The six covers of SI's 2013 baseball preview issue

It's that time of year. Sports Illustrated released its baseball preview cover yesterday.

Actually, that should be covers. For the first time in the 59 years of SI baseball preview issues, the magazine has printed true regional covers, six in all, with a main image customized for four different regions of the country: Northeast, Mid-Atlanic, South, Midwest (both Rust Belt and Plains) and West. My comprehensive look at the history of the baseball preview covers has been updated to include this year, but in this post I'm going to take a closer look at each of the six produced for the 2013 season, in the order of success I think they'll have.

But first, what these covers do for the totals. By featuring six starting pitchers, SI widened the gap between starters (31) and the next-most-frequent position, outfielders (19). Five of the six players made their baseball preview cover debuts, pushing the total number of players shown over the years to 70. We've also got a team represented for the first time, bringing us up to 25 of the current 30 clubs, leaving out only the Blue Jays, White Sox (a bit surprising), Astros, Marlins and Braves (also quite surprising).

So here are the six 2013 preview covers listed, in my mind, from least deserving to most, with "deserving" defined as ideally being the favorite (or at least a top-two favorite) to win its division.

James Shields, Royals

Shields is the only one of the six this year to fulfill one of two themes that have come up frequently: a player on a new team or a player on the defending champions. The right-hander, of course, was traded to Kansas City (most of the "new team" players were free agents, with the Phillies' Roy Halladay in 2010 another trade exception). Shields is the first Royal on the cover since David Cone in 1993 -- when he was new to Kansas City after signing a free-agent deal.
The Royals are certainly an interesting story this year. They added Shields, Wade Davis (in the same deal) and Ervin Santana to the rotation and they have a deep, young core with Salvador Perez, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Alex Gordon and Billy Butler (and you can add Alcides Escobar and Lorenzo Cain to the list if you'd like). And though expected to be dominated by the Tigers, the AL Central is otherwise a pretty balanced division, or at least one in which the Royals could make some noise. But I just don't see them as one of the top two contenders -- that'd be Detroit and Chicago -- like four of the other five covers feature.

CC Sabathia, Yankees

This is the issue that arrived in my mailbox today. Despite the cover (which I knew I'd receive), it was a pleasant surprise, because what used to be a regular Wednesday (Thursday at the latest) appearance in my mail has, over maybe the past year, become more of a Thursday-if-I'm-lucky/usually Friday/occasionally Saturday treat in the mail. So to have it the first day I could conceivably expect it was nice.

As for the cover subject, let's put this out there now: The Yankees are there because SI didn't want to omit the huge New York market. Robinson Cano would've been the better choice, but it certainly looks like these six cover subjects were chosen because they're all pitchers (clearly, I haven't flipped through the issue -- or read the headlines -- yet). But if you ask me, the Yankees don't fit the criteria of a top-two contender in the division, either. With their age and all the injuries (not mutually exclusive), I think they'll have an uphill battle to catch Toronto and Tampa Bay. The Yankees have holes at catcher, third/first base (wherever Kevin Youkilis doesn't play, and at least until -- though maybe after -- Mark Teixeira returns) and wherever Vernon Wells plays (but to be fair, SI had its preview in the bag before that deal went down).

But this choice makes Sabathia one of the rare two-time featured athletes. Only seven players have appeared on multiple covers (two each), with only three of those getting the featured spot to themselves. Willie Mays appeared in 1955 and '59, Steve Garvey in '75 and '82 (both solo), Mark McGwire in '88 and '98, Derek Jeter in 2001 and '05, Albert Pujols in '06 and '12 (both solo), Halladay in 2010 and '11 and Sabathia in 2009 and '13 (both solo, because I'm not counting the 2009 regional inset).

Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers

Kershaw is the first Dodger to grace the preview cover since Kevin Brown in 1999 -- the year he (wait for it) began a seven-year deal with Los Angeles. He was baseball's first $100 million man, signing for $105 million. The Dodgers are certainly one of the big storylines of the upcoming season, and it wouldn't have surprised me to see them featured nationally, had SI gone that route. But they still have to take on the defending World Series champions -- who didn't get a regional cover, despite a worthy hurler in Matt Cain, who I probably would've gone with over Shields. L.A. is a strong contender, easily a top-two pick in the NL West, but among these cover candidates, I think it has the fourth-best chance of winning the division.

David Price, Rays

With this image, Tampa Bay became the 25th active club to have a player featured on a preview cover. Not even the 2008 collection of '05 draft picks included a (Devil) Ray. (That's because Tampa Bay selected Wade Townsend eighth overall, passing on Red Sox coverboys Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz, not to mention Andrew McCutchen, Jay Bruce and Matt Garza, to name a few.)

Price is an apt choice as the defending AL Cy Young Award winner, the head of a strong, young pitching staff and a stud who's about to come into a big payday of his own. Plus, the Rays have a great chance to contend in (and win) an AL East that sees the Red Sox still trying to get their footing, the Orioles having made no major changes to the luckiest team in Major League history (an unprecedented -- and likely unrepeatable -- 29-9 in one-run games, not to mention 16-2 in extra innings) and the Yankees aging before our eyes. Sure, the Blue Jays are loaded after a busy offseason, but just ask the Marlins -- several of whom are now in Toronto -- how that worked out last year.

I should say, too, that the Blue Jays -- particularly R.A. Dickey -- would've been a great choice for a cover, too, but I wonder if he was omitted because SI is an American magazine and choosing a regional cover for Toronto might not fit into their marketing plans. The Jays have never been featured on a preview issue before (though the Expos have), but it certainly wasn't going to happen as a regional option.

Justin Verlander, Tigers

In reality, I'm considering this one a tie with the next one. In fact, I think Detroit has a better chance of winning its division, but I'm listing it here for a reason I'll get to in a moment. But as I said in discussing the Shields cover, it's going to take a mighty effort by the White Sox, Royals or Indians to overtake the Tigers in the AL Central, and with that lineup and this guy heading the rotation, it's unlikely.

Surprisingly for a franchise that's had Sparky Anderson, Kirk Gibson, Alan Trammell, Cecil Fielder and currently the best pitcher in the game, Verlander marks the Tigers' first appearance on a preview cover since Bill Freehan represented the defending champs on the 1969 cover.

Stephen Strasburg, Nationals

While I do think Detroit has a better chance of winning its division than Washington, I list this as the most deserving cover because the Nationals are SI's pick to win the World Series. In my mind, they'll have a tougher time fending off the Braves than the Tigers will holding back any of their division opponents, but if the magazine is picking the team to go all the way, then give it the cover, I say.

Strasburg represents D.C.'s second preview cover appearance, after Ryan Zimmerman on the 2008 fold-out issue. The previous Washington franchises -- both iterations of the Senators -- never got the honor. As I noted in the cover analysis post, my friends in Virginia aren't happy about the cover jinx touching their team, but one rationalized that it's only 1/6th of a jinx, on account of the regional covers.

We'll see about that. But one thing's sure: After what was seen as a surprising run to the NL East title last year, the Nationals won't be sneaking up on anyone this year. They're the favorites, and everyone will be gunning for them.

Washington chooses its history

Pennants atop the scoreboard

Two weeks ago, I drove down to Washington to meet up with two college friends and see the Nationals play the Reds. We'd speculated a couple of weeks before and bought tickets hoping it would be Stephen Strasburg's debut. But unlike many Nats fans, we didn't bitch when the team announced his first start for June 8. We held our annual reunion at a ballpark and got drunk anyway. (And then Brad, the one of us who lives near D.C., went again on June 8 and fell in love.)

One thing that caught my eye on my second visit to Nationals Park was the celebration of baseball history, beginning with the statues of Walter Johnson, Frank Howard and Josh Gibson and continuing throught the concourse with banners depicting Hall of Famers from throughout the Major Leagues. And then, atop the arched "NATIONALS" sign atop the scoreboard, fly four flags, three of which display the years 1924, 1925 and 1933 signifying the original Senators' three American League pennants.

Nowhere did I see any mention of the Expos' 1981 split NL East title or any recognition of Tim Raines, Andre Dawson or Gary Carter (though I imagine Carter may have a Hall of Fame banner somewhere). Granted, even with just one World Series title among two franchises that left town, Washington has a richer baseball history than Montreal, if only marginally. And I do understand the point of promoting the city's baseball bloodlines, both in the American League and the Negro leagues. And as far as the statues and banners go, it's a nod to individual stars, not other teams. The pennants are a different matter.

This all struck me as slightly odd, because essentially the Nationals are celebrating the history of the Minnesota Twins (Senators 1901-60) and Texas Rangers (Senators 1961-71), but not the Expos, the team from which the Nationals were born. The Mets may have a rotunda celebrating the life of an American pioneer in Jackie Robinson, but they don't have any 1955 pennants celebrating the Dodgers' World Series victory.

But now [... segue ...] the Nationals are building a history of their own to honor, specifically every fifth day, when Strasburg takes the mound. In that celebrated first start of his, he set a Nationals record with 14 strikeouts -- dating back only to 2005, of course. The franchise record is 18, set by Bill Gullickson in 1980. As noted in this week's Sports Illustrated cover story, the scoreboard couldn't even keep up -- the strikeout display only counts to 12.

Baseball is going nuts for Strasmas every five days, so I can only imagine the giddiness felt inside the Nationals' front office. The team that didn't want to announce his first start until two weeks before has now let it be known that he'll pitch every fifth day until the All-Star break -- in essense, they're rearranging their rotation around the new kid. In doing so, the Nationals ensure (barring a rainout) that Strasburg will pitch twice on this current homestand, tonight and again on Wednesday, the final day of a six-game stretch back in D.C. Had he pitched every fifth game, he would have gone tomorrow and then again on Friday in Baltimore.

Oh, and about that -- by putting Strasburg on an every-fifth-day schedule, the Nationals ensure (barring, again, a rainout) that he will not pitch in Baltimore next weekend. That would've surely drawn a big crowd, perhaps a sellout, to Oriole Park, no doubt bringing a lot of Nationals fans up from the south -- and from the fanbase battleground between the two cities. Whether they meant it this way or not, that's a pretty big f-you to Orioles owner Peter Angelos, who did all he could to prevent Washington from getting a team and then made sure he got a sweetheart deal regarding television rights, relegating most Nationals games to MASN2.

After Wednesday's start, Strasburg will pitch in Atlanta -- those showdowns with Jason Heyward may stand out when writers cast their Rookie of the Year votes in September -- and then face the Mets at home during the Fourth of July weekend, probably Saturday the third. He would then make his final start of the first half on July 8 at home against the Padres.

Then it remains to be seen what they do with his schedule. They want to keep him at 160 total innings, and with 55 1/3 in the Minors and 12 1/3 so far in the Majors, he's already at 67 2/3. If he averages six innings in these next five starts before the break, that puts him at 97 2/3 -- leaving roughly just 10 more starts this season. Washington will no doubt be tempted to alter that plan if they get to his 10th start and find themselves fewer than five games out of a playoff spot, but it might play a part in setting up the second-half rotation. Do they give him nearly two weeks off and start him in the fifth game out of the break, on Tuesday, July 20? Do they go with a six-man rotation when (if) they get Jason Marquis back or Chien-Ming Wang is ready?

I do find myself drawn to Strasburg's starts. I was at the Trenton Thunder game on Sunday, but I DVR'd the Nationals-Indians game on TBS and watched Strasburg's 5 1/3 innings a day later. Tonight, the Mets and Yankees meet in the Bronx with the Amazin's on a seven-game winning streak (yes, against the lowly Orioles and Indians, but all on the road, which is definitely something for this team), but I may put that game on mute on the TV and watch Strasburg on MLB.TV -- with the White Sox TV feed so that I can hear Hawk Harrelson do his best to refrain from any praise of "the bad guy." I toyed with driving down to D.C. again today, but some car trouble and the current use of a rental and various other hassles had me decide against it. I hope to see him once this year, but it remains to be seen if the schedules -- the Nationals' and mine -- will allow it.

I'd like to experience just one of Strasburg's starts this year first-hand, whether in D.C. or elsewhere, because I was a bit too young to have seen Dwight Gooden in the mid-80s. First mentioned by Mets Police and echoed this week by Marty Noble, Gooden on a Friday night at Shea was an event (and "Gooden on a Friday night" should be the name of an essay or a play or something). I remember the buzz when Pedro Martinez would pitch a few years ago, and I have no doubt that the anticipation for Gooden's starts was much more elevated.

So far, Strasburg has nearly doubled the average daily attendance when he's pitched. His debut drew 40,315, nearly twice the 22,102 the Nationals are averaging -- and that's as of today, including that start of his. He also debuted on a Tuesday, which draws less on average to begin with, so he did bring in twice as many people as the Nats would otherwise get on a Tuesday night. On Sunday in Cleveland, 32,876 came out, just under twice the 16,604 the Indians had drawn. I just went onto the Nationals' site and put in for two tickets for tonight and found it only gave one option: $350 Lexus Presidents seats. Looks like another sellout.

I went back to look at Gooden's starts and compile the numbers from his first three seasons, 1984-86, which included his Rookie of the Year campaign ('84), his NL Cy Young season ('85) and the Mets' World Series season ('86), when they ran away with the NL East. Though Noble specifically cited Gooden's starts from mid-'84 through the first few months of '86, I averaged out his Friday night home starts for all three seasons: 38,385 over nine Friday night home games. Pretty damn good, and that doesn't include some high-drawing Saturday or Sunday games, or the 47,823 who came out on a Wednesday in September 1986 to watch him throw nine innings to clinch the division. Only twice in those nine Friday night games did the Mets draw fewer fans than their average for the season. One was June 1, 1984 -- 20,968 vs. the '84 average of 22,749 -- still early in the legend of Doctor K; the other was, surprisingly to me, July 4, 1986, when 28,557 came out in a year they averaged 34,168. I figured the holiday would bring more to the ballpark, but because it was a weekend, perhaps the throngs were barbecuing or at the beach. Or perhaps it was a day game.

Maybe at the end of the season, I'll go back and take a closer look at Doc's starts vs. Strasburg's, when we have more numbers to include. But if these first three dates are any indication, Saint Stephen is going to be a draw throughout the National League for the rest of the season.

What will the Nationals show us in 2010?

I've had a lot of fun with predictions on this site -- everywhere, really; why else do we play fantasy sports, college football pick'ems, postseason salary-cap games and NCAA basketball tournament pools? But I'm not sure I'll try to forecast the 2010 baseball season, division by division. Half of the divisions appear to be wide open -- the AL West, NL West and AL Central -- while the other three have three apparent front-runners (Cardinals, Yankees, Phillies) who could all be sitting pretty come Labor Day, but could also be in a two- or three-team dogfight by then.

But if there's one team more than any other that I might have trouble gauging, one squad that I could see losing 90 games but also see winning about 85, it's the Washington Nationals. And I'm not the only one. At the very least, the Nats improved themselves more than any other last-place team from 2009, and with the No. 1 pick in the June draft, they could very well have a better record on draft day than any of the other top-five teams.

That the Nationals' offseason moves improved the team is pretty much universally agreed upon. As a Mets fan, several of their acquisitions either worried or disappointed me: Matt Capps and Jason Marquis would've been good fits for the Mets and Ivan Rodriguez, while probably no better than Omir Santos at this point in his career, could prove to be a valuable mentor to Washington's pitchers and catchers -- and perhaps Bryce Harper? -- at the least. Chien-Ming Wang could be another great low-risk signing, though I wouldn't go so far as to say it puts them in the Wild Card discussion. How those improved pieces perform is another matter.

Baseball Prospectus' initial PECOTA standings had the Phillies winning the NL East with just 88 wins and the Marlins bringing up the rear with 76. The Nationals were in third place at 82-80. The latest (as of Feb. 25) show Philly with 90 victories and Washington at 76-86. Ninety wins is a significant benchmark; back when it was 88 for the Phils, I felt the division could be a dogfight; if you figure that at least three teams should finish with winning records, that puts three within six games of first place if the leader nets 88. But whether Washington finishes with 82 wins (and its first winning season since leaving Montreal) or 70 wins, it's an improvement over last year's 59.

The one big remaining question I -- and many others -- have with the Nats is their defense. They had the worst fielding percentage in baseball in 2009, were seventh-worst in UZR, made the most errors and fielded the fifth-most chances over the course of the season. They'll now be playing Adam Dunn at first base (-13.8 UZR) and, with the exception of Nyjer Morgan in center from the start of the season, they haven't upgraded any positions defensively. Adding a ground-ball pitcher in Marquis (not to mention Wang) won't help hide any defensive liabilities. As good as the offense should be, I'm just not sure the team's defense is good enough, nor do they have a pitching staff of strikeout pitchers, to improve by the nearly 20 wins it would take to finish 81-81. But a 10-15 game improvement is certainly possible.

The Pirates are another intriguing story, for entirely different reasons. With some solid young players -- but not enough of the right veterans -- will they finally get on the right track toward ending their string of losing seasons? I so desperately want to see the team with baseball's best ballpark field a product for which the fans can be proud, but it's not going to happen this year, or even next. But with the right philosophy and a strong farm system, there's no reason this club can't mirror the success the Twins have had.

Shea Goodbye: 75 to go

I'm not going to be able to post after every game, so I won't bother trying. But when I can, I'll continue the Shea Stadium countdown.

What we're left with after this weekend is a deflating loss to the Brewers -- a deflating series, losing two out of three after an uplifting two out of three taken from the Phillies. Winning Friday's game was nice, running the winning streak to three games, but losing Jose Reyes with a tight hamstring -- and then missing him for Saturday's and Sunday's games -- certainly hurt. It's too early, and the Mets have been too inconsistent, to say that Reyes' absence cost them in the two remaining games, particularly when Johan Santana gave up a couple of home runs Saturday and Oliver Perez and Jorge Sosa could not retain the lead the Mets had built after three innings on Sunday.

I don't mind Prince Fielder or even Rickie Weeks beating you with long balls, but Gabe Kapler? Gabe Kapler?? The guy was a Class A manager in 2007, and he's the slugging face of the Brewers' two wins in this series? Championship teams don't let that happen.

The Nationals are in town on Tuesday, providing another chance to win a series from the bottom half of the National League. Though Washington just snapped its nine-game losing streak. My plan this week is to go to Wednesday's game, then hit Thursday's Astros-Phillies matinee. There are a couple of other options both days, including some minor league matchups with first pitch schedule for noon or earlier. So many choices.

2008 preview: NL East

NEW YORK METS

In general

Last year is over. It is. So is the time to talk about it. That time was February, when players reported to Port St. Lucie. A slow start isn't a reason to talk about it again, nor is losing two out of three to the Phillies in the second week. But neither of those will happen, so it shouldn't be a problem. Final standings aside, there's still a case to be made that the Mets were the best team in the division in 2007. They led for 140 days; Philadelphia was on top just four days. The Phillies certainly played better down the stretch and showed they wanted it more. The Mets tried to act calm and collected, like they'd been there before, but this group really hadn't. They were in a pennant race, something they didn't really experience in 2006, when they had a comfortable lead that even a three-game sweep in Pittsburgh didn't threaten. That September, they clinched the next day. This year, you can be sure, the Mets won't take anything for granted.

The Mets' biggest concern -- their biggest rival, in a way -- will be age. Moises Alou is already out until May (I'm not believing any April projections with that guy), two key starting pitchers are in the twilights of their careers and coming off injuries or rehab in 2006, and they not only signed a 32-year-old second baseman with 42-year-old knees to a four-year deal, but they had about a dozen second base candidates miss time in Spring Training with injuries. But every team has injury issues. Hopefully, the Mets have the depth -- or go out and get it -- to get through the lean times this season.

This is still a lineup that can contend with any in the league. Jose Reyes will continue to mature, Carlos Beltran has put his rough first season in New York behind him and David Wright had as good a season as any in the NL. Carlos Delgado's '07 campaign was a big concern, but he's playing for one last contract this year, so here's hoping he has the same good fortune that so many players in that situation have had of late.

Where this division will be won is on the mound. There's no doubt that the acquisition of Johan Santana was the coup the Mets needed this offseason. He's the best pitcher in the game and a perennial Cy Young candidate. Bringing him in pushes everyone else back into a more suitable rotation slot, particularly Pedro Martinez, whose age and recent injuries made him a risky ace. And the young and impressive Oliver Perez (also in a contract year) and John Maine have the potential to make this the best top four in the league. I just hope Mike Pelfrey can get it together in '08; he has too much potential to start off 0-7 and not stick in the rotation.

So many discount the Mets' bullpen, but who outside of San Diego and Chicago really has a slam-dunk bullpen? Starting at the back, Billy Wagner remains one of the best closers in the league, Aaron Heilman has proven so valuable as a setup man that the Mets have refused to move him into the rotation even when he could've helped there, Duaner Sanchez looked good in spring ball and will work to get his arm strength and stamina back up before joining the team, and even Jorge Sosa has been a strong long man. The issue will be more Willie Randolph's use of his relievers than their execution. Perhaps taking the wrong page from Joe Torre's managerial handbook, Randolph overused his bullpen to the point that it struggled in September. Fresher arms through the first five months should mean better results in the final one.

What I'm looking forward to seeing

Jose Reyes may very well be the best shortstop in the game, but his detractors are finding fewer and fewer things to criticize. His plate discipline is no longer an issue after he brought his walks up to a nearly 1:1 ratio with his strikeouts. The only thing left is his maturity and makeup -- as energetic and fun-loving as he is, he found himself in the dog house a couple of times in '07 when Randolph benched him for not running out popups that landed fair. He shouldn't be making those mistakes anymore, and more rest in '08 should keep him fresh for the stretch run. Put him in Citizens Bank Park, and he'll hit 25 home runs too. In 2008, the average, runs and steals will be there. I expect the power and discipline will be, too.

Other fun things to look for: Santana's dominance, Pedro's perseverance, Pelfrey's potential realized, Ollie and Maine taking the next step, and Wright winning that MVP that slipped from his grasp last year when his team crumbled around him.

ATLANTA BRAVES

In general

After so many years of Atlanta dominance, I wasn't quite sure I could believe that it was the third-place team yet again in 2007. For a while, it looked like the Braves wouldn't be. They took two out of three from the Mets in every series before the All-Star break and led the division for 29 days, but none after May 15. But they faded through August, including a home sweep to the Mets at the end of the month. I still think they're counting on too much from Chipper Jones, Mike Hampton and even John Smoltz, all of whom have age and/or injury issues. Plus, Andruw Jones is gone, and Mark Kotsay cannot fill those shoes, even after Andruw's down year in '07.

Atlanta does get a full season from Mark Teixeira, who's 27 and in his contract year. He's next winter's top free agent, with what figures to be no fewer than four teams seriously chasing him. First, there's the Braves, who will be going after the Georgia Tech product and may take advantage of a year without Andruw's salary to make a competitive offer. Second is his hometown Orioles, who will need a veteran cornerstone after a year of development from just about every other player in their lineup. Third and fourth, you'll have the two New York teams with first-base openings and some big contracts coming off the books -- more for the Yankees, who won't have Jason Giambi, Bobby Abreu, Andy Pettitte or Mike Mussina in 2009.

I'm not as sold on the pitching. Smoltz is now on the DL, though he should be back to face the Mets in the season's second series. Hampton -- please. Tim Hudson remains a big-game pitcher for them, but as good a guy as Tom Glavine is and what he did for the Mets for the better part of his five years in New York, his final start at Shea was nothing short of disastrous. Was it the beginning of the end? Too soon to tell, because in the end, it was just one start. I love Rafael Soriano as the closer, but the middle relief in recent years has not been as good as that of past Braves championship teams.

What I'm looking forward to seeing

Not much, because despite two years of third-place finishes, I still don't like the Braves. I've always been a fan of Teixeira, so hopefully he has a down year and the Mets sign him at a relative discount (relative to what he should make). I'm not sure what kind of reaction Glavine will get at Shea, but my guess would be an unfavorable one. I can see the fans remembering the final day against the Marlins more than any near-no-hitters or Opening Day wins he had. The final line on Glavine's Mets career: 61-56, 3.97 ERA, 1.38 WHIP. His first start, a 15-2 Opening Day loss to the Cubs in 2003: 3 2/3 8 hits, 5 earned runs, 4 walk, 2 strikeouts. His last one:
1/3, 5 hits, 7 earned runs, 2 walks, 0 strikeouts.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

In general

The Mets' rivalry with the Braves never seemed to be that heated to me, except when they played. Perhaps it was distance, but more likely it was the fact that it was so one-sided. The Mets were the younger brother trying to knock the older brother off the couch, similar to the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry ... until 2004. But now, New York has a rivalry with Philadelphia in baseball. In some ways, the Mets-Phillies rivalry was similar to Mets-Braves, with the Mets in the Braves' position of superiority (they've had more winning seasons and more playoff appearances than the Phillies in the past decade) and the Phillies playing the part of the young upstarts. Now, it's a true, full-blown face-off, with many picking the clubs as the top two in the division.

I don't buy it, for one reason: Pitching. The Phillies, as I said before, led the division for just four days and won by one game. Yet they did it with 11 starts from Kyle Lohse down the stretch and 12 from Jon Leiber over the season -- and didn't feel a need to re-sign either one. They did it with a 6.29 ERA over 30 starts from Adam Eaton, one of the worst ERAs for a full-time starter in baseball history. And they did it with a magical 10-4 performance over 20 starts from rookie Kyle Kendrick, despite his 3.64 K/9 ratio.

Brett Myers returns to the front of the rotation, which helps, and Cole Hamels may be the best No. 2 starter outside of Arizona, but after that they're relying on 45-year-old Jamie Moyer (5.01 ERA in '07), Kendrick and Eaton. Myers is back in the rotation because of the acquisition of closer Brad Lidge, but he had knee surgery in the spring and starts on the DL -- meaning shaky 38-year-old Tom Gordon begins the season closing games. When he returns, Lidge has to adjust to another homer-heavy ballpark, recover from his surgery and overcome blown saves in front of the tough Philly fans. If I were a Phillies fan, the bullpen would concern me, but the rotation would terrify me.

Luckily for them, the Phillies play in a glorified minor league park. Well, a big league park with a minor league left field wall. Jimmy Rollins, free-agent-to-be Pat Burrell and free-agent gone Aaron Rowand have all taken advantage of it. Rollins and Burrell will again, as will new third baseman Pedro Feliz. But there are holes now in center and right fields, where I'm not sure Shane Victorino (center) is an everyday player (I know he played a lot in 2007, but we'll have to see if he can adjust to pitchers exposing his weaknesses on a regular basis) and the combo of Jayson Werth and Geoff Jenkins in right isn't any worse than what the Mets are going with in Ryan Church. When you're counting on Burrell to be the anchor in the outfield, the best hitter of the bunch, you'd better be pretty sure of what you're getting from him.

What I'm looking forward to seeing

A collapse, a plunge, a slow start followed by a long summer and a double-digit deficit and barely-.500 record in September. What can I say? I've got my team, and this isn't it. Look, there are some good players and better guys, particularly Ryan Howard and Chase Utley. Utley is the MVP of this team, regardless of the last two writers' votes, and he probably would've won it last year if he hadn't been out for a month. Howard will have to avoid 200 strikeouts or risk seeing his batting average plummet for a second straight season (.313 in 2006, .268 in '07) and his homers take another dip (58 to 47), but he should reach 40 again, easily. And Hamels will have to put his unhappiness with his contract behind him for one more season. Look, kid, I know you're confident in your abilities and all, but you've had one full, healthy season as a big leaguer. You've shown you can do it, now show you can do it again. Then you'll have earned your payday. There's nothing wrong with making $500,000.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS

In general

The Nationals signed Odalis Perez to a minor league deal on Feb. 19. He was seen as insurance in case oft-injured John Patterson or Shawn Hill was not ready to start the season. Patterson has since been released, Hill is indeed injured, and Perez will be the Opening Day starter on Sunday night as the team opens Nationals Park. Wow. I've often chuckled at the pie-in-the-sky expectations some with this team have had this offseason, but how do you say those things when your rotation is Perez, Matt Chico, Tim Redding, Jason Bergmann and Hill?

There's a lot to like with Ryan Zimmerman, Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes, but the team will have to watch Dukes -- and, to a lesser extent, Milledge -- as he adjusts to a new team and new city, considering his history. I'm all for second chances and I hope Dukes can turn his life and career around the way Josh Hamilton did, though Dukes' transgressions didn't involve hard-core drugs and life-threatening choices. But 100 RBIs from each of them, including Zimmerman, who should reach that mark? (There are those expectations again.) To do that, you need to have guys on base, and if Cristian Guzman is going to be the leadoff hitter with his projected .310 OBP, there's no way Milledge gets to 100, especially if he's hitting second. And Dukes will have to play enough to do so, but when Wily Mo Pena returns, Dukes may return to fourth-outfielder status, unless he starts off on a tear. Zimmerman had 91 RBIs last year and no one else had more than 74. The new ballpark should increase scoring, but I don't think it will be by that much to get three 100-RBI guys.

What I'm looking forward to seeing

I'd like to see this team take another step forward, though I would prefer they do that mostly against the Braves and Phillies. They need pitching, and that will come, but by 2010, we could be seeing a four-deep division with the Mets, Phillies, Braves and Nationals competing like the D-backs, Rockies, Padres and Dodgers will be in the West this year. And I'm looking forward to my as-yet-undetermined trip to D.C. to see the new ballpark. Plus, I'm anticipating Opening Night, when the Braves and Nats start the season in earnest on ESPN.

FLORIDA MARLINS

In general

This certainly is Hanley Ramirez's team now, isn't it? Gone are Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, leaving Ramirez as the lone star, the face of the franchise, and the clear Marlins representative in New York in July for the All-Star Game. Ramirez and Dan Uggla ... and what? There's Mike Jacobs and Josh Willingham, who are slowly but surely rounding into solid players. There's Jeremy Hermida, an outfielder who came up with a bang (a grand slam in his first at-bat) but struggled with injuries last year. And there's a hothead in Scott Olsen as the only recognizable face in the rotation, with the possible exception of Ricky Nolasco. I mean, this team's Opening Day starter is Mark Hendrickson! Even among basketball big men in the league, he's still only No. 2, behind San Diego's Chris Young.

I really don't know what else there is to say about a team that dumps its best players every four years -- is this a college program? -- leaving its fans to wait another year or two for the prospects to mature. The two biggest pieces of the Cabrera/Willis deal are outfielder Cameron Maybin, who's starting the season in the minors, and pitcher Andrew Miller, who struggled mightily in the start I saw him pitch against the Dodgers in Vero Beach.

What I'm looking forward to seeing

How will losing Cabrera affect Ramirez's production? And will he run less, as manager Fredi Gonzalez would like? And when will they start building that new stadium? In 2009, Dolphin Stadium will be the oldest ballpark in the NL East. Amazing.

Not sure what to think about the Milledge deal

I'm confused by this deal. Two things are obvious, or seem so:

1.) Johnny Estrada will be flipped elsewhere.
2.) The Mets aren't getting Johan Santana.

Brian Schneider will team with Ramon Castro, perhaps as something close to a straight platoon, since they bat left and right, respectively. And since the Mets just signed Castro to a two-year deal, Estrada is the one out. He can also be non-tendered and become a free agent, which makes the deal to get him basically a Guillermo Mota contract dump. Nothing wrong with that, either.

As for Santana, I don't see how the Mets could land him if, as reports have said, the Twins aren't wild about the Mets' pitching prospects and now they've dealt one of their younger outfielders. Would Omar Minaya trade Carlos Gomez away now that Milledge is gone? I doubt it. It looks like Church and Gomez will team up to be the right-field platoon ... and then both will start the 40 games Moises Alou misses.

This does balance out the Mets, as Marty Noble points out, though Bill Ladson's source may be misguided if he thinks Church will be the everyday right fielder. I'm not so sure of that. Shawn Green is definitely gone now. Church is effectively Green, minus four years. In 14 more games, Church hit five more homers, drove in 24 more runs and hit .019 points lower (.291 to .272), which really isn't too bad. Church is a better defender, too.

It makes for an interesting dynamic in D.C. It's clear Milledge has talent at the plate, and his defensive shortcomings were one reason the Mets were willing to deal him. But he's also had attitude issues, and so putting him on a team with Wily Mo Pena and, perhaps more importantly, Dmitri Young will be interesting. To his credit, though, Young had a stellar season under the radar, causing no problems on or off the field. He really didn't have a history as a malcontent, but in the sports and entertainment worlds these days, one bad year can make or break your reputation. Plus, it's not a bad outfield -- on paper -- with Pena, Milledge and Austin Kearns around in right.

So now do the Nats go with Jesus Flores as their catcher (whom they plucked from the Mets in the Rule V draft in December 2006)? He was a very limited backup last year because the Nats had to keep him on the 25-man roster or offer him back to the Mets. I'm not even sure he reached Double-A in the Mets' system, so he could be ticketed for the minors for more seasoning. The options on the free-agent market are slim. There seem to be only three who would be worthy of regular (at least four or five games a week) No. 1 duty: Michael Barrett and perhaps Rod Barajas and Paul Lo Duca. But Lo Duca wants, I believe, a ridiculous four-year deal and has also said he wants to go to a team "committed to winning." I don't doubt that the Nats are committed to winning, but I'm sure Lo Duca really means "on the verge of winning." The Nats could be in that position by the end of a hypothetical four-year deal for Lo Duca, but unless their pitching takes immense leaps and bounds forward this year and next, that's unlikely.

I don't see this deal quite as one-sided as Keith Law does, in part because he's going on potential. Yes, Milledge has the potential to be the best player in the deal, but he's not. Yet. At the moment, it's an even trade that helps both teams. We'll wait to see how well Milledge develops before truly evaluating it. Ever since the Scott Kazmir deal, Mets fans are ready to leap off the ledge when a prospect is discussed in trade talks, but they're not all going to turn into stars. Alex Escobar was once the top prospect in the Mets system and seen as a five-tool guy, and his career hasn't gone anywhere.

Milledge's will go somewhere, but until it does, you can't kill the Mets for dealing from a position of strength (and outfield is probably their strongest area throughout the system) to fill two key -- and starting -- needs. Teams these days are holding onto their prospects because they're cheaper than free agents and established stars, not because they're becoming gun-shy. Boston gave up some pretty solid players in Anibal Sanchez and Hanley Ramirez to land Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell, and they may do it again to land Santana. The Yankees won't discuss Joba Chamberlain, but that's really as simple a decision as it was to designate Derek Jeter the shortstop of the future from 1995 on. But if Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes remain to form the top three of the Yankees rotation in the new stadium in 2009, only then will there truly be a new way of thinking when it comes to dealing prospects.

Because the Mets are one of those teams where money isn't as much of an issue, they may be better off signing a marginal free-agent pitcher instead of betting the farm (system) on a trade. The Twins have better offers from the Red Sox and Yankees for Santana, and the loser of that sweepstakes (which could be both teams, should Minnesota back down) could still use the package for Oakland's Dan Haren. The O's will probably hold any team hostage before dealing Erik Bedard (the way the Marlins are in regards to Miguel Cabrera), so as a Mets fan, I'd rather see the team hold onto Gomez, Fernando Martinez, Mike Pelfrey, Phil Humber, Aaron Heilman, et. al. and take a chance on a Bartolo Colon, Carlos Silva or Livan Hernandez. Silva will cost a bit, but Colon should come cheaply with an incentive-laded contract that will pay him more if he stays healthy and pitches more. Hernandez would fill nicely Tom Glavine's 200 innings and should come at a rather reasonable price -- that is, cheaper than Silva.

Hawk and Jackson are just gone

In watching baseball at work, I have the privilege -- or the chore -- of listening to all of the various broadcasting teams around the country. The Dodgers' Vin Scully remains the cream of the crop and the last of the legends. There will never be another like him. Ever. Scully continues to fly solo, calling the game as a one-way conversation with the fans, no partner necessary.

Others I am fond of for their alertness and knowledge (the Mets' team of Gary Cohen and Ron Darling) or their wackiness and insanity, at least in blowouts (Boston's Don Orsillo and Jerry Remy). WGN's Len Kasper and Bob Brenly are solid, though not spectacular, and Arizona's Daron Sutton and Mark Grace are just nuts.

But the ones I can't stand are the extreme homers, the announcers who bleed the team's colors and make no effort to be impartial. Actually, forget impartial, because these days, fans want their announcers to be favorable toward their teams, and it's not all that bad if they skew a little toward the home team. Honesty would be nice, though. What I can't stand are the broadcast teams that argue on the air that a close play that went against their team should have gone in favor of it, but then when replays clearly show the call to be correct, they make no effort to correct themselves and basically ignore the video evidence in front of them -- and in front of the millions of fans watching.

Among those that are tough to listen to, in ascending order of pain are the Marlins' Rich Waltz and Tommy Hutton, the Nationals' Bob Carpenter and Don Sutton and the White Sox duo of Ken "Hawk" Harrelson and Darrin Jackson.

Harrelson and Jackson clinched the title on Sunday.

Check out the video clip "Guillen gets ejected" at the top of the White Sox game story. It's four minutes and 20 seconds long, but in the first 10 seconds or so, you can see the play develop and understand what is going to happen and what the call should be. Feel free to watch it yourself before reading further. See if you can spot what Harrelson and Jackson refused to see.

In the final four minutes of the clip, Harrelson and Jackson don't even come close to grasping what has happened, don't notice through their black-and-white rage that the umpires are correct, or make an effort to glance at their replay monitors which, if the guys in the truck were doing their jobs, would show them the play over again. Though Comcast SportsNet shows several replays during the clip, none of them show the runner rounding second. Had they done that, perhaps the announcers -- OK, at least the fans -- would've seen the play and understood why there was a reversal.

At the 8- or 9-second mark, you can see the Cubs runner rounding second, Angel Pagan, come in contact with the White Sox shortstop, Juan Uribe. The umpire in the foreground, the third-base ump, raises his arms and points toward second base. He's calling obstruction on Uribe. Perhaps he should have been more forceful with his call, making more noise and stopping the play dead. Instead, the White Sox play it out, the Cubs get caught in several rundowns -- "pickles" as Harrelson insists on calling them, like he's watching a bunch of 8-year-olds in Lincoln Park -- and two outs are made. Or seem to be made.

Immediately after the play is over, crew chief Joe West, the second-base umpire, calls the umpires together to discuss what happened. When they start putting Cubs back on the bases, Harrelson and Jackson begin to grow outraged. It's hilarious, really. Harrelson calls it "B.S." several times; Jackson tries to say the umpires didn't adhere to their individual responsibilities and someone missed the call. The whole time, like in a movie, those of us who noticed the obstruction can only laugh at their homerism or frown at their stupidity.

The Chicago Tribune's Teddy Greenstein was on top of it, too. In fact, at the end of the column, Greenstein quotes Harrelson after he'd finally noticed a replay, a comment that came after the clip on MLB.com ended: "Anytime I've ever seen an obstruction play, they call a dead ball. A dead ball means that everything stops right there." That may be true, Hawk, and that may be on the fault of the third-base umpire for not screaming the play dead immediately. And it may be in part because Pagan and Felix Pie, who was tagged out at home, are rookies and likely more prone to running the play out without a more forceful call from the men in blue.

At the 2:28 mark, Jackson says that if there was ever a case for instant replay in baseball, this play would be a good example of the need for it. Unfortunately for them and other White Sox fans, in this case, instant replay would've showed the umpires got it right in the end, which should be all that matters, no?

At the end of the clip, Jackson says, "I just don't know what they could have been looking at. It was really a straightfoward, simple play."

It certainly was -- and you guys got it wrong.

So long Sammy

Apparently for Sammy Sosa, the chance to reach 600 career home runs is not worth the "humiliation" of earning a roster spot in spring training or not being given a starting job.

It's been reported that Sosa is considering retiring rather than accepting the only contract offer he's received this offseason, from the Washington Nationals. (Which, if he does accept it, would make him the first big-name player to play for both the Baltimore Orioles and the Nats. Keith Osik, Hector Carrasco, Deivi Cruz and New Jersey native Jeffrey Hammonds became the inaugural members of that club last season.)

[Note: On Wednesday, he did reject the offer.]

While there are some parallels to Sosa's situation and that of Jerry Rice, who retired last year rather than accept a limited role as the fourth receiver on the Denver Broncos' depth chart. The one that stands out most to me is that Rice retired despite needing just three receiving touchdowns for 200 in his career, a number he probably could have reached even as a fourth receiver. Sosa needs only 12 home runs to become just the fifth player in major league baseball history to slug 600. He hit 14 last year in 102 games.

But Sosa has another significant factor, that of course being steroids. He was an Oriole last year when Rafael Palmeiro — one of the players with whom Sosa appeared before Congress nearly a year ago — was revealed to have tested positive, an announcement that came just days after his milestone 3,000th career hit. Not only would Sosa now be playing his home games in front of some of those same members of Congress, but he would certainly have to put up with further speculation as he neared the magical 600. Or maybe he's just afraid that hitting 600 would bring more recognition from Congress.

If Sosa wants to retire, that's certainly his right. There's no doubt he's made enough money to secure himself for the rest of his life, especially in his native Dominican Republic. Heck, he "earned" $17 million for batting .221 last summer. I'm sure with the right advisors and investments, I could make $17 million last the rest of my life, and I'm eight years younger than the 37-year-old Sosa. There are, however, three notable players — former superstars — who have swallowed their pride and accepted what they might consider to be below-market, even "humiliating" contracts to keep playing, perhaps because they have something to prove: Mike Piazza, Nomar Garciaparra and Frank Thomas. Piazza and Thomas could have easily retired with their respective 397 and 448 home runs rather than accepting $2 million from the Padres for this season (as Piazza did) and $500,000 from the Athletics (Thomas, though it could reach $2.6 million with bonuses).

I used to like Sosa. In 2003, I wanted to believe that his corked bat episode — which came to light just two days after Congress' resolution congratulating him on 500 home runs — was a mistake, one of the few things to which I'll admit I agreed with Bud Selig. But Sammy seems to have grown cranky in his old age. Remember when he blew up at Sports Illustrated's Rick Reilly in 2002 when the columnist asked him to take a steroids test? Looking back, maybe that was the beginning of the end for the Slammin' One. That was before the corked bat, before the sneeze that broke his back, before the man who once knew enough English to understand the humor in saying, "Beisbol has been berry, berry good to me," left his statements before Congress to his lawyer.

At this point, however, I don't really care how he goes out. In a what-have-you-done-lately world, Sosa's more than used up the goodwill from the Great Home Run Chase of '98. It'd be nice to see the milestone of 600 home runs — he'd be the first Latino ballplayer in the club — because if Barry Bonds can be praised for it, Sosa deserves to be too. But I'm not going to lament his absence from the game if he's taken his last at bat.

No Short-age of good stories

It hasn't happened in the minors since 1961. The Pacific Coast League hasn't seen it since 1933. And the major leagues haven't experienced it since 1941. It's a .400 season, and Rick Short of the New Orleans Zephyrs is in pursuit.

Short, a Washington Nationals farmhand, is just another feel-good story in the feel-good story of the Nationals' first season in D.C. He made his major-league debut earlier this season after 11 seasons in the minors. And now he's trying to join the likes of Aaron Pointer, Ox Eckhardt and Ted Williams.

With a 2-for-3, two-home run performance last night, Short's at .402 for the season with 17 games to go and enough at bats to qualify for the league batting title, a requirement he reached last night. He'll have a bit of a challenge in front of him -- as if hitting .400 weren't hard enough, he'll have to do it as the Zephyrs travel from New Orleans to Omaha (as they did last night), back to New Orleans, on to Oklahoma and then up to Iowa. All without a day off -- at least not a team day off; the Zephyrs play those 17 games in the next 17 days.

Aaron Pointer was the last minor-leaguer -- and therefore, the last player in affiliated ball -- to hit .400 when he batted .402 for the Salisbury Braves of the Western Carolina League in 1961. Though the history of minor-league baseball features several leagues with the same name that have no linear history, the WCL in 1980 became today's South Atlantic League. Pointer went on to reach the majors in 1963 and was part of the only all-rookie lineup in major-league history. He also had a few sisters who went on to a decent singing career.

Ox Eckhardt played for the San Francisco-based Mission Reds in 1933 when he hit the improbable .414. In 1928, the year before he first played in the Pacific Coast League, Eckhardt scored three touchdowns as a fullback for the New York Giants. He went on to a brief major-league career.

New Orleans plays at Omaha tonight as the Rick Short countdown continues.

Last of the Expos

The fans in Washington have taken to the Nationals as everyone — outside of Peter Angelos — expected. You'll even see some Expos caps in the crowd at RFK Stadium, as I did on Saturday, a sign that those who come out to the ballgame aren't simply there because it's the new fad in town. These folks know their baseball.

Up in Vermont, the Expos name lives for one more season. I seem to remember the reason being that Major League Baseball — perhaps in an attempt to try to make everyone forget not only how badly baseball in Montreal crashed in the final years there, but also how poorly MLB has handled the situation (they still don't have a new owner for the Nationals, despite having had the bids in hand for months) — decreed that the Vermont Expos must have a new nickname for next season. (I'm pulling for Green Mountain Boys or Chunky Monkeys.) If any team should be allowed to keep the name, it's Vermont, located as it is along the Canadian border. I like the idea of holding onto that piece of history, but it's not meant to be.

The Expos are struggling on the field, though, with the worst record in the New York-Penn League. And the copy desk at the Rutland Herald is struggling too, if they (and their writer) think the road to RFK goes from Vermont to Savannah to Potomac to Trenton to New Orleans. Wrong capital city there. (But how appropriate that the team, which has been in existence for decades, has the Senators nickname? I can't believe it's taken me 2/3 of the season to realize that.)

As I plan to do with the naming contests for the Norwich Navigators and the new State College team, I'll stay on top of the naming developments in Vermont.

Day 2: At least Washington's first in something

"First in war, first in peace, and last in the American League." That's what they used to say about the old Washington Senators, the hapless bunch of baseball men who couldn't do much in two separate attempts at playing baseball in Washington, D.C. So this time, when they brought baseball back to the capital, perhaps they figured they should try the other league. Now -- well, as of July 23, 2005 -- they're at least first in the National League (East). If two out of three ain't bad, then I guess one out of three is ... a start?

In posting Friday night's account of the Mets game (see below), I found myself falling into bed at 1:30 a.m. on Saturday. I set the alarm for a not-late-enough 6:30, figuring on at least half an hour of snooze time onto the end of that. And it might have worked out that way ... had I remembered to turn on the alarm. So at 8:15, I looked at the clock and thought, "Shoot. I suppose I need to get going."

An hour later, I was in the car and soon I was zipping down the New Jersey Turnpike, Washington-bound, following the signs that said SOUTH. I find it sad, as I make a quick stop at the Walt Whitman Rest Area, that we're about 90 miles into New Jersey, and the most prominent thing when you walk into the gift shop is a table covered with "I Love NY" t-shirts. It didn't occur to me at the time that, of all the service areas on the Turnpike, I choose the Whitman one for my quick restroom run, considering his 1846 dispatch to the Brooklyn Eagle: “In our sundown perambulations of late through the outer parts of Brooklyn, we have observed several parties of youngsters playing ‘base,’ a certain game of ball ... Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our close rooms...the game of ball is glorious.”

Upon arriving in Maryland, I come to an empty house. Matt, the college friend I'd be going to the game and then staying with, was not home. I had called from the road to inform him that I was running late and he didn't have to rush home from his girlfriend's for my planned noon arrival. But I hadn't been specific enough.

"Yo!" he says when he answers my call.

"I'm sitting outside your house ..." I say in a mock-stalker voice.

"Oh ... whoops," he replies.

"I suppose I should have actually given you a time at which I would be arriving," I said. But soon, after bringing another college pal, Brad, into the conversation, we came up with a remedy: I would get back on the Beltway and the three of us would meet in Arlington, Virginia, where Matt was and near Brad's home. We were to meet at Baileys Pub and Grille at the Ballston Common Mall. When Brad first mentioned the place, some interference in our cell phone connection garbled his voice a little, so on the drive down, I tried to figure out why a suburban shopping mall in Virginia -- a commonwealth full of its own rich Colonial history -- would choose to name itself after a New England village green, Boston Common. As it turns out, the mall is roughly the size of Boston Common, so the similar name is appropriate.

After lunch and ice cream, talk of baseball and bachelor parties, Matt and I swing by his house again to leave my car as we head across the District to RFK Stadium. Traffic and then unexpected closure of Matt's regular parking lot -- the former, we believe, caused at least in part by the latter -- prevents us from getting through the turnstiles in time for the first pitch. Or the 31st pitch. Not only do we listen to the top of the first on the car radio, but we get into the bottom of the inning before we park and start walking up the hill to the stadium. Inside, we find Cristian Guzman batting -- a term used loosely when it comes to the .180 hitter -- with two outs and a 4-0 Nationals lead. Settling into our seats, I spot a fan walking in the field seats below wearing a Guzman jersey and I wonder if he'll get his money back. I'm sure the Nationals would like theirs back.

Opened in 1962 for the second incarnation of the Senators, RFK slid in front of Shea Stadium to become the NL's third-oldest ballpark, behind Wrigley Field and Dodger Stadium. It certainly looks and feels like a 1960s multi-purpose stadium. Now that the Redskins have moved out, RFK -- or The Rob, as Brad calls it -- again splits its time morphing from a baseball stadium to a football one and back, only now it hosts international football in the form of D.C. United and Major League Soccer. There are no box seats, I notice as I look down. The best they could do was put new, soft blue cushioning on several sections behind home plate and put a table into a small box down in the front row directly behind the catcher. At some point, it's clear that they decided they needed more premium (as in high-priced, not high-quality) seats, so they cut off the continuous walkway by inserting seats at intervals that stretch from behind the first-base dugout around to the one on the third-base side.

With the score already 4-0, there's not much left for us; Washington cruised from there. Tony Armas Jr. carried a no-hitter into the sixth inning before a walk to Craig Biggio ahead of Lance Berkman soon becames a 4-2 Nats lead: Berkman deposited a pitch over the right-field wall for the first hit of the game.

The atmosphere is as electric as it was on Opening Day, now that Washington has risen to first place and we're just over two months away from the end of the season. Matt has become friends with his fellow season-ticket holders, chatting with the two men to his right and the family behind us. One of the regulars points out how the numbers on the outfield wall designating the distance from home plate have moved. Those that read 380 feet that were once in right-center and left-center field are now closer to their respective foul lines, more straightaway right and left. First it was players who couldn't believe their drives to the gaps were falling short of 380 feet; they argued that it was at least 20 feet deeper. When the grumbling got louder, someone decided this matter needed to be settled. Lasers were involved and, indeed, those 380-foot power alleys are actually 394-foot gaps where home runs go to die.

For two nights now, I've been a part of large, spirited crowds. Washington's doesn't quite measure up to Merengue Night madness, but those were special circumstances. Both the Mets and the Nats are teams comprised of loose, laid-back players who feed off of the fans. When Shea starts rockin', you can see the Mets players quietly taking it in, the energy of the fans spurring them on. The same thing happens in Washington, where 81 home games likely won't be enough to make up for 33 years without a team. In two nights, I've been among 92,953 spirited, knowledgeable boosters. In New York, the fans have suffered through high expectations and low results for years now; in Washington, each home run, each big hit, each key strikeout seems to be followed by a release of cheers and applause that have been building since the Nixon Administration. By that logic, the fans in Philadelphia should be exponentially louder -- they've been stuck with underachieving, underwhelming, hapless teams for decades. How they'll be on a scorching Sunday afternoon at a sparkling new ballpark remains to be seen.

Orioles-Nationals gate comparison No. 5

The major league teams in Baltimore and Washington have now played at home on the same day 13 times this season. Well, there have been 13 dates, but a rainout in Baltimore last week (yet not in Washington, interestingly enough) meant the O's lost a game. (It will be made up Monday, Sept. 26, a day after the Nationals finish a series at home with the Mets.)

Thursday, July 7
Mets at Washington: 44,492
Red Sox at Orioles: 47,389

So having the Red Sox in town helps make up for last week's rainout with the Yankees in the visiting dugout.

Out of these 12 days on which both the Nationals and Orioles actually played a home game, Baltimore has drawn the bigger crowds seven times to Washington's five. It would have been 8-5, surely, without the rainout since the Orioles average 40,000 with the Yankees in town and Washington had only 31,000 that night. It's also worth noting that two of Washington's better crowds came on weeknights when Baltimore was hosting the Tigers and drew less than 20,000 (including the smallest crowd in Camden Yards history). Washington took both nights with less than 26,000.

For review, here are each of the dates, repeating yesterday at the end:

Saturday, April 16
Baltimore vs. Yankees: 48,598
Washington vs. Diamondbacks: 34,943

Sunday, April 17
Baltimore vs. Yankees: 47,883
Washington vs. Diamondbacks: 35,463

Monday, April 18
Baltimore vs. Detroit: 16,301 (smallest crowd in Camden Yards history)
Washington vs. Florida: 24,003

Tuesday, April 19
Baltimore vs. Detroit: 18,009
Washington vs. Florida: 25,990

Wednesday, April 20
Baltimore vs. Boston: 36,478 (the Red Sox will bring crowds)
Washington vs. Atlanta: 27,374

Thursday, April 21
Baltimore vs. Boston: 40,419
Washington vs. Atlanta: 30,728 (this for a day game)

Friday, April 29
Baltimore vs. Tampa Bay: 24,910
Washington vs. the Mets: 30,627

Saturday, April 30
Baltimore vs. Tampa Bay: 19,920
Washington vs. the Mets: 40,913

Sunday, May 1
Baltimore vs. Tampa Bay: 30,784
Washington vs. the Mets: 27,333

Tuesday, June 28
Baltimore vs. Yankees(so you know it's going to be high): 47,465
Washington vs. Pirates: 35,828

Wednesday, June 29
Baltimore vs. Yankees: Rained out (killer)
Washington vs. Pirates: 31,213

Thursday, June 30
Baltimore vs. Indians: 27,272
Washington vs. Pirates: 37,361

Thursday, July 7
Baltimore vs. Red Sox: 47,389
Washington vs. Mets: 44,492

Orioles-Nationals gate comparison No. 4

So I was asleep at the turnstiles last week, when the Orioles and Nationals had three home dates in common. It had been so long (nearly two months) that they'd both been at home that it wasn't on my radar. So let's look at their attendance figures:

Tuesday, June 28
Pirates at Washington: 35,828
Yankees at Baltimore (so you know it's going to be high): 47,465

Wednesday, June 29
Pirates at Washington: 31,213
Yankees at Baltimore: Rained out (killer)

Thursday, June 30
Pirates at Washington: 37,361
Indians at Baltimore: 27,272

There's one more common date before the break, tomorrow, so after those games I'll break down the head-to-head numbers further, and sometime during the three-day lull I'll look at their overall attendance. But entering tonight's games (with the Nationals at home against the Mets and the Orioles in New York), Washington ranked 13th in the majors with an average of 32,812 while Baltimore was 15th at 31,735. The Orioles, despite a two-month run at the top of the AL East, are drawing about 3,000 fewer fans per game than they did in 2004. However, the Northeast's long, cold spring has affected attendance at most parks, and the O's have a chance to rebound with the summer crowds.

Washington is indeed one of the best stories of the season so far, but how far will it go? Can the Nationals keep up this pace? Can they continue to win 77 percent (23-7) of their one-run games? Can they continue to play 10 games above their expected record? Are they a 51-32 team, or a 42-42 team? Can they continue to have the best bullpen record (20-10) in the National League with the fourth-best bullpen ERA (4.08)?

I'm dubious. I look at this team a little like the 2003 Kansas City Royals, though at 51-32 through 83 games, Washington is six games better than the Royals were at the same point (45-38). For now, I have to root for the Nats to slide while the Mets have a slim chance to be a part of this race. But if Washington can continue to hold off the Braves and the underachieving Marlins, I'll be buying that D.C. cap -- the one I've been meaning to get, since it's my initials anyway -- and pulling for the worst-to-first story.

Orioles and Nationals at the gate, April review

Peter Angelos is going to make out like a bandit. That's going to be my prediction, now that we're one month into the season. The slimy lawyer bitched and moaned (and probably cried) that his franchise, the Baltimore Orioles, would be so damaged by the presence of a team in Washington that he held up the move of the Montreal Expos for two years, then got a sweetheart deal out of the cable network that will show both Nationals and Orioles games. However, as my friends in Washington tell me, when the Nationals and Orioles both play at the same time, guess which one is put on the air? In a small bit of just retribution, Angelos is being sued by Comcast, which has the rights to Orioles games on cable through 2006.

After Angelos claimed that "there are no real baseball fans in D.C.," he tried to avoid having a Washington team presumably continue to take away from his own team's declining attendance figures. What he seemed to forget, though, is that after the novelty of a gorgeous ballpark wears off, the sure-fire way to get people to come to your games is to put together an exciting, winning team.

So here we are now at the end of April, a day into May. Baltimore stands atop the AL East, the toughest division in baseball in which to crack the top two (not to be confused with the toughest division in baseball). They have a four-game lead as of this morning -- on Boston and Toronto, not even the Yankees, who have just finished the second-worst April since George Steinbrenner bought the team. Only the 1984 club, which was chasing the juggernaut Tigers, was more games out of first (11 1/2) than these aging pinstripers (7 1/2). The Orioles' 16 wins in April equaled the franchise record for the month. The previous two times it happened, Baltimore went to the World Series (1969) and won the AL East after going wire-to-wire (1997). They might have gone to the Series that year too, had Jeffrey Maier read the rules on the back of his ticket about not interfering with balls in play.

So now, Baltimore and Washington have each played 13 games at home, including nine times when both clubs were at home. The two clubs rank 11th and 15th overall in MLB in attendance per game:

11. Baltimore: 418,444 total, 32,188 per game
15. Washington 398,741 total, 30,672 per game

That's right, it's the sad-sack Orioles, the team we were all supposed to feel sorry for, that's leading the Beltway battle by nearly 2,000 fans per game. Not only that, they've sold 66.8 percent of all tickets, while Washington's managed only 54.1, according to ESPN's attendance rankings.

Here are the last five head-to-head gates, since I wasn't paying attention last week...

SUNDAY:
Baltimore vs. Tampa Bay: 30,784
Washington vs. the Mets: 27,333

SATURDAY:
Baltimore vs. Tampa Bay: 19,920
Washington vs. the Mets: 40,913

FRIDAY:
Baltimore vs. Tampa Bay: 24,910
Washington vs. the Mets: 30,627

April 21:
Baltimore vs. Boston: 40,419
Washington vs. Atlanta: 30,728

April 20:
Baltimore vs. Boston: 36,478
Washington vs. Atlanta: 27,374

If the Orioles can keep up their run of contention in the AL East, they should win this competition easily, though unfortunately we won't have the pleasure of seeing Peter Angelos eat his words. It's too bad Angelos and, say, mayor Anthony Williams of D.C. couldn't put a friendly wager on this attendance battle, the way mayors or governors do when their teams meet in the World Series or Super Bowl. It wouldn't have been feasible because each man, in effect, would've had to root against his team's attendance with regard to the other team's in order to win (Angelos saying Washington would hurt his team's attendance, Mayor Williams saying Washington's its own city and wouldn't draw from the Orioles' fan base). But it would've been nice to see Angelos, in a pennant race in September, cursing his sellouts to save face.

But maybe he wouldn't have to worry about that, since lawyers rarely show their true reptilian skin.