The six covers of SI's 2013 baseball preview issue

It's that time of year. Sports Illustrated released its baseball preview cover yesterday.

Actually, that should be covers. For the first time in the 59 years of SI baseball preview issues, the magazine has printed true regional covers, six in all, with a main image customized for four different regions of the country: Northeast, Mid-Atlanic, South, Midwest (both Rust Belt and Plains) and West. My comprehensive look at the history of the baseball preview covers has been updated to include this year, but in this post I'm going to take a closer look at each of the six produced for the 2013 season, in the order of success I think they'll have.

But first, what these covers do for the totals. By featuring six starting pitchers, SI widened the gap between starters (31) and the next-most-frequent position, outfielders (19). Five of the six players made their baseball preview cover debuts, pushing the total number of players shown over the years to 70. We've also got a team represented for the first time, bringing us up to 25 of the current 30 clubs, leaving out only the Blue Jays, White Sox (a bit surprising), Astros, Marlins and Braves (also quite surprising).

So here are the six 2013 preview covers listed, in my mind, from least deserving to most, with "deserving" defined as ideally being the favorite (or at least a top-two favorite) to win its division.

James Shields, Royals

Shields is the only one of the six this year to fulfill one of two themes that have come up frequently: a player on a new team or a player on the defending champions. The right-hander, of course, was traded to Kansas City (most of the "new team" players were free agents, with the Phillies' Roy Halladay in 2010 another trade exception). Shields is the first Royal on the cover since David Cone in 1993 -- when he was new to Kansas City after signing a free-agent deal.
The Royals are certainly an interesting story this year. They added Shields, Wade Davis (in the same deal) and Ervin Santana to the rotation and they have a deep, young core with Salvador Perez, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Alex Gordon and Billy Butler (and you can add Alcides Escobar and Lorenzo Cain to the list if you'd like). And though expected to be dominated by the Tigers, the AL Central is otherwise a pretty balanced division, or at least one in which the Royals could make some noise. But I just don't see them as one of the top two contenders -- that'd be Detroit and Chicago -- like four of the other five covers feature.

CC Sabathia, Yankees

This is the issue that arrived in my mailbox today. Despite the cover (which I knew I'd receive), it was a pleasant surprise, because what used to be a regular Wednesday (Thursday at the latest) appearance in my mail has, over maybe the past year, become more of a Thursday-if-I'm-lucky/usually Friday/occasionally Saturday treat in the mail. So to have it the first day I could conceivably expect it was nice.

As for the cover subject, let's put this out there now: The Yankees are there because SI didn't want to omit the huge New York market. Robinson Cano would've been the better choice, but it certainly looks like these six cover subjects were chosen because they're all pitchers (clearly, I haven't flipped through the issue -- or read the headlines -- yet). But if you ask me, the Yankees don't fit the criteria of a top-two contender in the division, either. With their age and all the injuries (not mutually exclusive), I think they'll have an uphill battle to catch Toronto and Tampa Bay. The Yankees have holes at catcher, third/first base (wherever Kevin Youkilis doesn't play, and at least until -- though maybe after -- Mark Teixeira returns) and wherever Vernon Wells plays (but to be fair, SI had its preview in the bag before that deal went down).

But this choice makes Sabathia one of the rare two-time featured athletes. Only seven players have appeared on multiple covers (two each), with only three of those getting the featured spot to themselves. Willie Mays appeared in 1955 and '59, Steve Garvey in '75 and '82 (both solo), Mark McGwire in '88 and '98, Derek Jeter in 2001 and '05, Albert Pujols in '06 and '12 (both solo), Halladay in 2010 and '11 and Sabathia in 2009 and '13 (both solo, because I'm not counting the 2009 regional inset).

Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers

Kershaw is the first Dodger to grace the preview cover since Kevin Brown in 1999 -- the year he (wait for it) began a seven-year deal with Los Angeles. He was baseball's first $100 million man, signing for $105 million. The Dodgers are certainly one of the big storylines of the upcoming season, and it wouldn't have surprised me to see them featured nationally, had SI gone that route. But they still have to take on the defending World Series champions -- who didn't get a regional cover, despite a worthy hurler in Matt Cain, who I probably would've gone with over Shields. L.A. is a strong contender, easily a top-two pick in the NL West, but among these cover candidates, I think it has the fourth-best chance of winning the division.

David Price, Rays

With this image, Tampa Bay became the 25th active club to have a player featured on a preview cover. Not even the 2008 collection of '05 draft picks included a (Devil) Ray. (That's because Tampa Bay selected Wade Townsend eighth overall, passing on Red Sox coverboys Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz, not to mention Andrew McCutchen, Jay Bruce and Matt Garza, to name a few.)

Price is an apt choice as the defending AL Cy Young Award winner, the head of a strong, young pitching staff and a stud who's about to come into a big payday of his own. Plus, the Rays have a great chance to contend in (and win) an AL East that sees the Red Sox still trying to get their footing, the Orioles having made no major changes to the luckiest team in Major League history (an unprecedented -- and likely unrepeatable -- 29-9 in one-run games, not to mention 16-2 in extra innings) and the Yankees aging before our eyes. Sure, the Blue Jays are loaded after a busy offseason, but just ask the Marlins -- several of whom are now in Toronto -- how that worked out last year.

I should say, too, that the Blue Jays -- particularly R.A. Dickey -- would've been a great choice for a cover, too, but I wonder if he was omitted because SI is an American magazine and choosing a regional cover for Toronto might not fit into their marketing plans. The Jays have never been featured on a preview issue before (though the Expos have), but it certainly wasn't going to happen as a regional option.

Justin Verlander, Tigers

In reality, I'm considering this one a tie with the next one. In fact, I think Detroit has a better chance of winning its division, but I'm listing it here for a reason I'll get to in a moment. But as I said in discussing the Shields cover, it's going to take a mighty effort by the White Sox, Royals or Indians to overtake the Tigers in the AL Central, and with that lineup and this guy heading the rotation, it's unlikely.

Surprisingly for a franchise that's had Sparky Anderson, Kirk Gibson, Alan Trammell, Cecil Fielder and currently the best pitcher in the game, Verlander marks the Tigers' first appearance on a preview cover since Bill Freehan represented the defending champs on the 1969 cover.

Stephen Strasburg, Nationals

While I do think Detroit has a better chance of winning its division than Washington, I list this as the most deserving cover because the Nationals are SI's pick to win the World Series. In my mind, they'll have a tougher time fending off the Braves than the Tigers will holding back any of their division opponents, but if the magazine is picking the team to go all the way, then give it the cover, I say.

Strasburg represents D.C.'s second preview cover appearance, after Ryan Zimmerman on the 2008 fold-out issue. The previous Washington franchises -- both iterations of the Senators -- never got the honor. As I noted in the cover analysis post, my friends in Virginia aren't happy about the cover jinx touching their team, but one rationalized that it's only 1/6th of a jinx, on account of the regional covers.

We'll see about that. But one thing's sure: After what was seen as a surprising run to the NL East title last year, the Nationals won't be sneaking up on anyone this year. They're the favorites, and everyone will be gunning for them.

So far, worth the Price

Back before the draft, a story in Sports Illustrated described agent Scott Boras telling the Nationals that two "50-year players" -- the kind of talents that only come around twice a century -- would be available to them in 2009 and '10 in the form of Stephen Strasburg, a 50-year pitcher, and Bryce Harper, a 50-year hitter.

And as good as Strasburg has been, perhaps he's not the first pitcher selected No. 1 overall to finally be worth the choice. In 2007, two years before Strasburg was drafted, the Rays took David Price out of Vanderbilt. A little more than a year later, he was closing out the Red Sox to send the Rays to the World Series. Now, three years and a month after being drafted, Price, at 24, is the youngest All-Star Game starting pitcher since a 23-year-old Dwight Gooden in 1988. (That's how good Gooden was back then -- at 23 in '88, he made his second career All-Star Game start, two years after his first.)

Looking back at the pitchers selected first overall, it's not a very notable bunch. Price has now tied Floyd Bannister, Mike Moore and Andy Benes for the record in All-Star selections and just one other hurler taken first, Tim Belcher, joins those three in pitching at least 10 seasons. And those four pitchers, plus the heralded Ben McDonald (who pitched nine seasons), are the only ones with a career WAR higher than 10. As of this All-Star break, Price is already at 4.2 in his career.

It feels premature to do so, but based on his success thus far -- an All-Star starting assignment, a key save in the ALCS and career numbers over 257 innings (what used to constitute a full season for a top starter) that would garner Cy Young consideration -- Price may be the best pitcher selected No. 1 overall in the history of the sport. Of course, the praise was similar for Gooden during his first few impressive seasons, but the early returns are promising. We'll just have to see how it plays out -- not just how Price ranks historically, but in a career that will unfold alongside that of Strasburg over the next decade or so, we can hope.

Pitchers selected No. 1 overall

Year	Pitcher	Throws	Team	WAR
2009	Stephen Strasburg	RHP	Nationals	1.8
2007	David Price	LHP	Rays	4.2
2006	Luke Hochevar	RHP	Royals	-1.1
2002	Bryan Bullington	RHP	Pirates	-0.2
1997	Matt Anderson	RHP	Tigers	-1.4
1996	Kris Benson	RHP	Pirates	11.1
1994	Paul Wilson	RHP	Mets	0.5
1991	Brien Taylor	LHP	Yankees	--
1989	Ben McDonald	RHP	Orioles	19.8
1988	Andy Benes	RHP	Padres	29.6
1983	Tim Belcher	RHP	Yankees	24.6
1981	Mike Moore	RHP	Mariners	24.9
1976	Floyd Bannister	LHP	Astros	24.1
1973	David Clyde	LHP	Rangers	0.4

Washington chooses its history

Pennants atop the scoreboard

Two weeks ago, I drove down to Washington to meet up with two college friends and see the Nationals play the Reds. We'd speculated a couple of weeks before and bought tickets hoping it would be Stephen Strasburg's debut. But unlike many Nats fans, we didn't bitch when the team announced his first start for June 8. We held our annual reunion at a ballpark and got drunk anyway. (And then Brad, the one of us who lives near D.C., went again on June 8 and fell in love.)

One thing that caught my eye on my second visit to Nationals Park was the celebration of baseball history, beginning with the statues of Walter Johnson, Frank Howard and Josh Gibson and continuing throught the concourse with banners depicting Hall of Famers from throughout the Major Leagues. And then, atop the arched "NATIONALS" sign atop the scoreboard, fly four flags, three of which display the years 1924, 1925 and 1933 signifying the original Senators' three American League pennants.

Nowhere did I see any mention of the Expos' 1981 split NL East title or any recognition of Tim Raines, Andre Dawson or Gary Carter (though I imagine Carter may have a Hall of Fame banner somewhere). Granted, even with just one World Series title among two franchises that left town, Washington has a richer baseball history than Montreal, if only marginally. And I do understand the point of promoting the city's baseball bloodlines, both in the American League and the Negro leagues. And as far as the statues and banners go, it's a nod to individual stars, not other teams. The pennants are a different matter.

This all struck me as slightly odd, because essentially the Nationals are celebrating the history of the Minnesota Twins (Senators 1901-60) and Texas Rangers (Senators 1961-71), but not the Expos, the team from which the Nationals were born. The Mets may have a rotunda celebrating the life of an American pioneer in Jackie Robinson, but they don't have any 1955 pennants celebrating the Dodgers' World Series victory.

But now [... segue ...] the Nationals are building a history of their own to honor, specifically every fifth day, when Strasburg takes the mound. In that celebrated first start of his, he set a Nationals record with 14 strikeouts -- dating back only to 2005, of course. The franchise record is 18, set by Bill Gullickson in 1980. As noted in this week's Sports Illustrated cover story, the scoreboard couldn't even keep up -- the strikeout display only counts to 12.

Baseball is going nuts for Strasmas every five days, so I can only imagine the giddiness felt inside the Nationals' front office. The team that didn't want to announce his first start until two weeks before has now let it be known that he'll pitch every fifth day until the All-Star break -- in essense, they're rearranging their rotation around the new kid. In doing so, the Nationals ensure (barring a rainout) that Strasburg will pitch twice on this current homestand, tonight and again on Wednesday, the final day of a six-game stretch back in D.C. Had he pitched every fifth game, he would have gone tomorrow and then again on Friday in Baltimore.

Oh, and about that -- by putting Strasburg on an every-fifth-day schedule, the Nationals ensure (barring, again, a rainout) that he will not pitch in Baltimore next weekend. That would've surely drawn a big crowd, perhaps a sellout, to Oriole Park, no doubt bringing a lot of Nationals fans up from the south -- and from the fanbase battleground between the two cities. Whether they meant it this way or not, that's a pretty big f-you to Orioles owner Peter Angelos, who did all he could to prevent Washington from getting a team and then made sure he got a sweetheart deal regarding television rights, relegating most Nationals games to MASN2.

After Wednesday's start, Strasburg will pitch in Atlanta -- those showdowns with Jason Heyward may stand out when writers cast their Rookie of the Year votes in September -- and then face the Mets at home during the Fourth of July weekend, probably Saturday the third. He would then make his final start of the first half on July 8 at home against the Padres.

Then it remains to be seen what they do with his schedule. They want to keep him at 160 total innings, and with 55 1/3 in the Minors and 12 1/3 so far in the Majors, he's already at 67 2/3. If he averages six innings in these next five starts before the break, that puts him at 97 2/3 -- leaving roughly just 10 more starts this season. Washington will no doubt be tempted to alter that plan if they get to his 10th start and find themselves fewer than five games out of a playoff spot, but it might play a part in setting up the second-half rotation. Do they give him nearly two weeks off and start him in the fifth game out of the break, on Tuesday, July 20? Do they go with a six-man rotation when (if) they get Jason Marquis back or Chien-Ming Wang is ready?

I do find myself drawn to Strasburg's starts. I was at the Trenton Thunder game on Sunday, but I DVR'd the Nationals-Indians game on TBS and watched Strasburg's 5 1/3 innings a day later. Tonight, the Mets and Yankees meet in the Bronx with the Amazin's on a seven-game winning streak (yes, against the lowly Orioles and Indians, but all on the road, which is definitely something for this team), but I may put that game on mute on the TV and watch Strasburg on MLB.TV -- with the White Sox TV feed so that I can hear Hawk Harrelson do his best to refrain from any praise of "the bad guy." I toyed with driving down to D.C. again today, but some car trouble and the current use of a rental and various other hassles had me decide against it. I hope to see him once this year, but it remains to be seen if the schedules -- the Nationals' and mine -- will allow it.

I'd like to experience just one of Strasburg's starts this year first-hand, whether in D.C. or elsewhere, because I was a bit too young to have seen Dwight Gooden in the mid-80s. First mentioned by Mets Police and echoed this week by Marty Noble, Gooden on a Friday night at Shea was an event (and "Gooden on a Friday night" should be the name of an essay or a play or something). I remember the buzz when Pedro Martinez would pitch a few years ago, and I have no doubt that the anticipation for Gooden's starts was much more elevated.

So far, Strasburg has nearly doubled the average daily attendance when he's pitched. His debut drew 40,315, nearly twice the 22,102 the Nationals are averaging -- and that's as of today, including that start of his. He also debuted on a Tuesday, which draws less on average to begin with, so he did bring in twice as many people as the Nats would otherwise get on a Tuesday night. On Sunday in Cleveland, 32,876 came out, just under twice the 16,604 the Indians had drawn. I just went onto the Nationals' site and put in for two tickets for tonight and found it only gave one option: $350 Lexus Presidents seats. Looks like another sellout.

I went back to look at Gooden's starts and compile the numbers from his first three seasons, 1984-86, which included his Rookie of the Year campaign ('84), his NL Cy Young season ('85) and the Mets' World Series season ('86), when they ran away with the NL East. Though Noble specifically cited Gooden's starts from mid-'84 through the first few months of '86, I averaged out his Friday night home starts for all three seasons: 38,385 over nine Friday night home games. Pretty damn good, and that doesn't include some high-drawing Saturday or Sunday games, or the 47,823 who came out on a Wednesday in September 1986 to watch him throw nine innings to clinch the division. Only twice in those nine Friday night games did the Mets draw fewer fans than their average for the season. One was June 1, 1984 -- 20,968 vs. the '84 average of 22,749 -- still early in the legend of Doctor K; the other was, surprisingly to me, July 4, 1986, when 28,557 came out in a year they averaged 34,168. I figured the holiday would bring more to the ballpark, but because it was a weekend, perhaps the throngs were barbecuing or at the beach. Or perhaps it was a day game.

Maybe at the end of the season, I'll go back and take a closer look at Doc's starts vs. Strasburg's, when we have more numbers to include. But if these first three dates are any indication, Saint Stephen is going to be a draw throughout the National League for the rest of the season.

Ready to open up the farm

The Minor League season is upon us, with all full-season circuits getting under way today. For the first time in several years, I'll be at one of those games. I'm heading down the Turnpike to Trenton, where the SeaWolves and Thunder will face off at Waterfront Park.

It could be a prospect-filled spring in the Northeast, with the South Atlantic, Eastern and International leagues not just filled with top-tier talent for those levels but stocked with the two biggest players to watch who didn't make their organizations' Major League rosters: Stephen Strasburg and Aroldis Chapman. They'll both be making their professional debuts on Sunday, when Strasburg's Harrisburg Senators are in Altoona, Pa., and Chapman's Louisville Bats are in Toledo, Ohio. That sets up each one to pitch at home for the first time next Friday, not a bad night to show off the organization's top talent down on the farm. I'm sure the Senators and Bats front offices are giddy over that good fortune. True, the first Friday night home game of the season would probably draw well, but both teams open their home schedules the night before, so the two prospects will provide an enticement for game No. 2. Plus, it lines them up to pitch five days later, when both teams finish homestands with morning getaway games. That'll be sure to tempt some folks to take a long lunch.

I'll be tracking the Senators' and Bats' schedules closely, hoping the dates line up so that I might catch Strasburg or Chapman pitching before they're called up to the Majors. The window for Strasburg seems to be tight -- everyone fully expects to see him with the Nationals sometime in June, and as Ben McGrath points out at the end of his Spring Training piece in The New Yorker, the schedule has Washington in Atlanta at the end of the month, and there's no telling what kind of physics experiments might develop from a Strasburg vs. Jason Heyward matchup. Harrisburg, Pa., is just about two-and-a-half hours from where I live, and I've driven further for games. That Wednesday morning outing by Strasburg is tempting, because it's the only guaranteed chance I may have. The Senators don't come to Trenton before June, and though their visit to Reading the following week is likely to have a Strasburg start included, all three games are scheduled for nights I work. Decision to come.

The Eastern League is stocked with top stars, including Strasburg's teammate and potential future closer in Washington, Drew Storen. The Reading Phillies have three of those 10, including Philadelphia's No. 1 name to know, Domonic Brown, though I have to think it's a longshot that he'd still be wearing Reading's powder blue when the R-Phils make their only trip to Trenton July 15-18. Of course, Austin Romine, the Yankees' No. 2 prospect and reigning Florida State League MVP, is likely to be catching for the Thunder all season because the only player listed ahead of him on Baseball America's list of Yankees farmhands is catcher Jesus Montero, a Thunder star last year.

Back to Chapman: The Bats have a four-game series at Scranton to close out April, but if Chapman pitches every fifth day and there aren't any rainouts (which will be a big key to all of this tentative pre-planning), he'll be the one starter who doesn't face the Yankees at PNC Field. The Bats are back in Eastern Pennsylvania from May 18-21 to play the Lehigh Valley IronPigs, so his starting dates will be worth watching.

The SWB Bombers boast two of the IL's top 10, Montero and right-hander Zach McAllister, plus several other names to know -- or known, as the case may be with Columbus Clippers catcher Carlos Santana (wanna bet the DJ at PNC plays "Oye Como Va" when he comes to bat during the Clips' visit from May 10-13?). There's also Chapman's teammate, 2008 first-round pick Yonder Alonso, and Rays No. 1 (and potential Carl Crawford replacement) Desmond Jennings. He's joined on the always-stocked Durham Bulls (they have to love their relationship with Tampa Bay) by right-hander Jeremy Hellickson, whom I saw pitch for Hudson Valley in 2006.

As for the third league to touch New Jersey, the Lakewood BlueClaws open their South Atlantic League campaign tonight in Asheville, N.C., and won't open at home until next Friday. If I'm not away that night, I'll probably make that drive, too. Prospects at the low-Class A level are longer shots to gauge, but it can't be a bad sign that Lakewood boasts three of the top 10 to watch. Also on that list: Seton Hall grad and Yankees prospect Sean Black with the Charleston RiverDogs (in Lakewood May 3-6), Mets prospect Wilmer Flores with the Savannah Sand Gnats (who follow the RiverDogs at FirstEnergy Park from May 7-10), fifth-overall pick by the Orioles Matt Hobgood with the Delmarva Shorebirds (in Lakewood for two five-game series July 8-12 and August 12-16) and two Astros prospects, outfielder J.D. Martinez and first-round pick shortstop Jiovanni Mier with the Lexington Legends (in town June 14-16).

Summer can't come soon enough, can it?