	0	46	34	3	85	1	1	9	1	0	.251	.326	.444	.769
5	Jeromy Burnitz	13	1993	24	86	306	263	49	64	10	6	38	38	4	66	1	2	2	3	6	.243	.339	.475	.814
6	Jim Hickman	13	1962	25	140	452	392	54	96	18	2	46	47	2	96	3	3	9	4	4	.245	.328	.401	.729
7	Steve Henderson	12	1977	24	99	398	350	67	104	16	6	65	43	2	79	1	4	13	6	3	.297	.372	.480	.852
8	Mike Jacobs	11	2005	24	30	112	100	19	31	7	0	23	10	0	22	1	1	5	0	0	.310	.375	.710	1.085
9	Ron Hunt	10	1963	22	143	600	533	64	145	28	4	42	40	0	50	13	6	13	5	4	.272	.334	.396	.730
10	Tsuyoshi Shinjo	10	2001	29	123	438	400	46	107	23	1	56	25	3	70	7	2	8	4	5	.268	.320	.405	.725

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Generated 7/24/2010.