The six covers of SI's 2013 baseball preview issue

It's that time of year. Sports Illustrated released its baseball preview cover yesterday.

Actually, that should be covers. For the first time in the 59 years of SI baseball preview issues, the magazine has printed true regional covers, six in all, with a main image customized for four different regions of the country: Northeast, Mid-Atlanic, South, Midwest (both Rust Belt and Plains) and West. My comprehensive look at the history of the baseball preview covers has been updated to include this year, but in this post I'm going to take a closer look at each of the six produced for the 2013 season, in the order of success I think they'll have.

But first, what these covers do for the totals. By featuring six starting pitchers, SI widened the gap between starters (31) and the next-most-frequent position, outfielders (19). Five of the six players made their baseball preview cover debuts, pushing the total number of players shown over the years to 70. We've also got a team represented for the first time, bringing us up to 25 of the current 30 clubs, leaving out only the Blue Jays, White Sox (a bit surprising), Astros, Marlins and Braves (also quite surprising).

So here are the six 2013 preview covers listed, in my mind, from least deserving to most, with "deserving" defined as ideally being the favorite (or at least a top-two favorite) to win its division.

James Shields, Royals

Shields is the only one of the six this year to fulfill one of two themes that have come up frequently: a player on a new team or a player on the defending champions. The right-hander, of course, was traded to Kansas City (most of the "new team" players were free agents, with the Phillies' Roy Halladay in 2010 another trade exception). Shields is the first Royal on the cover since David Cone in 1993 -- when he was new to Kansas City after signing a free-agent deal.
The Royals are certainly an interesting story this year. They added Shields, Wade Davis (in the same deal) and Ervin Santana to the rotation and they have a deep, young core with Salvador Perez, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Alex Gordon and Billy Butler (and you can add Alcides Escobar and Lorenzo Cain to the list if you'd like). And though expected to be dominated by the Tigers, the AL Central is otherwise a pretty balanced division, or at least one in which the Royals could make some noise. But I just don't see them as one of the top two contenders -- that'd be Detroit and Chicago -- like four of the other five covers feature.

CC Sabathia, Yankees

This is the issue that arrived in my mailbox today. Despite the cover (which I knew I'd receive), it was a pleasant surprise, because what used to be a regular Wednesday (Thursday at the latest) appearance in my mail has, over maybe the past year, become more of a Thursday-if-I'm-lucky/usually Friday/occasionally Saturday treat in the mail. So to have it the first day I could conceivably expect it was nice.

As for the cover subject, let's put this out there now: The Yankees are there because SI didn't want to omit the huge New York market. Robinson Cano would've been the better choice, but it certainly looks like these six cover subjects were chosen because they're all pitchers (clearly, I haven't flipped through the issue -- or read the headlines -- yet). But if you ask me, the Yankees don't fit the criteria of a top-two contender in the division, either. With their age and all the injuries (not mutually exclusive), I think they'll have an uphill battle to catch Toronto and Tampa Bay. The Yankees have holes at catcher, third/first base (wherever Kevin Youkilis doesn't play, and at least until -- though maybe after -- Mark Teixeira returns) and wherever Vernon Wells plays (but to be fair, SI had its preview in the bag before that deal went down).

But this choice makes Sabathia one of the rare two-time featured athletes. Only seven players have appeared on multiple covers (two each), with only three of those getting the featured spot to themselves. Willie Mays appeared in 1955 and '59, Steve Garvey in '75 and '82 (both solo), Mark McGwire in '88 and '98, Derek Jeter in 2001 and '05, Albert Pujols in '06 and '12 (both solo), Halladay in 2010 and '11 and Sabathia in 2009 and '13 (both solo, because I'm not counting the 2009 regional inset).

Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers

Kershaw is the first Dodger to grace the preview cover since Kevin Brown in 1999 -- the year he (wait for it) began a seven-year deal with Los Angeles. He was baseball's first $100 million man, signing for $105 million. The Dodgers are certainly one of the big storylines of the upcoming season, and it wouldn't have surprised me to see them featured nationally, had SI gone that route. But they still have to take on the defending World Series champions -- who didn't get a regional cover, despite a worthy hurler in Matt Cain, who I probably would've gone with over Shields. L.A. is a strong contender, easily a top-two pick in the NL West, but among these cover candidates, I think it has the fourth-best chance of winning the division.

David Price, Rays

With this image, Tampa Bay became the 25th active club to have a player featured on a preview cover. Not even the 2008 collection of '05 draft picks included a (Devil) Ray. (That's because Tampa Bay selected Wade Townsend eighth overall, passing on Red Sox coverboys Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz, not to mention Andrew McCutchen, Jay Bruce and Matt Garza, to name a few.)

Price is an apt choice as the defending AL Cy Young Award winner, the head of a strong, young pitching staff and a stud who's about to come into a big payday of his own. Plus, the Rays have a great chance to contend in (and win) an AL East that sees the Red Sox still trying to get their footing, the Orioles having made no major changes to the luckiest team in Major League history (an unprecedented -- and likely unrepeatable -- 29-9 in one-run games, not to mention 16-2 in extra innings) and the Yankees aging before our eyes. Sure, the Blue Jays are loaded after a busy offseason, but just ask the Marlins -- several of whom are now in Toronto -- how that worked out last year.

I should say, too, that the Blue Jays -- particularly R.A. Dickey -- would've been a great choice for a cover, too, but I wonder if he was omitted because SI is an American magazine and choosing a regional cover for Toronto might not fit into their marketing plans. The Jays have never been featured on a preview issue before (though the Expos have), but it certainly wasn't going to happen as a regional option.

Justin Verlander, Tigers

In reality, I'm considering this one a tie with the next one. In fact, I think Detroit has a better chance of winning its division, but I'm listing it here for a reason I'll get to in a moment. But as I said in discussing the Shields cover, it's going to take a mighty effort by the White Sox, Royals or Indians to overtake the Tigers in the AL Central, and with that lineup and this guy heading the rotation, it's unlikely.

Surprisingly for a franchise that's had Sparky Anderson, Kirk Gibson, Alan Trammell, Cecil Fielder and currently the best pitcher in the game, Verlander marks the Tigers' first appearance on a preview cover since Bill Freehan represented the defending champs on the 1969 cover.

Stephen Strasburg, Nationals

While I do think Detroit has a better chance of winning its division than Washington, I list this as the most deserving cover because the Nationals are SI's pick to win the World Series. In my mind, they'll have a tougher time fending off the Braves than the Tigers will holding back any of their division opponents, but if the magazine is picking the team to go all the way, then give it the cover, I say.

Strasburg represents D.C.'s second preview cover appearance, after Ryan Zimmerman on the 2008 fold-out issue. The previous Washington franchises -- both iterations of the Senators -- never got the honor. As I noted in the cover analysis post, my friends in Virginia aren't happy about the cover jinx touching their team, but one rationalized that it's only 1/6th of a jinx, on account of the regional covers.

We'll see about that. But one thing's sure: After what was seen as a surprising run to the NL East title last year, the Nationals won't be sneaking up on anyone this year. They're the favorites, and everyone will be gunning for them.

Radioactive Man at Kauffman Stadium

The Simpsons snuck another slight baseball reference into Sunday night's show that I just caught while watching it on DVR this afternoon. In the above image, tacked to the wall behind Comic Book Guy, is an issue of the Radioactive Man comic: Radioactive Man meets the Kansas City Royals.

It's at least the third baseball reference in the show this season. The biggest, of course, was the "MoneyBART" episode, in which Lisa takes over Bart's Little League team and makes her decisions based solely on statistics. Wezen-ball.com posted a great recap, focusing on Bart's game-winning home run.

The first baseball reference I caught this season came the week before, in "Loan-a-Lisa," when Grandpa decides to give the family members their inheritance money so he can see them spend it. When each one only receives $50, Grandpa explains that he lost the rest of it investing in a failed musical about the life of Eddie Gaedel.

I couldn't find a clip online, so I resorted to the rudimentary video recording of the TV. The tripod helps steady it, but the volume may be a bit loud. I overcompensated, not wanting to risk it being too low.

It's been seven years now since ESPN.com's Page 3 ranked the 100 greatest sports moments on The Simpsons. There have certainly been a few more in the years since, but there's probably no way of knowing how many other minor, throwaway references like these have made it to the show. I'm not sure I'll ever have the time to dedicate to reviewing each episode on DVD, but if I ever find myself laid up for a month, maybe I'll start.

Final evaluation of the 2004 Beltran blockbuster

It has been 5 1/2 years since the Royals traded Carlos Beltran to the Astros in a three-team deal also involving the Oakland A's. Houston, of course, only had Beltran through the 2004 postseason (that amazing eight homer, 14-RBI, .400+ postseason) before he signed with the Mets. The A's got Octavio Dotel in the deal and used him to save 22 of the 45 games he pitched the rest of the way in 2004, but only got 15 games from in 2005 before he had Tommy John surgery. The following offseason, he signed with the Yankees.

And for dealing Beltran, the Royals got right-hander Mike Wood and third baseman Mark Teahen from the A's and catcher John Buck from the Astros. Wood went 11-19 with the Royals through 2006, then signed with the Rangers. After pitching in 21 games for Texas in '07, he's spent the rest of his time on the Rangers' and Marlins' Triple-A clubs. Teahen averaged 14 homers, 70 RBIs and a .749 OPS in his five seasons with the Royals before they traded him last month to the White Sox for Chris Getz and Josh Fields.

Now K.C. has lost the last remaining player from that deal after non-tendering John Buck last night (in favor of new backstop Jason Kendall, who signed a two-year deal) and watching him agree to a deal with the Blue Jays.

So despite having their haul from the deal for the shortest time, the Astros probably made out the best, nearly reaching the World Series with Beltran in 2004 (and perhaps building the momentum or belief for their run to the Fall Classic in 2005). The A's finished second in 2004 and 2005, the only years they had Dotel, but won the AL West in 2006. And the Royals never won more than 75 games or finished higher than fourth in the AL Central with the players the got in return for Beltran.

2008 preview: AL Central

DETROIT TIGERS

In general

This is probably the most-improved team in baseball; certainly in the American League. Not only did the Tigers add an ace-quality pitcher -- and a left-handed one at that (Dontrelle Willis, of course) -- but they also got one of the game's top young third basemen in the deal (Miguel Cabrera, natch), all without giving up anyone who would've been a key part of the Opening Day lineup. Add in the acquisitions of a superb defensive shortstop (Edgar Renteria) and more-than-capable left fielder (Jacque Jones), and you've got upgrades at four spots, plus a lineup that will bat a former MVP eighth or ninth (Ivan Rodriguez). The trade that brought in D-Train and Miggy C. may have cemented the Twins' decision to trade Johan Santana. Detroit won 88 games last year, though it was still eight games behind Cleveland. These moves could very well make up those eight games, but if not, they could surely secure a Wild Card spot, thereby potentially blocking the Yankees from the playoffs. Go Get 'Em, Tigers!

What I look forward to seeing

Can the Tigers score 1,000 runs? That seems to be the over/under everyone is setting for this latest Murderers Row. (Are we still allowed to say that? The PC police haven't come out against that yet, have they?) What will Justin Verlander do for an encore after his 18-6, 3.66 season? In a record seemingly created just for him, the young right-hander is the only pitcher in baseball history to throw a no-hitter, start a World Series game, be a Rookie of the Year and an All-Star in his first two seasons, according to The AP. Is Curtis Granderson the closest thing this generation has to Willie Mays? I mean, he did become the first player since Willie Mays to post 20 homers, 20 doubles, 20 triples and 20 stolen bases in the same season in 2007. Does he reach 30-30? Can he set a post-Dead Ball Era record with 27 triples? Not since Kiki Cuyler's 26 in 1925 has anyone hit that many, and all the higher figures came no later than 1912.

CLEVELAND INDIANS

In general

Ninety-six wins won the division last year, though 89 would've gotten it done. But it may take that 96 in 2008. The Indians lost little (Kenny Lofton and Trot Nixon), though they gained little (Masahide Kobayashi, Jamey Carroll and Jorge Julio). Provided everyone stays healthy, we should see more of the same from the Tribe in '08. Having Travis Hafner and David Dellucci fully healthy will be a bonus, and a full season of Franklin Gutierrez will push the aging Casey Blake down to the ninth spot in the batting order. Grady Sizemore sets the table once again, but Asdrubal Cabrera will occupy the No. 2 spot from the outset.

On the mound, Cy Young winner C.C. Sabathia will be pitching for a contract -- as we'll hear each and every time the Indians appear on national TV. Along with the contract Santana signed and what it could mean for C.C. But what will Fausto Carmona bring for an encore from his breakout season? Another 19-8 campaign would be a lot to ask for, so can he put up 14-15 wins? That would be a good mark to hit. But after those two, you have Jake Westbrook, who underwhelmed in 2007 with a 6-9 record; Paul Byrd, who somehow won 15 games without ever throwing a pitch faster than 78 mph; and young lefty Aaron Laffey, who made his debut last August. And therein I think lies the difference between the Tigers and Indians. Cleveland doesn't have the offense to match Detroit, and the Tribe's bottom three in the rotation don't make up the difference -- nor do they match up well with the Tigers' bottom three, whatever the combination of Kenny Rogers, Jeremy Bonderman, Willis and Nate Robertson it turns out to be.

What I look forward to seeing

Sizemore. I drafted the guy on my fantasy team in '06 and enjoyed the emergence, and I like what he brings to the game. He's fun to watch. There's Sabathia, too. How does he fare with the expectations and pressure of coming off a Cy Young Award and playing through the final year of his contract? That's a pretty hefty duo with which to deal. I'll also keep an eye out for the return of Shin-Soo Choo, who may have an even bigger assignment in his future. I'm also curious to see just how tight this AL Central race is, and whether the runner-up in the division has enough to beat out the AL East runner-up for the Wild Card. Last year, the Yankees beat out the Tigers for the extra spot -- and then lost to the Indians in the Division Series. This year, the Yankees could be fighting the Indians for that last spot in the American League playoff bracket.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX

In general

Getting through the middle of the White Sox lineup is going to be a chore this year, especially in Chicago. From Jim Thome at No. 3 to Paul Konerko to Jermaine Dye to Nick Swisher, you've got four likely 30-home run hitters (Thome and Konerko passed that mark last year, Dye hit 28 and Swisher hit 22 while playing half his games in power-sapping Oakland) who will make any at-bat with runners on base a scoring opportunity. And there's balance between left-handed hitters and right, so playing the matchups won't usually be an option. In front of Thome, you've got the still-developing Jerry Owens and the veteran Orlando Cabrera, who hit .301 and OPSed (is that a verb yet?) a decent .742 for a No. 2 hitter. In the potent Angels lineup, he scored 101 runs and drove in 86, which he could somewhat easily repeat here. The bottom third will snuff some rallies, though, with A.J. Pierzynski followed by either the back-from-injury Joe Crede or the up-and-coming Josh Fields and the yet-to-be-determined Danny Richar (or Jose Uribe, who will vie for the second-base gig now that Cabrera has subplanted him at shortstop).

Mark Buehrle leads the staff, but other than his no-hitter last year, he turned in a pedestrian 10-9 campaign with a respectable 3.63 ERA and parlayed that into a $50-million contract. It remains to be seen just whether that was a bargain or overpayment. Javier Vazquez rebounded a bit with a 15-8, 3.74 season, including 213 strikeouts in 216 innings. But then they're looking at John Danks, Jose Contreras and Gavin Floyd, who combined to go 17-35 in 2007, with each pitcher's ERA above 5.00. I'll always have a soft spot for Floyd, the former top pick of the Phillies who spent the 2002 season at Class A Lakewood, but this is the season in which he has to emerge as a middle-of-the-rotation starter, or he could be cemented as a bust. And to think that he was once looked at as a No. 1 or 2 starter, at worst.

What I look forward to seeing

Continuing with a theme, I do want to see what Floyd can do. This is the turning point for his career. We'll know what kind of pitcher he's going to be before 2008 is out. I want to see how Swisher does in a new environment, one that plays more to his strengths -- gap power, for one -- and puts him closer to his Ohio roots (with at least nine trips to his home state each season). He's also one of the remaining "stars" of Moneyball, along with Joe Blanton, whom the A's drafted that year. One of the signature draftees, catcher Jeremy Brown, announced his retirement recently, citing family reasons as much as his progress -- or lack thereof, save for five games in the bigs -- through the Oakland organization.

MINNESOTA TWINS

In general

With Johan gone, anyone want to guess Minnesota's Opening Day starter? No, they're not pushing Francisco Lirano back from Tommy John surgery to take the assignment. Scott Baker anyone? Yeah, it's him. Considering what the Tigers did to improve and what the Indians didn't do (take any significant steps backward) -- and that Minnesota finished 17 games behind Cleveland and nine behind Detroit in 2007 -- the Twins had to trade Santana. They weren't going to win with him this year, so they might as well set themselves up for the future. Outfielder Carlos Gomez is the most Major League ready, though right-hander Phil Humber could be close. Minor league pitchers Kevin Mulvey and Delois Guerra are tougher to peg. But then, when the Twins dealt Pierzynski to the Giants and got minor leaguers Lirano, Joe Nathan and Boof Bonser in return, everyone thought they were crazy for dealing an All-Star catcher for three unknown bush leaguers.

So the Twins enter 2008 with Gomez in a starting role for the first time, leading off with his career OBP -- albeit truncated, still-getting-started career -- a measley .288. But he's got plenty of speed (with the Mets, it was said he was faster than Jose Reyes) and can make contact. He'll run down everything in center field -- though whether he'll make Twins fans forget Torii Hunter is a longshot, because he won't be the run-producer at the plate that Hunter was -- and has a good arm. Once he makes consistent contact and finds the gaps with regularity, he could be a threat at the top of the order. Beyond Gomez, it's a formidible stretch of Joe Mauer, Delmon Young, Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer, plus Jason Kubel another year removed from knee surgery. The bottom third, however, leaves us with Brendan Harris, Mike Lamb and Adam Everett, then a return to Gomez. So Mauer may have to be a bit of a table-setter at times this year.

Beyond Baker, the Twins are looking at Bonser, Liriano, Livan Hernandez and Kevin Slowey, though he may have to win the fifth spot. I can't say there's anyone in that rotation that scares me, though I was hoping the Mets would sign Hernandez through much of the offseason -- until they landed Santana. He'll eat up innings, but he gives up a lot of hits, so he needs a good defense behind him. I'm not sure the Twins have that anymore, not without Hunter.

What I'm looking forward to seeing

Liriano is the big question. Is he back? Or when will he be? Though it probably won't happen this year, can he make Twins fans forget -- at least a little -- about Santana? Morneau and Cuddyer are secured with long-term contracts now, so their relationship in the lineup will be interesting to watch. They, along with Mauer, could be anchoring the Twins' lineup for the next decade. And then there's Delmon Young, a former overall No. 1 pick who gets a fresh start in Minnesota. He played well last year, but he may never have put his minor league transgressions behind him had he stayed in Tampa Bay.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS

In general

The Royals have a good young trio in Mark Teahen (a product of the three-way trade that sent Carlos Beltran to the Astros), Billy Butler and Alex Gordon. New Jersey-bred David DeJesus leads things off, but he'll never replace Beltran's production. He's just not that kind of player. Mark Grudzielanek bats second and provides the veteran leadership, because the other veteran in the lineup is Jose Guillen, and while he'll bat cleanup (after his 15-day suspension to start the season), provide power and be an anchor in the lineup, I'm not sure what kind of clubhouse leader or example he'll be for the young core.

On the mound, Gil Meche was signed last year for $55 million, and everybody laughed. But his 3.67 ERA should have been good for a 13-9 record, not the 9-13 he turned in. After one season, at least, it doesn't look like such a bad deal. We'll see what the next four bring. He's followed by 2007 Rookie of the Year contender Brian Bannister (who may have been the difference between an NL East title and The Collapse for the Mets last year had they not traded him) and former prospect Zack Greinke, who has returned to the rotation and seems to be realizing his potential after dealing with some personal issues. Brett Tomko and Jorge De La Rosa top off the rotation, but their 12-24 combined record in '07 gives you an idea of what to expect this year.

What I'm looking forward to seeing

I'm always watching the Jersey guys (and the Notre Dame guys), so I'll watch DeJesus closely. He's solid, Brett Butler type of player, I think. Gordon had a rough rookie campaign, hitting just .247 with 15 homers and 60 RBIs after many expected him to make it a close AL ROY race with Daisuke Matsuzaka, if not run away with it. And Teahen needs to bounce back after following his 2006 season of 18 homers and 69 RBIs with just seven and 60 in '07. And of course there's Guillen, who has made things interesting in several of his previous stops and who opened his Royals tenure with a wig earlier this week.

Name that infield

A common baseball party trick over the years has been to come up with "all-star" teams based on specific criteria. The favorite is to create an "all-name team," choosing players at each position because they all have the same name or their names are related to the body, a holiday, heritage or various other themes.

There are a few new tricks now that the Royals have signed Doug Mientkiewicz and Mark Grudzielanek, at least when Mientkiewicz gets into the game at first base alongside Grudzielanek at second.

The combined 24 letters in their last names (12 in each) equal the letters in the last names of the entire starting infield for Mientkiewicz's former team, the Mets: Delgado (7), Matsui (6), Reyes (5) and Wright (6).

Based on projected starting lineups at this mid-December date -- a long way from spring training still, let alone Opening Day -- the right side of the infield in Kansas City features as many or more letters on the backs of the jerseys than 13 teams:

24
Mets
Orioles: Surhoff (7), Roberts (7), Tejada (6), Mora (4)
Yankees: Giambi (6), Cano (4), Jeter (5), Rodriguez (9)
Blue Jays: Overbay (7), Hudson (6), Adams (5), Koskie (6)
Athletics: Johnson (7), Ellis (5), Crosby (6), Chavez (6)
Giants: Niekro (6), Durham (6), Vizquel (7), Feliz (5)

23
White Sox: Konerko (7), Iguchi (6), Uribe (5), Crede (5)
Cardinals: Pujols (6), Cruz (4), Eckstein (8), Rolen (5)

22
Phillies: Howard (6), Utley (5), Rollins (7), Bell (4)
Cubs: Lee (3), Walker (6), Cedeno (6), Ramirez (7) [It's 21 if they go with Neifi Perez at short instead of Cedeno.]

21
Brewers: Fielder (7), Weeks (5), Hardy (5), Hall (4)
Dodgers: Choi (4), Kent (4), Furcal (6), Mueller (7)

20
Devil Rays: Lee (3), Cantu (5), Lugo (4), Gonzalez (8)

My take on the Carlos Beltran trade

I sat here on the couch last night watching the Astros-Pirates game on my MLB Extra Innings package when the play-by-play man made the announcement:

"The Astros have acquired Carlos Beltran in a two-team deal with the Kansas City Royals."

He said it with all the enthusiasm of announcing the daily lottery numbers. That surprised me. I would've expected more excitement at acquiring the A-Rod of the outfield.

You know, C-Belt.

(And seriously, what is it with the Astros and their "Killer Bs"? Biggio, Bagwell, Berkman, now Beltran? They used to have David Bell in that mix. They traded catching prospect John Buck in the deal, who very well could've become another one. If they were in the American League, they'd probably get Barry Bonds in another year.)

For about an hour, I fretted. I own Octavio Dotel in my primary fantasy league. I kicked myself at not acting on my urge a month ago to try to acquire setup man Brad Lidge, a player I covet not only for his ability, but because he was drafted out of Notre Dame as the Astros' first-round pick in 1998. I searched the rosters, considering possible trades, coming back to some deals I considered proposing weeks ago. Dotel in Kansas City wouldn't have been that bad. He wasn't getting too many save chances with the 37-34 Astros; or at least they were sporadic. I read an analysis earlier in the season that proved that better teams -- winning teams -- do not necessarily get more save opportunities than bad ones. But I just didn't feel as comfortable with Octavio Dotel, Royals closer as I did with Octavio Dotel, Astros closer.

Then, just after Houston GM Gerry Hunsicker left the booth, the announcer came back with the same low-key monotone:

"Octavio Dotel is now an Athletic. The Royals have turned around and traded him to Oakland for third-base prospect Mark Teahen and pitcher Mike Wood."

Whew. Now I feel better. Octavio Dotel, A's closer. That's better. Oakland has done well with closers during their successful run these past few years. There's a winning attitude around that clubhouse, and with a reliable pitcher at the back of the bullpen, they've thrived. Arthur Rhodes is not a reliable pitcher at the back of the bullpen, that's been their problem this year. The only problem I could foresee is that Oakland no longer has pitching coach Rick Peterson -- he's in New York now, helping the Mets to the best ERA in the majors.

But as for the Astros, they made out well in this deal. They gave up one young closer who has struggled just a bit this year, but certainly looks like he's on his way to being a reliable stopper. They traded a catching prospect who likely would've replaced Brad Ausmus next year, but he's not a sure thing. And they got a five-tool player, even if it's only for three months. In dealing Richard Hidalgo for David Weathers last week, Houston got itself another reliable setup man who can step into the seventh/eighth inning role vacated by Lidge now that he's coming on in the ninth.

What makes it such a great move for the Astros is perhaps more than any team outside Boston, they're built to win Now. You hear that a lot, but no where is it more true than Minute Maid Park. Bagwell and Biggio are not getting any younger, faster or healthier. Who knows if Robot Roger Clemens will return next season -- or if he'll have the same amazing success? Their pitching staff, outside Clemens and Weathers, is on the young side, and when Clemens does retire, Andy Pettitte can assume the experienced veteran leader role. Taylor Buchholz, acquired in the Billy Wagner trade, could very well become a No. 3/4 starter someday. But the bulk of the offense is aging, and replacing Bagwell, Biggio, Ausmus and Jeff Kent will be the more pressing needs in the coming seasons.

If Houston is going to win its first playoff series -- ever -- it will need to make a run with this team.