The definitive SI baseball preview cover analysis

{NOTE: Originally posted on April 1, 2010, this analysis is now updated yearly to show the latest accurate numbers. I haven't come across a study like this, but it doesn't mean it's not out there. Though it would be a bit of a downer if I found out I did all this research for nothing. With only a few exceptions, all links lead to images of the covers.}

After I posted the 2010 Sports Illustrated baseball preview cover on Facebook (in addition to here), my friend Brad left this comment:

One of my first SI issues was the 1987 baseball preview issue, with Cory Snyder and the Indians on the cover. The Indians, of course, went 61-101 that year.

And that got my mind racing. How accurate has the magazine been in its choices for the annual baseball preview? We all know about the cover jinx, but does the jinx hold up through an entire season as well as it seems to on a more short-term basis, from week to week? It didn't take me too long to whip up a spreadsheet, scroll through SI's covers gallery to find each preview and plug in the numbers, with the help of Baseball-Reference.

So I may get a little obsessive at times, assigning myself mundane tasks that, in the end, result in little more than some neat -- and possibly very arbitrary -- numbers to peruse. But I don't care. Here are the results, showing how many teams, players and positions were featured, plus the teams' and players' results that season, from stats to All-Star nods to awards, plus a little more.

The totals and general figures
Through 2014, SI released 60 baseball season preview issues (not covers, as I'll explain shortly), featuring 25 of the 30 franchises that exist today. If you count the Montreal Expos and two instances of the Washington Senators separately, there are 33 different teams in that time. Twenty-five have been featured on the cover; neither Senators club made it, but the Twins and Rangers have. Both the Expos and Washington Nationals have had players on a cover.

In 2013, the magazine also introduced full regional covers for its baseball preview for the first time. From 2009-11, the main image on all covers was the same nationally, but there were regional insets, which I chose not to count in the player totals. Those players will be noted in the yearly breakdown below, however. As for the regional covers beginning with 2013, I've decided to count those collectively as one issue for the 60 noted at the start of the previous paragraph (to indicate the number of years the magazine has produced a baseball preview issue) but have credited each player with a solo appearance (hence Sabathia's two solo covers).

In 2014, the Yankees broke their tie with the Red Sox to retake the lead with eight covers -- though one of Boston's was the 1990 cover featuring a long-retired Ted Williams and the headline, "Was it a better game in Ted's day?" That was one of two covers to feature an inactive player, along with the 1984 one with Yankees manager Yogi Berra, and one of eight that didn't have an active player at all. There were six years from 1956-65 that showed no players: 1956, 1957, 1958, 1960, 1963 and 1965.

Here is the team-by-team tally:
Yankees 8
Red Sox 7
Dodgers 6
Cardinals 6
Phillies 5
Orioles 3
Giants 3
Reds 3
Tigers 3
Royals 3
Angels 3
Mariners 3
Indians 2
Twins 2
Mets 2
Pirates 2
Nationals 2
Brewers 1
D-backs 1
Rockies 1
Cubs 1
Rangers 1
Padres 1
A's 1
Expos 1
Rays 1

There have been 74 different active players to grace the cover before a season, including 16 Hall of Famers (though Williams and Berra are among those), 41 players who would have All-Star seasons the year they appeared on the cover, two who would take MVP honors (both in the NL), four Cy Young winners (with each league represented), two who would break significant records, three who would win 20 games and 11 who went on to lead their respective leagues in one of the triple crown categories: batting average, home runs, RBIs, wins, ERA and strikeouts. Those 11 players led the way in 13 categories overall, particularly boosted by the Cy Young-winning pitchers. Hitters have averaged .295 (158-for-535) with 23 home runs and 85 RBIs. Pitchers have averaged a 14-8 record, 176 strikeouts and a 3.19 ERA (68 earned runs in 193 innings).

Starting pitchers have appeared the most, 32 times each (no relievers have appeared), followed by 20 outfielders, 11 first basemen, six third basemen, five shortstops, five catchers, two managers, two second baseman and one owner. Eleven of the covers have featured multiple people, but only four times has it been multiple representatives for one team. Mays, Derek Jeter, Mark McGwire, Steve Garvey, Roy Halladay, Albert Pujols and CC Sabathia are the only players to appear more than once (twice each), with Garvey, Pujols and Sabathia the only ones to be featured solo on a cover. Fifteen players were featured the year they joined a new team and 13 covers showed the defending World Series champions.

Now for some jinx-related numbers. Twenty-six of the 68 teams have reached the postseason the year they were on the cover, with six winning the World Series, five losing it, three losing the ALCS, two losing the NLCS, seven losing the ALDS and three losing the NLDS. Both Division Series stats include the 1981 strike-interrupted season, when the Phillies (first half) and Royals (second half) won half the season but lost in their respective division series. Twenty-three teams finished in first place in their divisions (or leagues, before 1969), 15 finished second, 18 third, six fourth, one fifth, three sixth and two seventh. Seven teams won 100 games, two lost 100. Over the years, the teams have averaged a third-place finish and an 86-72 record.

That's it for the broad strokes. Here are the year-by-year covers, broken down by decade. For simplicity, I stuck with the triple-crown stats (AVG/HR/RBI for hitters, W-L/ERA/SO for pitchers), even if that's not how we're supposed to evaluate players these days.

1950s
SI launched in August 1954 -- with baseball on its cover in the form of Braves third baseman Eddie Mathews -- so its first baseball preview issue did not appear until April 1955. The first team to appear on a season preview was the New York Giants, who had won the World Series in '54. The cover subjects were center fielder Willie Mays and manager Leo Durocher, flanking Durocher's wife, Laraine. The cover was controversial because Laraine Durocher, a white woman, is touching Mays, a black man. It has three pages dedicated to it in James S. Hirsch's recent Mays biography. The Say Hey Kid blocked out any distractions, though, and went on to an All-Star season that year and led the Majors with 51 home runs.

Following a series of generic covers, Mays appeared again in 1959, another All-Star season.

1960s
Orioles outfielder Jackie Brandt appeared in 1961, an average .297/16/72 All-Star season, followed by Tigers pitcher Frank Lary, who had a horrible 1962: 2-6/5.74/41. Sandy Koufax got things back on the superstar track in 1964, when he was an All-Star (19-5/1.74/223) and led the NL in ERA.

In 1966, Dick Groat became the first player shown with a new team (and perhaps that's why he was chosen). It backfired when he put up .260/2/53 that season. The editors went the same route, presumably, in 1967, when new Pirates third baseman Maury Wills got the cover and fared ever-so-slightly better (.302/3/45).

Lou Brock was up in 1968, when he led the Majors in doubles, triples and stolen bases and the Cardinals became the first featured team to reach the postseason, losing to the Tigers in the World Series. Brock's appearance also marked the first of four straight years in which the defending World Series champ was on the cover. In 1969, it was Tigers catcher Bill Freehan, who was an All-Star in a .262/16/49 season.

1970s
The defending champions trend continued with Mets left-hander Jerry Koosman (12-7/3.14/118) in 1970, surrounded by caps of the other clubs, and with Orioles slugger Boog Powell (.256/22/92, All-Star) in 1971, the first year that SI's pick went on to win 100 games and the World Series. Cardinals third baseman Joe Torre (.289/11/81) and his sideburns was the choice in 1972, snapping the streak of defending champs.

Though I didn't tally how many of the cover subjects were coming off an award-winning season, I did note that 1973 cover boy Steve Carlton of the Phillies was the defending NL Cy Young winner, following his 27-10/1.97/310 NL Triple Crown campaign. His follow-up was pretty much the opposite: 13-20/3.90/223 for the last-place Phils. Reds outfielder Pete Rose graced the cover in 1974, a nondescript year for him (.284/3/51), and Garvey made his first appearance in 1975, when he went .319/18/95.

The year of my birth, 1976, may have been the bull's eye of SI baseball preview covers. The subject was Reds second baseman Joe Morgan, a future Hall of Famer for the defending World Series champs. He went on to have an MVP and All-Star season, batting .320/27/111 as the Reds went 102-60 and won the Series again. Morgan was so good that year, I'll go a little sabermetric for you: he let the Majors with a .444 OBP, .576 SLG and 1.020 OPS.

As good as '76 was for SI's choice, 1977 was as bad. New Angels outfielder Joe Rudi -- "The Angels' $2-million man" -- went on to a .264/13/53 season for the fifth-place club. The first cover shared by players from different teams appeared in 1978, when Twins first baseman Rod Carew (.333/5/70) and Reds outfielder George Foster (.302/30/98) mugged for Walter Iooss Jr.'s camera. Iooss and the magazine repeated the theme in 1979 with Red Sox outfielder Jim Rice (.325/39/130) and outfielder Dave Parker (.310/25/94) of the Pirates, who won the Series that year. All four were All-Stars as well.

1980s
In 1980, SI asked, "Who is Keith Hernandez and What Is He Doing Hitting .344?" He underachieved at the plate that year -- just .321/16/99 in an All-Star season -- but his mustache, as always, had a Hall of Fame-worthy season. Perhaps foreshadowing the year to come, in 1981 SI split the cover and hit on two teams that would win their divisions during that split season: Mike Schmidt and the Phillies (the defending champs) and George Brett and the Royals. Despite All-Star seasons by both (Schmidt hit .316/31/91, led the Majors in homers and won the NL MVP; Brett hit .314/6/43), the Phillies and Royals each lost in their respective newly-created-for-one year-until-1995 Division Series. The Dodgers won the World Series in '81, prompting Garvey's second cover appearance in 1982, though his numbers (.282/16/86) weren't as good as after his first cover.

In 1983, SI managed to get Gary Carter in between team success -- his Expos reached the playoffs in that split '81 season, and he later starred for the mid-80s Mets, but in '83 he was just the game's best catcher with an All-Star line of .270/17/79. Only the second manager to appear on an SI baseball preview came in 1984, when new Yankees skipper Yogi Berra was shown. The Yanks finished third with an 87-75 record. New York was the subject again in 1985, but this time it was the Mets' Dwight Gooden, coming off his NL Rookie of the Year campaign. He topped that with his Cy Young, MLB Triple Crown season (24-4/1.53/268) for the second-place Mets (98-64). The magazine went up I-95 in 1986, choosing third baseman Wade Boggs (.357/8/71, All-Star) of the Red Sox, who lost the World Series that year to the Mets.

Now we have the cover that started this whole project, the 1987 issue featuring the Indians' Cory Snyder and Joe Carter. It is, perhaps, the single worst baseball preview cover choice in SI's history, though not through the fault of the players. Snyder his .236/33/82 and Carter .264/32/106, but Cleveland went 61-101 -- the first of just two 100-loss teams to appear on a baseball preview cover -- and finished last in the AL East.

The publication bounced back in 1988 with Bay Area first basemen Will Clark (.282/29/109, All-Star, NL RBI leader) and Mark McGwire (.260/32/99, All-Star), whose A's lost the World Series to the Dodgers. (I convinced my parents to subscribe a year later than Brad apparently did with his folks, because this is the first baseball preview issue I recall getting.) The decade closed with Padres catcher Benito Santiago looking up at the camera in 1989; we looked down on him, then looked down on his .236/16/62 season.

1990s
Following the Williams cover in '90, SI tabbed a future Hall of Famer in 1991 in Rangers fireballer Nolan Ryan (12-6/2.91/203). Another future enshrinee appeared in 1992 in the form of Kirby Puckett (.329/19/110), who led the Majors with 210 hits that year and was an All-Star. David Cone got the cover in 1993, the year he returned to Kansas City, but he went just 11-14/3.33/191.

Another split cover preceded baseball's worst season, 1994, when no one won a World Series that didn't happen. After appearing on the first fold-out baseball preview cover, Ken Griffey Jr. hit .323/40/90 for the Mariners, who were in third place (49-63) when the season was stopped, and Mike Piazza went .319/24/92 for the first-place Dodgers (58-56). When baseball returned in 1995, future Hall of Famer Cal Ripken was the face of the season, during which he was an All-Star and went on to hit .262/17/88 while breaking Lou Gehrig's consecutive-games-played streak.

Burned by the Indians in '87, SI waited until the Tribe was coming off a World Series appearance to feature them again in 1996, with Manny Ramirez (.309/33/112) on the cover. Cleveland fared better this time, winning the AL Central before losing in the ALDS. The Big Unit's big face hit mailboxes in 1997, when Randy Johnson went 20-4/2.28/291 and was an All-Star for the NL West-winning (and ALDS-losing) Mariners. He finished second to Roger Clemens in AL Cy Young voting.

McGwire made his second preview cover in 1998, the year he broke Roger Maris' single-season home run record. McGwire's .299/70/147 All-Star year* got him second in NL MVP voting to Sammy Sosa. SI closed the decade, the century, the millenium with new Dodgers pitcher Kevin Brown, who had signed baseball's richest contract in the offseason and at least had a solid 1999: 18-9/3.00/221.

2000s
SI opened the decade in 2000 with a bang, choosing Red Sox righty Pedro Martinez the year he went 18-6/1.74/284 and won the AL Cy Young while leading the Junior Circut in strikeouts and pacing the Majors in ERA. Derek Jeter (.311/21/74, All-Star) followed in 2001, following his World Series MVP autumn, and the Yankees reached the Fall Classic again before losing to the Diamondbacks on the last night of the Yankee dynasty. New Yankee Jason Giambi was the pick in 2002, one of his great years (.314/41/122). A third straight Yankee cover tested the tolerance of the rest of the country in 2003, and it was truly overkill. Not only did it feature five starting pitchers (Roger Clemens, Jeff Weaver, Jose Contreras, Andy Pettitte and Mike Mussina) and the headline, "You can't have too much pitching," centered among all those pinstripes was George Steinbrenner, the only owner on a preview cover.

No Yankees in 2004, but an injury-prone Kerry Wood, who went 8-9/3.72/144 for the Cubs, who didn't win the World Series (again). But Jeter (.309/19/70) returned in 2005, when he and Johnny Damon (.316/10/75) exchanged suspicious glances and then both teams bowed out in the ALDS. SI got the World Series champions right in 2006 with Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols (.331/49/137) and new Red Sox hurler Daisuke Matsuzaka (15-12/4.40/201) in 2007.

In 2008, a showcase of young talent brought six players representing five teams to the fold-out cover: Ryan Braun of the Brewers, Justin Upton of the D-backs and Troy Tulowitzki of the Rockies made the front cover; Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz of the Red Sox and Ryan Zimmerman of the Nationals appeared on the fold-out flap. Braun (.285/37/106 and the only All-Star of the bunch) and the Brewers lost in the NLDS and Boston, with Ellsbury (.280/9/47, AL-leading 50 stolen bases) and Buchholz (2-9/6.75/72), lost in the ALDS. Upton (.250/15/42) and Arizona (second, 82-80), Tulo (.263/8/46) and Colorado (third, 74-88) and Zimmerman (.285/14/51) and Washington (sixth, 59-102) sat out the postseason.

In 2009, the Yankees' new import, CC Sabathia (19-8/3.37/197, MLB lead in wins) was the centerpiece and proved to be a big piece of the Bombers' 27th world championship. For the record, though not part of these stats as I said, the inset photos customized for six regions showed David Wright (lost season), Manny Ramirez (NLCS loss), Carlos Zambrano (face-plant), Carl Crawford (solid campaign), Dustin Pedroia (ALDS loss) and Justin Morneau (ALDS loss).

2010s

When Halladay joined the Phillies, he got the cover in 2010, with insets featuring Sabathia (21 wins, third in AL Cy Young voting), John Lackey (14-11, 4.40 in 215 IP), Brian McCann (.269/21/77, All-Star), Pujols (.312/42/118, second in NL MVP voting), Tulowitzki (.315/27/95, fifth in NL MVP voting) and Matt Kemp (.249/28/89). The next year, Halladay made history by being part of the main image (not the inset) in consecutive seasons when the entire Philly rotation got the cover in 2011. Halladay did well those years, winning the NL Cy Young in '10 with a league-leading 21 wins (against 10 losses), 2.44 ERA and 219 strikeouts. His 2011 was very similar (19-6/2.35/220) for an average line those two years of 20-8/2.40/219.5. Philadelphia won the NL East both years, going 97-65 in '10 (when they lost the NLCS to the Giants) and 102-60 in '11 (when they lost in the NLDS to the Cardinals).

In 2012, it was back to the single, true national cover, with Pujols making his second solo appearance after signing his huge free-agent contract with the Angels in the offseason. He started slowly but finished strong to post a respectable .285/30/105, even if the average and home runs were the worst of his career. He still somehow managed to finish 17th in AL MVP voting for a club that went 89-73 and finished in third place in the AL West.

Following a practice it has used often for college preview issues, whether leading into a season or postseason, SI printed six regional covers in 2013, unveiling them on Twitter at the rate of one an hour in the morning and early afternoon the day before they hit newstands. Stephen Strasburg -- and the magazine's pick to win the World Series, the Nationals -- led it off just after 9 a.m. ET, followed by David Price (the first Rays appearance in their history), Justin Verlander (amazingly, the first Tiger since Freehan in '69), Sabathia (his second solo appearance, joining Garvey and Pujols), James Shields (the first Royal since Cone in 1993) and Clayton Kershaw (the Dodgers' first appearance since Brown in '99). Using six starting pitchers also widened the gap between hurlers (31 to date) and the next-closest position, outfielders (19).

The 2014 preview went back to the one national cover, with a caveat -- three certain regions got their own unique images. Masahiro Tanaka drew the honors for the national cover, but those in the Northwest received Robinson Cano, the Southwest (I would guess) got Mike Trout and the Midwest got Yadier Molina. Tanaka and Cano, of course, fit the player on a new team criteria, with Tanaka (a Yankee) also on a team with postseason aspirations (sorry, Mariners). Molina's team, the defending National League champions, also is expected to play into October, and Trout is the best player in the game.

The Nationals, for the second straight year, are SI's pick to win the World Series. In '13, they missed out on the playoffs by four games, with a still-respectable 86-76 record.

My two Nationals fan friends asked in 2013 if the six regional covers meant just a 1/6th chance of a cover jinx for their club, and I suppose this spreading of the wealth could dilute such a hex, though the Nats remained the only club picked to win the World Series, so it wouldn't be an even six-way split, if you ask me. Not that it matters. I'm not sure there's a jinx so much as a heightened awareness of the teams and players featured -- who generally are the top teams and stars, at least in the past few decades -- so that anything short of a World Series title or award-winning season is seen as proof of a hex. I mean, are Mariners fans really going to blame the SI cover jinx if their team doesn't win the World Series in 2014?

But hey, I've run the numbers -- use them as you see fit.

The six covers of SI's 2013 baseball preview issue

It's that time of year. Sports Illustrated released its baseball preview cover yesterday.

Actually, that should be covers. For the first time in the 59 years of SI baseball preview issues, the magazine has printed true regional covers, six in all, with a main image customized for four different regions of the country: Northeast, Mid-Atlanic, South, Midwest (both Rust Belt and Plains) and West. My comprehensive look at the history of the baseball preview covers has been updated to include this year, but in this post I'm going to take a closer look at each of the six produced for the 2013 season, in the order of success I think they'll have.

But first, what these covers do for the totals. By featuring six starting pitchers, SI widened the gap between starters (31) and the next-most-frequent position, outfielders (19). Five of the six players made their baseball preview cover debuts, pushing the total number of players shown over the years to 70. We've also got a team represented for the first time, bringing us up to 25 of the current 30 clubs, leaving out only the Blue Jays, White Sox (a bit surprising), Astros, Marlins and Braves (also quite surprising).

So here are the six 2013 preview covers listed, in my mind, from least deserving to most, with "deserving" defined as ideally being the favorite (or at least a top-two favorite) to win its division.

James Shields, Royals

Shields is the only one of the six this year to fulfill one of two themes that have come up frequently: a player on a new team or a player on the defending champions. The right-hander, of course, was traded to Kansas City (most of the "new team" players were free agents, with the Phillies' Roy Halladay in 2010 another trade exception). Shields is the first Royal on the cover since David Cone in 1993 -- when he was new to Kansas City after signing a free-agent deal.
The Royals are certainly an interesting story this year. They added Shields, Wade Davis (in the same deal) and Ervin Santana to the rotation and they have a deep, young core with Salvador Perez, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Alex Gordon and Billy Butler (and you can add Alcides Escobar and Lorenzo Cain to the list if you'd like). And though expected to be dominated by the Tigers, the AL Central is otherwise a pretty balanced division, or at least one in which the Royals could make some noise. But I just don't see them as one of the top two contenders -- that'd be Detroit and Chicago -- like four of the other five covers feature.

CC Sabathia, Yankees

This is the issue that arrived in my mailbox today. Despite the cover (which I knew I'd receive), it was a pleasant surprise, because what used to be a regular Wednesday (Thursday at the latest) appearance in my mail has, over maybe the past year, become more of a Thursday-if-I'm-lucky/usually Friday/occasionally Saturday treat in the mail. So to have it the first day I could conceivably expect it was nice.

As for the cover subject, let's put this out there now: The Yankees are there because SI didn't want to omit the huge New York market. Robinson Cano would've been the better choice, but it certainly looks like these six cover subjects were chosen because they're all pitchers (clearly, I haven't flipped through the issue -- or read the headlines -- yet). But if you ask me, the Yankees don't fit the criteria of a top-two contender in the division, either. With their age and all the injuries (not mutually exclusive), I think they'll have an uphill battle to catch Toronto and Tampa Bay. The Yankees have holes at catcher, third/first base (wherever Kevin Youkilis doesn't play, and at least until -- though maybe after -- Mark Teixeira returns) and wherever Vernon Wells plays (but to be fair, SI had its preview in the bag before that deal went down).

But this choice makes Sabathia one of the rare two-time featured athletes. Only seven players have appeared on multiple covers (two each), with only three of those getting the featured spot to themselves. Willie Mays appeared in 1955 and '59, Steve Garvey in '75 and '82 (both solo), Mark McGwire in '88 and '98, Derek Jeter in 2001 and '05, Albert Pujols in '06 and '12 (both solo), Halladay in 2010 and '11 and Sabathia in 2009 and '13 (both solo, because I'm not counting the 2009 regional inset).

Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers

Kershaw is the first Dodger to grace the preview cover since Kevin Brown in 1999 -- the year he (wait for it) began a seven-year deal with Los Angeles. He was baseball's first $100 million man, signing for $105 million. The Dodgers are certainly one of the big storylines of the upcoming season, and it wouldn't have surprised me to see them featured nationally, had SI gone that route. But they still have to take on the defending World Series champions -- who didn't get a regional cover, despite a worthy hurler in Matt Cain, who I probably would've gone with over Shields. L.A. is a strong contender, easily a top-two pick in the NL West, but among these cover candidates, I think it has the fourth-best chance of winning the division.

David Price, Rays

With this image, Tampa Bay became the 25th active club to have a player featured on a preview cover. Not even the 2008 collection of '05 draft picks included a (Devil) Ray. (That's because Tampa Bay selected Wade Townsend eighth overall, passing on Red Sox coverboys Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz, not to mention Andrew McCutchen, Jay Bruce and Matt Garza, to name a few.)

Price is an apt choice as the defending AL Cy Young Award winner, the head of a strong, young pitching staff and a stud who's about to come into a big payday of his own. Plus, the Rays have a great chance to contend in (and win) an AL East that sees the Red Sox still trying to get their footing, the Orioles having made no major changes to the luckiest team in Major League history (an unprecedented -- and likely unrepeatable -- 29-9 in one-run games, not to mention 16-2 in extra innings) and the Yankees aging before our eyes. Sure, the Blue Jays are loaded after a busy offseason, but just ask the Marlins -- several of whom are now in Toronto -- how that worked out last year.

I should say, too, that the Blue Jays -- particularly R.A. Dickey -- would've been a great choice for a cover, too, but I wonder if he was omitted because SI is an American magazine and choosing a regional cover for Toronto might not fit into their marketing plans. The Jays have never been featured on a preview issue before (though the Expos have), but it certainly wasn't going to happen as a regional option.

Justin Verlander, Tigers

In reality, I'm considering this one a tie with the next one. In fact, I think Detroit has a better chance of winning its division, but I'm listing it here for a reason I'll get to in a moment. But as I said in discussing the Shields cover, it's going to take a mighty effort by the White Sox, Royals or Indians to overtake the Tigers in the AL Central, and with that lineup and this guy heading the rotation, it's unlikely.

Surprisingly for a franchise that's had Sparky Anderson, Kirk Gibson, Alan Trammell, Cecil Fielder and currently the best pitcher in the game, Verlander marks the Tigers' first appearance on a preview cover since Bill Freehan represented the defending champs on the 1969 cover.

Stephen Strasburg, Nationals

While I do think Detroit has a better chance of winning its division than Washington, I list this as the most deserving cover because the Nationals are SI's pick to win the World Series. In my mind, they'll have a tougher time fending off the Braves than the Tigers will holding back any of their division opponents, but if the magazine is picking the team to go all the way, then give it the cover, I say.

Strasburg represents D.C.'s second preview cover appearance, after Ryan Zimmerman on the 2008 fold-out issue. The previous Washington franchises -- both iterations of the Senators -- never got the honor. As I noted in the cover analysis post, my friends in Virginia aren't happy about the cover jinx touching their team, but one rationalized that it's only 1/6th of a jinx, on account of the regional covers.

We'll see about that. But one thing's sure: After what was seen as a surprising run to the NL East title last year, the Nationals won't be sneaking up on anyone this year. They're the favorites, and everyone will be gunning for them.

More cover history: The 2012 SI baseball preview

I was caught off-guard this year. The Opening Series in Japan next week has thrown off my internal Opening Day clock. And so, when my Sports Illustrated was late to my mailbox this week, all I thought I was missing was an NCAA Sweet 16 cover.

But no! When I reached in on Friday, half a face of Albert Pujols was glaring back at me.

As with last year's cover, it's not much of a surprise. The biggest move of the offseason gets the featured spot on the annual baseball preview. This year, there's no inset photo, so it's only the Angels that get the tally in my running review of SI baseball preview covers.

Pujols' appearance -- his second, the other was in 2006 -- represents only the second Angels cover in the history of the SI baseball preview. The other was Joe Rudi in 1977, which does not bode well. Rudi had signed with the Angels that offseason, and the cover bore the headline: "Joe Rudi: The Angels' $2-million man." He went on to hit .264 with 13 home runs and 53 RBIs for a fifth-place club. Somehow, I think things will turn out a little bit better for Pujols and the Angels.

Pujols does make history with this appearance, though. He appeared solo in 2006 and now again this year. Steve Garvey (1975 and '82) is the only other player to have two covers to himself.

For the FULL breakdown of the SI baseball preview cover (and it is comprehensive), look here. Both there and below, you'll find the updated stats.

Team appearances:
Red Sox, 7
Yankees, 6
Phillies, 5
Cardinals, 5
Dodgers, 5
Orioles, 3
Giants, 3
Reds, 3
Angels, 2
Mariners, 2
Indians, 2
Royals, 2
Twins, 2
Mets, 2
Pirates, 2
Tigers, 2
Brewers, 1
D-backs, 1
Rockies, 1
Cubs, 1
Rangers, 1
Padres, 1
A's, 1
Expos, 1
Nationals, 1

That's a total of 62 teams now on the covers (accounting for two or more players sharing the spotlight in some years). Through the 2011 season, 23 of those 61 teams (not including this year's Angels, of course) made the playoffs, with the results as follows:

Won World Series, 6
Lost World Series, 5
Lost ALCS, 2
Lost NLCS, 1
Lost ALDS, 6
Lost NLDS, 3

The Phillies were the featured team on the cover the last two seasons, falling in the NLCS in 2010 and the NLDS in '11. But when it comes to regular-season standings, the editors have hit on top-two teams more than the other positions combined:

1st, 21
2nd, 13
3rd, 15
4th, 6
5th, 2
6th, 2
7th, 2

Here are a few more team-related numbers, all updated to include the 2011 Phillies and 2012 Angels and Pujols, where possible:

Won 100, 7
Lost 100, 2
Player with a new team, 13
Defending champs, 13

As for individual accolades, Roy Halladay's 2010 cover appearance made him the third player whose cover appearance foretold a Cy Young season, but that didn't carry over into 2011. But the Phillies rotation last year did add three All-Star nods to the annals.

Hall of Famers, 16
Retired, 2
MVP, 2
Cy Young, 3
All-Star, 39
Broke record, 2
20-game winner, 3
Led league (wins, strikeouts or ERA), 10

First base remains a strong third in most frequent apperances on the preview cover, with Pujols inching the position closer to outfield's strong hold on second place. (Each player counts once, not as a group, meaning last year's Phillies rotation counted for five starting pitchers):

C, 4
1B, 11
2B, 1
3B, 6
SS, 5
OF, 19
SP, 25
Manager, 2
Owner, 1

Sports Illustrated baseball preview history: The 2011 update

It's really not a surprise, is it? The Phillies go out and land Cliff Lee, giving them -- on paper -- the best starting rotation since the 1993 Braves, and it lands the starting five on the cover of Sports Illustrated's baseball preview issue.

The only reason I balked and wondered if they'd go with Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford in Boston is because this Phillies cover is unprecedented. (Plus, a Boston cover wouldn't have been a stretch; the magazine does pick the Red Sox to beat the Giants in the World Series.) A team has been represented as the main cover image in consecutive years -- the Yankees in 2002-03, with the entire starting rotation on that '03 cover -- but never before has one player appeared in the cover's main image in back-to-back springs. Until now, until Roy Halladay. He had the cover to himself last year, and this week he's off to the side as the other four stand behind Lee, but the placement doesn't matter. In becoming just the fifth player to appear on the cover's centerpiece twice (joining Willie Mays, Steve Garvey, Mark McGwire and Derek Jeter), Halladay is the first to do it two years in a row.

I won't rehash the full breakdown from last year, but I will update the relevant statistics.

Team appearances:
Red Sox, 7
Yankees, 6
Phillies, 5
Cardinals, 5
Dodgers, 5
Orioles, 3
Giants, 3
Reds, 3
Mariners, 2
Indians, 2
Royals, 2
Twins, 2
Mets, 2
Pirates, 2
Tigers, 2
Brewers, 1
D-backs, 1
Rockies, 1
Cubs, 1
Rangers, 1
Padres, 1
A's, 1
Expos, 1
Angels, 1
Nationals, 1

That's a total of 61 teams on the covers (accounting for two or more players sharing the spotlight in some years). Through last season, 22 of those 60 teams (before this year's Phillies) made the playoffs, with the results as follows:

Won World Series, 6
Lost World Series, 5
Lost ALCS, 2
Lost NLCS, 1
Lost ALDS, 6
Lost NLDS, 2

The Phillies last year became the first featured club to fall in the NLCS. When it comes to regular-season standings, the editors have hit on top-two teams more than the other positions combined:

1st, 20
2nd, 13
3rd, 15
4th, 6
5th, 2
6th, 2
7th, 2

Here are a few more team-related numbers:

Won 100, 6
Lost 100, 2
Player with a new team, 12
Defending champs, 13

As for individual accolades, Halladay became the third player whose cover appearance foretold a Cy Young season, the third to win 20 games, the 36th to have an All-Star season and the 10th to lead the league in at least one major category:

Hall of Famers, 16
Retired, 2
MVP, 2
Cy Young, 3
All-Star, 36
Broke record, 2
20-game winner, 3
Led league, 11

And finally, by putting the Philly five on the cover, SI has widened the gap between starting pitchers and any other position (each player counts once, not as a group, meaning the starters went from 20 to 25):

C, 4
1B, 10
2B, 1
3B, 6
SS, 5
OF, 19
SP, 25
Manager, 2
Owner, 1

Moving forward, we have regional inset images to consider. They began in 2009 with Carl Crawford, Justin Morneau, Dustin Pedroia, Manny Ramirez, David Wright and Carlos Zambrano. Last year, they included Matt Kemp, John Lackey, Brian McCann, Albert Pujols, CC Sabathia and Troy Tulowitzki. This year, we have Robinson Cano and, presumably, others, but they're not online yet. I'll update when they appear.

How's this for a cover jinx?

Photo Friday: Vintage Spring Training

In some ways, I'm still not caught up from vacation, because I hadn't intended to skip two slide-show Fridays. The plan was to have this one in the bag for two weeks ago, then resume with the weekly collections the following week. Clearly, didn't happen.

At least it's still spring training, though these images fit more toward the beginning of camp. Back in February, I bought the March 3, 1958, issue of Sports Illustrated and the April 5, 1948 issue of LIFE magazine on eBay because they had photo spreads -- and covers -- dedicated to spring training. They're fun images to look at, especially because, until recently, Al Lang Field in St. Petersburg was still used (by the Rays) and Vero Beach was still the Dodgers' home. Now, both are retired, at least as spring facilities. More images can be found at the Google LIFE photo archive, LIFE.com and SI on Getty, plus 39 covers at SI.com.

I'll dig up something for next week and then hopefully will have fresh batches of photos throughout the season. I might not get to a game a week, but I definitely have the archives to come up with something to post each Friday, as long as I stay on top of things. I don't expect I'll choose to do any more that aren't my own shots. This was a one-off look back at what spring training used to be.

Ichiro's greatest hits

Sports Illustrated's review of the decade included the best of the magazine's Sign of the Apocalypse and They Said It features from the front of the book, and my favorite subset of that segment was a breakout box they did of Ichiro's greatest hits. A couple of these cracked me up at the time and made me chuckle again rereading them, so I want to preserve them here since I know I'll eventually recycle the magazine.

April 23, 2007

On facing Red Sox pitcher and countryman Daisuke Matsuzaka: "I hope he arouses the fire that's dormant in the innermost recesses of my soul. I plan to face him with the zeal of a challenger."

June 25, 2007

On Seattle's trip to play the Indians [Which, incidentally, is where I took this photo.]: "I'm not excited to go to Cleveland, but we have to. If I ever saw myself saying I'm excited going to Cleveland, I'd punch myself in the face because I'm lying."

Sept. 17, 2007

On why he ran out of the baseline to escape a potential rundown: "I hate being touched by other people. I'd rather run away from them."

Sept. 7, 2009

Explaining to The New York Times his thoughts on the notion that "chicks dig the long ball": "Chicks who dig home runs aren't the ones who appeal to me. I think there's sexiness in infield hits because they require technique. I'd rather impress the chicks with my technique than with my brute strength. Every now and then, just to show I can do that too, I might flirt a little by hitting one out."

Zito shoots

SI.com has a great photo essay shot by A's pitcher Barry Zito. The guy's got an eye for it.

I wonder if we'll eventually see some from the visit to Dairy Queen.

Embedded baseball writing

Tom Verducci's outstanding first-person account of his five days spent as a player with the Toronto Blue Jays is a fascinating look into a major-league clubhouse. Spring training is definitely the time to do it. Had he managed to gain access for five days during the season in April (which, of course, wouldn't happen because those games count), his days would've been filled with milling around hotels, malls and playing video games.

Reading the article, which was essentially a journal of his week in Dunedin, in the magazine, took me back to 2001, when I covered the Lakewood BlueClaws. The Phillies and the BlueClaws gave me permission to join the club on a road trip for a feature article in the newspaper. Ideally, I would've gone on a slightly longer trip, one that took us to two cities in the South Atlantic League, but my duties in the office required me to choose a four-day, down-and-back trek to Greensboro, N.C. So on the last game of a homestand, I arrived at the ballpark with my computer, as usual, but also with a duffel bag for the trip. We left after the game, arriving at the Greensboro hotel sometime in the late morning. I quickly fell into the routine. Like Verducci with the Blue Jays, I found the BlueClaws players to be very accommodating. They were a bit more relaxed around me after that trip, talking more freely and openly after games and for stories. Interviews were no longer like pulling teeth, answers did not have to be coaxed out of them.

The night before we arrived, rain had soaked the field at 80-year-old War Memorial Stadium. It's so old that the war it refers to is World War I. The field has horrible drainage, so despite a hot, sunny August day, that night's game was postponed because the field was too soggy. With idle time, many of the players (as well as myself, the broadcaster, Neil Solondz, and the strength coach, who I spent most of my time with) navigated the overpass and the four-lane highway to get to a Best Buy visible from the hotel parking lot. On the way back, Neil, hitting coach Jeff Manto and I played a round of miniature golf.

I'd ride the bus to the ballpark with the players and was under even more deadline pressure to file my game stories. Once the final out was made, I'd already have a lede written up because then I had to hustle down to the cramped visitors' clubhouse down the right-field line, get the comments I needed, and zip back up to the press box to file my story before the bus left to return to the hotel.

One morning, I joined the workout group on a trip to a local gym and found myself riding a stationary bike in a line with Manto (who was the acting manager for the trip, with skipper Greg Legg having used these four days for his vacation that the Phillies allow each minor-league instructor to take during the season), the bus driver and several Greensboro residents.

The trip home was much like the ride down, leaving after the game and driving through the night, arriving back at the ballpark at 7:30 in the morning. Everyone then went home for a few hours' sleep before returning for that night's game.

I'll have to dig through my old disks to see if I have the original story to post here. If I do, it's probably the unedited version.

* * *
I also came across my scorebook from the 2002 BlueClaws season, when they hosted the South Atlantic League All-Star Game. Curious, I opened it up to see who played in that low-Class A midsummer classic. I remembered several names, but was surprised to be reminded of another.

The hometown BlueClaws featured Ryan Howard, now one of the Phillies' top prospects and the guy who hit 48 home runs at three levels last year. Also starting for the Northern Division was second baseman Jeff Keppinger, then with Pittsburgh's Hickory affiliate but now in the Mets' organization, and Jose Bautista, now the Pirates' starting second baseman. He played third back then for Hickory.

The Southern Division started Dodgers farmhand Victor Diaz at third; in two weeks he could find himself the Mets' starting right fielder if Mike Cameron isn't ready. The Mets featured three starters and four all-stars overall that year. Outfielder Angel Pagan was set to start in center and lead off, but was promoted days before the game. Catcher Justin Huber did get the start, but was traded last summer to the Royals. In left field was Jeff Duncan, who's since reached the big club.

But the name I'd forgotten was one I became aware of only a week or so before the game, when the all-star teams were announced. I hadn't pegged him as a prospect until then and I remember wondering just how long it might take this guy to get to the big leagues. He didn't start the game, but after two at bats by starting DH Scott Thorman of Macon, David Wright pinch-hit. He went 0-for-2 in the game, but 25 months later he made his major-league debut with the Mets.

Other SAL All-Stars of 2002 who have reached the majors include Willy Taveras of the Astros and Chris Young of the Rangers, who allowed the only hit in the game to the South (yes, it was a no-hitter until the eighth) but was credited with the win when the North scored three runs in the bottom of the inning.

It's a little surprising that, just two seasons later, I'm able to name so many players from low Class A who have already reached the majors. The first player from the SAL in 2001-02 who got to the bigs, I believe, was Houston reliever Mike Gallo. Now the all-stars are getting there. A few more should make it in the next year or two, but after that, if they're not there already, the dream is pretty much over.