Carp-e diem! What you missed if you missed last night

I can understand the view of the fan who, frustrated over another disappointed season by his team, finds no interest in the postseason. And I know what it's like to see your team, which seemed destined -- even a lock -- for the playoffs at the All-Star break, fall short on the final day of the season. But as much as I love college football, I can't let go of baseball. I love October weekends of football-full days and playoff baseball nights. And if you love the national pastime, it doesn't get much better than last night.

The Brewers' walk-off win over the Diamondbacks was remarkable in its own right, but the nightcap -- Cardinals at Phillies, Chris Carpenter vs. Roy Halladay -- was pretty close to perfection for a fan of the game. As a Mets fan, sure, I probably had a greater rooting interest for the Cardinals. But even in a series in which I bear little ill will against either team (the upcoming ALCS between the Tigers and Rangers falls into that category), I tend to develop an affinity for one team over the other during the course of the game or the series.

But anyway: last night. While Arizona and Milwaukee were in the 10th inning at Miller Park, Rafael Furcal stepped to the plate in Philadelphia to start Game 5 of that series and tripled to open the game. A triple is exciting whenever it happens, but the first batter against Halladay, when half the ballpark might be expecting him to flirt with a no-hitter in a must-win game? A thing of beauty, particularly when you realize that the leadoff runner on third doesn't necessarily mean a run against an ace like Halladay. Just look at Game 2, when Furcal led off with a triple and Cliff Lee stranded him there by retiring the next three Cardinals.

Halladay wouldn't be so lucky. The next batter, Skip Schumaker, battled Halladay in a 10-pitch at-bat, culminating in a double to the right-field corner to bring home Furcal. It had the makings of a big inning, but Halladay then bore down to get out of the inning with just the one run scoring. With an ace like Carpenter on the mound for St. Louis, one run might be enough. If you're a Cardinals fan, you hope so, but you want more, just to be safe. While the Phillies lineup might not be the efficient juggernaut it appears to be (it relies more on the three-run homer than manufacturing runs), at home at cozy Citizens Bank Park a home run can change the game in a hurry.

And that's what made this game so great: Every batter the rest of the way was a big one, an important one. Every out Carpenter recorded brought the Cardinals closer to the NLCS; every baserunner the Phillies got -- there were just five -- brought them closer to tying the game on a double or taking the lead on a homer. In a 1-0 game, every pitch matters to the team trailing.

So while I may not be able to watch my favorite team this postseason, after one week I've already been able to see three thrilling winner-take-all games that have had me creeping closer to the edge of my seat with every pitch in the late innings. There hasn't been a day without baseball yet this October, and tonight the ALCS begins with one of the few pitchers better than Halladay this year, Justin Verlander, putting his stuff up against the formidable Texas lineup in its own hitter-friendly home.

I'll be watching.

Sports Illustrated baseball preview history: The 2011 update

It's really not a surprise, is it? The Phillies go out and land Cliff Lee, giving them -- on paper -- the best starting rotation since the 1993 Braves, and it lands the starting five on the cover of Sports Illustrated's baseball preview issue.

The only reason I balked and wondered if they'd go with Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford in Boston is because this Phillies cover is unprecedented. (Plus, a Boston cover wouldn't have been a stretch; the magazine does pick the Red Sox to beat the Giants in the World Series.) A team has been represented as the main cover image in consecutive years -- the Yankees in 2002-03, with the entire starting rotation on that '03 cover -- but never before has one player appeared in the cover's main image in back-to-back springs. Until now, until Roy Halladay. He had the cover to himself last year, and this week he's off to the side as the other four stand behind Lee, but the placement doesn't matter. In becoming just the fifth player to appear on the cover's centerpiece twice (joining Willie Mays, Steve Garvey, Mark McGwire and Derek Jeter), Halladay is the first to do it two years in a row.

I won't rehash the full breakdown from last year, but I will update the relevant statistics.

Team appearances:
Red Sox, 7
Yankees, 6
Phillies, 5
Cardinals, 5
Dodgers, 5
Orioles, 3
Giants, 3
Reds, 3
Mariners, 2
Indians, 2
Royals, 2
Twins, 2
Mets, 2
Pirates, 2
Tigers, 2
Brewers, 1
D-backs, 1
Rockies, 1
Cubs, 1
Rangers, 1
Padres, 1
A's, 1
Expos, 1
Angels, 1
Nationals, 1

That's a total of 61 teams on the covers (accounting for two or more players sharing the spotlight in some years). Through last season, 22 of those 60 teams (before this year's Phillies) made the playoffs, with the results as follows:

Won World Series, 6
Lost World Series, 5
Lost ALCS, 2
Lost NLCS, 1
Lost ALDS, 6
Lost NLDS, 2

The Phillies last year became the first featured club to fall in the NLCS. When it comes to regular-season standings, the editors have hit on top-two teams more than the other positions combined:

1st, 20
2nd, 13
3rd, 15
4th, 6
5th, 2
6th, 2
7th, 2

Here are a few more team-related numbers:

Won 100, 6
Lost 100, 2
Player with a new team, 12
Defending champs, 13

As for individual accolades, Halladay became the third player whose cover appearance foretold a Cy Young season, the third to win 20 games, the 36th to have an All-Star season and the 10th to lead the league in at least one major category:

Hall of Famers, 16
Retired, 2
MVP, 2
Cy Young, 3
All-Star, 36
Broke record, 2
20-game winner, 3
Led league, 11

And finally, by putting the Philly five on the cover, SI has widened the gap between starting pitchers and any other position (each player counts once, not as a group, meaning the starters went from 20 to 25):

C, 4
1B, 10
2B, 1
3B, 6
SS, 5
OF, 19
SP, 25
Manager, 2
Owner, 1

Moving forward, we have regional inset images to consider. They began in 2009 with Carl Crawford, Justin Morneau, Dustin Pedroia, Manny Ramirez, David Wright and Carlos Zambrano. Last year, they included Matt Kemp, John Lackey, Brian McCann, Albert Pujols, CC Sabathia and Troy Tulowitzki. This year, we have Robinson Cano and, presumably, others, but they're not online yet. I'll update when they appear.

Setting impossible standards for the Phillies

If you're a Mets fan, you might want to sit down for this one. Heck, if you're the fan of any National League team, it's probably best that you not read this while on your feet, operating heavy machinery or holding any sharp objects.

Here are the career won-lost records and winning percentages of Philadelphia's new Phantastic Phour (they are not the Four Horsemen; as a Notre Dame alum, I won't allow it):

Roy Halladay, 169-86 (.663)
Cliff Lee, 102-61 (.626)
Roy Oswalt, 150-83 (.644)
Cole Hamels, 60-45 (.571)

Lee's signing does bring up the temptation to speculate on whether the Phillies should just go with a four-man rotation. As a throwback kind of guy, I'd love to see that. So what would that mean over the course of 162 games? Combined, their winning percentage comes out to 481-275 (.636). We're not going for an airtight scientific/sabermetric argument here; I'm simply throwing out numbers and seeing how scary the results can be. So multiplying that .636 by 162 (for a full season), Philadelphia would win 103 games -- and that's not accounting for games that the Phillies win after those starters have been removed and don't get credit for the decision.

So that's 103-59 just based on the Phour's combined career winning percentage and without using any other starters.

But a four-man -- or Phour-man -- rotation is not bloody likely, so what if Charlie Manuel only uses a fifth starter on days when he absolutely must? That is, what if Halladay, Lee, Oswalt and Hamels start every fifth day, not every fifth game, and a fifth starter only gets the ball when a string of games without off-days requires it? The starts would break down like this:

Halladay 36
Lee 34
Oswalt 34
Hamels 32
Fifth starter 26

Those numbers include a rotation reset after the All-Star break, when the Phillies benefit by getting the Thursday after the game off as well, meaning they'll have four full days from Sunday to Friday and can reset their rotation in order, one through five. Plus, under this setup with no deviations (not likely, but we're just speculating here), Halladay would pitch the Saturday before the All-Star Game and could presumably pitch three innings on two days' rest in the Midsummer Classic, then get two more days' rest before starting the second-half opener.

So adding them up, that's 136 games started by the Phour; a .636 winning percentage in those games is 86 wins. So if that percentage holds and they get nothing -- 0-26 -- from a fifth starter, they're still in contention for a division title and the wild card.

Clearly, what this means is that the pressure is entirely on the Phillies. They can only beat themselves. If this team doesn't win 120 games and go undefeated in the postseason, it's a failure, plain and simple. Anything less would be a letdown of immense proportions and they should just clean house, starting with Ruben Amaro and Charlie Manuel.

Quick thoughts: 2010 NL Cy Young Award

There's really not much to say about Roy Halladay's unanimous NL Cy Young Award today. He certainly had the numbers. Good for him.

If there was anything that was surprising, maybe it's that it was in fact unanimous. When you look at the numbers Halladay put up along with those of Adam Wainwright and Ubaldo Jimenez, who came in second and third, respectively, they were quite similar.

Player	CG	SHO	W	L	W-L%	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	ERA	HR	BF	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Pit	Str
Halladay	9	4	21	10	.677	250.2	231	74	68	30	219	2.44	24	993	.245	.271	.373	.645	3568	2441
Wainwright	5	2	20	11	.645	230.1	186	68	62	56	213	2.42	15	910	.224	.274	.330	.604	3356	2166
Jimenez	4	2	19	8	.704	221.2	164	73	71	92	214	2.88	10	894	.209	.299	.311	.610	3600	2176

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/16/2010.

Halladay did have four more complete games than Wainwright and twice as many shutouts as either runner up, and the strikeout difference was negligible. Halladay did pitch 20 more innings than either of the others, which brought his strikeouts up with the others' but also inflated his hits and homers (as did pitching in Citizens Bank Bandbox).

But then look deeper. Where I think Halladay secured the award was in walks -- just 30 in 250 innings, and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 7:1. And maybe a certain game in Florida in May, but I don't think you can put too much weight on one game for a season award, particularly when you look at the pitcher who threw a perfect game just a few weeks before -- yes, it takes talent to throw one, but a lot of it has to do with luck and good fortune. But as a tiebreaker, a final piece to put him over the top, I can buy that.

In fact, Halladay's control may be the most impressive stat of the season. Despite so many similar numbers with Wainwright and Jimenez, and despite throwing 20 and 30 more innings than the other two, Halladay was the best one at keeping runners off base -- the surest way to victory. The others allowed fewer hits, had lower batting averages and slugging percentages against them, but Halladay bested them in on-base percentage. He faced 83 more batters than Wainwright and 99 more than Jimenez, threw 212 more pitches than Waino and 32 more than Ubaldo, but it was Doc who threw more strikes by a huge margin: 2,441 to 2,166 (Wainwright) and 2,176 (Jimenez). In fact, only Jimenez (who led the NL), Ryan Dempster (3,596) and Randy Wolf (3,575) threw more pitches this season, but Halladay threw 170 more strikes than the runner-up (Matt Cain). And only Ted Lilly -- who threw 660 fewer pitches than Halladay -- had a better strike percentage, and by one point at that, 69-68 percent.

So if there's one thing we can be sure about, it's that Halladay didn't win it merely because he led the league in wins or was second in strikeouts. When you look deeper, it's clear just how good he was in 2010, mainly because he kept runners off the bases.

Oh, and those 24 homers Halladay gave up? Nineteen were solo shots ... and the other five were two-run jobs.

Photo flashback: Enjoying the meat of the sweep

Frenchy's follow-through

A busy weekend has made this look back at Saturday's win over the Braves a little outdated by now, but it's still fun to look back on the middle of a sweep sandwich involving one of the Mets' biggest division rivals -- especially when one Larry Wayne Jones Jr. played such a big part in two of the losses.

We had a friend visiting from California for the weekend and four free tickets from my wife's dad, so we invited a fourth who was also making her Citi Field debut (more for Shake Shack and the company than the baseball, but I always enjoy explaining the game to others) and were treated to a gorgeous day and dozens of pooches for Bark in the Park. I couldn't help but think of the fans' criticisms of all the nods to the Dodgers while bringing Lauren, a UCLA grad like Jackie and Dodgers fan, in through the rotunda and snapping her picture in front of the big No. 42. To top it off, Steve Garvey -- who works with the Bark in the Park sponsor, Natural Balance Pet Foods -- threw out the first pitch.

This team sure isn't perfect and this run of six wins in seven games -- coinciding with Ike Davis' arrival -- could be little more than the yang to the yin of the first two weeks to put this team one game over .500, but it is nice to be one game on the good side than one on the bad. Another series win against L.A. would be a nice springboard into a weekend in Philadelphia and a Sunday night series finale with Roy Halladay on the hill.

And, hey, look at this: Monday's rainout, which pushed Oliver Perez back to the second game of today's doubleheader, means that both Ollie and Johan Santana will have four days of rest between now and Sunday. So it's Jerry Manuel's choice of who goes up against Halladay and the Phillies on Sunday night on ESPN. Had Ollie pitched on Monday, it would've been his turn in the rotation and Johan would've been left to open the series in Cincinnati on May 3. Hmm, which would you choose for Sunday night? [2:51 p.m. update: YES!]

Here's hoping the good fortune keeps coming.

Created with Admarket's flickrSLiDR.

How's this for a cover jinx?

Excitement over Halladay

MLB.com's Todd Zolecki tweeted a photo from Clearwater this morning of Roy Halladay in his first bullpen session.

I bet a lot of Phillies fans are as excited about it as Charlie Manuel is in the background ...

On Halladay, blue caps and Jose

Count me among those who doesn't think the acquisition of Roy Halladay makes the Phillies that much better. For 2010, at least. They essentially swapped out Cliff Lee for Halladay at the front of their rotation. They went from a lefty to a righty, from one who proved he could do it in that ballpark and in the postseason to one who has yet to prove either. They gave up a pretty durable guy to one who has had some issues in his career -- but one who has also had a more dominating career, and been among the game's best pitchers for some time now. But having Halladay beyond 2010 is certainly significant.

And, I'm sorry, but I just can't kill the Mets for not getting Halladay. They didn't have the pieces, especially after adding Johan Santana. Now, of course, the farm system is a problem, and they need to hire a strong architect to get it up to be among baseball's best. And even the Phillies couldn't do it after getting Lee last year -- without trading Lee as well. So, in the end, to get Halladay, the Phillies gave up three of their top four in the year-end prospect rankings done by Baseball America -- after giving up three of their top four and four of their top 10 prospects at the time to get Lee. So between the start of the 2009 season and the end of the year, Philly dealt away seven top prospects for Halladay. Sure, Lee may have put them over the hump into the World Series, but everyone considered them a strong contender for the NL pennant before they got Lee. Adding him may have just made it easier to get there -- and to avoid a sweep by the Yankees. Had they just given the Blue Jays what they wanted for Halladay in July, they may have made out better, at least in terms of not giving up as much.

What really gets me is that the Blue Jays have to send any money to the Phillies. What the hell is that? The small-market team is giving the big-market team the cash? The are not hurting for revenue, setting a club record for sellouts in 2009 and clearly not bowing out of the pennant race anytime soon. And then the Phillies go and sign him to a $20M per year extension? So they can pay him $2o million in 2011, '12 and '13, but not $16 million in 2010? How so?

And also count me in the Blue Cap Army. I was always a member, even before it had a name or a movement. Here's hoping it picks up steam in the months leading to Opening Day.

I love what Jose Reyes had to say on WFAN, especially the part about other teams taking offense to his celebrations on the field -- because those teams, players, executives, managers are all full of crap. They're hypocrites, because they or their players do it too. I've seen Hanley Ramirez whoop it up pulling into second base on an RBI double in the sixth inning even if the run didn't change the score or significantly close/open the gap. And Shane Victorino is worse than Reyes. Don't get me wrong -- I don't think Victorino should stop, and fans of opposing teams can and should take offense. But the fans can complain without being hypocritical, because we're not the ones who make a point to clap demonstratively on an infield single.

Three duels, one night

The last time two 300-game winners took the mound to start in the same game was June 28, 1986, when Phil Niekro and Cleveland visited the Angels and Don Sutton. Neither starter got the decision in the 9-3 California (as they were called then) victory. Niekro went 6.1 innings, allowing 10 hits, three earned runs while walking seven and striking out four. Sutton lasted seven, but gave up three runs on seven hits (two of them homers) with no walks and six Ks.

The last time it happened in the National League was 1892, when Tim Keefe and Pud Galvin met for the fourth time in the past three seasons, and second time in a month, on July 21. Keefe's Phillies won that game 2-0 over Galvin's Browns after losing a July 4 meeting 9-2 in the first game of a doubleheader.

It happens tonight in Houston, when Greg Maddux takes his 305 victories up against Roger Clemens' 328. With 14 wins this season, Clemens will tie Keefe's 342 for eighth on the all-time list. Galvin finished with 364, in fifth place. Tonight's pitchers also have 11 Cy Young awards between them; where once they were tied at four each, Clemens now has three more than his opponent tonight, having won one every three years since 1998 (then 2001 and 2004).

There's another Cy Young matchup in the Bronx, where Roy Halladay and Randy Johnson are scheduled to go if the rain holds off. And in what would seem like a Cy Young matchup, had either of them won it in Oakland, former teammates Mark Mulder and Tim Hudson will pitch to one another when the Cardinals play in Atlanta. Both finished second, in consecutive years; Mulder in 2001 to Clemens and Hudson in 2000 to Pedro Martinez. This is the reason I have the Extra Innings package on digital cable. Alas, I have a friend's birthday party in New York tonight. The game I really want to see is in Houston, but so long as they play, I'll at least be assured of the Evil Empire vs. the team from the Great White North at the bar.

I'm such a good friend. Well, he is too -- $20 for a two-hour open bar, plus appetizers.