One last season for the B-Mets?

I wasn't planning another post today, but then the long-rumored news that Ottawa's attempts to bring in a Double-A club in 2013 might mean the end of the Binghamton Mets seemed to become a reality. So that sparked some speculation on Twitter of where the affiliations would end up. For some reason, affiliations in minor league baseball and the shuffling (sometimes scrambling) that happens every two years intrigues me as much as free agency in the offseason. Maybe more. It might stem from the 2002 shuffling period, when I reported on the Red Sox and Trenton Thunder ending their affiliation, opening the door for the Yankees to swoop into Mercer County Waterfront Park.

But I wasn't satisfied with discussing this latest news 140 characters at a time, so I went to look up the most recent info on when the player development contracts are up around the minors. Binghamton is one of those expiring after the 2012 season, as is New Hampshire -- the current Blue Jays affiliate in the Eastern League. And with Double-A baseball back in Canada, the prevailing speculation is that the Jays would move their affiliate to the new Ottawa franchise. (For his part, Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopolous is denying any interest in Ottawa, but that's no surprise considering that, at the moment, there is no team there and his club is under contract with New Hampshire.)

Should Toronto and Ottawa team up on a new PDC, the Mets could potentially move their Double-A affiliation to New Hampshire. Another possibility proposed is that the Twins might leave New Britain for New Hampshire. Minnesota has had its Double-A club in the Hartford suburb since 1995, but maybe the Twins would trade Rock Cats for Fisher Cats and move to the newer facility (opened in 2005) up in Manchester.

Here are all the Double-A affiliations that expire after this coming season, in order from the longest relationships to the newest. In some cases, the relationships go back longer than the franchise has been in that location. For example, the Royals have been in the Texas League since the club was in Wichita in 1995, but it moved to Arkansas (somewhere in the northwest part of the state, I think) in 2008:

League	Club	Parent	Since
Eastern	Akron Aeros	Indians	1989
Eastern	Binghamton Mets	Mets	1992
Eastern	New Britain Rock Cats	Twins	1995
Texas	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	Royals	1995
Southern	Huntsville Stars	Brewers	1999
Texas	Midland RockHounds	Athletics	1999
Eastern	Erie SeaWolves	Tigers	2001
Texas	Arkansas Travelers	Angels	2001
Eastern	Portland Sea Dogs	Red Sox	2003
Eastern	Richmond Flying Squirrels	Giants	2003
Eastern	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	Blue Jays	2003
Eastern	Harrisburg Senators	Nationals	2005
Southern	Mobile BayBears	Diamondbacks	2007
Southern	Tennessee Smokies	Cubs	2007
Southern	Jackson Generals	Mariners	2007
Texas	San Antonio Missions	Padres	2007
Southern	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	Reds	2009
Southern	Jacksonville Suns	Marlins	2009

Now, based on the relationships and/or location, a few thoughts -- with no background or first-hand info; these are just gut feelings -- on which affiliations are most likely to be renewed or not:

No Need to Pack: Indians (Akron), Royals (Northwest Arkansas), Tigers (Erie), Red Sox (Portland), Nationals (Harrisburg)*, Marlins (Jacksonville). These are all geographical fits, including several long-time commitments going back more than a decade.

*I put the Nationals-Harrisburg relationship here because the Pennsylvania capital is a comfy 120 miles from D.C., farther than only low-A Hagerstown and high-A Potomac in the Washington system. However, with the Harrisburg ballpark prone to flooding (it being on an island and all), the Nationals could very well decide they'd rather not have their players in that environment. They could easily choose Richmond (107 miles away) instead.

Comfortable Marriages (likely to re-up on account of not having an option that much closer to the parent club): Twins (New Britain), Cubs (Tennessee), Padres (San Antonio), A's (Midland), Angels (Arkansas). Congratulations, Oakland! You have the western-most Double-A club in baseball! I can't imagine any of the West Coast teams would want to get out of the Texas League -- and I imagine the Giants would love to get in there -- but it tends to be a case of musical chairs. As for Minnesota, they could try to get a Midwestern affiliate in either the Texas or Southern Leagues, but since both of those leagues are entirely below the Mason-Dixon Line, those cities wouldn't be that much closer to Minneapolis than any Eastern League cities.

In a Rut (probably stuck, even if they wanted to move): Brewers (Huntsville), Mariners (Jackson), Diamondbacks (Mobile), Reds (Pensacola). Maybe Milwaukee would like to get one of the Tennessee clubs, putting its Double-A affiliate closer to both the parent club and the Triple-A club in Nashville. And the Mariners might like to get into the Texas League, but they'd have to usurp one of the California clubs from that circuit. The Reds' affiliate moves from Zebulon, N.C., to the Florida panhandle after a three-city franchise shuffle that saw the Carolina Mudcats (previously the Reds' Double-A Southern League affiliate) slide down to the high-A Carolina League, replacing Kinston, N.C., which is now without a club for the first time since the 1970s.

On the Market (three or four that are most likely to be shuffling come September?): Mets (Binghamton/Ottawa), Giants (Richmond), Blue Jays (New Hampshire), Twins (New Britain). All have been discussed above, and the Blue Jays and Twins -- listed in two categories, on purpose -- are really only here because of that speculation regarding the Ottawa franchise. Maybe everyone will be happy where they are and Toronto, Minnesota and San Francisco will all re-up, leaving the Mets in Ottawa (not too far from Buffalo, if the Mets renew with their Triple-A club -- no sure thing, but that's another post). The Giants have been in the Eastern League since 2003, when the affiliate was in Norwich, Conn. The franchise moved to Virginia before the 2010 season. But you'd have to think there's some interest in moving west, even if the options aren't that much better. Ideally, I'm sure the Giants and Mariners would love to find a way to expand the Texas League by two franchises, but that would have to be at the expense of either the Eastern League or Southern League.

One other point: As mentioned in the ESPN New York post linked at the top of this post, Binghamton would likely continue to host an affiliated team in 2013, drawing the Batavia franchise (currently a Cardinals affiliate) from the New York-Penn League. As mentioned in the Ottawa Citizen,

The Batavia franchise has been on the selling block for years. The community owned Muckdogs, playing in the smallest venue in that league, have constantly lost money while being operated by the Triple-A Rochester Red Wings.

That also may be another post. But no matter how it all comes down, it looks like we're in for some franchise movement -- and new logos, uniforms and team names -- in addition to the usual affiliation shuffles this fall.

2008 preview: AL Central

DETROIT TIGERS

In general

This is probably the most-improved team in baseball; certainly in the American League. Not only did the Tigers add an ace-quality pitcher -- and a left-handed one at that (Dontrelle Willis, of course) -- but they also got one of the game's top young third basemen in the deal (Miguel Cabrera, natch), all without giving up anyone who would've been a key part of the Opening Day lineup. Add in the acquisitions of a superb defensive shortstop (Edgar Renteria) and more-than-capable left fielder (Jacque Jones), and you've got upgrades at four spots, plus a lineup that will bat a former MVP eighth or ninth (Ivan Rodriguez). The trade that brought in D-Train and Miggy C. may have cemented the Twins' decision to trade Johan Santana. Detroit won 88 games last year, though it was still eight games behind Cleveland. These moves could very well make up those eight games, but if not, they could surely secure a Wild Card spot, thereby potentially blocking the Yankees from the playoffs. Go Get 'Em, Tigers!

What I look forward to seeing

Can the Tigers score 1,000 runs? That seems to be the over/under everyone is setting for this latest Murderers Row. (Are we still allowed to say that? The PC police haven't come out against that yet, have they?) What will Justin Verlander do for an encore after his 18-6, 3.66 season? In a record seemingly created just for him, the young right-hander is the only pitcher in baseball history to throw a no-hitter, start a World Series game, be a Rookie of the Year and an All-Star in his first two seasons, according to The AP. Is Curtis Granderson the closest thing this generation has to Willie Mays? I mean, he did become the first player since Willie Mays to post 20 homers, 20 doubles, 20 triples and 20 stolen bases in the same season in 2007. Does he reach 30-30? Can he set a post-Dead Ball Era record with 27 triples? Not since Kiki Cuyler's 26 in 1925 has anyone hit that many, and all the higher figures came no later than 1912.

CLEVELAND INDIANS

In general

Ninety-six wins won the division last year, though 89 would've gotten it done. But it may take that 96 in 2008. The Indians lost little (Kenny Lofton and Trot Nixon), though they gained little (Masahide Kobayashi, Jamey Carroll and Jorge Julio). Provided everyone stays healthy, we should see more of the same from the Tribe in '08. Having Travis Hafner and David Dellucci fully healthy will be a bonus, and a full season of Franklin Gutierrez will push the aging Casey Blake down to the ninth spot in the batting order. Grady Sizemore sets the table once again, but Asdrubal Cabrera will occupy the No. 2 spot from the outset.

On the mound, Cy Young winner C.C. Sabathia will be pitching for a contract -- as we'll hear each and every time the Indians appear on national TV. Along with the contract Santana signed and what it could mean for C.C. But what will Fausto Carmona bring for an encore from his breakout season? Another 19-8 campaign would be a lot to ask for, so can he put up 14-15 wins? That would be a good mark to hit. But after those two, you have Jake Westbrook, who underwhelmed in 2007 with a 6-9 record; Paul Byrd, who somehow won 15 games without ever throwing a pitch faster than 78 mph; and young lefty Aaron Laffey, who made his debut last August. And therein I think lies the difference between the Tigers and Indians. Cleveland doesn't have the offense to match Detroit, and the Tribe's bottom three in the rotation don't make up the difference -- nor do they match up well with the Tigers' bottom three, whatever the combination of Kenny Rogers, Jeremy Bonderman, Willis and Nate Robertson it turns out to be.

What I look forward to seeing

Sizemore. I drafted the guy on my fantasy team in '06 and enjoyed the emergence, and I like what he brings to the game. He's fun to watch. There's Sabathia, too. How does he fare with the expectations and pressure of coming off a Cy Young Award and playing through the final year of his contract? That's a pretty hefty duo with which to deal. I'll also keep an eye out for the return of Shin-Soo Choo, who may have an even bigger assignment in his future. I'm also curious to see just how tight this AL Central race is, and whether the runner-up in the division has enough to beat out the AL East runner-up for the Wild Card. Last year, the Yankees beat out the Tigers for the extra spot -- and then lost to the Indians in the Division Series. This year, the Yankees could be fighting the Indians for that last spot in the American League playoff bracket.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX

In general

Getting through the middle of the White Sox lineup is going to be a chore this year, especially in Chicago. From Jim Thome at No. 3 to Paul Konerko to Jermaine Dye to Nick Swisher, you've got four likely 30-home run hitters (Thome and Konerko passed that mark last year, Dye hit 28 and Swisher hit 22 while playing half his games in power-sapping Oakland) who will make any at-bat with runners on base a scoring opportunity. And there's balance between left-handed hitters and right, so playing the matchups won't usually be an option. In front of Thome, you've got the still-developing Jerry Owens and the veteran Orlando Cabrera, who hit .301 and OPSed (is that a verb yet?) a decent .742 for a No. 2 hitter. In the potent Angels lineup, he scored 101 runs and drove in 86, which he could somewhat easily repeat here. The bottom third will snuff some rallies, though, with A.J. Pierzynski followed by either the back-from-injury Joe Crede or the up-and-coming Josh Fields and the yet-to-be-determined Danny Richar (or Jose Uribe, who will vie for the second-base gig now that Cabrera has subplanted him at shortstop).

Mark Buehrle leads the staff, but other than his no-hitter last year, he turned in a pedestrian 10-9 campaign with a respectable 3.63 ERA and parlayed that into a $50-million contract. It remains to be seen just whether that was a bargain or overpayment. Javier Vazquez rebounded a bit with a 15-8, 3.74 season, including 213 strikeouts in 216 innings. But then they're looking at John Danks, Jose Contreras and Gavin Floyd, who combined to go 17-35 in 2007, with each pitcher's ERA above 5.00. I'll always have a soft spot for Floyd, the former top pick of the Phillies who spent the 2002 season at Class A Lakewood, but this is the season in which he has to emerge as a middle-of-the-rotation starter, or he could be cemented as a bust. And to think that he was once looked at as a No. 1 or 2 starter, at worst.

What I look forward to seeing

Continuing with a theme, I do want to see what Floyd can do. This is the turning point for his career. We'll know what kind of pitcher he's going to be before 2008 is out. I want to see how Swisher does in a new environment, one that plays more to his strengths -- gap power, for one -- and puts him closer to his Ohio roots (with at least nine trips to his home state each season). He's also one of the remaining "stars" of Moneyball, along with Joe Blanton, whom the A's drafted that year. One of the signature draftees, catcher Jeremy Brown, announced his retirement recently, citing family reasons as much as his progress -- or lack thereof, save for five games in the bigs -- through the Oakland organization.

MINNESOTA TWINS

In general

With Johan gone, anyone want to guess Minnesota's Opening Day starter? No, they're not pushing Francisco Lirano back from Tommy John surgery to take the assignment. Scott Baker anyone? Yeah, it's him. Considering what the Tigers did to improve and what the Indians didn't do (take any significant steps backward) -- and that Minnesota finished 17 games behind Cleveland and nine behind Detroit in 2007 -- the Twins had to trade Santana. They weren't going to win with him this year, so they might as well set themselves up for the future. Outfielder Carlos Gomez is the most Major League ready, though right-hander Phil Humber could be close. Minor league pitchers Kevin Mulvey and Delois Guerra are tougher to peg. But then, when the Twins dealt Pierzynski to the Giants and got minor leaguers Lirano, Joe Nathan and Boof Bonser in return, everyone thought they were crazy for dealing an All-Star catcher for three unknown bush leaguers.

So the Twins enter 2008 with Gomez in a starting role for the first time, leading off with his career OBP -- albeit truncated, still-getting-started career -- a measley .288. But he's got plenty of speed (with the Mets, it was said he was faster than Jose Reyes) and can make contact. He'll run down everything in center field -- though whether he'll make Twins fans forget Torii Hunter is a longshot, because he won't be the run-producer at the plate that Hunter was -- and has a good arm. Once he makes consistent contact and finds the gaps with regularity, he could be a threat at the top of the order. Beyond Gomez, it's a formidible stretch of Joe Mauer, Delmon Young, Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer, plus Jason Kubel another year removed from knee surgery. The bottom third, however, leaves us with Brendan Harris, Mike Lamb and Adam Everett, then a return to Gomez. So Mauer may have to be a bit of a table-setter at times this year.

Beyond Baker, the Twins are looking at Bonser, Liriano, Livan Hernandez and Kevin Slowey, though he may have to win the fifth spot. I can't say there's anyone in that rotation that scares me, though I was hoping the Mets would sign Hernandez through much of the offseason -- until they landed Santana. He'll eat up innings, but he gives up a lot of hits, so he needs a good defense behind him. I'm not sure the Twins have that anymore, not without Hunter.

What I'm looking forward to seeing

Liriano is the big question. Is he back? Or when will he be? Though it probably won't happen this year, can he make Twins fans forget -- at least a little -- about Santana? Morneau and Cuddyer are secured with long-term contracts now, so their relationship in the lineup will be interesting to watch. They, along with Mauer, could be anchoring the Twins' lineup for the next decade. And then there's Delmon Young, a former overall No. 1 pick who gets a fresh start in Minnesota. He played well last year, but he may never have put his minor league transgressions behind him had he stayed in Tampa Bay.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS

In general

The Royals have a good young trio in Mark Teahen (a product of the three-way trade that sent Carlos Beltran to the Astros), Billy Butler and Alex Gordon. New Jersey-bred David DeJesus leads things off, but he'll never replace Beltran's production. He's just not that kind of player. Mark Grudzielanek bats second and provides the veteran leadership, because the other veteran in the lineup is Jose Guillen, and while he'll bat cleanup (after his 15-day suspension to start the season), provide power and be an anchor in the lineup, I'm not sure what kind of clubhouse leader or example he'll be for the young core.

On the mound, Gil Meche was signed last year for $55 million, and everybody laughed. But his 3.67 ERA should have been good for a 13-9 record, not the 9-13 he turned in. After one season, at least, it doesn't look like such a bad deal. We'll see what the next four bring. He's followed by 2007 Rookie of the Year contender Brian Bannister (who may have been the difference between an NL East title and The Collapse for the Mets last year had they not traded him) and former prospect Zack Greinke, who has returned to the rotation and seems to be realizing his potential after dealing with some personal issues. Brett Tomko and Jorge De La Rosa top off the rotation, but their 12-24 combined record in '07 gives you an idea of what to expect this year.

What I'm looking forward to seeing

I'm always watching the Jersey guys (and the Notre Dame guys), so I'll watch DeJesus closely. He's solid, Brett Butler type of player, I think. Gordon had a rough rookie campaign, hitting just .247 with 15 homers and 60 RBIs after many expected him to make it a close AL ROY race with Daisuke Matsuzaka, if not run away with it. And Teahen needs to bounce back after following his 2006 season of 18 homers and 69 RBIs with just seven and 60 in '07. And of course there's Guillen, who has made things interesting in several of his previous stops and who opened his Royals tenure with a wig earlier this week.

Eyeing the rest of the postseason

ALCS
Twins vs. Yankees
Whether or not the Twins need Johan Santana to close out the ALDS against the A's will have a lot of bearing on this series. If Santana can go in Game 1 -- and potentially give the Twins three starts, if they need them -- the Twins can have a better shot at knocking off the Yankees.

New York, of course, has that formidable lineup, but the problem in the postseason -- as Alex Rodriguez learned last year -- is that slumps are magnified, and for good reason. A player can overcome a bad week or a 1-for-15 stretch and still have a good season, still be an All-Star, still win the MVP. Do that in the postseason, and your team could be going home. I think the Yankees will. Jason Giambi's wrist injury will keep him from playing first base, meaning Gary Sheffield gets that assignment after playing about a week there in September. Giambi's wrist could affect his hitting, and Sheffield's defense will be a liability.

The Yankees are on the verge of becoming the Giants, a team of aging stars. GM Brian Cashman won't let that happen, of course, but it could catch up to the Yankees in the postseason. From Randy Johnson's back to Mike Mussina's groin to Mariano Rivera's forearm/elbow to the wrists on Giambi, Sheffield and Hideki Matsui, there are any number of potential injury time bombs.

If the Twins' rotation lines up right -- and I think it will -- the Rangers' Michael Young will have not only won the All-Star Game for the American League, but he'll have put Game 1 of the World Series at the Metrodome on Oct. 21.

Twins in seven.

NLCS
Padres vs. Mets
The Shea Stadium fans will not cheer Mike Piazza as loudly this time around. And he certainly won't get a curtain call after a home run, unless it's a solo shot with two outs that cuts a Mets lead to 10-2 in the top of the ninth in Game 7.

Today's news about Orlando Hernandez's potential calf injury is a bigger blow than Pedro Martinez's because the Mets were already preparing themselves for a postseason without Pedro. El Duque was the primary reason, Exhibit A of Plan B. If Hernandez cannot pitch in Game 1 of the NLDS tomorrow, that puts Steve Trachsel in Game 1 -- Tom Glavine had already pitched his bullpen session and cannot take the spot -- and puts John Maine (unless he gets Game 1) as the Game 3 starter in Dodger Stadium. And what the heck is a 44-year-old Hernandez doing running sprints the day before he's to pitch in the postseason? He's a veteran; he should just be left to pitch.

When I sat down earlier this afternoon to run through my thoughts for the postseason, I was all set to tab the Mets for their third world championship. Yes, it's a bit of a homer call, a bit of a heart pick, but the Mets have the pieces and have had the good fortune -- and talent, ability and depth -- to get through the season with the best record in baseball (tied with the Yankees). Only the 1998 Yanks have won the World Series after compiling the best record in baseball during the regular season. A Subway Series would guarantee that one of the teams with this year's best record would become just the second one to do so. With Hernandez's injury muddling things, I'm going to have to amend my thoughts. I believe the Mets can overcome the loss of one starter, but I'm not sure about two.

I hope I'm wrong.

Padres in six.

World Series
Padres vs. Twins
The idiocy of awarding Games 1, 2, 6 and 7 of the World Series to the representative from the league that wins the All-Star Game is, as I've said, insane. It's no different from awarding home-field advantage to the team with the best spring-training record, because both are exhibition games largely decided by players who will not benefit from that which they helped to win. None of the American League's seven hits, three runs or three RBIs in the Midsummer Clunker came from a player in the postseason. At least Trevor Hoffman, who took the loss for the National League, may get to see what his ineffectiveness has wrought.

The Twins would've had home-field advantage anyway -- the American League team had it in even-numbered years under the old alternating system -- but their home crowds at the Metrodome surpass all but a few in baseball, and probably match up evenly with the likes of Boston and the two New York stadiums. In a Twins-Padres series, I see the Minnesota pitching edging out that of San Diego -- not a bad staff in itself -- and doing more to neutralize the opposing offense. If the Mets manage to find their way to the Series, I give them as good a chance as any team to win it. Without them representing the National League, I think the AL retains the crown ... for this year.

Twins in six.

Division Series predictions

What a start to the postseason. Oakland-Minnesota starts off with a pair of Cy Young Award winners in left-handers Barry Zito and Johan Santana. That game starts in about 10 minutes, so I'm going to do my best to run through my postseason thoughts before turning on the game.

A's vs. Twins
No one wanted to face the Twins in the shorter best-of-five series when they knew they'd have to face Santana and Francisco Liriano in three of the five games. Now, Minnesota is without the phenom Liriano, but because it edged out Detroit for the American League Central title, it gets homefield advantage against Oakland. The Twins went 5-1 against the A's at the Metrodome this year, and Santana was 12-0 at home. He gets the Game 1 start, and could either take a potential Game 4 on the road on short rest, or be held for a winner-take-all Game 5 back at the dome. Add in the fact that the Twins had the third-best team ERA in baseball and the best bullpen ERA (not to mention the fewest losses by relievers), and that the A's had one of the worst offenses in baseball, and Oakland's dark Division Series history does not look like it will get any brighter.

Twins in three.

Tigers vs. Yankees
Many of the Yankee fans I know are thrilled that they don't have to face the Twins -- and Santana -- in the first round. Detroit, which seemed to be on a tear heading into August and was expected to coast to a division title, faltered down the stretch, with losing records in both August and September. No too many teams reach the postseason with a 25-32 record in the final two months.

But the Tigers made it, becoming the first AL Central team to win a wild card, but now they have to turn their rotation upside-down to face the Yankees. Veteran and Opening Day starter Kenny Rogers gets the start in Game 3, with likely AL Rookie of the Year Justin Verlander taking Game 2. That leaves Nate Robertson for Game 1, where he'll match up with Yankees 19-game winner Chien-Ming Wang. Verlander gets Mike Mussina, and Rogers may be the healthy left-hander in an ancient pairing with Randy Johnson in the third game -- if the Big Unit is able to pitch despite his back problems. I think he will, but he won't be effective. Rogers leads the Tigers to a Game 3 win at home. Unfortunately, they'll have lost the first two and will fall in the next one.

Yankees in four.

Cardinals vs. Padres
Each league's Central Division nearly saw a monumental collapse, but the Cardinals managed to hold off the Astros despite losing seven in a row while Houston won seven straight in late September. In the end, the Braves got what they wanted, eliminating the Astros, who had taken them out of the previous two postseasons. So Atlanta didn't make it to the playoffs for the first time since 1990, but they still managed to end someone's season -- which they hadn't done since 2001. Yes, despite reaching the postseason in an unprecedented 14 straight seasons (1994 strike year not included), Atlanta hadn't advanced in their last four before the Mets ended the Braves' dynastic run this year.

Sorry, didn't mean to delve so deep into Atlanta's woes, as enjoyable as it is. Last year, the Cards swept the Pads in the first round, with NL Cy Young winner Chris Carpenter getting things rolling in Game 1 despite the best efforts of the St. Louis bullpen, which nearly blew an 8-0 lead. Today's Game 1 provides a rematch, with Carpenter again facing off against Jake Peavy, who revealed after last year's opener that he had sustained cracked ribs in the Padres' NL West-clinching celebration. I'm sure this year's party was a bit more subdued. But in addition to Peavy, San Diego's rotation has the stellar Chris Young and seasoned postseason veterans David Wells and Woody Williams. St. Louis has to go with Jeff Weaver, Jeff Suppan and Jason Marquis after Carpenter, in addition to a closer-by-committee after Jason Isringhausen had season-ending hip surgery. The Padres get revenge.

Padres in four.

Dodgers vs. Mets
Everyone wants to eliminate the Mets from the postseason because they don't have Pedro Martinez. While it's true that Martinez helped them jump out to an early lead by going 5-0 in April, the Mets won only six of his final 18 starts the rest of the way. They built upon their lead and coasted to the division crown essentially without their ace.

But they do have the most formidable lineup in the National League, one of the deepest benches in baseball, and a superb pitching staff -- particularly the bullpen -- even without Martinez.

The Dodgers, meanwhile, outpaced only the Pirates in the National League in home runs this season and went just 7-30 against this year's postseason field. They played the Mets close, winning three of the seven games between the teams and outscoring them by a slim 32-29 margin. However, two of those three wins were by rookies Hong-Chi Kuo and Eric Stults in a September series that meant much more to the Dodgers than it did the Mets.

Orlando Hernandez gets Game 1 for the Mets, who should have a pitching edge even in the rotation, considering Kuo's inexperience, Greg Maddux's mediocre postseason history (and the Mets' ability to score off him this season) and Brad Penny's back issues.

Mets in four.

Time to get these up before the games start. The rest of the postseason predictions to come shortly.

Reggie strikes out with A's one last time

I had no idea that Reggie Jackson attempted to by the Oakland Athletics. It's a shame it didn't happen — is there a better way to promote baseball than to have its first black majority owner be a Hall of Famer returning to own a team he once played for?

It's not that Reggie was outbid for the franchise that retired his number last year; he wasn't given a fair shot at making an offer. In May, the commissioner's office told Jackson to sit tight and he'd be given a chance to make a bid. They didn't give him that chance until December, at which time the current owners of the Athletics had already reached a deal with Lewis Wolff, the Los Angeles real estate developer who will become the team's new owner. Wolff is currently the vice president for venue development for the team. That is, he's been trying to figure out where to get the A's a new stadium, and apparently he's still going to do that in the Bay Area.

But what really makes this whole deal stink is that Wolff is not just an acquaintance of "commissioner" Bud Selig, he's his freakin' fraternity brother. Do you think Wolff, in his efforts to find a place to build a new stadium for the A's, will look for anything but a publicly financed venue? Would Bud accept anything less?

The thing is, Bud's done this before. Remember contraction? One team involved, the Montreal Expos, was eventually "sold" to the other 29 owners and moved to Washington, D.C., two years later than it could have been because Bud wanted to make sure he gave Orioles owner Peter Angelos enough of a sweetheart deal.

The other team was the Minnesota Twins, a small-market club that, in the three seasons since the C-word was first uttered, have finished ... um, wait, let me look it up here ... Ah, yes: First, first and first, with records of 94-67, 90-72 and 92-70 from 2002-2004. Why the Twins? Perhaps because the owner, Carl Pohlad, is a dear, close friend of Bud (also mentioned in the Nightengale column in the previous link) and would have stood to receive a nice "contraction package," no doubt worth more than the team might bring were it put up for sale.

It's a shame the way things go down sometimes.

Postseason thoughts, Day 5

Saturday's games:
Astros 8, Braves 5
Yankees 6, Twins 5, 11 innings
Dodgers 4, Cardinals 0

Yesterday's games:
Braves 6, Astros 5
Cardinals 6, Dodgers 2

Yankees win series, 3-1
There wasn't much doubt how this one would turn out, especially after the Twins blew Game 2. Even when the Yankees aren't as good as they're perceived to be, or they've been in past seasons, they somehow seem to get the job done. Now they head into the Red Sox Rematch -- er, ALCS -- with the added drama of "Do It For Mo," Mariano Rivera, who'll be coming back from Panama, where his wife's cousin and the cousin's son died when they were electrocuted while cleaning Rivera's pool. There's always something with the Yankees. The Red Sox have a better chance of pulling it off this year -- it could be their best chance to win the Series since 1986 -- but they've got one particular stat to knock off first: The Yankees have never lost in the ALCS. They're 10-0, including 6-0 since 1996. New York's only postseason losses since returning there in 1995 were in the Division Series (to the Mariners in '95, the Indians in '97 and the Angels in '02) or the World Series (the Diamondbacks in '01 and the Marlins last year). Unless the Yankees beat Curt Schilling once, Pedro Martinez twice or a combination of that, along with taking out Tim Wakefield, this one's going seven games. Schilling could very well win three games this series, and if he does, that'll do it, because the third start, naturally, would be Game 7. And if he doesn't start it, he'll be available out of the bullpen, that's for sure. But as I said in my postseason preview, I can't go against the Yankees here until it happens. I'm rooting for it with my heart, but I'm thinking that it'll be Yanks in seven. We'll see.

Cardinals win series, 3-1
Four games: pegged it. At least Lima Time is back in effect, and it helped the Dodgers end their eight-game postseason losing streak. The Dodgers' pitching wasn't considered all that spectacular by many (a view I held too), so the St. Louis lineup will have to somehow put up the same output against Houston or Atlanta if it wants to move on to the World Series for the first time since 1987. Those teams can hit, and the Cardinals may benefit from the potential of playing four of the seven games at home, but they'll have to keep either the Astros or the Braves off the board at some point to notch a win or two. Depsite the 4-0 Dodgers win in Game 3, the Cardinals still averaged 5.5 runs per game in the series, allowing 3 per game to L.A., which only scored more than three runs in its shutout victory, when, it turned out, one would have been enough. The point is, there will probably be one or two games against either the Astros or Braves in which eight runs is not enough to win.

Astros-Braves series tied, 2-2
I said the Astros would sweep, and instead, it's the only series that comes down to a decisive Game 5. Clearly, I never thought it would be coming back to Atlanta, and my sweep pick was more that I thought the Braves were the most sweep-able team of the eight. Not so much. What Houston has going for it is Roy Oswalt. He's Ace 1A on this team, and he can clearly lead the Astros to their first postseason series victory in the team's 42-year history. But he'll have to go seven or eight innings to do it, which means Houston will need a 3- or 4-run lead to keep him from getting pinch-hit for in the sixth or seventh. So more than just the way he pitches will determine how far he goes in this game. Phil Garner's getting a little heat for the way he's managed this series, and he's a bit lucky to have Oswalt going here because he couldn't use an ill Clemens to pitch the wild-card clincher on the last day of the season, so his division series rotation was set for him. The Astros should've wrapped this one up at home yesterday, and in going with Clemens on three days' rest, why lift him after five? (Ron Gardenhire's getting the same heat for lifting Johan Santana after only five innings, and he deserves it more. Why go with your ace on three days' rest in Game 4? Well, when you're down 2-1 facing elimination, it's logical. But you have to get at least six, if not seven from him.) Anyway, in Game 2, Oswalt went 6 1/3, allowing a run on eight hits and a walk, striking out four. Brad Lidge was asked to go 2 2/3 for the save, and he didn't get it, and Atlanta won on Rafael Furcal's game-winning DWI -- er, game-winning RBI -- a two-run home run in the 11th. Back in May, Houston took two out of three in Atlanta, losing the middle game (started by Oswalt) 5-4 in the 10th on an Andruw Jones home run. Essentially, that's what the Astros would be doing tonight, taking a three-game series in Atlanta after losing the second game. My pick for tonight: 7-2 Astros.

Postseason thoughts, Day 4

Yesterday's games:
Red Sox 8, Angels 6, 10 innings
Yankees 8, Twins 3

Red Sox win series, 3-0
Done and done. Good job. The Sox rolled over the Angels, and it appeared to energize John Kerry, who rolled over George Bush in the debate. Yet I digress. While listening to the Sox game on the radio as I drove home from work, Buck Martinez mentioned, twice, that Bronson Arroyo struck out 11 consecutive Mariners earlier in the season. It's a little inaccurate, which I think Martinez had right one of the times. He had 11 straight outs by strikeout, but there was a walk that made it 11 strikeouts over 12 batters. I figured I would've remembered if someone had broken Tom Seaver's record of striking out 10 consecutive batters. What a dramatic way to go on a three day rest. It's just what the Sox need. They shouldn't have to worry about losing any momentum or rhythm, because if they play the Yankees, as they most likely will, they'll be jazzed. And rested. And have Curt Schilling going in Games 1, 4, and potentially 7. If they need that many.

Yankees lead series 2-1
Ninth inning, Yankees leading 8-1. No outs. Corey Koskie is hit by the pitch. Then Lew Ford is plunked. And yet -- the Twins fans are booing Felix Heredia?? Um, hello: You're down seven runs in the ninth. A loss means you're down 2-1 in a best-of-five series. You need runs to win. You need baserunners to get that win. HBPs are GOOD. FOR. YOU. This is the problem with baseball today. It's not the Twins fans' fault; it's not just them. MLB as an organization has ingrained the thought in casual fans' heads that throwing inside to gain an advantage as a pitcher is not part of the game if you can't do it without hitting a batter. The game has become so soft because umpires are too quick to warn benches and the commissioner's office is wrong to issue directives insisting that they do so. Of course, Bud Selig isn't going to do anything to hurt The Great Bonds and his supplement-fueled, body-armored climb through the record book. On those two hit-by-pitches, the Metrodome should've been rocking like it was when Dan Gladden slid home with the winning run in '91. Johan Santana might be able to bring the series back to New York, but it's going to be a tough task for Minnesota to advance. They missed their golden opportunity in blowing Wednesday's game.

I'm off on vacation until Monday, so I'll be missing some of the weekend's action, as will this blog. So the two of you can discuss amongst yourselves until I return.

Postseason thoughts, Day 2

Yesterday's games:
Astros 9, Braves 3
Yankees 7, Twins 6, 12 innings
Red Sox 8, Angels 3

Astros lead series 1-0
Early in the season, when Roger Clemens was something like 9-0, I didn't want to think he was still that dominant. I figured a lot of it had to do with changing leagues and facing lineups who had never seen him and his impressive splitter. As the Astros faded, he didn't get the same press, and I look up his numbers in September, and he's 18-4. OK, that's good. He may have struggled yesterday, but he got out of those jams. He may be a bit of an ass, but he's from Texas. A lot of people are. At least he's a little more likable, and more subdued, than Barry Bonds. I can enjoy watching Clemens set milestones. But the Braves are in trouble. They've never drawn well, so they gave fans who purchased tickets to yesterday's game free tickets to today's game, just to fill seats. Yeah, great fans they have in Atlanta. But Carlos Beltran showed why he'll be the most coveted free agent this winter. Since the all-star break, when the Astros were just 44-44 and struggling, he hit only .257, with 17 home runs and 41 RBI. But he improved his strikeout-to-walk ratio ever so slightly (51 Ks to 45 walks pre-break, 50-47 afterwards) and upped his on-base percentage 5 points to .370. The biggest difference, however, was his aggressiveness on the bases: 27 post-break steals to 15 before the midsummer classic. And all three of his caught stealings came in the first half. But it's Clemens I keep coming back to, and if Roy Oswalt mimics Rocket's output, hometown boy Brandon Backe will have a chance for another big -- and historic -- win in Game 3 in Houston.

Twins-Yankees series tied 1-1
As much as the Yankees and their fans would have talked calmly and acted cooly if they had gone down 0-2 -- "We've just got to take it one game at a time"; "We've been here before"; etc. -- this team would have been in trouble going to Minnesota in such a hole. Sure, it was a big win for the Twins too, which is why Ron Gardenhire had his closer out there to finish off the game in his third inning of work. It's just that I don't get why he was out there in the 10th to begin with. Gardenhire said he left Nathan in for his third inning after the Twins had taken a 6-5 lead on Torii Hunter's home run off Tanyon Sturtze because he "didn't like our options" left in the bullpen. When you're on the road, you know you're going to have to protect a lead with the home team getting one last at-bat, so why was Nathan in there in a tie game to begin with? When the Yankees rallied, he had to bring someone in after Nathan, so why couldn't J.C. Romero have started the 10th? If he got into trouble, then Gardenhire could've brought Nathan in to get out of a jam. The Yankees were lucky to come away with this one. Mariano Rivera faltered again, and Sturtze, who was one of the relievers the team was talking up as having finished the season strong, would have been the losing pitcher. Now the question is: How will Kevin Brown pitch? He's obviously not Joe Torre's first choice, or the decision would have been announced earlier than yesterday. This may seem like an obvious expectation, but my feeling is Brown will either get shelled and not make it through the third, or he'll be brilliant and scatter four hits over seven.

Red Sox lead series 2-0
It's over. Boston isn't the Oakland A's, the Red Sox are not going to blow a 2-0 lead. There's a very slim chance this series will even get back to California. It might not make it to Saturday. Pedro sure sounds like a different pitcher now, far from the "the Yankees are my daddy" comments two weeks ago. "I was the No. 1 today, and that's all that matters," said Martinez, 0-4 with a 7.72 ERA to finish the season. "I don't care what the experts have to say, they were talking trash. Every time they give me the ball, I'm special." The Red Sox may have celebrated their postseason-clinching victory in Tampa Bay (while the Yankees like to talk about how they don't make a big deal out of postseason appearances because that's expected and their goal is to win the World Series), but Boston is playing like a calm, confident, focused team determined to be one of the last two playing this season. Bronson Arroyo might not scare many as the opposing pitcher in an elimination game, but are Angels fans really confident with Kelvim Escobar as their savior? In Boston, which might be the biggest home-field advantage this side of the Metrodome? I'm not so sure about that one.

Postseason thoughts, Day 1

Yesterday's games:
Cardinals 8, Dodgers 3
Red Sox 9, Angels 3
Twins 2, Yankees 0

Cardinals lead series 1-0
Hooray for Larry Walker. Good for him. Sixteen years in the majors, six in Montreal, nine-plus in Colorado, one playoff appearance with the Rockies in 1995. He he .214 with just three hits, one homer and three RBI. In his first game back, he slams two home runs. I listened to the game a little on the radio, called by the Mets' own Gary Cohen and Arizona outfielder Luis Gonzalez (it seemed like every inning there was a former Diamondback on the field -- Steve Finley, Elmer Dessens, Tony Womack), while I was on the road. And leading up to the game, it seemed everyone had the same feeling I did: is there one pitcher on either staff (Eric Gagne aside) who scares you? Not really. Walker's performance got me thinking about the Expos that got away, mostly because Montreal has had a great farm system and player development run the last 15-20 years, but the team can never keep its own talent because of financial constraints. Walker may have been the biggest: one of Canada's own, he didn't want to leave, but Montreal couldn't keep him. We've also got Vladmir Guerrero and Bartolo Colon (not brought up and developed by the Expos, but unable to stay because of financial reasons) in Anaheim (along with Andres Galarraga, who's not on the postseason roster, and backup outfielder Curtis Pride), Orlando Cabrera and Pedro Martinez in Boston and Javier Vazquez in New York. So with former Expos on four of the eight playoff teams, we've got a shot at seeing one of them soaking in champagne in three weeks.

Red Sox lead series 1-0
I'm not going to get ahead of myself here (because it's only a 4-1 Astros lead in the third), but could you imagine a World Series Game 1 in Boston with Curt Schilling facing Roger Clemens? Fox executives would be all tingly inside. The Red Sox seemed determined yesterday, and depending on which Pedro we see tonight, this one could end a lot faster and end up more wide-open than anyone expected.

Twins lead series 1-0
I think even the biggest Yankee fans expected this one. Johan Santana is pitching like God, but with a better slider. I'm not sure, but I think I saw Rudy Giulliani on ESPN this morning -- taking a break from his tireless campaigning for President Bush -- trying to convince everyone that, despite appearances, the Yankees actually won this debat- er, this game. But all this means is that the Twins didn't let last week's sweep in the Big Apple affect them. They may need to watch out: In 2001, Tony Womack's father passed away, and Fox loved that storyline. It helped that he had some big hits in that World Series for Arizona. I can't tell you how many times I heard someone at the network explain last night how Jacques Jones took the redeye back from California, where his father died over the weekend, and will return there after tonight's game for the funeral tomorrow before meeting the team back in Minnesota for Game 3. Jones homered last night.

It's the top of the fourth in Atlanta right now, and the Braves have left seven men on in three innings. Clemens has gotten into two bases-loaded jams and wiggled out of both, allowing the one run in the first. If they can't get those guys in, they're done.