Carp-e diem! What you missed if you missed last night

I can understand the view of the fan who, frustrated over another disappointed season by his team, finds no interest in the postseason. And I know what it's like to see your team, which seemed destined -- even a lock -- for the playoffs at the All-Star break, fall short on the final day of the season. But as much as I love college football, I can't let go of baseball. I love October weekends of football-full days and playoff baseball nights. And if you love the national pastime, it doesn't get much better than last night.

The Brewers' walk-off win over the Diamondbacks was remarkable in its own right, but the nightcap -- Cardinals at Phillies, Chris Carpenter vs. Roy Halladay -- was pretty close to perfection for a fan of the game. As a Mets fan, sure, I probably had a greater rooting interest for the Cardinals. But even in a series in which I bear little ill will against either team (the upcoming ALCS between the Tigers and Rangers falls into that category), I tend to develop an affinity for one team over the other during the course of the game or the series.

But anyway: last night. While Arizona and Milwaukee were in the 10th inning at Miller Park, Rafael Furcal stepped to the plate in Philadelphia to start Game 5 of that series and tripled to open the game. A triple is exciting whenever it happens, but the first batter against Halladay, when half the ballpark might be expecting him to flirt with a no-hitter in a must-win game? A thing of beauty, particularly when you realize that the leadoff runner on third doesn't necessarily mean a run against an ace like Halladay. Just look at Game 2, when Furcal led off with a triple and Cliff Lee stranded him there by retiring the next three Cardinals.

Halladay wouldn't be so lucky. The next batter, Skip Schumaker, battled Halladay in a 10-pitch at-bat, culminating in a double to the right-field corner to bring home Furcal. It had the makings of a big inning, but Halladay then bore down to get out of the inning with just the one run scoring. With an ace like Carpenter on the mound for St. Louis, one run might be enough. If you're a Cardinals fan, you hope so, but you want more, just to be safe. While the Phillies lineup might not be the efficient juggernaut it appears to be (it relies more on the three-run homer than manufacturing runs), at home at cozy Citizens Bank Park a home run can change the game in a hurry.

And that's what made this game so great: Every batter the rest of the way was a big one, an important one. Every out Carpenter recorded brought the Cardinals closer to the NLCS; every baserunner the Phillies got -- there were just five -- brought them closer to tying the game on a double or taking the lead on a homer. In a 1-0 game, every pitch matters to the team trailing.

So while I may not be able to watch my favorite team this postseason, after one week I've already been able to see three thrilling winner-take-all games that have had me creeping closer to the edge of my seat with every pitch in the late innings. There hasn't been a day without baseball yet this October, and tonight the ALCS begins with one of the few pitchers better than Halladay this year, Justin Verlander, putting his stuff up against the formidable Texas lineup in its own hitter-friendly home.

I'll be watching.

Time to choose a bandwagon

OK, it's been two weeks since the season ended, since the Mets' collapse was complete. Time heals all wounds, and while they may not yet be healed, they are at least sufficiently scabbed over so as not to cause wincing upon being touched.

Throughout those 17 days of September, we kept reminding ourselves that the Cardinals and Tigers struggled last September, yet they ended up in the World Series. "We just have to get there," we thought.

Not so easy.

The Mets choked; they simply gave up and gave away the NL East. Instead of setting up their postseason rotation during the final week of the season against the Marlins and Nationals, they were still trying to get into the postseason. The never got there.

It wouldn't have mattered.

Is there a more amazing story in sports right now than the Colorado Rockies? This is the autumn of upstarts, where South Florida is No. 2 in the AP and BCS rankings, where Kansas is among the final handful of undefeated teams, where Arizona State is the Pac-10 team that finds itself in the "controlling its own destiny" position for a BCS berth. Yet the Rockies may be the most amazing story of all.

After a last-place finish in 2006, the Rockies weren't expected to contend until next year at the earliest, but they tore through September, compiling a 10-game winning streak and winning 13 of their last 14 to force a tie with the Padres for the NL Wild Card. Getting the one-game playoff at home, Colorado came back to defeat Trevor Hoffman in extra innings -- whether or not Matt Holliday touched the plate didn't matter when the umpire signaled that he was safe -- and entered the NLDS on a roll.

That train continued to steamroll the Phillies and the Diamondbacks -- the team with the NL's best record, and one that finished a mere game (after the Rockies' extra win in their playoff with the Padres) ahead of Colorado -- in seven straight.

Now Denver will host its first World Series, on the last weekend of October. If the NL had home-field advantage in a Series that goes seven games, the Rockies would've been playing at Coors Field in November. Frankly, I'm pulling for snow -- or maybe just a blizzard from the Rockies on an off-day.

Should the Indians win one more game against the Red Sox, they'll enter the Fall Classic as the likely favorite, with a chance to win their first championship since 1948. You can expect to see Bob Feller at Jacobs Field for Game 1 on Oct. 24. But no matter the matchup, I can find reasons to pull for any of these teams. Can Colorado keep up its insane pace? Will the Tribe break its title drought? Can the Red Sox pull of yet another ALCS comeback and then win their second title in three years after going 0-for-86?

In a you-had-to-see-it-to-believe-it year like this one, it's fitting that those are the options we're left with.

Another season done

Oy. So here we are, post-World Series. The Mets' injuries caught up to them and, despite pushing the Cardinals to a seventh game, their season ended five wins short of where it should have. The way the Tigers played in the World Series, that parade on Sunday would have been in New York.

My postseason predictions were blown up in the first round, so I didn't bother updating them, in part because it's not really fair to adjust on the fly, but also because work got so hectic -- and tiring -- that I was exhausted by the end of the NLCS. (The morning after which, I immediately got on a plane for Chicago, drove to South Bend, saw an amazing Notre Dame comeback victory over UCLA, flew back on Sunday and zipped to work for Game 2 of the World Series.) When we were throwing out our off-hand predictions at work, I did peg the Tigers to beat the A's, though in seven, not four. For the Series, however, considering the Tigers' tear through the Yankees and A's, their seemingly superior pitching and the rest it had, I questioned whether the Cardinals would even manage a lead for more than an inning or two in alluding to a four-game Tigers sweep. One guy at work went so far as to say, "Tigers in three."

But the Cardinals -- the worst World Series winner in history, if you go by win total (they had 83) -- proved, once again, that you don't have to be the best team to win, just the hottest team. That's no knock against them, either. Whatever it takes to get it done is fine by me. Had Game 7 in 1973 gone the other way, those '73 Mets would've owned the distinction -- even after this year -- of having the worst regular-season record of any Series champion.

The Cards got the Tigers to swing at everything and eeked out a few wins here and there, even getting Anthony Reyes -- who, in Game 4 against the Mets, looked like he belonged in the instructional league in Florida, not on a postseason roster -- to look like a Rookie of the Year candidate in Game 1. He faced, of course, the soon-to-be American League Rookie of the Year in Justin Verlander (my full predictions to come soon). Detroit managed one victory, but even that was stained -- literally -- by Kenny Rogers, a pitcher so reviled by fans of both New York teams that Tigers manager Jim Leyland was sure to set up his pitching rotation to make sure Rogers wouldn't pitch in Yankee Stadium in the ALDS or Shea Stadium in a potential Detroit-New York World Series. Even after Game 5 of the Series was pushed back a day because of rain, Leyland refused to pitch Rogers to try to get the Series back to Detroit for Game 6. Trying to explain it away by saying, "if it was one game left, I would pitch Kenny. But we've got to win three," Leyland also admitted that he didn't want to pitch Rogers in the environment of Busch Stadium, saying he felt Rogers responded better to the Comerica Park environment. Clearly, Rogers is such a narcisist that he prefers the adulations to the rush of quieting the jeers. Curt Schilling made no attempt to hide the joy he gets from shutting up 55,000 fans, as he did in New York in 2004.

So there goes 2006. It certainly turned out to have several surprises -- the Mets with the best record in baseball, the Tigers in the World Series, no 20-game winners, a catcher winning the American League batting title, the Marlins, Alfonso Soriano, Jonathan Papelbon and others. There'll be a lot coming up this offseason, but I'll get into that later.

Friday thoughts on the playoffs

Am I surprised at the Mets' 2-0 series lead? Not really. I am, however, suprised at just about every other outcome in the Division Series so far.

The one series at 1-1 was Tigers-Yankees? Wow.

Oakland owned the Metrodome, then completed the sweep? Woah.

San Diego dropped two at home, proving that St. Louis is their playoff nemesis? Crazy.

Speaking of crazy, what is Bruce Bochy doing not starting his best hitter, Mike Piazza, in Game 2? You carried three catchers all season and gave Piazza regular rest -- two, three days a week, or at least every day game after a night game -- for this specific reason, to have Piazza play everyday in the playoffs. Not starting him is ridiculous.

Should the Cards finish the job, and the Mets take care of things -- hopefully in L.A., hopefully on Saturday -- I don't think the St. Louis pitching will be much of a match for the Mets' hitting. New York is still five wins away from the World Series, but its loss of two starters no longer appears to be such a daunting obstacle to overcome.

Watching Yanks-Tigers right now, and Kenny Rogers is getting himself out of any jams he gets into; Randy Johnson is looking like a 42-year-old pitcher with a bad back. Say what you want about the Mets' signing of Pedro Martinez, but the Yankees' going after Johnson appears to have been the worse deal, and it has nothing to do with the players they gave up. Strictly regarding the money, the Pedro deal is, at worst, just as bad, but it's not any more debilitating than the Yankees' signing of Unit.

A sports lover's dream Saturday tomorrow. Three baseball playoff games, all spaced evenly -- 1 p.m. ET, 4 p.m., 7:30 p.m. -- and a so-so slate of college football games in which all the intriguing matchups will be available nationally. I'll be working, but I'll be watching. The only bad part is that I'll have to come into the office at some point in the afternoon, and that will be an hour of baseball and football that I'll miss.

Eyeing the rest of the postseason

ALCS
Twins vs. Yankees
Whether or not the Twins need Johan Santana to close out the ALDS against the A's will have a lot of bearing on this series. If Santana can go in Game 1 -- and potentially give the Twins three starts, if they need them -- the Twins can have a better shot at knocking off the Yankees.

New York, of course, has that formidable lineup, but the problem in the postseason -- as Alex Rodriguez learned last year -- is that slumps are magnified, and for good reason. A player can overcome a bad week or a 1-for-15 stretch and still have a good season, still be an All-Star, still win the MVP. Do that in the postseason, and your team could be going home. I think the Yankees will. Jason Giambi's wrist injury will keep him from playing first base, meaning Gary Sheffield gets that assignment after playing about a week there in September. Giambi's wrist could affect his hitting, and Sheffield's defense will be a liability.

The Yankees are on the verge of becoming the Giants, a team of aging stars. GM Brian Cashman won't let that happen, of course, but it could catch up to the Yankees in the postseason. From Randy Johnson's back to Mike Mussina's groin to Mariano Rivera's forearm/elbow to the wrists on Giambi, Sheffield and Hideki Matsui, there are any number of potential injury time bombs.

If the Twins' rotation lines up right -- and I think it will -- the Rangers' Michael Young will have not only won the All-Star Game for the American League, but he'll have put Game 1 of the World Series at the Metrodome on Oct. 21.

Twins in seven.

NLCS
Padres vs. Mets
The Shea Stadium fans will not cheer Mike Piazza as loudly this time around. And he certainly won't get a curtain call after a home run, unless it's a solo shot with two outs that cuts a Mets lead to 10-2 in the top of the ninth in Game 7.

Today's news about Orlando Hernandez's potential calf injury is a bigger blow than Pedro Martinez's because the Mets were already preparing themselves for a postseason without Pedro. El Duque was the primary reason, Exhibit A of Plan B. If Hernandez cannot pitch in Game 1 of the NLDS tomorrow, that puts Steve Trachsel in Game 1 -- Tom Glavine had already pitched his bullpen session and cannot take the spot -- and puts John Maine (unless he gets Game 1) as the Game 3 starter in Dodger Stadium. And what the heck is a 44-year-old Hernandez doing running sprints the day before he's to pitch in the postseason? He's a veteran; he should just be left to pitch.

When I sat down earlier this afternoon to run through my thoughts for the postseason, I was all set to tab the Mets for their third world championship. Yes, it's a bit of a homer call, a bit of a heart pick, but the Mets have the pieces and have had the good fortune -- and talent, ability and depth -- to get through the season with the best record in baseball (tied with the Yankees). Only the 1998 Yanks have won the World Series after compiling the best record in baseball during the regular season. A Subway Series would guarantee that one of the teams with this year's best record would become just the second one to do so. With Hernandez's injury muddling things, I'm going to have to amend my thoughts. I believe the Mets can overcome the loss of one starter, but I'm not sure about two.

I hope I'm wrong.

Padres in six.

World Series
Padres vs. Twins
The idiocy of awarding Games 1, 2, 6 and 7 of the World Series to the representative from the league that wins the All-Star Game is, as I've said, insane. It's no different from awarding home-field advantage to the team with the best spring-training record, because both are exhibition games largely decided by players who will not benefit from that which they helped to win. None of the American League's seven hits, three runs or three RBIs in the Midsummer Clunker came from a player in the postseason. At least Trevor Hoffman, who took the loss for the National League, may get to see what his ineffectiveness has wrought.

The Twins would've had home-field advantage anyway -- the American League team had it in even-numbered years under the old alternating system -- but their home crowds at the Metrodome surpass all but a few in baseball, and probably match up evenly with the likes of Boston and the two New York stadiums. In a Twins-Padres series, I see the Minnesota pitching edging out that of San Diego -- not a bad staff in itself -- and doing more to neutralize the opposing offense. If the Mets manage to find their way to the Series, I give them as good a chance as any team to win it. Without them representing the National League, I think the AL retains the crown ... for this year.

Twins in six.

Division Series predictions

What a start to the postseason. Oakland-Minnesota starts off with a pair of Cy Young Award winners in left-handers Barry Zito and Johan Santana. That game starts in about 10 minutes, so I'm going to do my best to run through my postseason thoughts before turning on the game.

A's vs. Twins
No one wanted to face the Twins in the shorter best-of-five series when they knew they'd have to face Santana and Francisco Liriano in three of the five games. Now, Minnesota is without the phenom Liriano, but because it edged out Detroit for the American League Central title, it gets homefield advantage against Oakland. The Twins went 5-1 against the A's at the Metrodome this year, and Santana was 12-0 at home. He gets the Game 1 start, and could either take a potential Game 4 on the road on short rest, or be held for a winner-take-all Game 5 back at the dome. Add in the fact that the Twins had the third-best team ERA in baseball and the best bullpen ERA (not to mention the fewest losses by relievers), and that the A's had one of the worst offenses in baseball, and Oakland's dark Division Series history does not look like it will get any brighter.

Twins in three.

Tigers vs. Yankees
Many of the Yankee fans I know are thrilled that they don't have to face the Twins -- and Santana -- in the first round. Detroit, which seemed to be on a tear heading into August and was expected to coast to a division title, faltered down the stretch, with losing records in both August and September. No too many teams reach the postseason with a 25-32 record in the final two months.

But the Tigers made it, becoming the first AL Central team to win a wild card, but now they have to turn their rotation upside-down to face the Yankees. Veteran and Opening Day starter Kenny Rogers gets the start in Game 3, with likely AL Rookie of the Year Justin Verlander taking Game 2. That leaves Nate Robertson for Game 1, where he'll match up with Yankees 19-game winner Chien-Ming Wang. Verlander gets Mike Mussina, and Rogers may be the healthy left-hander in an ancient pairing with Randy Johnson in the third game -- if the Big Unit is able to pitch despite his back problems. I think he will, but he won't be effective. Rogers leads the Tigers to a Game 3 win at home. Unfortunately, they'll have lost the first two and will fall in the next one.

Yankees in four.

Cardinals vs. Padres
Each league's Central Division nearly saw a monumental collapse, but the Cardinals managed to hold off the Astros despite losing seven in a row while Houston won seven straight in late September. In the end, the Braves got what they wanted, eliminating the Astros, who had taken them out of the previous two postseasons. So Atlanta didn't make it to the playoffs for the first time since 1990, but they still managed to end someone's season -- which they hadn't done since 2001. Yes, despite reaching the postseason in an unprecedented 14 straight seasons (1994 strike year not included), Atlanta hadn't advanced in their last four before the Mets ended the Braves' dynastic run this year.

Sorry, didn't mean to delve so deep into Atlanta's woes, as enjoyable as it is. Last year, the Cards swept the Pads in the first round, with NL Cy Young winner Chris Carpenter getting things rolling in Game 1 despite the best efforts of the St. Louis bullpen, which nearly blew an 8-0 lead. Today's Game 1 provides a rematch, with Carpenter again facing off against Jake Peavy, who revealed after last year's opener that he had sustained cracked ribs in the Padres' NL West-clinching celebration. I'm sure this year's party was a bit more subdued. But in addition to Peavy, San Diego's rotation has the stellar Chris Young and seasoned postseason veterans David Wells and Woody Williams. St. Louis has to go with Jeff Weaver, Jeff Suppan and Jason Marquis after Carpenter, in addition to a closer-by-committee after Jason Isringhausen had season-ending hip surgery. The Padres get revenge.

Padres in four.

Dodgers vs. Mets
Everyone wants to eliminate the Mets from the postseason because they don't have Pedro Martinez. While it's true that Martinez helped them jump out to an early lead by going 5-0 in April, the Mets won only six of his final 18 starts the rest of the way. They built upon their lead and coasted to the division crown essentially without their ace.

But they do have the most formidable lineup in the National League, one of the deepest benches in baseball, and a superb pitching staff -- particularly the bullpen -- even without Martinez.

The Dodgers, meanwhile, outpaced only the Pirates in the National League in home runs this season and went just 7-30 against this year's postseason field. They played the Mets close, winning three of the seven games between the teams and outscoring them by a slim 32-29 margin. However, two of those three wins were by rookies Hong-Chi Kuo and Eric Stults in a September series that meant much more to the Dodgers than it did the Mets.

Orlando Hernandez gets Game 1 for the Mets, who should have a pitching edge even in the rotation, considering Kuo's inexperience, Greg Maddux's mediocre postseason history (and the Mets' ability to score off him this season) and Brad Penny's back issues.

Mets in four.

Time to get these up before the games start. The rest of the postseason predictions to come shortly.

$203 million doesn't go as far as it used to

I may have figured out the Yankees' problem. It begins, of course, with George Steinbrenner. But I think the crux of the issue is that George gets his ideas from the wrong newspaper.

Note this 2003 article (apologize to the original site, which had trouble loading when I searched for this story today). I think George saw that and, instead of laughing, thought, "What a great idea!"

Trading for Alex Rodriguez may have worked for my buddy who won our fantasy league this year, but it hasn't done anything for the Yankees in two seasons. That's not totally fair, despite what the drunk Yankee fans were saying on the news last night, because this year's team still lacked solid pitching come the postseason. Granted, the Yankees' vaunted lineup couldn't hit much in the past five games -- but neither could the best lineup in the game, and those Red Sox were swept.

If Bernie Williams leaves for another team in the off-season, there goes another player who owns a World Series ring. Unless I'm forgetting someone, that will leave Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada and Mariano Rivera as the only regulars on the roster who were there in 2000 -- nevermind 1996, when this run truly began (otherwise known as the Joe Torre Era). I guess Tino Martinez would deserve conditional recognition, having left and returned, but I doubt he'd be a regular next year anyway.

Since I love pointing out coincidences that don't really mean anything but are otherwise fun to note, the last time the Yankees beat a one-time New York team (that is, the last time they beat the Dodgers or Giants in the World Series, even after those two National League franchises had moved to California), they didn't win the Series again for 18 years. Yet, with the way the Yankees spend, I don't expect them to go until 2018 before their next title. Somewhere around 2009 would be about right, seeing as how they haven't won the Series while a Republican is president since 1958.

* * *
Angels in five.
White Sox in five.
Cardinals in four.
Astros in four.

Those were my predictions for the four Division Series matchups. I was 4-for-4 on winners, had two series pegged perfectly and another off by one game. For the LCS, I went with the Angels in six and the Cardinals in seven, but I'm a little worried about that ALCS choice. While in some cases, I'd wonder if the layoff will take Chicago off its game, but considering the Angels' New York-to-Anaheim-to-Chicago travel from Sunday through this morning, the fact that they lost Bartolo Colon in the second and that they had to go with two relievers on top of long man Ervin Santana -- I have to hope they can salvage one of these two games on the road to have a decent shot at this series. As for the Astros and Cardinals, I'm expecting a series just as exciting as last year's and Sunday's Game 4 win over the Braves. It will be intense.

On to the postseason

I guess in my dreams, I'm a real baseball writer. Check that -- I am a real baseball writer, in that I write about the sport here; plus I have written about it in a professional outlet regularly before, have done so on occasion since, and figure I probably will again. So as "real" baseball writers do, I feel compelled to reveal my postseason predictions.

I did this last year too, though I never went back to see how my predictions matched up with the actual outcomes. Since we have at least one team in each series returning to the postseason again this year (and six out of eight overall, in fact), I'll address last year's results this year.

With the postseason starting today, I had to get this post up first. By tomorrow, I'll go back and look at my preseason predictions for this season and see how they came out, plus I'll figure out what I think about the individual awards -- MVP, Cy Young, ROY -- for this recently completed season. It's the Cy Young races that have me stumped.

This is the first postseason since 2001 (Mariners, Indians, Yankees, A's, Braves, Astros, Diamondbacks, Cardinals) in which all the games will be played on natural grass. Without going back to figure out which games in Seattle and Houston that year (and in Seattle in 2000) were played with the roofs open, I can't say the last time all postseason games were truly played outdoors. But I can tell you that 1996 was the last time -- and the only time in the wild card era -- that all eight participants had open-air stadiums (Orioles, Indians, Yankees, Rangers, Braves, Dodgers, Cardinals, Padres).

Red Sox vs. White Sox
Do either of these teams feel good heading into the postseason? This is probably the best matchup for both, perhaps not in pitching vs. lineups, but at least as far as momentum and recent play go. Neither team finished the season on an up note. Sure, the Red Sox took two of three from the Yankees and, technically, tied for the AL East division crown, but they had a 3 1/2-game lead midway through September and couldn't close it out. And we all know about Chicago -- 15 games up in the beginning of August, down to as little as a game and a half a week before the season ended. They never relinquished first place, but they had to wait until the final series of the season to pop the champagne rather than putting away the division in mid-September.

Everyone says pitching wins in a short series, so while the BoSox are banged up, the Pale Hose will have Jose Contreras (15-7), Mark Buehrle (16-8) and Jon Garland (18-10) going in the first three games. Plus, Chicago's bullpen is in better shape. Will it be enough to shut down Johnny Damon, Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz when it matters? I think so.

Last year, I had Boston downing Anaheim in four games; instead they swept. This year, I don't know if the idiots have the mojo. Pick: White Sox in five.

Yankees vs. Angels
These two met in the Division Series in 2002 and the Angels, of course, pulled off the upset on their way to their first world championship. With the Yankees' two best pitchers down the stretch -- Randy Johnson and Shawn Chacon -- not starting until Games 3 and 4, I'm not so sure an Angels victory this time would be an upset. Anaheim's got their rotation set up with Bartolo Colon, John Lackey and Jarrod Washburn in that order and has a lineup that feels more cohesive to me through the bottom half.

Of course, the Yankees have the firepower, but the successful Bombers of recent years have had a solid, set lineup that's not usually this fluid. For tonight's opener, Robinson Cano has been moved up to sixth in the order, Bubba Crosby is in center and Bernie Williams is DHing. And that means Jason Giambi has to play first base. Yikes. I'm sure New York will slug one or two out, but they're going to have to do it against Colon, Lackey or Washburn, because the Angels' bullpen is the best among the four AL postseason teams and might just be the best of the remaining eight contenders.

Something tells me that, after this amazing run through September throughout baseball, we're not going to be treated to yet another Yankees-Red Sox thriller. (Frankly, my own personal allegiances would prefer no matchup than a Yankee-dominated one.)

A year ago, when the Yanks played Minnesota, I expected two strong starts from Johan Santana, which they got, but he only went five innings in Game 4 (allowing one run) after a stellar Game 1 win and Minnesota lost in 11 innings to end its season. "[T]he bullpen will probably blow one, and it could be the clincher," I said, and it was. Santana left with a 3-1 lead but Juan Rincon gave up four in the eighth and Kyle Lohse took the loss in extras. This time around ... we don't get that New York-Boston re-rematch. Pick: Angels in five.

Padres vs. Cardinals
At least the Padres saved face by finishing the season with a winning record. It was in the best interests of the game. The Phillies would have been able to give any of the three teams a better series than the Padres will give St. Louis.

Do I even need to go into further analysis? Even a weaker Cardinals lineup without Scott Rolen and a banged-up, aged Larry Walker will outperform the likes of Ryan Klesko, Dave Roberts and Xavier Nady. They still have Albert Pujols, who may end up having a Carlos Beltran-like postseason. For one series at least, Pujols should allow the St. Louis pitching staff to sort itself out -- i.e., how will Chris Carpenter perform in the spotlight, which Jason Marquis and Matt Morris will show up? Will Mark Mulder prove to be the missing piece? Can the bullpen patch the hole left by Al Reyes' absense?

I gave the Dodgers -- who hadn't won a playoff game since 1988 -- one win last year and picked the winner of the Los Angeles-St. Louis matchup to go on to the World Series. Both happened then, and I think both can happen this time around too -- so long as the winner of this series is St. Louis. With Jake Peavy, San Diego can take one game. Pick: Cardinals in four.

Astros vs. Braves
The only rematch from 2004 in the Division Series. Not too much has changed in Houston, with the exception of Carlos Beltran and Jeff Kent leaving. But in their steads, Willy Taveras has played a solid centerfield and become an adept leadoff hitter while Craig Biggio moved to second base and Jason Lane picked up the offensive slack in the outfield. A lot has been made of the Astros' rebound from 15-30 to win the wild card, but half of those first 45 games were played without Lance Berkman and the rest were played with a still-recovering slugger. The switch hitter was batting just .179 at that point, through which the Astros were 2-20 on the road. They won the final game in Chicago, starting a seven-game stretch in which Houston went 5-2 and Berkman hit .375 with two doubles and a homer. They also won two of three in Milwaukee and went 34-25 on the road the rest of the way.

I'm convinced the Astros we saw during the last two months is a more accurate indication of what this team is than the Astros we saw during the first two. I think their veteran experience will trump Atlanta's youthfulness -- Andruw Jones notwithstanding -- and their bullpen will give them an edge on the mound. The first two pitching matchups -- Tim Hudson vs. Andy Pettitte and John Smoltz vs. Roger Clemens -- are a wash, and should be two stellar defensive battles. (I'm thinking 2-1 and 3-2 games.) But then the Braves have to turn to Jorge Sosa for Game 3 in Houston while the Astros get to throw Roy Oswalt out there. Neither team has revealed a tentative Game 4 starter because you figure the one that's down 2-1 will go back to the Game 1 guy. If the Astros are up 2-1, they may still go with Pettitte to avoid a return to Atlanta for Game 5.

Last fall, I noted that Houston's best weapon might have been its momentum, which was enough to carry it all the way to a Game 7 with St. Louis. (Well, momentum and Beltran.) This year, the only team that can match the Astros' roll is the Angels. Both teams had to battle through September and managed to do so cooly and confidently and win going away. (In Houston's case, it wasn't "going away" in the sense that the team won the wild card by a comfortable four or five games, but it had to fight off the Phillies, who kept winning, and did so.) Last year, I tabbed Houston in three and it took five with each team winning alternate games. I think Andruw and either Hudson or Smoltz will be enough for Atlanta to win one ... but that's it. Pick: Astros in four.

White Sox vs. Angels
I could have picked both LCS to be a rematch of the 2004 contests, but I just don't have a good feeling about the Red Sox and Yankees. I'm not sure where this series will go, but I do wonder if Chicago's near-collapse will be a harbinger of things to come or a wake-up call. The White Sox could have coasted into the playoffs and gone soft; maybe the battle for the AL Central with the upstart Indians will prove to be a spark. I think the advantage in a Chicago-Anaheim series will go to the team that has an easier time in its Division Series victory, but since I pick both of those to go five games, both of which would be played on Sunday, the advantage might be to Chicago, which would get to stay at home awaiting the Angels' flight. But since I'm picking through the postseason from the start, I've got to make a decision now. The edge, at this point, goes to experience.

In the 2004 ALCS, I said the Red Sox needed two wins from either Pedro or Schilling, one from the other, and one from Wakefield. They got one each from Wakefield and Schilling, plus one from Derek Lowe and reliever Curt Leskanic. I also said they needed a win against the Yankees' bullpen and, well, Dave Roberts anyone? Only I had Yankees in seven. This time? Pick: Angels in six.

Astros vs. Cardinals
2004 redux. I like the Astros more this year, but the same goes for the Cardinals. Perhaps I'm putting too much stock in Chris Carpenter's ability to pitch this postseason, but there were signs and predictions of an emergence -- if not a breakout -- last season. An arm injury kept him out of any postseason games and he then went through this year living up to the potential that many seemed to expect to see this season. I think he continues that roll and if St. Louis can get by using him only once vs. San Diego, he'll be in line to make two starts and perhaps an emergency Game 7 appearance against Houston. It'll be another heartbreaking end to the season for the Astros, but if they can't put the Braves away as easily as the Cardinals do the Padres, Houston will again have to take its pitchers as they come in the NLCS. St. Louis won last year with inferior starters to Houston's top three, and even with a rejuvenated Andy Pettitte on the Astros, the Cardinals can counter with their Cy Young candidate.

Last time, I took the Cards in six, but it went the distance. I expect a repeat. Pick: Cardinals in seven.

Angels vs. Cardinals
I'll be rooting for whoever comes out of the NL -- with the exception of the Braves -- but I think this would be a stellar Series. Albert Pujols and Vladimir Guerrero in the same World Series? Could they each win a game with a walk-off? Mike Scioscia vs. Tony LaRussa? Those two chess masters wouldn't need Fox's drawn-out intros and extended commercial breaks to make a baseball game take four hours to play, so if we get a St. Louis-Anaheim Fall Classic, I expect at least one nine-inning game to end after 12:30 p.m. on the East Coast. The Cardinals looked listless in last season's sweep to the idiots of destiny, but LaRussa has had faux-dynasties in the past (see Oakland, 1988-1992). He's made four of the past five postseasons and could get there -- and to the Series -- again in 2006. So let's say he wins this one.

In picking St. Louis in six last year, I noted that since the wild card came along in 1995, only the 1998 Yankees have compiled the best record in baseball through the regular season and went on to win the World Series. I expected last year's Cardinals to become the second. Not so. This year, because of the freefall in Chicago, the Cards' 100-62 record was one better than the White Sox' 99-63. So maybe I haven't learned. Pick: Cardinals in six.

On to the ALCS

Yesterday's game:
Astros 12, Braves 3

Astros win series, 3-2
Thirteen division titles -- or whatever it is -- and one measly World Series victory to show for it. This has got to be the worst dynasty ever. Watch: the first team to win the division other than the Braves will probably go on to win the Series. Atlanta's inevitable crumbling aside, how big is that Carlos Beltran trade now? The fans of Houston won't care if he signs with the Cubs or Red Sox or Yankees this winter if the Astros win the World Series. I think both the players and fans in Houston and Boston know that it's this year or, like, 2007, when they can come back with some seasoned younger players mixed in with a new crop of veterans. Guys like Lance Berkman, Roy Oswalt, Wade Miller, Brad Lidge and Andy Pettitte will still be around (even if they're not now, in the case of Miller and Pettitte) then, but this is the last best chance for Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Jeff Kent and Roger Clemens. The Astros, who took 10 of the 18 meetings with the Cardinals this season, will have to earn a split in St. Louis with the likes of Brandon Backe and Pete Munro. There's a chance. Each team has swept a series on the road this season. Could Backe be this postseason's Josh Beckett or John Lackey? Then that sets up Clemens and Oswalt for starts at home in Games 3 and 4, and also leaves one available to start (and the other to relieve?) in a potential Game 7. I'm sticking with my Cardinals pick in the upcoming series, but just like in the ALCS, I can see Houston riding the wave at least one more step.

This afternoon in New York, "Paul Revere" was to ride through Times Square announcing that the Red Sox were coming. The Red Sox are coming! I think it was a stunt by ESPN Radio (that's where I heard the announcement, tacked on to the end of a "SportsCenter" update), and while the excitement of the rivalry and the buzz about town is great -- I love that stuff -- I hate it when they bastardize things and screw up history. There are two things about this series for which this Paul Revere stunt might apply: The Red Sox wear red coats, just as the British soldiers did, and they're from Boston. That's it. He's a Boston figure, and if anyone gets to have him ride through the streets in a contemporary call to arms, it's the people of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Revere warned of the enemy coming to Boston, not Boston invading New Amsterdam. I once commissioned a cartoon from the artist of our campus newspaper to draw Paul Revere riding through the streets of Boston shouting, "The Irish are coming! The Irish are coming!" in advance of a Notre Dame-Boston College game. Now, that was clever.

Postseason thoughts, Day 5

Saturday's games:
Astros 8, Braves 5
Yankees 6, Twins 5, 11 innings
Dodgers 4, Cardinals 0

Yesterday's games:
Braves 6, Astros 5
Cardinals 6, Dodgers 2

Yankees win series, 3-1
There wasn't much doubt how this one would turn out, especially after the Twins blew Game 2. Even when the Yankees aren't as good as they're perceived to be, or they've been in past seasons, they somehow seem to get the job done. Now they head into the Red Sox Rematch -- er, ALCS -- with the added drama of "Do It For Mo," Mariano Rivera, who'll be coming back from Panama, where his wife's cousin and the cousin's son died when they were electrocuted while cleaning Rivera's pool. There's always something with the Yankees. The Red Sox have a better chance of pulling it off this year -- it could be their best chance to win the Series since 1986 -- but they've got one particular stat to knock off first: The Yankees have never lost in the ALCS. They're 10-0, including 6-0 since 1996. New York's only postseason losses since returning there in 1995 were in the Division Series (to the Mariners in '95, the Indians in '97 and the Angels in '02) or the World Series (the Diamondbacks in '01 and the Marlins last year). Unless the Yankees beat Curt Schilling once, Pedro Martinez twice or a combination of that, along with taking out Tim Wakefield, this one's going seven games. Schilling could very well win three games this series, and if he does, that'll do it, because the third start, naturally, would be Game 7. And if he doesn't start it, he'll be available out of the bullpen, that's for sure. But as I said in my postseason preview, I can't go against the Yankees here until it happens. I'm rooting for it with my heart, but I'm thinking that it'll be Yanks in seven. We'll see.

Cardinals win series, 3-1
Four games: pegged it. At least Lima Time is back in effect, and it helped the Dodgers end their eight-game postseason losing streak. The Dodgers' pitching wasn't considered all that spectacular by many (a view I held too), so the St. Louis lineup will have to somehow put up the same output against Houston or Atlanta if it wants to move on to the World Series for the first time since 1987. Those teams can hit, and the Cardinals may benefit from the potential of playing four of the seven games at home, but they'll have to keep either the Astros or the Braves off the board at some point to notch a win or two. Depsite the 4-0 Dodgers win in Game 3, the Cardinals still averaged 5.5 runs per game in the series, allowing 3 per game to L.A., which only scored more than three runs in its shutout victory, when, it turned out, one would have been enough. The point is, there will probably be one or two games against either the Astros or Braves in which eight runs is not enough to win.

Astros-Braves series tied, 2-2
I said the Astros would sweep, and instead, it's the only series that comes down to a decisive Game 5. Clearly, I never thought it would be coming back to Atlanta, and my sweep pick was more that I thought the Braves were the most sweep-able team of the eight. Not so much. What Houston has going for it is Roy Oswalt. He's Ace 1A on this team, and he can clearly lead the Astros to their first postseason series victory in the team's 42-year history. But he'll have to go seven or eight innings to do it, which means Houston will need a 3- or 4-run lead to keep him from getting pinch-hit for in the sixth or seventh. So more than just the way he pitches will determine how far he goes in this game. Phil Garner's getting a little heat for the way he's managed this series, and he's a bit lucky to have Oswalt going here because he couldn't use an ill Clemens to pitch the wild-card clincher on the last day of the season, so his division series rotation was set for him. The Astros should've wrapped this one up at home yesterday, and in going with Clemens on three days' rest, why lift him after five? (Ron Gardenhire's getting the same heat for lifting Johan Santana after only five innings, and he deserves it more. Why go with your ace on three days' rest in Game 4? Well, when you're down 2-1 facing elimination, it's logical. But you have to get at least six, if not seven from him.) Anyway, in Game 2, Oswalt went 6 1/3, allowing a run on eight hits and a walk, striking out four. Brad Lidge was asked to go 2 2/3 for the save, and he didn't get it, and Atlanta won on Rafael Furcal's game-winning DWI -- er, game-winning RBI -- a two-run home run in the 11th. Back in May, Houston took two out of three in Atlanta, losing the middle game (started by Oswalt) 5-4 in the 10th on an Andruw Jones home run. Essentially, that's what the Astros would be doing tonight, taking a three-game series in Atlanta after losing the second game. My pick for tonight: 7-2 Astros.

Postseason thoughts, Day 4

Yesterday's games:
Red Sox 8, Angels 6, 10 innings
Yankees 8, Twins 3

Red Sox win series, 3-0
Done and done. Good job. The Sox rolled over the Angels, and it appeared to energize John Kerry, who rolled over George Bush in the debate. Yet I digress. While listening to the Sox game on the radio as I drove home from work, Buck Martinez mentioned, twice, that Bronson Arroyo struck out 11 consecutive Mariners earlier in the season. It's a little inaccurate, which I think Martinez had right one of the times. He had 11 straight outs by strikeout, but there was a walk that made it 11 strikeouts over 12 batters. I figured I would've remembered if someone had broken Tom Seaver's record of striking out 10 consecutive batters. What a dramatic way to go on a three day rest. It's just what the Sox need. They shouldn't have to worry about losing any momentum or rhythm, because if they play the Yankees, as they most likely will, they'll be jazzed. And rested. And have Curt Schilling going in Games 1, 4, and potentially 7. If they need that many.

Yankees lead series 2-1
Ninth inning, Yankees leading 8-1. No outs. Corey Koskie is hit by the pitch. Then Lew Ford is plunked. And yet -- the Twins fans are booing Felix Heredia?? Um, hello: You're down seven runs in the ninth. A loss means you're down 2-1 in a best-of-five series. You need runs to win. You need baserunners to get that win. HBPs are GOOD. FOR. YOU. This is the problem with baseball today. It's not the Twins fans' fault; it's not just them. MLB as an organization has ingrained the thought in casual fans' heads that throwing inside to gain an advantage as a pitcher is not part of the game if you can't do it without hitting a batter. The game has become so soft because umpires are too quick to warn benches and the commissioner's office is wrong to issue directives insisting that they do so. Of course, Bud Selig isn't going to do anything to hurt The Great Bonds and his supplement-fueled, body-armored climb through the record book. On those two hit-by-pitches, the Metrodome should've been rocking like it was when Dan Gladden slid home with the winning run in '91. Johan Santana might be able to bring the series back to New York, but it's going to be a tough task for Minnesota to advance. They missed their golden opportunity in blowing Wednesday's game.

I'm off on vacation until Monday, so I'll be missing some of the weekend's action, as will this blog. So the two of you can discuss amongst yourselves until I return.

Postseason thoughts, Day 3

Yesterday's games:
Braves 4, Astros 2, 11 innings
Cardinals 8, Dodgers 3

Astros-Braves series tied 1-1
Why are they still doing the Tomahawk Chop in Atlanta? It's done. It's tired. The fans aren't even into it. When I went down for the Mets-Braves NLCS Game 1 in 1999, they handed out those foam red tomahawks to everyone who entered. They're probably still giving them out because they made so many in the 90s, expecting the Braves to advance in the postseason, that they've got boxes of them in storage in Decatur. But in the third inning, or some other early point in the game when Atlanta got a runner on with two outs, someone in the production room on the press level pressed a button, and the canned chant came from the P.A. system, and about a quarter of the 40,000 fans in the ballpark started chopping with their foam tomahawks. Not even into it. Nevermind all the offensive and politically incorrect connotations (it's way more offensive, in my mind, than a team called the Indians), but it's so yesterday and passe. And they need to be prompted! They don't start chanting or cheering until the P.A. prompts them! Ridiculous. The only team that might have less of a homefield advantage in the playoffs right now is the Angels, and that's only because of all the Red Sox fans who have migrated to Southern California. If it were the A's or Twins or another team playing Anaheim, there wouldn't be that problem. So the Braves managed to eek out a win when they tied it in the eighth and John Smoltz worked three shutout innings until Rafael Furcal -- who will go to jail when the season's over and cannot participate in any postseason celebrations because of his second DWI arrest and recent sentence -- lined a two-run homer in the 11th. So no sweep for the Astros, but I'm still sticking with my belief that this was the Braves' final home game of the season.

Cardinals lead series 2-0
It has just become official: Anyone mocking the mandated "I'm John Kerry, and I approve this message" tag that's required on campaign commercials is lame. That joke has jumped the shark. Jared -- from Subway -- began a commercial for the chain during the game. Through last night, the Dodgers are now 0-8 in postseason games since Orel Hershiser jumped into the arms of catcher Rick Dempsey in 1988, and I'm not sure a game at home with Jose Lima up against Matt Morris is going to temporarily put off that ninth loss. Getting nine losses before two wins seems to me to be a lock. Maybe Lima can bring back some of that old magic from his Astrodome days, but it would only be putting off the inevitable for one day. In the final few weeks of the season, the atmosphere had changed around Dodger Stadium -- fans were coming early and staying through the end of the game. And why wouldn't they? The Dodgers were battling, playing exciting baseball in a tight pennant race with their arch-rivals. They had something like 56 come-from-behind victories this season, second only to the Yankees. Down 0-2 in a best-of-five series, I don't expect the seats to be filled all the way to the ninth if L.A. falls behind by three or four runs. They're going to have to have a lead or be within a run or two to keep the fans around.

Postseason thoughts, Day 2

Yesterday's games:
Astros 9, Braves 3
Yankees 7, Twins 6, 12 innings
Red Sox 8, Angels 3

Astros lead series 1-0
Early in the season, when Roger Clemens was something like 9-0, I didn't want to think he was still that dominant. I figured a lot of it had to do with changing leagues and facing lineups who had never seen him and his impressive splitter. As the Astros faded, he didn't get the same press, and I look up his numbers in September, and he's 18-4. OK, that's good. He may have struggled yesterday, but he got out of those jams. He may be a bit of an ass, but he's from Texas. A lot of people are. At least he's a little more likable, and more subdued, than Barry Bonds. I can enjoy watching Clemens set milestones. But the Braves are in trouble. They've never drawn well, so they gave fans who purchased tickets to yesterday's game free tickets to today's game, just to fill seats. Yeah, great fans they have in Atlanta. But Carlos Beltran showed why he'll be the most coveted free agent this winter. Since the all-star break, when the Astros were just 44-44 and struggling, he hit only .257, with 17 home runs and 41 RBI. But he improved his strikeout-to-walk ratio ever so slightly (51 Ks to 45 walks pre-break, 50-47 afterwards) and upped his on-base percentage 5 points to .370. The biggest difference, however, was his aggressiveness on the bases: 27 post-break steals to 15 before the midsummer classic. And all three of his caught stealings came in the first half. But it's Clemens I keep coming back to, and if Roy Oswalt mimics Rocket's output, hometown boy Brandon Backe will have a chance for another big -- and historic -- win in Game 3 in Houston.

Twins-Yankees series tied 1-1
As much as the Yankees and their fans would have talked calmly and acted cooly if they had gone down 0-2 -- "We've just got to take it one game at a time"; "We've been here before"; etc. -- this team would have been in trouble going to Minnesota in such a hole. Sure, it was a big win for the Twins too, which is why Ron Gardenhire had his closer out there to finish off the game in his third inning of work. It's just that I don't get why he was out there in the 10th to begin with. Gardenhire said he left Nathan in for his third inning after the Twins had taken a 6-5 lead on Torii Hunter's home run off Tanyon Sturtze because he "didn't like our options" left in the bullpen. When you're on the road, you know you're going to have to protect a lead with the home team getting one last at-bat, so why was Nathan in there in a tie game to begin with? When the Yankees rallied, he had to bring someone in after Nathan, so why couldn't J.C. Romero have started the 10th? If he got into trouble, then Gardenhire could've brought Nathan in to get out of a jam. The Yankees were lucky to come away with this one. Mariano Rivera faltered again, and Sturtze, who was one of the relievers the team was talking up as having finished the season strong, would have been the losing pitcher. Now the question is: How will Kevin Brown pitch? He's obviously not Joe Torre's first choice, or the decision would have been announced earlier than yesterday. This may seem like an obvious expectation, but my feeling is Brown will either get shelled and not make it through the third, or he'll be brilliant and scatter four hits over seven.

Red Sox lead series 2-0
It's over. Boston isn't the Oakland A's, the Red Sox are not going to blow a 2-0 lead. There's a very slim chance this series will even get back to California. It might not make it to Saturday. Pedro sure sounds like a different pitcher now, far from the "the Yankees are my daddy" comments two weeks ago. "I was the No. 1 today, and that's all that matters," said Martinez, 0-4 with a 7.72 ERA to finish the season. "I don't care what the experts have to say, they were talking trash. Every time they give me the ball, I'm special." The Red Sox may have celebrated their postseason-clinching victory in Tampa Bay (while the Yankees like to talk about how they don't make a big deal out of postseason appearances because that's expected and their goal is to win the World Series), but Boston is playing like a calm, confident, focused team determined to be one of the last two playing this season. Bronson Arroyo might not scare many as the opposing pitcher in an elimination game, but are Angels fans really confident with Kelvim Escobar as their savior? In Boston, which might be the biggest home-field advantage this side of the Metrodome? I'm not so sure about that one.

Postseason thoughts, Day 1

Yesterday's games:
Cardinals 8, Dodgers 3
Red Sox 9, Angels 3
Twins 2, Yankees 0

Cardinals lead series 1-0
Hooray for Larry Walker. Good for him. Sixteen years in the majors, six in Montreal, nine-plus in Colorado, one playoff appearance with the Rockies in 1995. He he .214 with just three hits, one homer and three RBI. In his first game back, he slams two home runs. I listened to the game a little on the radio, called by the Mets' own Gary Cohen and Arizona outfielder Luis Gonzalez (it seemed like every inning there was a former Diamondback on the field -- Steve Finley, Elmer Dessens, Tony Womack), while I was on the road. And leading up to the game, it seemed everyone had the same feeling I did: is there one pitcher on either staff (Eric Gagne aside) who scares you? Not really. Walker's performance got me thinking about the Expos that got away, mostly because Montreal has had a great farm system and player development run the last 15-20 years, but the team can never keep its own talent because of financial constraints. Walker may have been the biggest: one of Canada's own, he didn't want to leave, but Montreal couldn't keep him. We've also got Vladmir Guerrero and Bartolo Colon (not brought up and developed by the Expos, but unable to stay because of financial reasons) in Anaheim (along with Andres Galarraga, who's not on the postseason roster, and backup outfielder Curtis Pride), Orlando Cabrera and Pedro Martinez in Boston and Javier Vazquez in New York. So with former Expos on four of the eight playoff teams, we've got a shot at seeing one of them soaking in champagne in three weeks.

Red Sox lead series 1-0
I'm not going to get ahead of myself here (because it's only a 4-1 Astros lead in the third), but could you imagine a World Series Game 1 in Boston with Curt Schilling facing Roger Clemens? Fox executives would be all tingly inside. The Red Sox seemed determined yesterday, and depending on which Pedro we see tonight, this one could end a lot faster and end up more wide-open than anyone expected.

Twins lead series 1-0
I think even the biggest Yankee fans expected this one. Johan Santana is pitching like God, but with a better slider. I'm not sure, but I think I saw Rudy Giulliani on ESPN this morning -- taking a break from his tireless campaigning for President Bush -- trying to convince everyone that, despite appearances, the Yankees actually won this debat- er, this game. But all this means is that the Twins didn't let last week's sweep in the Big Apple affect them. They may need to watch out: In 2001, Tony Womack's father passed away, and Fox loved that storyline. It helped that he had some big hits in that World Series for Arizona. I can't tell you how many times I heard someone at the network explain last night how Jacques Jones took the redeye back from California, where his father died over the weekend, and will return there after tonight's game for the funeral tomorrow before meeting the team back in Minnesota for Game 3. Jones homered last night.

It's the top of the fourth in Atlanta right now, and the Braves have left seven men on in three innings. Clemens has gotten into two bases-loaded jams and wiggled out of both, allowing the one run in the first. If they can't get those guys in, they're done.

Season review and postseason picks

I was a few days late on my preseason predictions, so I'm going to make a point of getting my postseason prognostications posted promptly. And with alliteration.

But first, let's look at how things fared compared to how I thought it might go. It's not pretty.

NL East predictions
Phillies
Marlins
Braves
Mets
Expos

NL East reality
Braves
Phillies
Marlins
Mets
Expos

More so than last year, this was the Phillies division to lose, and they did. And so did Larry Bowa, who's now looking for a job. What I got right: 1. "It just means that [the Marlins have] got a good chance of having their first winning season in which they don't win the World Series." 2. "... while I'd like nothing more than to see J.D. Drew continue his mediocre career, something tells me that there's going to be a little bit of that inexplicable Braves magic that keeps him healthy for 145 games this year." He played exactly 145 games. 3. "Seventy wins this season [for the Mets] would be a small improvement and probably not enough to bring Art Howe back." They won 71.

NL Central predictions
Cubs
Astros (wild card)
Cardinals
Reds
Pirates
Brewers


NL Central reality
Cardinals
Astros (wild card)
Cubs
Reds
Pirates
Brewers

The Cubs' injuries were just too much -- 20 starts each from Mark Prior and Kerry Wood, Sammy Sosa out a month and his streak of 40 home runs and 100 RBIs is snapped. Despite all that, they were in the driver's seat with a couple of weeks to go, and they couldn't win. I'm annoyed that my Mets had to play spoiler to the Cubs, taking two out of three at Shea on the next-to-last weekend of the season, but the Cubs then went and dropped three of four to the Reds and couldn't beat the team they would've faced in the division series, the Braves, when their backs were to the wall. They gave up after losing those two 12-inning games to the Reds. The difference between the Astros and Cubs, both of whom had solid starting pitching and a dangerous, if aging, lineup? Houston lost Andy Pettitte and Wade Miller for longer stretches than Chicago lost Prior and Wood, and they didn't fold. What I got right: 1. "... [if] they don't lose Sammy Sosa for a month ..." 2. "In this division, second place should still mean new life in the postseason." 3. The Astros did win the wild card, though that wasn't decided until the last day of the season. 4. I don't know exactly when it happened, but at some point you could draw a line in the standings after the No. 3 team in this division, and those three on either side of the line would stay on that side of the line. 5. Reds fourth, Pirates fifth, Brewers sixth. 6. The Reds did have a 100-HR outfield, but they needed four players to do it: Adam Dunn (46), Ken Griffey Jr. (20), Austin Kearns (9) and Wily Mo Pena (26) = 101. 7. "Once it's clear that Kris Benson is back from his injuries, he'll be traded for prospects."

NL West predictions (ugh)
Diamondbacks
Padres
Giants
Dodgers
Rockies

NL West reality
Dodgers
Giants
Padres
Rockies
Diamondbacks

I don't know why I put so much faith in Randy Johnson, Luis Gonzalez and Richie Sexson. This team was nearly as bad as the 2003 Tigers, and Detroit didn't have anyone close to the caliber of a Big Unit, a Gonzo, a Sexson or a Steve Finley. Of course, come September, Johnson was the only one still coming to Bank One Ballpark every day. This one was a car wreck. What I got right: 1. The Padres were in contention. 2. "I really think any of these five could finish anywhere in the division, with the exception of the Rockies in first and the Giants in last." At least I hedged my bets with the possibility of the Diamondbacks crumbling. 3. I'm really stretching here: "But perhaps more than any other team in contention, the Diamondbacks need to avoid DL time by its [d'oh! should be "their"] stars. They can't afford to go two weeks without a start from the Big Unit, or lose Luis Gonzalez and his injured elbow to season-ending surgery. If either of those happen, they're done, making this a very risky pick."

AL East predictions
Red Sox
Yankees (wild card)
Orioles
Blue Jays
Devil Rays

AL East reality
Yankees
Red Sox (wild card)
Orioles
Devil Rays
Blue Jays

Yes, I picked with my heart and not my head. Certainly, the Red Sox had the talent to take the division, and they pushed the Yankees until the final week of the season. Had they not fallen 10 back in August, it might've happened. Coulda, woulda, shoulda. I guess, like with the Braves in the NL East, I really can't believe anything else will happen until it does. What I got right: 1. For the first time since Tampa Bay came along, the order of the division was different, only it was the Devil Rays in fourth and the Blue Jays last, instead of a change at the top. 2. The wild card went to the second-place team in the AL East. 3. "The Yankees will probably win the division with the Red Sox taking the wild card." How's that for taking the easy way out? 4. "I also suspect you'll see Jason Giambi and Bernie Williams on the DL at some point." OK, that one too was like predicting the Pope would pray today. 5. "Hideki Matsui will improve upon last year's numbers and Enrique Wilson will not play second base all season." 6. "Kevin Brown will likely break down again." 7. The Orioles finished third!

AL Central predictions
Royals
Twins
White Sox
Indians
Tigers

AL Central reality
Twins
White Sox
Indians
Tigers
Royals

So much for the Garth Brooks Theory. Having the country singer in spring training did not help the 2004 Royals the way it did the 1998 NL Champion Padres or 2000 NL Champion Mets. Maybe because they're in the AL. At some point this season, it actually looked like Brooks had a chance to be called up by Kansas City. I should've read into my own comments when I noticed (as I just did now) that I didn't say anything specific about players actually on this team and instead talked about the guy who wrote "Friends In Low Places." Is the AL Central basement low enough? What I got right: 1. "While four out of the five teams in the NL West have a shot at the division title [not so much that part], it's a race among three here. By September, it will be down to two." It was a race among three, when the Indians made their August run. By September, it was down to the Twins and White Sox. 2. "88 games may be enough to win baseball's weakest division." It would have been -- the first-place Twins won 93, the second-place White Sox 83. 3. "[The Tigers] may have a chance to fight Cleveland for fourth place." OK, so they took fourth place by 14 games. But I said they could have a chance. 4. If you move the Royals from first to last, I had the order of the other four teams correct.

AL West predictions
Angels
Athletics
Mariners
Rangers

AL West reality
Angels
Athletics
Rangers
Mariners

I did it! I pegged the first two teams in the division! I got one right! Whew. OK, that's enough to bring me back next year. Just don't read what I wrote about Texas. What else I got right: 1. "It's going to be a great race, that's clear." 2. "... many question whether Arthur Rhodes can truly be a closer." Welcome, Octavio Dotel. 3. "Seattle's biggest detriment is its age."

Now, quickly, on to the postseason.

Twins vs. Yankees
If Minnesota hadn't been swept in New York last week, I'd give them a shot. But after that result, I think they may be doubting themselves. Johan Santana very well may win two games in this series, but the bullpen will probably blow one, and it could be the clincher. Let me say this (and I'll try not to play it safe in every series I pick here): If the Twins beat the Yankees, I wouldn't be surprised to see Bud Selig handing a very large trophy to a champagne-drenched Ron Gardenhire. Pick: Yankees in five.

Red Sox vs. Angels
The last time the Angels won the AL West was 1986. They faced the Red Sox in the ALCS. I don't think that matters, I just wanted to point it out. OK, this is hard. I was about to write that I really, truly believe that either of these teams could win the AL pennant. Which means I would've been picking any of these four teams. Look, as good as the Angels are, they're going to have to face Curt Schilling and Pedro Martinez in three of a potential five games. They may have been able to win the division without Jose Guillen, but can they win a best-of-five series? I don't know. Besides, everyone wants to see a Red Sox-Yankees ALCS go seven games again. Which means it probably won't happen. I'm going with it though. [A caller to WFAN today made a very good point: The Red Sox had better win in three or four, because if it goes to a fifth game, that would be on Sunday, and Curt Schilling would pitch, meaning he won't be available until Game 3 of the ALCS against the Yankees on Friday.] Pick: Red Sox in four.

Dodgers vs. Cardinals
Good pitching beats good hitting, huh? Both have good pitching, but not much more than that. Do the names (and stats) of guys like Jeff Weaver, Odalis Perez, Jose Lima, Matt Morris and Jason Marquis seem like the top pitchers on division winners? Not so much, in this day and age. I'll probably be rooting for the winner of this series to to go The Series. Pick: Cardinals in four.

Astros vs. Braves
What a run by Houston. The best thing going for them may be that they're the hottest team heading into the postseason, and the last two champions -- the 2002 Angels and 2003 Marlins -- carried the same title on their October runs. Roger Clemens and Roy Oswalt may in fact be the best 1-2 pitching punch in the playoffs (No? Who then?). Had he not missed the season finale with a stomach ailment, Clemens would've won 19 to go with Oswalt's 20. But that missed start means he gets to start Game 1 in Atlanta, followed by Oswalt. Why is all the Cy Young talk among Clemens, Jason Schmidt, Randy Johnson and Carl Pavano? It could be Oswalt's. As for this series, I think it could be the first series win for Houston. And I'm going all in on the prediction: Pick: Astros in three.

Red Sox vs. Yankees
No, I'm not going to do it. As I said in my AL East review earlier, I just can't imagine it until it happens. I'll be rooting for it, but I'm going to wuss out and go the other way with my pick. But I'll put it this way. What the Red Sox need to do to win: Like the 2001 World Champion Diamondbacks, they may need four wins from their two aces, Schilling and Martinez. But can Pedro do it against the team he called his daddy? Maybe 1-1. Tim Wakefield could pick up the other one. Essentially, the Sox need two wins from either Schilling or Pedro, and at least one against the Yankees bullpen. What the Yankees need to do to win: Not blow leads in the late innings. If the bullpen is perfect, the Yankees move on. I'm keeping it that simple. I figure that each team will win a barnburner and a close one -- 11-9 and 3-2 type games -- which puts us at 2-2. Throw a blowout to each team and we're at 3-3. Game seven, Yankee Stadium. Pick: Yankees in seven.

Astros vs. Cardinals
An all-wild-card World Series would mean Roger Clemens goes back to Boston. Another Yankees vs. wild card World Series means Clemens returns to the Bronx. I don't know ... Clemens took off to start the season and never really slowed down. To think he will now may be falling for the same thing all over again. But I'll bite. I just love St. Louis' lineup and defense. Look, no one stands out on their pitching staff, but they've got capable starters and a reliable closer. Remind you of anyone? The 2002 Angels, perhaps? Granted, Anaheim didn't lead the majors with 105 wins, but they got it done in the postseason. Pick: Cardinals in six.

Cardinals vs. Yankees
No matter what the World Series matchup, there's a good chance there will be a lot of talk about history. Yankees vs. Cardinals, Dodgers or, for the third time in eight years, Braves. Yankees or Red Sox vs. Clemens. Cardinals vs. TWins. Twins vs. Braves. But a St. Louis-New York Series would pit the two cities with the most titles against one another (Yankees, as everyone knows, have 26; Cardinals have nine. The A's do as well, but they don't get to play this postseason, and they've done it in two cities). So Yankee fans may think otherwise, but I just don't see them as the favorite heading into this postseason. They're not the perceived lock that they've been in past seasons. Yet only once since the start of the wild card era in 1995 has the team with the best record in the regular season won the Series -- the 1998 Yankees. But this time, their pitching is the weakest it's been on this run. Their best pitcher is Mariano Rivera, and he's been worn out this year, pitching the most innings since 2001 (75 2/3 this year to that season's 80 2/3), and we all know how that ended. Sure, it was only five more innings than last year, but he's 34 now. Eh, that probably doesn't mean anything. Still, that Yankees lineup that everyone thought was the best in baseball? No better than second-best. St. Louis slugs it out.

Pick: Cardinals in six