We'll always have 20

I got a call last week from "my Mets ticket representative," who of course wanted to know what it would take to get me into a 2013 ticket package that day. But he started out by asking how often I come to games (usually about a dozen, though last year was the first in about eight that I didn't hit double-digits) and what my favorite memory at a game has been. Nothing tops the 2000 NLCS clincher over the Cardinals, but he meant at the new ballpark. And I didn't have an answer right away. At first, I answered that I wasn't sure it had happened yet.

And then I remembered: R.A. Dickey's 20th win in September. That is my favorite moment, and if it's not the new place's greatest moment, it might be equal to Johan Santana's no-hitter. I wasn't there for the no-no, so I can't say from experience whether Sept. 27 was better -- or even equal to -- June 1, but here's why Dickey's 20th stands out for me: On a weekday afternoon with school in session, a less-than-capacity crowd was as loud and enthusiastic as an Opening Day sellout or a Friday night opener against the Bronx boys (who of course have plenty of their own fans invading). The City rocked like Shea used to as we cheered on every strikeout as the game moved past the fifth inning, and when Dickey walked off the mound for the last time, everyone -- the group from The 7 Line in center field, the folks in the upper deck, those of us along the first-base line -- all stood and cheered the way you do for an ace.

Dickey was a great story -- and we've all heard it, several times, since his book came out last winter -- and it was wonderful to have that story on our team. Quite often, we'll hear from other fan bases that a player is getting so much publicity just because he plays in New York, but in this case, Dickey deserved it all. He was a great story no matter what team's jersey he was wearing. It was a pleasure to root not just for the knuckleball pitcher, but the person in that uniform.

So while I understand today's trade, while I know the Mets weren't going to contend this year, while I realize that Dickey's value would never be higher and there's a good chance they won't be good enough soon enough for him to have an impact on a contender, and while I love that they got a potential All-Star catcher in Travis d'Arnaud, I still find Dickey's departure a little hard to take as a fan. Just on the face of it, it's worse than saying goodbye to Jose Reyes. But at least Reyes left on his own, taking an offer that I'm glad my team didn't present to him. Dickey, though, was dealt away by the team, then signed a very reasonable offer that said team easily (even in their dire financial straits) could have made.

For now, I'm disappointed. I'd hoped to use the occasion of a Dickey contract extension to buy a new blue Mets alternate jersey with his name on the back. Now, I'm thinking 2013 might be the year my Opening Day streak (dating back to 2000) comes to an end. I'm not going to boycott the team and not go to any games, but I'm just not inspired to pay the money to be there for Game 1.

I know this move is better for the future, and the future is where this team's chances lie (because they're not in the present -- as in the 2013 season). But it doesn't make the waiting -- which Mets fans have been doing since 2006 -- any easier.

Adios

I wasn't sure I was going to write about Jose Reyes. I thought about just letting this day go by without weighing in, without dwelling on it, and just try to focus on other things -- fantasy football, bowl season, Christmas -- in the hopes that I might miss any press conferences or introductions in order to lessen the impact. Then, before I knew it, it would be Opening Day and, so what? It's like he wasn't even here.

But that, of course, is not possible. Reyes is arguably the most dynamic player the Mets have ever developed and he sure was fun to watch. He loves the game, he has fun, and his smile shows that. If he's on your team, you can't help but root for him. If he's on the other team, you really want to beat him. And that's what makes this new destination, in South Florida, all the more perplexing. A few years ago, when the Phillies and their fans complained about what they perceived as Reyes showboating, the Marlins also got in on that meme. (Ironically, if you google "Jose Reyes showboat," you find a lot of Phillies blogs slamming him, particularly in '08 -- as well as several advocating that the team sign him this offseason.) I always felt the Marlins had no ground to stand on with that complaint, because Hanley Ramirez has never been known to put his head down and run out a double. And now they've gone and signed the guy they think has a little too much fun out there.

I'm certainly torn between wishing Reyes well and hoping his contract becomes an albatross to the Marlins. I like the guy, and good for him for getting his payday. And the Mets, if Sandy Alderson is being truthful, made a competitive offer, which is all I could hope for out of this scenario. Well, yes, I hoped the Mets would re-sign the guy, but not at six guaranteed years and something north of $100 million. I think their alleged offer of five years in the $90 million range, with a sixth-year option to push it over $100 million, was a competitive offer. But Reyes clearly wanted the guaranteed money -- and potential to reach the playoffs. Yes, let's be honest here, the Mets are looking like the worst team in the NL East for 2012, despite what looks to be a wide-open division. It's too early to say who the favorite is, because a lot of player movement is still to come, but I can't envision the Mets being better than any of the other four clubs.

But does Reyes push the Marlins over the top? I'm not so sure. He's averaged just 98 games the past three years, and his addition means franchise player Hanley Ramirez will have to move to third base. Good luck smoothing that one over, Ozzie Guillen. The club's ace, Josh Johnson, didn't pitch after May 16 this past season, and despite all the Phillies' other holes, the front of their rotation is still solid, so the Marlins can't match that. I will say this, though: For once, the expectations of the Marlins' ownership may be justified, for the first time since about 2003. They've set the bar too high in recent years and run off a couple of good managers as a result of inflated hopes. But as I said, it's early. These Marlins are looking to spend like hedge-fund managers during the Bush years. They may add more important pieces, which would change the outlook. But building a team through free agency rarely works. Teams tend to have better track records with a successful core that is then supplemented by free-agent pieces to fill the holes. The Marlins' holes are more than a shortstop -- and not even that -- and a closer.

I could be wrong. Time will tell. These are just the initial thoughts and feelings not even 24 hours after a guy we've come to love watching out there left for a team only a mother could love.

Adios.

One wish

Glad that's over.

Mets in '09!

Falling short once again

I've let time pass and decided I'm ready to write this post. It's hard to watch your team come so close to the postseason and not close the deal. It's particularly tough when your boys have it in their control -- all they have to do is win -- and it still gets away. But as time passes, as the days go by and we get deeper into October, we get further from the season and reality sets in. Baseball fades as teams drop from the playoffs, football rises, and sad thoughts of this year become hopeful wishes for next year.

This year's fall wasn't as bad as last year's. It didn't hurt as much. While I hoped the Mets would erase the bad taste from 2007, this year's team wasn't as good. It didn't have the depth to overcome all the injuries. Bringing back Moises Alou probably wasn't a good idea from the outset, but losing him wasn't the worst thing to happen. But losing Angel Pagan and then Fernando Tatis, well, that exacerbated the problem. John Maine's absence in September wouldn't have been crippling if Billy Wagner hadn't gone down and blown up the entire bullpen. With Wagner on board, that bullpen lines up much better and fewer games get blown; more close losses instead to go the Mets' way and -- perhaps -- they edge out the Brewers by a game, instead of the other way around.

The 2007 Mets were on top of the NL East -- and the National League -- for the bulk of the season. They led until the final week. They were the better team. The 2008 Mets, though, weren't as good as this year's Phillies. Nevermind the postseason, where anything can happen (note the 2006 Cardinals and '07 Rockies, to name just two recent hot-at-the-right-time teams).

What we can hope for, as Mets fans, is that this year taught management a lesson. Luis Castillo is a black hole in the lineup and at second base. The bullpen needs an overhaul. Oliver Perez, for all his inconsistency, should probably be brought back. It'll be easier to fill that fifth-starter's position than both slots four and five. Ryan Church can be an everyday right fielder so long as he isn't concussed, and while Daniel Murphy and Nick Evans could probably be a serviceable left-field platoon, an everyday replacement there would probably be a better move.

I'll use another post to go through the free-agent options, but one thing is clear: The Mets are probably going to have to open the checking account to bring in Francisco Rodriguez or Kerry Wood. A closer is needed, and there aren't many available. Brian Fuentes may be had in a trade, but if the fans got on Wagner just because he put two runners on base before getting the last out, what will they do when Fuentes turns two-run wins into one-run wins? Or worse?

And I'd love to see them revive a possible acquisition from three years ago: Rafael Furcal to play second base. Castillo would have to be traded (and his contract paid for), but I'd rather spend throw money at the solution than throw losses at the problem by starting Castillo everyday.

So now we're left with another offseason of waiting, watching, wanting. The Phillies are up, 2-0, in the NLCS and appear headed to the World Series. Those fans will be even more obnoxious and unbearable if they get there. As for us, we'll just have to anticipate the Winter Meetings, wait for the New Year and long for Spring Training and then the coming of Citi Field.

Not sure what to think about the Milledge deal

I'm confused by this deal. Two things are obvious, or seem so:

1.) Johnny Estrada will be flipped elsewhere.
2.) The Mets aren't getting Johan Santana.

Brian Schneider will team with Ramon Castro, perhaps as something close to a straight platoon, since they bat left and right, respectively. And since the Mets just signed Castro to a two-year deal, Estrada is the one out. He can also be non-tendered and become a free agent, which makes the deal to get him basically a Guillermo Mota contract dump. Nothing wrong with that, either.

As for Santana, I don't see how the Mets could land him if, as reports have said, the Twins aren't wild about the Mets' pitching prospects and now they've dealt one of their younger outfielders. Would Omar Minaya trade Carlos Gomez away now that Milledge is gone? I doubt it. It looks like Church and Gomez will team up to be the right-field platoon ... and then both will start the 40 games Moises Alou misses.

This does balance out the Mets, as Marty Noble points out, though Bill Ladson's source may be misguided if he thinks Church will be the everyday right fielder. I'm not so sure of that. Shawn Green is definitely gone now. Church is effectively Green, minus four years. In 14 more games, Church hit five more homers, drove in 24 more runs and hit .019 points lower (.291 to .272), which really isn't too bad. Church is a better defender, too.

It makes for an interesting dynamic in D.C. It's clear Milledge has talent at the plate, and his defensive shortcomings were one reason the Mets were willing to deal him. But he's also had attitude issues, and so putting him on a team with Wily Mo Pena and, perhaps more importantly, Dmitri Young will be interesting. To his credit, though, Young had a stellar season under the radar, causing no problems on or off the field. He really didn't have a history as a malcontent, but in the sports and entertainment worlds these days, one bad year can make or break your reputation. Plus, it's not a bad outfield -- on paper -- with Pena, Milledge and Austin Kearns around in right.

So now do the Nats go with Jesus Flores as their catcher (whom they plucked from the Mets in the Rule V draft in December 2006)? He was a very limited backup last year because the Nats had to keep him on the 25-man roster or offer him back to the Mets. I'm not even sure he reached Double-A in the Mets' system, so he could be ticketed for the minors for more seasoning. The options on the free-agent market are slim. There seem to be only three who would be worthy of regular (at least four or five games a week) No. 1 duty: Michael Barrett and perhaps Rod Barajas and Paul Lo Duca. But Lo Duca wants, I believe, a ridiculous four-year deal and has also said he wants to go to a team "committed to winning." I don't doubt that the Nats are committed to winning, but I'm sure Lo Duca really means "on the verge of winning." The Nats could be in that position by the end of a hypothetical four-year deal for Lo Duca, but unless their pitching takes immense leaps and bounds forward this year and next, that's unlikely.

I don't see this deal quite as one-sided as Keith Law does, in part because he's going on potential. Yes, Milledge has the potential to be the best player in the deal, but he's not. Yet. At the moment, it's an even trade that helps both teams. We'll wait to see how well Milledge develops before truly evaluating it. Ever since the Scott Kazmir deal, Mets fans are ready to leap off the ledge when a prospect is discussed in trade talks, but they're not all going to turn into stars. Alex Escobar was once the top prospect in the Mets system and seen as a five-tool guy, and his career hasn't gone anywhere.

Milledge's will go somewhere, but until it does, you can't kill the Mets for dealing from a position of strength (and outfield is probably their strongest area throughout the system) to fill two key -- and starting -- needs. Teams these days are holding onto their prospects because they're cheaper than free agents and established stars, not because they're becoming gun-shy. Boston gave up some pretty solid players in Anibal Sanchez and Hanley Ramirez to land Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell, and they may do it again to land Santana. The Yankees won't discuss Joba Chamberlain, but that's really as simple a decision as it was to designate Derek Jeter the shortstop of the future from 1995 on. But if Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes remain to form the top three of the Yankees rotation in the new stadium in 2009, only then will there truly be a new way of thinking when it comes to dealing prospects.

Because the Mets are one of those teams where money isn't as much of an issue, they may be better off signing a marginal free-agent pitcher instead of betting the farm (system) on a trade. The Twins have better offers from the Red Sox and Yankees for Santana, and the loser of that sweepstakes (which could be both teams, should Minnesota back down) could still use the package for Oakland's Dan Haren. The O's will probably hold any team hostage before dealing Erik Bedard (the way the Marlins are in regards to Miguel Cabrera), so as a Mets fan, I'd rather see the team hold onto Gomez, Fernando Martinez, Mike Pelfrey, Phil Humber, Aaron Heilman, et. al. and take a chance on a Bartolo Colon, Carlos Silva or Livan Hernandez. Silva will cost a bit, but Colon should come cheaply with an incentive-laded contract that will pay him more if he stays healthy and pitches more. Hernandez would fill nicely Tom Glavine's 200 innings and should come at a rather reasonable price -- that is, cheaper than Silva.

Another season done

Oy. So here we are, post-World Series. The Mets' injuries caught up to them and, despite pushing the Cardinals to a seventh game, their season ended five wins short of where it should have. The way the Tigers played in the World Series, that parade on Sunday would have been in New York.

My postseason predictions were blown up in the first round, so I didn't bother updating them, in part because it's not really fair to adjust on the fly, but also because work got so hectic -- and tiring -- that I was exhausted by the end of the NLCS. (The morning after which, I immediately got on a plane for Chicago, drove to South Bend, saw an amazing Notre Dame comeback victory over UCLA, flew back on Sunday and zipped to work for Game 2 of the World Series.) When we were throwing out our off-hand predictions at work, I did peg the Tigers to beat the A's, though in seven, not four. For the Series, however, considering the Tigers' tear through the Yankees and A's, their seemingly superior pitching and the rest it had, I questioned whether the Cardinals would even manage a lead for more than an inning or two in alluding to a four-game Tigers sweep. One guy at work went so far as to say, "Tigers in three."

But the Cardinals -- the worst World Series winner in history, if you go by win total (they had 83) -- proved, once again, that you don't have to be the best team to win, just the hottest team. That's no knock against them, either. Whatever it takes to get it done is fine by me. Had Game 7 in 1973 gone the other way, those '73 Mets would've owned the distinction -- even after this year -- of having the worst regular-season record of any Series champion.

The Cards got the Tigers to swing at everything and eeked out a few wins here and there, even getting Anthony Reyes -- who, in Game 4 against the Mets, looked like he belonged in the instructional league in Florida, not on a postseason roster -- to look like a Rookie of the Year candidate in Game 1. He faced, of course, the soon-to-be American League Rookie of the Year in Justin Verlander (my full predictions to come soon). Detroit managed one victory, but even that was stained -- literally -- by Kenny Rogers, a pitcher so reviled by fans of both New York teams that Tigers manager Jim Leyland was sure to set up his pitching rotation to make sure Rogers wouldn't pitch in Yankee Stadium in the ALDS or Shea Stadium in a potential Detroit-New York World Series. Even after Game 5 of the Series was pushed back a day because of rain, Leyland refused to pitch Rogers to try to get the Series back to Detroit for Game 6. Trying to explain it away by saying, "if it was one game left, I would pitch Kenny. But we've got to win three," Leyland also admitted that he didn't want to pitch Rogers in the environment of Busch Stadium, saying he felt Rogers responded better to the Comerica Park environment. Clearly, Rogers is such a narcisist that he prefers the adulations to the rush of quieting the jeers. Curt Schilling made no attempt to hide the joy he gets from shutting up 55,000 fans, as he did in New York in 2004.

So there goes 2006. It certainly turned out to have several surprises -- the Mets with the best record in baseball, the Tigers in the World Series, no 20-game winners, a catcher winning the American League batting title, the Marlins, Alfonso Soriano, Jonathan Papelbon and others. There'll be a lot coming up this offseason, but I'll get into that later.