The six covers of SI's 2013 baseball preview issue

It's that time of year. Sports Illustrated released its baseball preview cover yesterday.

Actually, that should be covers. For the first time in the 59 years of SI baseball preview issues, the magazine has printed true regional covers, six in all, with a main image customized for four different regions of the country: Northeast, Mid-Atlanic, South, Midwest (both Rust Belt and Plains) and West. My comprehensive look at the history of the baseball preview covers has been updated to include this year, but in this post I'm going to take a closer look at each of the six produced for the 2013 season, in the order of success I think they'll have.

But first, what these covers do for the totals. By featuring six starting pitchers, SI widened the gap between starters (31) and the next-most-frequent position, outfielders (19). Five of the six players made their baseball preview cover debuts, pushing the total number of players shown over the years to 70. We've also got a team represented for the first time, bringing us up to 25 of the current 30 clubs, leaving out only the Blue Jays, White Sox (a bit surprising), Astros, Marlins and Braves (also quite surprising).

So here are the six 2013 preview covers listed, in my mind, from least deserving to most, with "deserving" defined as ideally being the favorite (or at least a top-two favorite) to win its division.

James Shields, Royals

Shields is the only one of the six this year to fulfill one of two themes that have come up frequently: a player on a new team or a player on the defending champions. The right-hander, of course, was traded to Kansas City (most of the "new team" players were free agents, with the Phillies' Roy Halladay in 2010 another trade exception). Shields is the first Royal on the cover since David Cone in 1993 -- when he was new to Kansas City after signing a free-agent deal.
The Royals are certainly an interesting story this year. They added Shields, Wade Davis (in the same deal) and Ervin Santana to the rotation and they have a deep, young core with Salvador Perez, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Alex Gordon and Billy Butler (and you can add Alcides Escobar and Lorenzo Cain to the list if you'd like). And though expected to be dominated by the Tigers, the AL Central is otherwise a pretty balanced division, or at least one in which the Royals could make some noise. But I just don't see them as one of the top two contenders -- that'd be Detroit and Chicago -- like four of the other five covers feature.

CC Sabathia, Yankees

This is the issue that arrived in my mailbox today. Despite the cover (which I knew I'd receive), it was a pleasant surprise, because what used to be a regular Wednesday (Thursday at the latest) appearance in my mail has, over maybe the past year, become more of a Thursday-if-I'm-lucky/usually Friday/occasionally Saturday treat in the mail. So to have it the first day I could conceivably expect it was nice.

As for the cover subject, let's put this out there now: The Yankees are there because SI didn't want to omit the huge New York market. Robinson Cano would've been the better choice, but it certainly looks like these six cover subjects were chosen because they're all pitchers (clearly, I haven't flipped through the issue -- or read the headlines -- yet). But if you ask me, the Yankees don't fit the criteria of a top-two contender in the division, either. With their age and all the injuries (not mutually exclusive), I think they'll have an uphill battle to catch Toronto and Tampa Bay. The Yankees have holes at catcher, third/first base (wherever Kevin Youkilis doesn't play, and at least until -- though maybe after -- Mark Teixeira returns) and wherever Vernon Wells plays (but to be fair, SI had its preview in the bag before that deal went down).

But this choice makes Sabathia one of the rare two-time featured athletes. Only seven players have appeared on multiple covers (two each), with only three of those getting the featured spot to themselves. Willie Mays appeared in 1955 and '59, Steve Garvey in '75 and '82 (both solo), Mark McGwire in '88 and '98, Derek Jeter in 2001 and '05, Albert Pujols in '06 and '12 (both solo), Halladay in 2010 and '11 and Sabathia in 2009 and '13 (both solo, because I'm not counting the 2009 regional inset).

Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers

Kershaw is the first Dodger to grace the preview cover since Kevin Brown in 1999 -- the year he (wait for it) began a seven-year deal with Los Angeles. He was baseball's first $100 million man, signing for $105 million. The Dodgers are certainly one of the big storylines of the upcoming season, and it wouldn't have surprised me to see them featured nationally, had SI gone that route. But they still have to take on the defending World Series champions -- who didn't get a regional cover, despite a worthy hurler in Matt Cain, who I probably would've gone with over Shields. L.A. is a strong contender, easily a top-two pick in the NL West, but among these cover candidates, I think it has the fourth-best chance of winning the division.

David Price, Rays

With this image, Tampa Bay became the 25th active club to have a player featured on a preview cover. Not even the 2008 collection of '05 draft picks included a (Devil) Ray. (That's because Tampa Bay selected Wade Townsend eighth overall, passing on Red Sox coverboys Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz, not to mention Andrew McCutchen, Jay Bruce and Matt Garza, to name a few.)

Price is an apt choice as the defending AL Cy Young Award winner, the head of a strong, young pitching staff and a stud who's about to come into a big payday of his own. Plus, the Rays have a great chance to contend in (and win) an AL East that sees the Red Sox still trying to get their footing, the Orioles having made no major changes to the luckiest team in Major League history (an unprecedented -- and likely unrepeatable -- 29-9 in one-run games, not to mention 16-2 in extra innings) and the Yankees aging before our eyes. Sure, the Blue Jays are loaded after a busy offseason, but just ask the Marlins -- several of whom are now in Toronto -- how that worked out last year.

I should say, too, that the Blue Jays -- particularly R.A. Dickey -- would've been a great choice for a cover, too, but I wonder if he was omitted because SI is an American magazine and choosing a regional cover for Toronto might not fit into their marketing plans. The Jays have never been featured on a preview issue before (though the Expos have), but it certainly wasn't going to happen as a regional option.

Justin Verlander, Tigers

In reality, I'm considering this one a tie with the next one. In fact, I think Detroit has a better chance of winning its division, but I'm listing it here for a reason I'll get to in a moment. But as I said in discussing the Shields cover, it's going to take a mighty effort by the White Sox, Royals or Indians to overtake the Tigers in the AL Central, and with that lineup and this guy heading the rotation, it's unlikely.

Surprisingly for a franchise that's had Sparky Anderson, Kirk Gibson, Alan Trammell, Cecil Fielder and currently the best pitcher in the game, Verlander marks the Tigers' first appearance on a preview cover since Bill Freehan represented the defending champs on the 1969 cover.

Stephen Strasburg, Nationals

While I do think Detroit has a better chance of winning its division than Washington, I list this as the most deserving cover because the Nationals are SI's pick to win the World Series. In my mind, they'll have a tougher time fending off the Braves than the Tigers will holding back any of their division opponents, but if the magazine is picking the team to go all the way, then give it the cover, I say.

Strasburg represents D.C.'s second preview cover appearance, after Ryan Zimmerman on the 2008 fold-out issue. The previous Washington franchises -- both iterations of the Senators -- never got the honor. As I noted in the cover analysis post, my friends in Virginia aren't happy about the cover jinx touching their team, but one rationalized that it's only 1/6th of a jinx, on account of the regional covers.

We'll see about that. But one thing's sure: After what was seen as a surprising run to the NL East title last year, the Nationals won't be sneaking up on anyone this year. They're the favorites, and everyone will be gunning for them.

Quick thoughts: 2010 AL Cy Young Award

They nailed it. Felix Hernandez excelled this season in just about all pitching categories except one, the increasingly better-understood (or at least weighted) wins, which is reliant on a bit more than just what the starting pitcher does. Is this the year that will define the line in the sand between the winningest pitcher in the league and the best? Zack Greinke last year may have laid the foundation, but this year could be the vote that establishes precedent going forward. Five years ago, Sabathia may have won simply because he won 21 games. Not so this year.

In his favor, Felix had the worst offense behind him since the designated hitter was implemented. He had the worst run support in the American League (and in all of baseball, for that matter) at just 3.75 runs per game. Delving further, check out the bottom of his 2010 game log: Run sport in games started, showing an even lower 3.07 runs per 27 outs (I'm not sure what ESPN uses for run support average; perhaps per start or game, as I worded it). In 19 of his 34 starts, he was given three runs or fewer, including zero in four of them. Price received 5.30 runs per 27 outs, just nine of three runs or fewer and seven games of eight or more runs (Felix had just one). Sabathia got 5.89 runs of support for every 27 outs, had eight games of three or fewer runs and 10 of eight or more. In other words, Felix pitched as many games with three or fewer runs behind him than Price and Sabathia combined.

Despite the scoring on his side, Felix went ahead and threw 249 2/3 innings, completing six games and pacing the AL in WAR (6.0), ERA (2.27), hits per 9 innings (6.993), innings, starts, batters faced (1,001), and a slew of six sabermetric categories: adjusted pitching runs, adjusted pitching wins, base-out runs saved, win probability added, situational wins saved and base-out runs saved (they're at the bottom of this leaders page). I'm sure there's a metric out there that could estimate Felix's record had he had the run support of Price or Sabathia, and I'd love to see what those numbers are.

I know there are those who want to knock Felix for the unbalanced schedule, because he made 14 starts against AL West foes Anaheim, Oakland and Texas. Well, for one thing, all of those teams were better than Seattle. But he also went 7-4 against the Yankees, Twins, Rangers and Red Sox -- three playoff teams and another formidable contender (he didn't face Tampa Bay). He also went 2-1 against the Reds and Padres, an NL division winner and a contender that went to the final day of the season before being eliminated. That's 9-5 against top competition.

Price went 5-3 against similar opponents (Atlanta, Boston, Minnesota, Texas and the Yankees) and Sabathia was 4-2 against Boston, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay and Texas. In fact, the pitcher among these three who benefited most from fattening up on weak competition was Sabathia -- 12-3 against sub-.500 teams, including 10 of his 21 victories against the Orioles (5-1), Royals (2-0) and Mariners (3-0).

I'm still OK with wins as a stat -- there's a bit of a traditionalist in me -- but they should only be a starting point, perhaps no more than the introduction to the book that is a pitcher's season. What would have really been interesting was if Felix couldn't get that last win in his final start of the season -- by the way, he beat Texas, 3-1, with eight innings of one-run ball -- and finished with a .500 record. I wonder if that would've had an impact on the voting.

Player	CG	SHO	W	L	W-L%	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	ERA	ERA+	BF	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
Hernandez	6	1	13	12	.520	249.2	194	80	63	70	232	2.27	174	1001	.212	.273	.312	.585	65
Price	2	1	19	6	.760	208.2	170	71	63	79	188	2.72	145	861	.221	.296	.340	.637	77
Sabathia	2	0	21	7	.750	237.2	209	92	84	74	197	3.18	134	970	.239	.301	.355	.656	75

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/18/2010.

So far, worth the Price

Back before the draft, a story in Sports Illustrated described agent Scott Boras telling the Nationals that two "50-year players" -- the kind of talents that only come around twice a century -- would be available to them in 2009 and '10 in the form of Stephen Strasburg, a 50-year pitcher, and Bryce Harper, a 50-year hitter.

And as good as Strasburg has been, perhaps he's not the first pitcher selected No. 1 overall to finally be worth the choice. In 2007, two years before Strasburg was drafted, the Rays took David Price out of Vanderbilt. A little more than a year later, he was closing out the Red Sox to send the Rays to the World Series. Now, three years and a month after being drafted, Price, at 24, is the youngest All-Star Game starting pitcher since a 23-year-old Dwight Gooden in 1988. (That's how good Gooden was back then -- at 23 in '88, he made his second career All-Star Game start, two years after his first.)

Looking back at the pitchers selected first overall, it's not a very notable bunch. Price has now tied Floyd Bannister, Mike Moore and Andy Benes for the record in All-Star selections and just one other hurler taken first, Tim Belcher, joins those three in pitching at least 10 seasons. And those four pitchers, plus the heralded Ben McDonald (who pitched nine seasons), are the only ones with a career WAR higher than 10. As of this All-Star break, Price is already at 4.2 in his career.

It feels premature to do so, but based on his success thus far -- an All-Star starting assignment, a key save in the ALCS and career numbers over 257 innings (what used to constitute a full season for a top starter) that would garner Cy Young consideration -- Price may be the best pitcher selected No. 1 overall in the history of the sport. Of course, the praise was similar for Gooden during his first few impressive seasons, but the early returns are promising. We'll just have to see how it plays out -- not just how Price ranks historically, but in a career that will unfold alongside that of Strasburg over the next decade or so, we can hope.

Pitchers selected No. 1 overall

Year	Pitcher	Throws	Team	WAR
2009	Stephen Strasburg	RHP	Nationals	1.8
2007	David Price	LHP	Rays	4.2
2006	Luke Hochevar	RHP	Royals	-1.1
2002	Bryan Bullington	RHP	Pirates	-0.2
1997	Matt Anderson	RHP	Tigers	-1.4
1996	Kris Benson	RHP	Pirates	11.1
1994	Paul Wilson	RHP	Mets	0.5
1991	Brien Taylor	LHP	Yankees	--
1989	Ben McDonald	RHP	Orioles	19.8
1988	Andy Benes	RHP	Padres	29.6
1983	Tim Belcher	RHP	Yankees	24.6
1981	Mike Moore	RHP	Mariners	24.9
1976	Floyd Bannister	LHP	Astros	24.1
1973	David Clyde	LHP	Rangers	0.4