Looking at 2012 minor league attendance figures

David Kronheim of numbertamer.com has put out his annual analysis of minor league baseball attendance, and it's got some illuminating tidbits among its 80 pages. You can download the full report at his site, but I scanned through it last night for some of the locally relevant figures.

(Note that when I refer to "minor league baseball," I mean teams affiliated with Major League organizations. Those not affiliated are referred to as independent teams/leagues. All analysis is Kronheim's; I'm just pulling the local figures. I threw in a few nuggets -- Roger Clemens, Rickey Henderson and Scranton's thwarted request to play in Newark last year -- but that's it from me.)

Lakewood BlueClaws

The Lakewood BlueClaws were one of two Class A teams to average more than 6,000 fans per game in 2012. The Claws' 6,031 over 68 home dates trailed only the high-Class A Dayton Dragons, who drew 8,532 for 69 dates and have sold out every game in their 13-year history. Dayton's run of 913 consecutive sellouts -- including postseason contests and an all-star game, and counting -- is the longest sellout streak in North American sports history, according to Kronheim.

Lakewood had the ninth-highest increase in all of minor league baseball from 2011 to 2012, with 28,043 more fans last season for a 2012 total of 410,113. The increase was mostly a result of nine games in 2011 lost because of weather; the 2012 season saw seven more home dates than the previous summer.

Lakewood was one of three Phillies affiliates to lead its league. Clearwater (177,297) led the Florida State League and Lehigh Valley (622,421) led the International League.

Lakewood led the South Atlantic League in both total and average per game and topped 400,000 for the 11th time in its 12 years (those nine 2011 rainouts resulting in the only blip).

The BlueClaws have led the Sally League in total attendance 10 of their 12 years, and in those other two years, they led in per-game average (more than 6,000 every year).

Lakewood's inaugural season in 2001 drew 482,206, still a South Atlantic League -- and New Jersey -- record. That was a "14-fold increase" (emphasis Kronheim's) over the 32,641 that the franchise drew in 2000, its final season in Fayetteville, N.C. Those Cape Fear Crocs drew just 32,641.

In his analysis of minor league baseball in Major League markets, Kronheim put Lakewood in the New York market, which the BlueClaws led. The independent Long Island Ducks were second with 377,473 on 68 dates, followed by the Somerset Patriots (350,295 for 66 dates).

Trenton Thunder

Kronheim places Trenton in the Philadelphia market, where it ranked third with 373,355 fans over 69 dates. Lehigh Valley led, followed by the Reading Phillies (426,623 in 67 dates). The independent Atlantic League's Camden RiverSharks drew 231,987 in its 67 dates.

Trenton set a Double-A record of drawing more than 400,000 fans in 14 consecutive seasons from 1995-2008, but Reading broke it last season with its 15th straight such season.

Trenton's all-time high of 457,344 was set in 1998. Of the 12 current Eastern League cities, only Binghamton (259,183 in 1992) and Bowie (463,976 in 1995) have older highs. Akron's record high of 522,459 came in 1999, but every other Eastern League franchise has set its high after 2000. The most recent were Harrisburg (294,325), New Britain (368,523) and Richmond (463,842 -- its Double-A high), all in 2010.

The Atlantic League

The expansion to Texas was a boon for the league. The new Sugar Land Skeeters drew 465,511 -- a modern-day independent league record. (With two dates boosted by Roger Clemens' starts.) Long Island's 443,142 in 2001 had been the previous high. Sugar Land's per-game average of 6,650 for 70 dates led all independent teams (Winnipeg set the record at 7,161 in 2003). Long Island, Somerset, Lancaster and York were among the eight teams that also topped 4,000 per game. (Long Island and Somerset were among five to top 5,000 per game.)

The Atlantic League's average per date of 4,409 set a new high (4,153 in 2009) and was up 324 over last year. The league's overall total of 2,367,578 led all independent leagues (and is a modern-day record) and was up 419,257, an increase of 21.5 percent over 2011. (Though removing Sugar Land, total attendance fell 46,254, or 2.4 percent.)

An Atlantic League team has led all independent teams in attendance since 1998: Bridgeport (1998-99), Long Island (2000-11) and Sugar Land (2012). Last year was Long Island's first year outside the top spot in its history and its 377,473 was an all-time low -- but still pretty impressive.

The Somerset Patriots' 350,295 was 21,787 fewer fans than in 2011 -- the fifth-largest dropoff among independent teams -- but that was due in large part to five fewer home dates because of weather. The Patriots still averaged 5,308 in 66 dates and have topped 5,000 per game in every year of their existence (posting a franchise-best 376,315 in 2004). Adding the five lost dates at just 5,000 per would have erased the dropoff from 2011 and neared the 2004 high. (But such figures can't be assumed. If the lost dates were in April or May, for example, the Patriots might not have drawn 5,000 on a chilly, rainy school night.) Their season total was still third among all independent teams, and they've topped 335,000 in all 14 years of operation.

The Camden RiverSharks' 231,987 in 67 dates marked another decline, down 12,241 from 2011. It's the team's lowest total in its 12-year history -- but it's still drawn at least 230,000 every year. Camden's high of 313,792 came in 2002.

The Can-Am League

The New Jersey Jackals' season total of 87,206 marked the club's first increase since 2007. Over 46 home dates, that averages out to 1,896. They drew 84,865 to Yogi Berra Stadium in 2011, meaning an increase of 2,341 last year. The Jackals' high of 129,179 came in 1999.

Newark drew 32,056 (just 668 per game) in 2012, its lowest total since the city came back on the scene in 1998. That figure was down 176,526 from 2002, marking the largest decline among independent teams that have been active in that time. (Though it should be noted that the Bears' home schedule now consists of just 48 dates; in 2002, they played 65 home games.)

In 2010, the Bears' last season in the Atlantic League, they drew 117,985 (with a longer schedule). Their modern high was 243,255 in 2001 -- an average of 3,525 per game. The city's all-time high was 342,001 in 1932, when they were an International League affiliate of the Yankees. The original Bears' final season in 1949 drew a total of 88,170, which remains the International League's all-time low.

The Can-Am League's total attendance fell 132,415 (21.1 percent) in 2012 compared to 2011, but that's a reflection of the loss of three teams. Average per date was up 237, to 2,087.

Other local notes

Lehigh Valley IronPigs: Led all U.S./Canadian teams with 622,421 and 9,153 per game ... The IronPigs were the visiting team in their home ballpark eight times in 2012, because the Scranton-Wilkes Barre Yankees played all their games in other teams' ballparks. Officially those attendance figures were credited to Scranton, but if they were added to Lehigh Valley's total, Coca Cola Park drew 688,821 fans in 2012 ... The IronPigs have led the minors in average attendance the past three seasons and in overall attendance the past two ... They've had 290 sellouts since 2008 ... In 2011, the Phillies led Major League Baseball in attendance, and coupled with Lehigh Valley leading all of minor league baseball, it marked the first time that a team led the Majors in attendance and had one of its affiliates lead the minors in the same year. (The 1931 and '32 Yankees led the American League, while their Newark affiliate led the minors.) ... Lehigh Valley is the only team to top 600,000 total fans in each of the past five seasons ... Coca Cola Park's 8,089 seats put it among the smallest in Triple-A, but the IronPigs have exceeded capacity 290 times and topped 10,000 93 times with standing room and lawn seating.

Brooklyn Cyclones: The Coney Island crew had the highest attendance among short-season squads for the 12th year in a row -- 249,009 ... The Cyclones' 6,553 per game also led all short-season clubs for the 12th straight season ... Brooklyn ranked fourth in the New York market (behind Lakewood, Long Island and Somerset -- all in full-season leagues) and outdrew full- or longer-season clubs in Bridgeport, Newark, Montclair and Rockland County, N.Y. ... Brooklyn had 38 home dates, while Bridgeport had 65, Newark had 48 and the New Jersey Jackals had 46. The Cyclones outdrew the Bluefish by 116,870, Bears by 216,953 and Jackals by 161,803. No wonder the Mets wouldn't let Scranton-Wilkes Barre play home games in Newark. ... The Cyclones have 12 of the 16 highest single-season totals in short-season history (Aberdeen, Md., and Portland, Ore., each have two). Their all-time high -- and a short-season best -- of 317,124 came in 2002, their second season. ... Last season's total was up over 2011's all-time low of 245,087 ... With their 38 home dates, the Cyclones outdrew 46 of 60 full-season Class A teams, 10 of 30 Double-A clubs, 12 of 16 Mexican League teams and the Triple-A Tucson Padres ... Brooklyn's 6,553 per game bested all but one Class A team (Dayton), one Double-A club (Frisco, Texas), two Mexican League teams (Monterrey and Saltillo) and Sugar Land. The Cyclones' average also ranked higher than 16 of the 30 Triple-A squads.

 Staten Island Yankees: Things aren't as sunny across the bay. The Yanks drew 141,163 and had the largest loss from 2011 to '12 among short-season clubs, drawing 51,405 fewer fans, or 1,949 fewer per game (the largest per-game loss of any affiliated team) -- and with four more games (38) on the 2012 schedule than they had in 2011, because of weather ... Staten Island's total loss ranked eighth among all clubs, behind four Mexican League teams, Double-A Mobile, Triple-A Pawtucket and Double-A Birmingham ... The Yankees did outdraw Bridgeport in the New York market, but trailed Hudson Valley and Rockland County ... Staten Island's all-time high (209,018) occurred only in 2010, a steep decline in just two years.

Other notes from the region: The Hudson Valley Renegades drew 12,568 more in 2012 than in '11, the best increase among short-season teams. The Renegades topped 4,000 per game for the 19th year in a row -- all in a ballpark with a capacity of 4,494. They've drawn at least 138,000 every year since they were born in '94. ... The Reading Phillies drew 6,368 per game, one of three Double-A teams to average more than 6,000 (Frisco and Richmond were the others). Playing in the same ballpark as in 1982, the R-Phils drew 344,748 more than they did 30 years ago, the biggest gain among Double-A clubs in that time. And yet, Reading saw a 30,334 decline from 2011-12, the biggest drop in the Eastern League. ... The Binghamton Mets drew 259,183 in their first season in 1992, but haven't topped 250,000 since. The B-Mets' 196,929 last year was 12,115 fewer than in '11 (209,044). ... And one historical note: In 1977-78, the Jersey City Indians (with Rickey Henderson in '78) drew just 88,993 combined those two years.

When the Mets leased New York

I've been sitting on a recent article by Tyler Kepner in The New York Times because I haven't had the time to finish all the research I'd intended for this post. The piece included an interesting statistic (and echoed some of what I wrote upon Andre Dawson's induction): Kepner points out that, from 1979-83, the Montreal Expos ranked no lower than fourth in the National League in attendance. After watching the team's demise at the beginning of this century because of a lack of fan interest, that is an eye-opening note to those of us who became baseball fans as children in the '80s, because most of what we know in baseball has been about big markets drawing the fans while the small markets suffer -- especially for those of us who grew up around the big markets like New York.

Montreal clearly suffered with its mausoleum-as-ballpark, and the strike in 1994 with the Expos leading the NL East (Kepner points out that they were on pace to win 105 games) was probably the last great hope for baseball in Montreal. If that team -- with Cliff Floyd, Moises Alou, Marquis Grissom, Larry Walker, Pedro Martinez and John Wetteland had won the division, it might've sparked passion in the team, which could've led to revenue -- perhaps a new ballpark -- and the retention of all those great young players.

But back to the attendance. In the New York area, we tend to think of the Yankees as kings of New York, with the Mets second. But there have been periods when the Mets were the more popular team. The Mets reached 3 million fans in a season in 1986, long before the Yankees first did it in 1998. And from 1984 through 1990 (the Davey Johnson years), the Mets outdrew the Yankees, 16,345,325 to 15,542,726. The Mets ranked higher in the Majors in attendance than the Yankees in each of those years, never ranked lower than fourth overall after '84 and ranked second from '85-87 and first in '88. Granted, it's a very small stretch in the nearly 50 years of Mets-Yankees co-habitation in New York City (My god! We're coming up on the Mets' 50th anniversary!), but it's worth noting that, while the Yankees have generally owned the town throughout, they at least leased it to the Mets for a time.

Team Attendance and MLB Rankings, 1979-90
	Expos	Rank	Mets	Rank	Yankees	Rank
1979	2,102,173	8	788,905	24	2,537,765	3
1980	2,208,175	7	1,192,073	19	2,627,417	3
1981	1,534,564	4	704,244	18	1,614,353	3
1982	2,318,292	4	1,323,036	18	2,041,219	7
1983	2,320,651	4	1,112,774	23	2,257,976	6
1984	1,606,531	17	1,842,695	11	1,821,815	12
1985	1,502,494	17	2,761,601	2	2,214,587	7
1986	1,128,981	24	2,767,601	2	2,268,030	7
1987	1,850,324	17	3,034,129	2	2,427,672	6
1988	1,478,659	22	3,055,445	1	2,633,701	5
1989	1,783,533	20	2,918,710	4	2,170,485	12
1990	1,373,087	23	2,732,745	4	2,006,436	14

Opening Day tickets still available

Leading up to Friday's A's and Braves home openers, each team still had tickets available. The Pirates and Nationals open on Monday and are still pushing tickets. The Nationals are so hard up for buyers that the team president has gone on the radio in nearby cities like Richmond, rival Baltimore and even Philadelphia -- their opponent on Opening Day -- encouraging fans to take the day off and come to Nationals Park.

For Pittsburgh and Washington, it's understandable that a Monday afternoon game would have trouble selling out. It's bound to be cold and those teams haven't shown much promise in recent seasons, this offseason, or the first week of this season (Pittsburgh's Opening Day rally and two-out-of-four start in St. Louis only a slight exception). But Atlanta? A team that won 14 straight division titles and has some promise for this year (though still ranks behind New York and Philadelphia in terms of "on paper" prospects for this year)? Even Oakland is surprising -- considering that it now ranks last in the Majors in capacity since the A's closed off the upper deck.

That's kind of sad. As a fan, I hope it's a result of the recession. I don't want to think that there are fans so put off by the game or their teams that they won't even get excited for the start of a new season. With the Braves, though, it's a longtime problem. Their core fans are loyal, but they're not a big ticket, even in the postseason. At least not during the height of their dominance, when October baseball was a foregone conclusion in Atlanta. Maybe that will change the next time they get back to the playoffs.

Orioles-Nationals gate comparison No. 5

The major league teams in Baltimore and Washington have now played at home on the same day 13 times this season. Well, there have been 13 dates, but a rainout in Baltimore last week (yet not in Washington, interestingly enough) meant the O's lost a game. (It will be made up Monday, Sept. 26, a day after the Nationals finish a series at home with the Mets.)

Thursday, July 7
Mets at Washington: 44,492
Red Sox at Orioles: 47,389

So having the Red Sox in town helps make up for last week's rainout with the Yankees in the visiting dugout.

Out of these 12 days on which both the Nationals and Orioles actually played a home game, Baltimore has drawn the bigger crowds seven times to Washington's five. It would have been 8-5, surely, without the rainout since the Orioles average 40,000 with the Yankees in town and Washington had only 31,000 that night. It's also worth noting that two of Washington's better crowds came on weeknights when Baltimore was hosting the Tigers and drew less than 20,000 (including the smallest crowd in Camden Yards history). Washington took both nights with less than 26,000.

For review, here are each of the dates, repeating yesterday at the end:

Saturday, April 16
Baltimore vs. Yankees: 48,598
Washington vs. Diamondbacks: 34,943

Sunday, April 17
Baltimore vs. Yankees: 47,883
Washington vs. Diamondbacks: 35,463

Monday, April 18
Baltimore vs. Detroit: 16,301 (smallest crowd in Camden Yards history)
Washington vs. Florida: 24,003

Tuesday, April 19
Baltimore vs. Detroit: 18,009
Washington vs. Florida: 25,990

Wednesday, April 20
Baltimore vs. Boston: 36,478 (the Red Sox will bring crowds)
Washington vs. Atlanta: 27,374

Thursday, April 21
Baltimore vs. Boston: 40,419
Washington vs. Atlanta: 30,728 (this for a day game)

Friday, April 29
Baltimore vs. Tampa Bay: 24,910
Washington vs. the Mets: 30,627

Saturday, April 30
Baltimore vs. Tampa Bay: 19,920
Washington vs. the Mets: 40,913

Sunday, May 1
Baltimore vs. Tampa Bay: 30,784
Washington vs. the Mets: 27,333

Tuesday, June 28
Baltimore vs. Yankees(so you know it's going to be high): 47,465
Washington vs. Pirates: 35,828

Wednesday, June 29
Baltimore vs. Yankees: Rained out (killer)
Washington vs. Pirates: 31,213

Thursday, June 30
Baltimore vs. Indians: 27,272
Washington vs. Pirates: 37,361

Thursday, July 7
Baltimore vs. Red Sox: 47,389
Washington vs. Mets: 44,492

Orioles-Nationals gate comparison No. 4

So I was asleep at the turnstiles last week, when the Orioles and Nationals had three home dates in common. It had been so long (nearly two months) that they'd both been at home that it wasn't on my radar. So let's look at their attendance figures:

Tuesday, June 28
Pirates at Washington: 35,828
Yankees at Baltimore (so you know it's going to be high): 47,465

Wednesday, June 29
Pirates at Washington: 31,213
Yankees at Baltimore: Rained out (killer)

Thursday, June 30
Pirates at Washington: 37,361
Indians at Baltimore: 27,272

There's one more common date before the break, tomorrow, so after those games I'll break down the head-to-head numbers further, and sometime during the three-day lull I'll look at their overall attendance. But entering tonight's games (with the Nationals at home against the Mets and the Orioles in New York), Washington ranked 13th in the majors with an average of 32,812 while Baltimore was 15th at 31,735. The Orioles, despite a two-month run at the top of the AL East, are drawing about 3,000 fewer fans per game than they did in 2004. However, the Northeast's long, cold spring has affected attendance at most parks, and the O's have a chance to rebound with the summer crowds.

Washington is indeed one of the best stories of the season so far, but how far will it go? Can the Nationals keep up this pace? Can they continue to win 77 percent (23-7) of their one-run games? Can they continue to play 10 games above their expected record? Are they a 51-32 team, or a 42-42 team? Can they continue to have the best bullpen record (20-10) in the National League with the fourth-best bullpen ERA (4.08)?

I'm dubious. I look at this team a little like the 2003 Kansas City Royals, though at 51-32 through 83 games, Washington is six games better than the Royals were at the same point (45-38). For now, I have to root for the Nats to slide while the Mets have a slim chance to be a part of this race. But if Washington can continue to hold off the Braves and the underachieving Marlins, I'll be buying that D.C. cap -- the one I've been meaning to get, since it's my initials anyway -- and pulling for the worst-to-first story.

Orioles and Nationals at the gate, April review

Peter Angelos is going to make out like a bandit. That's going to be my prediction, now that we're one month into the season. The slimy lawyer bitched and moaned (and probably cried) that his franchise, the Baltimore Orioles, would be so damaged by the presence of a team in Washington that he held up the move of the Montreal Expos for two years, then got a sweetheart deal out of the cable network that will show both Nationals and Orioles games. However, as my friends in Washington tell me, when the Nationals and Orioles both play at the same time, guess which one is put on the air? In a small bit of just retribution, Angelos is being sued by Comcast, which has the rights to Orioles games on cable through 2006.

After Angelos claimed that "there are no real baseball fans in D.C.," he tried to avoid having a Washington team presumably continue to take away from his own team's declining attendance figures. What he seemed to forget, though, is that after the novelty of a gorgeous ballpark wears off, the sure-fire way to get people to come to your games is to put together an exciting, winning team.

So here we are now at the end of April, a day into May. Baltimore stands atop the AL East, the toughest division in baseball in which to crack the top two (not to be confused with the toughest division in baseball). They have a four-game lead as of this morning -- on Boston and Toronto, not even the Yankees, who have just finished the second-worst April since George Steinbrenner bought the team. Only the 1984 club, which was chasing the juggernaut Tigers, was more games out of first (11 1/2) than these aging pinstripers (7 1/2). The Orioles' 16 wins in April equaled the franchise record for the month. The previous two times it happened, Baltimore went to the World Series (1969) and won the AL East after going wire-to-wire (1997). They might have gone to the Series that year too, had Jeffrey Maier read the rules on the back of his ticket about not interfering with balls in play.

So now, Baltimore and Washington have each played 13 games at home, including nine times when both clubs were at home. The two clubs rank 11th and 15th overall in MLB in attendance per game:

11. Baltimore: 418,444 total, 32,188 per game
15. Washington 398,741 total, 30,672 per game

That's right, it's the sad-sack Orioles, the team we were all supposed to feel sorry for, that's leading the Beltway battle by nearly 2,000 fans per game. Not only that, they've sold 66.8 percent of all tickets, while Washington's managed only 54.1, according to ESPN's attendance rankings.

Here are the last five head-to-head gates, since I wasn't paying attention last week...

SUNDAY:
Baltimore vs. Tampa Bay: 30,784
Washington vs. the Mets: 27,333

SATURDAY:
Baltimore vs. Tampa Bay: 19,920
Washington vs. the Mets: 40,913

FRIDAY:
Baltimore vs. Tampa Bay: 24,910
Washington vs. the Mets: 30,627

April 21:
Baltimore vs. Boston: 40,419
Washington vs. Atlanta: 30,728

April 20:
Baltimore vs. Boston: 36,478
Washington vs. Atlanta: 27,374

If the Orioles can keep up their run of contention in the AL East, they should win this competition easily, though unfortunately we won't have the pleasure of seeing Peter Angelos eat his words. It's too bad Angelos and, say, mayor Anthony Williams of D.C. couldn't put a friendly wager on this attendance battle, the way mayors or governors do when their teams meet in the World Series or Super Bowl. It wouldn't have been feasible because each man, in effect, would've had to root against his team's attendance with regard to the other team's in order to win (Angelos saying Washington would hurt his team's attendance, Mayor Williams saying Washington's its own city and wouldn't draw from the Orioles' fan base). But it would've been nice to see Angelos, in a pennant race in September, cursing his sellouts to save face.

But maybe he wouldn't have to worry about that, since lawyers rarely show their true reptilian skin.

Orioles-Nationals gate comparison No. 3

Yesterday in New Jersey, there was a promotion at the ballpark.

It was August in April day at Lakewood's FirstEnergy Park. I went to the 11 a.m. game against the Hagerstown Suns (how appropriate) in near-90-degree weather and was glad to put the sunscreen on. Even on an April Humpday, Lakewood drew 4,010 fans. (Unfortunately, the New Jersey team's four-year stranglehold on South Atlantic League attendance titles is in jeopardy with the long-needed new ballpark in Greensboro outdrawing the BlueClaws by 400 fans a game. Though once we get into summer at the Jersey Shore, that could change. Greensboro, though, doesn't have as much lawn seating, or as attractive GA locations as Lakewood.)

So maybe I'll have two sets of attendance wars to follow this summer.

Meanwhile, down around the Beltway...

Wednesday
Baltimore vs. Boston: 36,478 (the Red Sox will bring crowds)
Washington vs. Atlanta: 27,374

Thursday
Baltimore vs. Boston: 40,419
Washington vs. Atlanta: 30,728 (this for a day game)

Orioles-Nationals gate comparison No. 2

Frank Robinson should just worry about getting his team ready to play, not about what highlights ESPN is showing after the game.

Tonight they'll show a second straight loss for the Nationals, and also a second straight outdrawing of the Orioles. So Washington and Baltimore are now 2-2 for the higher attendance on nights both teams play at home.

Monday:
Baltimore vs. Detroit: 16,301 (smallest crowd in Camden Yards history)
Washington vs. Florida: 24,003

Tuesday:
Baltimore vs. Detroit: 18,009
Washington vs. Florida: 25,990

Orioles-Nationals gate comparison No. 1

So much to catch up on, but first (since it can be a short post), here's a look at the first head-to-head comparison of attendance in Baltimore and Washington when they play on the same day. Yesterday's games were played at different times, but close enough (4:30 in Baltimore, 7 p.m. in Washington).

Yesterday:
Baltimore vs. Yankees: 48,598
Washington vs. Diamondbacks: 34,943

Today:
Baltimore vs. Yankees: 47,883
Washington vs. Diamondbacks: 35,463

Let's wait to see how things match up tomorrow through Thursday (when the Yankees aren't in Maryland) before we call bullcrap on Peter Angelos.

Orioles vs. Nationals ... at the gate

Because Orioles owner Peter Angelos and his staff continue to whine (and whine some more, and then piss off some people) about losing fans to the new Washington franchise, I've decided to take him to task. Throughout this season, I'm going to monitor the attendance of the Washington Nationals and the Baltimore Orioles. Neither team is expected to anything higher than third or fourth, at best, in their respective divisions and both have aspects intriguing enough to draw the fans to the ballparks. The Nationals are new, the first team in the nation's capital in a generation. The Orioles have star power in Sammy Sosa, Rafael Palmeiro (the first pair of 500-home-run hitters to ever play in the same lineup), Miguel Tejada and Javy Lopez.

So what if Washington is 35 miles from Baltimore? A city Washington's size should have a right to a major league franchise. Granted, the histories are longer, but there have been no problems in New York, Chicago, the Bay Area or L.A. (The Dodgers haven't had a problem with the Angels until they took their city's name. They didn't even move anywhere!) While those four cities and metropolitan areas are large enough to support two franchises, there is nothing that says Angelos has the right to two cities' worth of support for one team. If anything, Baltimore-Washington should be looked at as Oakland-San Francisco.

So while there are already debates about which team to see, it remains to be seen if the Nationals severely hurt the Orioles' attendance figures this season.

So here's what we'll be looking at this season:

• Out of 81 home games for each team, 25 fall on the same day. That's 31 percent, or just about one-third of the home season.

• For the Orioles, four of those 25 overlapping dates are against the Yankees at Camden, always a big draw. They shouldn't have anything to worry about, since the ballpark will be half-full with Yankee fans anyway.

• For the Nationals, seven games involve Mets at RFK, which should be a draw. Mets fans in upstate New York (and some from downstate, too, I'm sure) often made a trip to Montreal each season, so it's no stretch to think that there will be some Mets fans heading south to D.C. for a weekend series. I'll be one of them, in fact.

• The days of the Mets games are: an April Friday-Sunday (when Tampa Bay is at Baltimore), a July Monday-Thursday (with the Red Sox at Camden on the Thursday) and a September Friday-Sunday (also with the BoSox at Baltimore). Days of the week and months of the season are important for the same reason Bud Selig always trumpets the rise in attendance for interleague games each year: they start in mid-June, right when kids are getting out of school and the weather's pretty much perfect in every city. If there is to be a decline in Orioles attendance vs. that of the Nationals, it's more likely to come in April, when D.C. has the added novelty of being new and it's just too dang cold and rainy to sit through a four-hour American League game in Baltimore.

• Back at Camden, six other games involve the defending champion Boston Red Sox, three are against the Western Division champion Angels and three more involve the A's, always an exciting, young, competitive team. So, counting the four Yankee games, that's 16 of 25 games against top competition.

• In D.C., five games feature the retooled and competitive Florida Marlins, three are against defending National League champ St. Louis and two involve 13-time NL East winners Atlanta. Including the Mets, that's 17 of 25 against the three best NL East teams and the defending league champion.

• The Orioles will play six of the games against the potentially underwhelming Tigers, Devil Rays and Indians at Camden (though the Indians could be a surprising team this year).

• The Nationals' eight remaining games involve the potentially underwhelming Diamondbacks, Pirates and Reds, though Cincinnati carries the same disclaimer as the Indians, only without as much of a chance of competing for the division because theirs is much, much tougher.

• In 2004, the Orioles filled Camden's 48,190 seats to 70.3 percent capacity in 80 home games. The team's average attendance had declined every year from 1997 (average of 45,816 per game) to 2003 (30,303) before jumping back up in 2004 (34,300). The magic number is 2.45 million for the season: In 13 years at Camden Yards, the Orioles have never been below that number.

• RFK holds some 45,000 for baseball (to Angelos' dismay).

Now here are the matchups for those common home dates for the Nationals and Orioles. Washington's opponent is listed first, followed by Baltimore's foe. The number in parentheses after each visiting team is that franchise's MLB rank in 2004 in average road attendance. The number at the end of each pairing is the Orioles' 2004 average against that opponent.

Sat. April 16 — Diamondbacks (11)/Yankees (1); 45,580
Sun. April 17 — Diamondbacks (11)/Yankees (1); 45,580
Mon. April 18 — Marlins (20)/Tigers (25); 32,207
Tue. April 19 — Marlins (20)/Tigers (25); 32,207
Wed. April 20 — Braves (16)/Red Sox (5); 40,748
Thu. April 21 — Braves (16)/Red Sox (5); 40,748
Fri. April 29 — Mets (14)/Devil Rays (23); 27,617
Sat. April 30 — Mets (14)/Devil Rays (23); 27,617
Sun. May 1 — Mets (14)/Devil Rays (23); 27,617
Tue. June 28 — Pirates (15)/Yankees (1); 45,580
Wed. June 29 — Pirates (15)/Yankees (1); 45,580
Thu. June 30 — Pirates (15)/Indians (26); 33,596
Thu. July 7 — Mets (14)/Red Sox (5); 40,748
Tue. Aug. 23 — Reds (10)/Angels (18); 34,652
Wed. Aug. 24 — Reds (10)/Angels (18); 34,652
Thu. Aug. 25 — Reds (10)/Angels (18); 34,652
Fri. Aug. 26 — Cardinals (13)/A's (8); 37,937
Sat. Aug. 27 — Cardinals (13)/A's (8); 37,937
Sun. Aug. 28 — Cardinals (13)/A's (8); 37,937
Mon. Sep. 5 — Marlins (20)/Blue Jays (27); 27,374
Tue. Sep. 6 — Marlins (20)/Blue Jays (27); 27,374
Wed. Sep. 7 — Marlins (20)/Blue Jays (27); 27,374
Fri. Sep. 23 — Mets (14)/Red Sox (5); 40,748
Sat. Sep. 24 — Mets (14)/Red Sox (5); 40,748
Sun. Sep. 25 — Mets (14)/Red Sox (5); 40,748

Two NL teams played in Baltimore last season. The Diamondbacks drew 26,603 fans per game for a Tuesday-Thursday (June 8-10) series in June. Atlanta was in for a Friday-Sunday series later that month (25-27), drawing 40,037.

Additionally, Washington gets home games against Orioles opponents Oakland (Tuesday, June 7-Thursday, June 9), Seattle (Friday, June 10-Sunday, June 12) and Toronto (Friday, June 24-Sunday, June 26).

We'll also be able to compare how each team did when it came to Baltimore in 2004, with the months and days of the week of those visits again important:

• The Red Sox (40,748 average at Baltimore in '04) were at Camden for an April Sunday (which was Opening Day) and the following Tuesday-Thursday, a July Monday and Wednesday (rainout) and an October Friday-Sunday, with a seperate-admission doubleheader on Saturday

• The Yankees (45,580) visited for a May Tuesday-Thursday, a June Tuesday-Thursday and a September Friday-Sunday.

• The Tigers were in town for a Friday-Sunday series in September.

• Tampa Bay showed up in April (Tuesday-Thursday), June (Friday and Sunday) and July (two separate games on Monday, one each Tuesday and Wednesday).

• The Indians came in May for a Friday-Sunday series.

• The Angels were also in Baltimore for a May Friday-Sunday series.

• Oakland showed up in August for a Monday-Wednesday matchup.

• The Blue Jays faced off at Camden in April (Friday-Sunday), August (Friday-Sunday) and September (Monday-Thursday, with a traditional doubleheader on Wednesday).

So there's the setup. I plan to monitor the teams' overall attendance figures, posting them either weekly, bi-weekly or monthly, depending on how diligent I am with scrutinizing the box scores and whatnot. But for those 25 home dates the two teams have in common, I intend to post the comparison by the next afternoon.

And then, come October, we'll see whether Angelos was truly worried, or whole-heartedly trying to get every possible dollar from MLB that he could.