The definitive SI baseball preview cover analysis

{NOTE: Originally posted on April 1, 2010, this analysis is now updated yearly to show the latest accurate numbers. I haven't come across a study like this, but it doesn't mean it's not out there. Though it would be a bit of a downer if I found out I did all this research for nothing. With only a few exceptions, all links lead to images of the covers.}

After I posted the 2010 Sports Illustrated baseball preview cover on Facebook (in addition to here), my friend Brad left this comment:

One of my first SI issues was the 1987 baseball preview issue, with Cory Snyder and the Indians on the cover. The Indians, of course, went 61-101 that year.

And that got my mind racing. How accurate has the magazine been in its choices for the annual baseball preview? We all know about the cover jinx, but does the jinx hold up through an entire season as well as it seems to on a more short-term basis, from week to week? It didn't take me too long to whip up a spreadsheet, scroll through SI's covers gallery to find each preview and plug in the numbers, with the help of Baseball-Reference.

So I may get a little obsessive at times, assigning myself mundane tasks that, in the end, result in little more than some neat -- and possibly very arbitrary -- numbers to peruse. But I don't care. Here are the results, showing how many teams, players and positions were featured, plus the teams' and players' results that season, from stats to All-Star nods to awards, plus a little more.

The totals and general figures
Through 2014, SI released 60 baseball season preview issues (not covers, as I'll explain shortly), featuring 25 of the 30 franchises that exist today. If you count the Montreal Expos and two instances of the Washington Senators separately, there are 33 different teams in that time. Twenty-five have been featured on the cover; neither Senators club made it, but the Twins and Rangers have. Both the Expos and Washington Nationals have had players on a cover.

In 2013, the magazine also introduced full regional covers for its baseball preview for the first time. From 2009-11, the main image on all covers was the same nationally, but there were regional insets, which I chose not to count in the player totals. Those players will be noted in the yearly breakdown below, however. As for the regional covers beginning with 2013, I've decided to count those collectively as one issue for the 60 noted at the start of the previous paragraph (to indicate the number of years the magazine has produced a baseball preview issue) but have credited each player with a solo appearance (hence Sabathia's two solo covers).

In 2014, the Yankees broke their tie with the Red Sox to retake the lead with eight covers -- though one of Boston's was the 1990 cover featuring a long-retired Ted Williams and the headline, "Was it a better game in Ted's day?" That was one of two covers to feature an inactive player, along with the 1984 one with Yankees manager Yogi Berra, and one of eight that didn't have an active player at all. There were six years from 1956-65 that showed no players: 1956, 1957, 1958, 1960, 1963 and 1965.

Here is the team-by-team tally:
Yankees 8
Red Sox 7
Dodgers 6
Cardinals 6
Phillies 5
Orioles 3
Giants 3
Reds 3
Tigers 3
Royals 3
Angels 3
Mariners 3
Indians 2
Twins 2
Mets 2
Pirates 2
Nationals 2
Brewers 1
D-backs 1
Rockies 1
Cubs 1
Rangers 1
Padres 1
A's 1
Expos 1
Rays 1

There have been 74 different active players to grace the cover before a season, including 16 Hall of Famers (though Williams and Berra are among those), 41 players who would have All-Star seasons the year they appeared on the cover, two who would take MVP honors (both in the NL), four Cy Young winners (with each league represented), two who would break significant records, three who would win 20 games and 11 who went on to lead their respective leagues in one of the triple crown categories: batting average, home runs, RBIs, wins, ERA and strikeouts. Those 11 players led the way in 13 categories overall, particularly boosted by the Cy Young-winning pitchers. Hitters have averaged .295 (158-for-535) with 23 home runs and 85 RBIs. Pitchers have averaged a 14-8 record, 176 strikeouts and a 3.19 ERA (68 earned runs in 193 innings).

Starting pitchers have appeared the most, 32 times each (no relievers have appeared), followed by 20 outfielders, 11 first basemen, six third basemen, five shortstops, five catchers, two managers, two second baseman and one owner. Eleven of the covers have featured multiple people, but only four times has it been multiple representatives for one team. Mays, Derek Jeter, Mark McGwire, Steve Garvey, Roy Halladay, Albert Pujols and CC Sabathia are the only players to appear more than once (twice each), with Garvey, Pujols and Sabathia the only ones to be featured solo on a cover. Fifteen players were featured the year they joined a new team and 13 covers showed the defending World Series champions.

Now for some jinx-related numbers. Twenty-six of the 68 teams have reached the postseason the year they were on the cover, with six winning the World Series, five losing it, three losing the ALCS, two losing the NLCS, seven losing the ALDS and three losing the NLDS. Both Division Series stats include the 1981 strike-interrupted season, when the Phillies (first half) and Royals (second half) won half the season but lost in their respective division series. Twenty-three teams finished in first place in their divisions (or leagues, before 1969), 15 finished second, 18 third, six fourth, one fifth, three sixth and two seventh. Seven teams won 100 games, two lost 100. Over the years, the teams have averaged a third-place finish and an 86-72 record.

That's it for the broad strokes. Here are the year-by-year covers, broken down by decade. For simplicity, I stuck with the triple-crown stats (AVG/HR/RBI for hitters, W-L/ERA/SO for pitchers), even if that's not how we're supposed to evaluate players these days.

1950s
SI launched in August 1954 -- with baseball on its cover in the form of Braves third baseman Eddie Mathews -- so its first baseball preview issue did not appear until April 1955. The first team to appear on a season preview was the New York Giants, who had won the World Series in '54. The cover subjects were center fielder Willie Mays and manager Leo Durocher, flanking Durocher's wife, Laraine. The cover was controversial because Laraine Durocher, a white woman, is touching Mays, a black man. It has three pages dedicated to it in James S. Hirsch's recent Mays biography. The Say Hey Kid blocked out any distractions, though, and went on to an All-Star season that year and led the Majors with 51 home runs.

Following a series of generic covers, Mays appeared again in 1959, another All-Star season.

1960s
Orioles outfielder Jackie Brandt appeared in 1961, an average .297/16/72 All-Star season, followed by Tigers pitcher Frank Lary, who had a horrible 1962: 2-6/5.74/41. Sandy Koufax got things back on the superstar track in 1964, when he was an All-Star (19-5/1.74/223) and led the NL in ERA.

In 1966, Dick Groat became the first player shown with a new team (and perhaps that's why he was chosen). It backfired when he put up .260/2/53 that season. The editors went the same route, presumably, in 1967, when new Pirates third baseman Maury Wills got the cover and fared ever-so-slightly better (.302/3/45).

Lou Brock was up in 1968, when he led the Majors in doubles, triples and stolen bases and the Cardinals became the first featured team to reach the postseason, losing to the Tigers in the World Series. Brock's appearance also marked the first of four straight years in which the defending World Series champ was on the cover. In 1969, it was Tigers catcher Bill Freehan, who was an All-Star in a .262/16/49 season.

1970s
The defending champions trend continued with Mets left-hander Jerry Koosman (12-7/3.14/118) in 1970, surrounded by caps of the other clubs, and with Orioles slugger Boog Powell (.256/22/92, All-Star) in 1971, the first year that SI's pick went on to win 100 games and the World Series. Cardinals third baseman Joe Torre (.289/11/81) and his sideburns was the choice in 1972, snapping the streak of defending champs.

Though I didn't tally how many of the cover subjects were coming off an award-winning season, I did note that 1973 cover boy Steve Carlton of the Phillies was the defending NL Cy Young winner, following his 27-10/1.97/310 NL Triple Crown campaign. His follow-up was pretty much the opposite: 13-20/3.90/223 for the last-place Phils. Reds outfielder Pete Rose graced the cover in 1974, a nondescript year for him (.284/3/51), and Garvey made his first appearance in 1975, when he went .319/18/95.

The year of my birth, 1976, may have been the bull's eye of SI baseball preview covers. The subject was Reds second baseman Joe Morgan, a future Hall of Famer for the defending World Series champs. He went on to have an MVP and All-Star season, batting .320/27/111 as the Reds went 102-60 and won the Series again. Morgan was so good that year, I'll go a little sabermetric for you: he let the Majors with a .444 OBP, .576 SLG and 1.020 OPS.

As good as '76 was for SI's choice, 1977 was as bad. New Angels outfielder Joe Rudi -- "The Angels' $2-million man" -- went on to a .264/13/53 season for the fifth-place club. The first cover shared by players from different teams appeared in 1978, when Twins first baseman Rod Carew (.333/5/70) and Reds outfielder George Foster (.302/30/98) mugged for Walter Iooss Jr.'s camera. Iooss and the magazine repeated the theme in 1979 with Red Sox outfielder Jim Rice (.325/39/130) and outfielder Dave Parker (.310/25/94) of the Pirates, who won the Series that year. All four were All-Stars as well.

1980s
In 1980, SI asked, "Who is Keith Hernandez and What Is He Doing Hitting .344?" He underachieved at the plate that year -- just .321/16/99 in an All-Star season -- but his mustache, as always, had a Hall of Fame-worthy season. Perhaps foreshadowing the year to come, in 1981 SI split the cover and hit on two teams that would win their divisions during that split season: Mike Schmidt and the Phillies (the defending champs) and George Brett and the Royals. Despite All-Star seasons by both (Schmidt hit .316/31/91, led the Majors in homers and won the NL MVP; Brett hit .314/6/43), the Phillies and Royals each lost in their respective newly-created-for-one year-until-1995 Division Series. The Dodgers won the World Series in '81, prompting Garvey's second cover appearance in 1982, though his numbers (.282/16/86) weren't as good as after his first cover.

In 1983, SI managed to get Gary Carter in between team success -- his Expos reached the playoffs in that split '81 season, and he later starred for the mid-80s Mets, but in '83 he was just the game's best catcher with an All-Star line of .270/17/79. Only the second manager to appear on an SI baseball preview came in 1984, when new Yankees skipper Yogi Berra was shown. The Yanks finished third with an 87-75 record. New York was the subject again in 1985, but this time it was the Mets' Dwight Gooden, coming off his NL Rookie of the Year campaign. He topped that with his Cy Young, MLB Triple Crown season (24-4/1.53/268) for the second-place Mets (98-64). The magazine went up I-95 in 1986, choosing third baseman Wade Boggs (.357/8/71, All-Star) of the Red Sox, who lost the World Series that year to the Mets.

Now we have the cover that started this whole project, the 1987 issue featuring the Indians' Cory Snyder and Joe Carter. It is, perhaps, the single worst baseball preview cover choice in SI's history, though not through the fault of the players. Snyder his .236/33/82 and Carter .264/32/106, but Cleveland went 61-101 -- the first of just two 100-loss teams to appear on a baseball preview cover -- and finished last in the AL East.

The publication bounced back in 1988 with Bay Area first basemen Will Clark (.282/29/109, All-Star, NL RBI leader) and Mark McGwire (.260/32/99, All-Star), whose A's lost the World Series to the Dodgers. (I convinced my parents to subscribe a year later than Brad apparently did with his folks, because this is the first baseball preview issue I recall getting.) The decade closed with Padres catcher Benito Santiago looking up at the camera in 1989; we looked down on him, then looked down on his .236/16/62 season.

1990s
Following the Williams cover in '90, SI tabbed a future Hall of Famer in 1991 in Rangers fireballer Nolan Ryan (12-6/2.91/203). Another future enshrinee appeared in 1992 in the form of Kirby Puckett (.329/19/110), who led the Majors with 210 hits that year and was an All-Star. David Cone got the cover in 1993, the year he returned to Kansas City, but he went just 11-14/3.33/191.

Another split cover preceded baseball's worst season, 1994, when no one won a World Series that didn't happen. After appearing on the first fold-out baseball preview cover, Ken Griffey Jr. hit .323/40/90 for the Mariners, who were in third place (49-63) when the season was stopped, and Mike Piazza went .319/24/92 for the first-place Dodgers (58-56). When baseball returned in 1995, future Hall of Famer Cal Ripken was the face of the season, during which he was an All-Star and went on to hit .262/17/88 while breaking Lou Gehrig's consecutive-games-played streak.

Burned by the Indians in '87, SI waited until the Tribe was coming off a World Series appearance to feature them again in 1996, with Manny Ramirez (.309/33/112) on the cover. Cleveland fared better this time, winning the AL Central before losing in the ALDS. The Big Unit's big face hit mailboxes in 1997, when Randy Johnson went 20-4/2.28/291 and was an All-Star for the NL West-winning (and ALDS-losing) Mariners. He finished second to Roger Clemens in AL Cy Young voting.

McGwire made his second preview cover in 1998, the year he broke Roger Maris' single-season home run record. McGwire's .299/70/147 All-Star year* got him second in NL MVP voting to Sammy Sosa. SI closed the decade, the century, the millenium with new Dodgers pitcher Kevin Brown, who had signed baseball's richest contract in the offseason and at least had a solid 1999: 18-9/3.00/221.

2000s
SI opened the decade in 2000 with a bang, choosing Red Sox righty Pedro Martinez the year he went 18-6/1.74/284 and won the AL Cy Young while leading the Junior Circut in strikeouts and pacing the Majors in ERA. Derek Jeter (.311/21/74, All-Star) followed in 2001, following his World Series MVP autumn, and the Yankees reached the Fall Classic again before losing to the Diamondbacks on the last night of the Yankee dynasty. New Yankee Jason Giambi was the pick in 2002, one of his great years (.314/41/122). A third straight Yankee cover tested the tolerance of the rest of the country in 2003, and it was truly overkill. Not only did it feature five starting pitchers (Roger Clemens, Jeff Weaver, Jose Contreras, Andy Pettitte and Mike Mussina) and the headline, "You can't have too much pitching," centered among all those pinstripes was George Steinbrenner, the only owner on a preview cover.

No Yankees in 2004, but an injury-prone Kerry Wood, who went 8-9/3.72/144 for the Cubs, who didn't win the World Series (again). But Jeter (.309/19/70) returned in 2005, when he and Johnny Damon (.316/10/75) exchanged suspicious glances and then both teams bowed out in the ALDS. SI got the World Series champions right in 2006 with Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols (.331/49/137) and new Red Sox hurler Daisuke Matsuzaka (15-12/4.40/201) in 2007.

In 2008, a showcase of young talent brought six players representing five teams to the fold-out cover: Ryan Braun of the Brewers, Justin Upton of the D-backs and Troy Tulowitzki of the Rockies made the front cover; Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz of the Red Sox and Ryan Zimmerman of the Nationals appeared on the fold-out flap. Braun (.285/37/106 and the only All-Star of the bunch) and the Brewers lost in the NLDS and Boston, with Ellsbury (.280/9/47, AL-leading 50 stolen bases) and Buchholz (2-9/6.75/72), lost in the ALDS. Upton (.250/15/42) and Arizona (second, 82-80), Tulo (.263/8/46) and Colorado (third, 74-88) and Zimmerman (.285/14/51) and Washington (sixth, 59-102) sat out the postseason.

In 2009, the Yankees' new import, CC Sabathia (19-8/3.37/197, MLB lead in wins) was the centerpiece and proved to be a big piece of the Bombers' 27th world championship. For the record, though not part of these stats as I said, the inset photos customized for six regions showed David Wright (lost season), Manny Ramirez (NLCS loss), Carlos Zambrano (face-plant), Carl Crawford (solid campaign), Dustin Pedroia (ALDS loss) and Justin Morneau (ALDS loss).

2010s

When Halladay joined the Phillies, he got the cover in 2010, with insets featuring Sabathia (21 wins, third in AL Cy Young voting), John Lackey (14-11, 4.40 in 215 IP), Brian McCann (.269/21/77, All-Star), Pujols (.312/42/118, second in NL MVP voting), Tulowitzki (.315/27/95, fifth in NL MVP voting) and Matt Kemp (.249/28/89). The next year, Halladay made history by being part of the main image (not the inset) in consecutive seasons when the entire Philly rotation got the cover in 2011. Halladay did well those years, winning the NL Cy Young in '10 with a league-leading 21 wins (against 10 losses), 2.44 ERA and 219 strikeouts. His 2011 was very similar (19-6/2.35/220) for an average line those two years of 20-8/2.40/219.5. Philadelphia won the NL East both years, going 97-65 in '10 (when they lost the NLCS to the Giants) and 102-60 in '11 (when they lost in the NLDS to the Cardinals).

In 2012, it was back to the single, true national cover, with Pujols making his second solo appearance after signing his huge free-agent contract with the Angels in the offseason. He started slowly but finished strong to post a respectable .285/30/105, even if the average and home runs were the worst of his career. He still somehow managed to finish 17th in AL MVP voting for a club that went 89-73 and finished in third place in the AL West.

Following a practice it has used often for college preview issues, whether leading into a season or postseason, SI printed six regional covers in 2013, unveiling them on Twitter at the rate of one an hour in the morning and early afternoon the day before they hit newstands. Stephen Strasburg -- and the magazine's pick to win the World Series, the Nationals -- led it off just after 9 a.m. ET, followed by David Price (the first Rays appearance in their history), Justin Verlander (amazingly, the first Tiger since Freehan in '69), Sabathia (his second solo appearance, joining Garvey and Pujols), James Shields (the first Royal since Cone in 1993) and Clayton Kershaw (the Dodgers' first appearance since Brown in '99). Using six starting pitchers also widened the gap between hurlers (31 to date) and the next-closest position, outfielders (19).

The 2014 preview went back to the one national cover, with a caveat -- three certain regions got their own unique images. Masahiro Tanaka drew the honors for the national cover, but those in the Northwest received Robinson Cano, the Southwest (I would guess) got Mike Trout and the Midwest got Yadier Molina. Tanaka and Cano, of course, fit the player on a new team criteria, with Tanaka (a Yankee) also on a team with postseason aspirations (sorry, Mariners). Molina's team, the defending National League champions, also is expected to play into October, and Trout is the best player in the game.

The Nationals, for the second straight year, are SI's pick to win the World Series. In '13, they missed out on the playoffs by four games, with a still-respectable 86-76 record.

My two Nationals fan friends asked in 2013 if the six regional covers meant just a 1/6th chance of a cover jinx for their club, and I suppose this spreading of the wealth could dilute such a hex, though the Nats remained the only club picked to win the World Series, so it wouldn't be an even six-way split, if you ask me. Not that it matters. I'm not sure there's a jinx so much as a heightened awareness of the teams and players featured -- who generally are the top teams and stars, at least in the past few decades -- so that anything short of a World Series title or award-winning season is seen as proof of a hex. I mean, are Mariners fans really going to blame the SI cover jinx if their team doesn't win the World Series in 2014?

But hey, I've run the numbers -- use them as you see fit.

The six covers of SI's 2013 baseball preview issue

It's that time of year. Sports Illustrated released its baseball preview cover yesterday.

Actually, that should be covers. For the first time in the 59 years of SI baseball preview issues, the magazine has printed true regional covers, six in all, with a main image customized for four different regions of the country: Northeast, Mid-Atlanic, South, Midwest (both Rust Belt and Plains) and West. My comprehensive look at the history of the baseball preview covers has been updated to include this year, but in this post I'm going to take a closer look at each of the six produced for the 2013 season, in the order of success I think they'll have.

But first, what these covers do for the totals. By featuring six starting pitchers, SI widened the gap between starters (31) and the next-most-frequent position, outfielders (19). Five of the six players made their baseball preview cover debuts, pushing the total number of players shown over the years to 70. We've also got a team represented for the first time, bringing us up to 25 of the current 30 clubs, leaving out only the Blue Jays, White Sox (a bit surprising), Astros, Marlins and Braves (also quite surprising).

So here are the six 2013 preview covers listed, in my mind, from least deserving to most, with "deserving" defined as ideally being the favorite (or at least a top-two favorite) to win its division.

James Shields, Royals

Shields is the only one of the six this year to fulfill one of two themes that have come up frequently: a player on a new team or a player on the defending champions. The right-hander, of course, was traded to Kansas City (most of the "new team" players were free agents, with the Phillies' Roy Halladay in 2010 another trade exception). Shields is the first Royal on the cover since David Cone in 1993 -- when he was new to Kansas City after signing a free-agent deal.
The Royals are certainly an interesting story this year. They added Shields, Wade Davis (in the same deal) and Ervin Santana to the rotation and they have a deep, young core with Salvador Perez, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Alex Gordon and Billy Butler (and you can add Alcides Escobar and Lorenzo Cain to the list if you'd like). And though expected to be dominated by the Tigers, the AL Central is otherwise a pretty balanced division, or at least one in which the Royals could make some noise. But I just don't see them as one of the top two contenders -- that'd be Detroit and Chicago -- like four of the other five covers feature.

CC Sabathia, Yankees

This is the issue that arrived in my mailbox today. Despite the cover (which I knew I'd receive), it was a pleasant surprise, because what used to be a regular Wednesday (Thursday at the latest) appearance in my mail has, over maybe the past year, become more of a Thursday-if-I'm-lucky/usually Friday/occasionally Saturday treat in the mail. So to have it the first day I could conceivably expect it was nice.

As for the cover subject, let's put this out there now: The Yankees are there because SI didn't want to omit the huge New York market. Robinson Cano would've been the better choice, but it certainly looks like these six cover subjects were chosen because they're all pitchers (clearly, I haven't flipped through the issue -- or read the headlines -- yet). But if you ask me, the Yankees don't fit the criteria of a top-two contender in the division, either. With their age and all the injuries (not mutually exclusive), I think they'll have an uphill battle to catch Toronto and Tampa Bay. The Yankees have holes at catcher, third/first base (wherever Kevin Youkilis doesn't play, and at least until -- though maybe after -- Mark Teixeira returns) and wherever Vernon Wells plays (but to be fair, SI had its preview in the bag before that deal went down).

But this choice makes Sabathia one of the rare two-time featured athletes. Only seven players have appeared on multiple covers (two each), with only three of those getting the featured spot to themselves. Willie Mays appeared in 1955 and '59, Steve Garvey in '75 and '82 (both solo), Mark McGwire in '88 and '98, Derek Jeter in 2001 and '05, Albert Pujols in '06 and '12 (both solo), Halladay in 2010 and '11 and Sabathia in 2009 and '13 (both solo, because I'm not counting the 2009 regional inset).

Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers

Kershaw is the first Dodger to grace the preview cover since Kevin Brown in 1999 -- the year he (wait for it) began a seven-year deal with Los Angeles. He was baseball's first $100 million man, signing for $105 million. The Dodgers are certainly one of the big storylines of the upcoming season, and it wouldn't have surprised me to see them featured nationally, had SI gone that route. But they still have to take on the defending World Series champions -- who didn't get a regional cover, despite a worthy hurler in Matt Cain, who I probably would've gone with over Shields. L.A. is a strong contender, easily a top-two pick in the NL West, but among these cover candidates, I think it has the fourth-best chance of winning the division.

David Price, Rays

With this image, Tampa Bay became the 25th active club to have a player featured on a preview cover. Not even the 2008 collection of '05 draft picks included a (Devil) Ray. (That's because Tampa Bay selected Wade Townsend eighth overall, passing on Red Sox coverboys Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz, not to mention Andrew McCutchen, Jay Bruce and Matt Garza, to name a few.)

Price is an apt choice as the defending AL Cy Young Award winner, the head of a strong, young pitching staff and a stud who's about to come into a big payday of his own. Plus, the Rays have a great chance to contend in (and win) an AL East that sees the Red Sox still trying to get their footing, the Orioles having made no major changes to the luckiest team in Major League history (an unprecedented -- and likely unrepeatable -- 29-9 in one-run games, not to mention 16-2 in extra innings) and the Yankees aging before our eyes. Sure, the Blue Jays are loaded after a busy offseason, but just ask the Marlins -- several of whom are now in Toronto -- how that worked out last year.

I should say, too, that the Blue Jays -- particularly R.A. Dickey -- would've been a great choice for a cover, too, but I wonder if he was omitted because SI is an American magazine and choosing a regional cover for Toronto might not fit into their marketing plans. The Jays have never been featured on a preview issue before (though the Expos have), but it certainly wasn't going to happen as a regional option.

Justin Verlander, Tigers

In reality, I'm considering this one a tie with the next one. In fact, I think Detroit has a better chance of winning its division, but I'm listing it here for a reason I'll get to in a moment. But as I said in discussing the Shields cover, it's going to take a mighty effort by the White Sox, Royals or Indians to overtake the Tigers in the AL Central, and with that lineup and this guy heading the rotation, it's unlikely.

Surprisingly for a franchise that's had Sparky Anderson, Kirk Gibson, Alan Trammell, Cecil Fielder and currently the best pitcher in the game, Verlander marks the Tigers' first appearance on a preview cover since Bill Freehan represented the defending champs on the 1969 cover.

Stephen Strasburg, Nationals

While I do think Detroit has a better chance of winning its division than Washington, I list this as the most deserving cover because the Nationals are SI's pick to win the World Series. In my mind, they'll have a tougher time fending off the Braves than the Tigers will holding back any of their division opponents, but if the magazine is picking the team to go all the way, then give it the cover, I say.

Strasburg represents D.C.'s second preview cover appearance, after Ryan Zimmerman on the 2008 fold-out issue. The previous Washington franchises -- both iterations of the Senators -- never got the honor. As I noted in the cover analysis post, my friends in Virginia aren't happy about the cover jinx touching their team, but one rationalized that it's only 1/6th of a jinx, on account of the regional covers.

We'll see about that. But one thing's sure: After what was seen as a surprising run to the NL East title last year, the Nationals won't be sneaking up on anyone this year. They're the favorites, and everyone will be gunning for them.

2008 preview: NL East

NEW YORK METS

In general

Last year is over. It is. So is the time to talk about it. That time was February, when players reported to Port St. Lucie. A slow start isn't a reason to talk about it again, nor is losing two out of three to the Phillies in the second week. But neither of those will happen, so it shouldn't be a problem. Final standings aside, there's still a case to be made that the Mets were the best team in the division in 2007. They led for 140 days; Philadelphia was on top just four days. The Phillies certainly played better down the stretch and showed they wanted it more. The Mets tried to act calm and collected, like they'd been there before, but this group really hadn't. They were in a pennant race, something they didn't really experience in 2006, when they had a comfortable lead that even a three-game sweep in Pittsburgh didn't threaten. That September, they clinched the next day. This year, you can be sure, the Mets won't take anything for granted.

The Mets' biggest concern -- their biggest rival, in a way -- will be age. Moises Alou is already out until May (I'm not believing any April projections with that guy), two key starting pitchers are in the twilights of their careers and coming off injuries or rehab in 2006, and they not only signed a 32-year-old second baseman with 42-year-old knees to a four-year deal, but they had about a dozen second base candidates miss time in Spring Training with injuries. But every team has injury issues. Hopefully, the Mets have the depth -- or go out and get it -- to get through the lean times this season.

This is still a lineup that can contend with any in the league. Jose Reyes will continue to mature, Carlos Beltran has put his rough first season in New York behind him and David Wright had as good a season as any in the NL. Carlos Delgado's '07 campaign was a big concern, but he's playing for one last contract this year, so here's hoping he has the same good fortune that so many players in that situation have had of late.

Where this division will be won is on the mound. There's no doubt that the acquisition of Johan Santana was the coup the Mets needed this offseason. He's the best pitcher in the game and a perennial Cy Young candidate. Bringing him in pushes everyone else back into a more suitable rotation slot, particularly Pedro Martinez, whose age and recent injuries made him a risky ace. And the young and impressive Oliver Perez (also in a contract year) and John Maine have the potential to make this the best top four in the league. I just hope Mike Pelfrey can get it together in '08; he has too much potential to start off 0-7 and not stick in the rotation.

So many discount the Mets' bullpen, but who outside of San Diego and Chicago really has a slam-dunk bullpen? Starting at the back, Billy Wagner remains one of the best closers in the league, Aaron Heilman has proven so valuable as a setup man that the Mets have refused to move him into the rotation even when he could've helped there, Duaner Sanchez looked good in spring ball and will work to get his arm strength and stamina back up before joining the team, and even Jorge Sosa has been a strong long man. The issue will be more Willie Randolph's use of his relievers than their execution. Perhaps taking the wrong page from Joe Torre's managerial handbook, Randolph overused his bullpen to the point that it struggled in September. Fresher arms through the first five months should mean better results in the final one.

What I'm looking forward to seeing

Jose Reyes may very well be the best shortstop in the game, but his detractors are finding fewer and fewer things to criticize. His plate discipline is no longer an issue after he brought his walks up to a nearly 1:1 ratio with his strikeouts. The only thing left is his maturity and makeup -- as energetic and fun-loving as he is, he found himself in the dog house a couple of times in '07 when Randolph benched him for not running out popups that landed fair. He shouldn't be making those mistakes anymore, and more rest in '08 should keep him fresh for the stretch run. Put him in Citizens Bank Park, and he'll hit 25 home runs too. In 2008, the average, runs and steals will be there. I expect the power and discipline will be, too.

Other fun things to look for: Santana's dominance, Pedro's perseverance, Pelfrey's potential realized, Ollie and Maine taking the next step, and Wright winning that MVP that slipped from his grasp last year when his team crumbled around him.

ATLANTA BRAVES

In general

After so many years of Atlanta dominance, I wasn't quite sure I could believe that it was the third-place team yet again in 2007. For a while, it looked like the Braves wouldn't be. They took two out of three from the Mets in every series before the All-Star break and led the division for 29 days, but none after May 15. But they faded through August, including a home sweep to the Mets at the end of the month. I still think they're counting on too much from Chipper Jones, Mike Hampton and even John Smoltz, all of whom have age and/or injury issues. Plus, Andruw Jones is gone, and Mark Kotsay cannot fill those shoes, even after Andruw's down year in '07.

Atlanta does get a full season from Mark Teixeira, who's 27 and in his contract year. He's next winter's top free agent, with what figures to be no fewer than four teams seriously chasing him. First, there's the Braves, who will be going after the Georgia Tech product and may take advantage of a year without Andruw's salary to make a competitive offer. Second is his hometown Orioles, who will need a veteran cornerstone after a year of development from just about every other player in their lineup. Third and fourth, you'll have the two New York teams with first-base openings and some big contracts coming off the books -- more for the Yankees, who won't have Jason Giambi, Bobby Abreu, Andy Pettitte or Mike Mussina in 2009.

I'm not as sold on the pitching. Smoltz is now on the DL, though he should be back to face the Mets in the season's second series. Hampton -- please. Tim Hudson remains a big-game pitcher for them, but as good a guy as Tom Glavine is and what he did for the Mets for the better part of his five years in New York, his final start at Shea was nothing short of disastrous. Was it the beginning of the end? Too soon to tell, because in the end, it was just one start. I love Rafael Soriano as the closer, but the middle relief in recent years has not been as good as that of past Braves championship teams.

What I'm looking forward to seeing

Not much, because despite two years of third-place finishes, I still don't like the Braves. I've always been a fan of Teixeira, so hopefully he has a down year and the Mets sign him at a relative discount (relative to what he should make). I'm not sure what kind of reaction Glavine will get at Shea, but my guess would be an unfavorable one. I can see the fans remembering the final day against the Marlins more than any near-no-hitters or Opening Day wins he had. The final line on Glavine's Mets career: 61-56, 3.97 ERA, 1.38 WHIP. His first start, a 15-2 Opening Day loss to the Cubs in 2003: 3 2/3 8 hits, 5 earned runs, 4 walk, 2 strikeouts. His last one:
1/3, 5 hits, 7 earned runs, 2 walks, 0 strikeouts.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

In general

The Mets' rivalry with the Braves never seemed to be that heated to me, except when they played. Perhaps it was distance, but more likely it was the fact that it was so one-sided. The Mets were the younger brother trying to knock the older brother off the couch, similar to the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry ... until 2004. But now, New York has a rivalry with Philadelphia in baseball. In some ways, the Mets-Phillies rivalry was similar to Mets-Braves, with the Mets in the Braves' position of superiority (they've had more winning seasons and more playoff appearances than the Phillies in the past decade) and the Phillies playing the part of the young upstarts. Now, it's a true, full-blown face-off, with many picking the clubs as the top two in the division.

I don't buy it, for one reason: Pitching. The Phillies, as I said before, led the division for just four days and won by one game. Yet they did it with 11 starts from Kyle Lohse down the stretch and 12 from Jon Leiber over the season -- and didn't feel a need to re-sign either one. They did it with a 6.29 ERA over 30 starts from Adam Eaton, one of the worst ERAs for a full-time starter in baseball history. And they did it with a magical 10-4 performance over 20 starts from rookie Kyle Kendrick, despite his 3.64 K/9 ratio.

Brett Myers returns to the front of the rotation, which helps, and Cole Hamels may be the best No. 2 starter outside of Arizona, but after that they're relying on 45-year-old Jamie Moyer (5.01 ERA in '07), Kendrick and Eaton. Myers is back in the rotation because of the acquisition of closer Brad Lidge, but he had knee surgery in the spring and starts on the DL -- meaning shaky 38-year-old Tom Gordon begins the season closing games. When he returns, Lidge has to adjust to another homer-heavy ballpark, recover from his surgery and overcome blown saves in front of the tough Philly fans. If I were a Phillies fan, the bullpen would concern me, but the rotation would terrify me.

Luckily for them, the Phillies play in a glorified minor league park. Well, a big league park with a minor league left field wall. Jimmy Rollins, free-agent-to-be Pat Burrell and free-agent gone Aaron Rowand have all taken advantage of it. Rollins and Burrell will again, as will new third baseman Pedro Feliz. But there are holes now in center and right fields, where I'm not sure Shane Victorino (center) is an everyday player (I know he played a lot in 2007, but we'll have to see if he can adjust to pitchers exposing his weaknesses on a regular basis) and the combo of Jayson Werth and Geoff Jenkins in right isn't any worse than what the Mets are going with in Ryan Church. When you're counting on Burrell to be the anchor in the outfield, the best hitter of the bunch, you'd better be pretty sure of what you're getting from him.

What I'm looking forward to seeing

A collapse, a plunge, a slow start followed by a long summer and a double-digit deficit and barely-.500 record in September. What can I say? I've got my team, and this isn't it. Look, there are some good players and better guys, particularly Ryan Howard and Chase Utley. Utley is the MVP of this team, regardless of the last two writers' votes, and he probably would've won it last year if he hadn't been out for a month. Howard will have to avoid 200 strikeouts or risk seeing his batting average plummet for a second straight season (.313 in 2006, .268 in '07) and his homers take another dip (58 to 47), but he should reach 40 again, easily. And Hamels will have to put his unhappiness with his contract behind him for one more season. Look, kid, I know you're confident in your abilities and all, but you've had one full, healthy season as a big leaguer. You've shown you can do it, now show you can do it again. Then you'll have earned your payday. There's nothing wrong with making $500,000.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS

In general

The Nationals signed Odalis Perez to a minor league deal on Feb. 19. He was seen as insurance in case oft-injured John Patterson or Shawn Hill was not ready to start the season. Patterson has since been released, Hill is indeed injured, and Perez will be the Opening Day starter on Sunday night as the team opens Nationals Park. Wow. I've often chuckled at the pie-in-the-sky expectations some with this team have had this offseason, but how do you say those things when your rotation is Perez, Matt Chico, Tim Redding, Jason Bergmann and Hill?

There's a lot to like with Ryan Zimmerman, Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes, but the team will have to watch Dukes -- and, to a lesser extent, Milledge -- as he adjusts to a new team and new city, considering his history. I'm all for second chances and I hope Dukes can turn his life and career around the way Josh Hamilton did, though Dukes' transgressions didn't involve hard-core drugs and life-threatening choices. But 100 RBIs from each of them, including Zimmerman, who should reach that mark? (There are those expectations again.) To do that, you need to have guys on base, and if Cristian Guzman is going to be the leadoff hitter with his projected .310 OBP, there's no way Milledge gets to 100, especially if he's hitting second. And Dukes will have to play enough to do so, but when Wily Mo Pena returns, Dukes may return to fourth-outfielder status, unless he starts off on a tear. Zimmerman had 91 RBIs last year and no one else had more than 74. The new ballpark should increase scoring, but I don't think it will be by that much to get three 100-RBI guys.

What I'm looking forward to seeing

I'd like to see this team take another step forward, though I would prefer they do that mostly against the Braves and Phillies. They need pitching, and that will come, but by 2010, we could be seeing a four-deep division with the Mets, Phillies, Braves and Nationals competing like the D-backs, Rockies, Padres and Dodgers will be in the West this year. And I'm looking forward to my as-yet-undetermined trip to D.C. to see the new ballpark. Plus, I'm anticipating Opening Night, when the Braves and Nats start the season in earnest on ESPN.

FLORIDA MARLINS

In general

This certainly is Hanley Ramirez's team now, isn't it? Gone are Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, leaving Ramirez as the lone star, the face of the franchise, and the clear Marlins representative in New York in July for the All-Star Game. Ramirez and Dan Uggla ... and what? There's Mike Jacobs and Josh Willingham, who are slowly but surely rounding into solid players. There's Jeremy Hermida, an outfielder who came up with a bang (a grand slam in his first at-bat) but struggled with injuries last year. And there's a hothead in Scott Olsen as the only recognizable face in the rotation, with the possible exception of Ricky Nolasco. I mean, this team's Opening Day starter is Mark Hendrickson! Even among basketball big men in the league, he's still only No. 2, behind San Diego's Chris Young.

I really don't know what else there is to say about a team that dumps its best players every four years -- is this a college program? -- leaving its fans to wait another year or two for the prospects to mature. The two biggest pieces of the Cabrera/Willis deal are outfielder Cameron Maybin, who's starting the season in the minors, and pitcher Andrew Miller, who struggled mightily in the start I saw him pitch against the Dodgers in Vero Beach.

What I'm looking forward to seeing

How will losing Cabrera affect Ramirez's production? And will he run less, as manager Fredi Gonzalez would like? And when will they start building that new stadium? In 2009, Dolphin Stadium will be the oldest ballpark in the NL East. Amazing.

2008 preview: NL Central

CHICAGO CUBS

In general

The Cubs seem poised for a repeat appearance in the postseason -- and another year-long battle for the division with their Wisconsin neighbors, the Brewers. Gone are outfielders Jacque Jones and Cliff Floyd and perennially injured starter Mark Prior. The main replacements are prospect Felix Pie and free agents Kosuke Fukudome and Jon Lieber, both of whom have to be considered upgrades. Anything from Lieber is better than nothing from Prior.

So there's a lot to like from the defending NL Central champions, and if they get contributions from the minors -- like Jeff Samardzija in a relief/fill-in starter role -- later in the season should any injuries arrive, they should at least have a chance to enter the tournament to for their first World Series title in 100 years.

A leadoff hitter would help, allowing Alfonso Soriano to hit in a run-producing spot, where his inability to draw a walk wouldn't hurt so much. Finally completing a trade for Brian Roberts would fill that void, but don't hold your breath. What they need is for Pie to prove he can hit at the top of the order, followed by Ryan Theriot and leaving the 3-4-5-6 spots to some combination of Fukudome, Soriano, Derek Lee and Aramis Ramirez. The NL Rookie of the Year could very well come from a catcher in the division -- either Chicago's Geovany Soto or Houston's J.R. Towles.

Lieber and Ryan Dempster essentially fill the rotation spots once annually left for Kerry Wood and Prior, though neither had much use for them from the disabled list. Add in Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Rich Hill and Jason Marquis, and the Cubs actually have a surplus of capable starters, so someone will be a long man out of the bullpen. Wood takes over the closer role, with Carlos Marmol and Bob Howry setting him up (and filling in, if need be), along with Scott Eyre. It's a well-balanced team with enough pieces to be at the top of the standings from start to finish. The Cubs did have the second-best team ERA and third-best bullpen ERA in the NL in 2007.

What I'm looking forward to seeing

It's been fun watching the likes of Ichiro and Hideki Matsui come over from Japan, so what does the season hold for Fukudome? How will Zambrano react to pitching with his big contract? Just how good will Hill be? Can Wood stay healthy in the closer role? Does Samardzija make his debut?

MILWAUKEE BREWERS

In general

The Brew Crew ended its streak of consecutive non-winning seasons (they had an 81-81 campaign in 2005) at 14 and led the division for most of 2007 and is poised complete the turnaround this year. With few changes in the lineup or the rotation, the only question on this team is the bullpen. Closer Francisco Cordero left for division rival Cincinnati, and GM Doug Melvin chose Eric Gagne as the replacement. Whether he signed the one who pitched well in Texas last year or the one who bombed with Boston in the stretch drive may mean the difference in whether Milwaukee or Chicago is adding bunting to the ballpark in October.

The rotation adds Yovani Gallardo for a (mostly) full season, once he gets into playing shape after spring knee surgery and loses Chris Capuano -- who went something like 15 starts without a win last year -- to his second Tommy John procedure. The lineup benefits from a full season of Rookie of the Year* (it should've been Troy Tulowitzki) Ryan Braun. Plus, the addition of center fielder Mike Cameron (after his 25-game suspension for a positive amphetamines test) moves Bill Hall back to third base and puts the brutal Braun in left. Though they did decide Jason Kendall would be a good free-agent pickup behind the plate, which is ridiculous. Hopefully it was their only option. Still, this is a young team on the rise, not a fluke.

What I'm looking forward to seeing

Man, Braun was just brutal at third base, so putting him in left field limits the damage his glove can do. But what kind of numbers will he put up without having to worry as much about his defense? Gallardo is supposed to be the second coming of Dwight Gooden, or something like that, and I love the young flamethrowers. Ben Sheets is in the final year of his contract, so I'd like to see a strong season -- particularly for all the recent years he's burned me on my fantasy staff. And how does the Gagne investment pay off?

CINCINNATI REDS

In general

They finished 72-90 last year, but the Reds are poised for a turnaround. I don't think they'll get quite that far. I don't really see any surprises like last year's Rockies this year, in part because there's not much room for a darkhorse to break through. Colorado benefitted from a wide-open division last year and eeked out a Wild Card berth. But the NL West is so deep that none of the four teams who could win it would be a surprise. The Cubs and Brewers in the Central aren't sneaking up on anybody, and I think they'll either both make the postseason, or the Wild Card will land in another division. In the East, you've got three teams who can win it and two who can't. A quick look at the AL shows that the Jays and Rays -- no matter how good they can be -- won't surge ahead of either the Yankees or Red Sox; the Central has three contenders, and should the White Sox sneak in there, they wouldn't be all that surprising. A Seattle postseason berth really seems like the only possibility among the non-favorites.

But back to the Reds. They're getting younger, with Ken Griffey Jr. on the cusp of 600 home runs, but also beginning to make way for the future stars. Adam Dunn is in his walk year, so he'll either stick around as a franchise player or open up a clear spot for Jay Bruce in a year. Brandon Phillips leads the infield, with a young corner combo of Joey Votto at first and Edwin Encarnacion at third. The Reds still like their young rotation combo of Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo, but they need a rebound from Arroyo, who went 9-15 last year. Sending prospect Homer Bailey to the minors is frustrating, but he should be up to stay by the end of the year.

Cincinnati's biggest issue in 2007 was a bullpen that couldn't hold leads before it got to closer David Weathers (and sometimes when it did get to him). Signing Cordero away from the Brewers helps by pushing Weathers back into a setup role and making the 'pen deeper overall. Now those arms just have to be more consistent.

What I'm looking forward to seeing

Votto should be a fine replacement to popular former Reds first baseman Sean Casey, but with more power. Everyone has more power at this point than Casey, unfortunately. Griffey's homer chase should be fun to watch, because he's one of baseball's good guys and has never had a hint of scandal associated with his name in this recent era of scandalous allegations. Dunn's season will be interesting for fans of those teams with left field openings in 2009 -- like the Mets.

HOUSTON ASTROS

In general

Love the lineup. Hate the rotation. And the bullpen may have taken a step back. But first, the offense. Oh, the offense. Carlos Lee has proven to be an excellent signing, particularly with the way Minute Maid Park is set up for right-handed hitters. Now they'll get a full year of Hunter Pence and have added shortstop Miguel Tejada, who should see a rebound coming to a more formidable lineup and benefitting from the aforementioned -- or previously alluded to -- Crawford Boxes in left field. New center fielder Michael Bourn should, at the very least, be what Willy Taveras was when he was the center fielder and leadoff hitter. And Kaz Matsui -- once he gets over his, ahem, surgery -- will be no worse than Craig Biggio was in his final few years.

But now the pitching. Beyond Roy Oswalt -- who has fallen to 15 and 14 wins the last two years after consecutive 20-win campaigns -- we're looking at Wandy Rodriguez, Brandon Backe (coming off injury), Woody Williams and Chris Sampson. Or Shawn Chacon may be in there somewhere. As good as Oswalt is, I'd take the Reds' duo of Harang and Arroyo, with whatever else they have, over him and Houston's back four. The bullpen dealt talented but perhaps troubled -- and oft-aching -- closer Brad Lidge, but picked up a new one in Jose Valverde. But Valverde has yet to put together two capable, consistent seasons in a row without being bounced as Arizona's stopper, so he's no sure thing. He also cost Chad Qualls, one of Houston's stallwart setup men. This team could sure use a hard-throwing future Hall of Famer, but he's not worth the headaches.

What I'm looking forward to seeing

Big fan of Pence. I love the kids who come up and take the league by storm. The Rookie of the Year Award was his -- until he got hurt, missed a month, and allowed Braun to take over the headlines. And Bourn can run all day, so 50 steals isn't a bad over-under for him. J.R. Towles takes over the catching duties, where he'll have the guidance of previous starter and current backup Brad Ausmus. That kind of asset can only help.

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

In general

It was only a year ago when the Cards entered the season as the defending World Series champions. But they barely got out of that first game before their ace was lost for the season -- and perhaps a month or two of this one -- and not much has gone right since. Even their best player -- one of baseball's best players -- Albert Pujols has said that his injured right elbow will someday require surgery, but he's going to play with the discomfort as long as he can. For now, he's still slugging, but it may be sometime in August, when St. Louis is looking way up at Milwaukee and Chicago, that he calls it a season and gets the procedure out of the way.

Pujols anchors a solid middle four of the batting order, with Rick Ankiel having successfully completed his conversion from pitching prospect to outfield prospect and Troy Glaus coming over from Toronto in exchange for disgruntled third baseman Scott Rolen. Chris Duncan, like Ankiel a left-handed swinger, completes the quartet and the left-right balance. But beyond that, you've got Skip Shumaker as the likely leadoff hitter, Yadier Molina as a significantly better fielding catcher than hitting one, a declining Adam Kennedy at second base and the oft-waived Cesar Izturis at shortstop -- and hitting ninth, in favor of the pitcher at No. 8. At least it appears Tony La Russa will choose to do that again this year.

Chris Carpenter's absence from the rotation makes Adam Wainwright the No. 1 starter -- and puts Braden Looper in the No. 2 slot. Yikes. Kyle Lohse wasn't signed until about two weeks ago, and the moment that contract became official was the moment Lohse became the No. 3 starter. That's how desparate this team is for pitching; it needed to sign a guy with a 63-74 career record and 4.82 ERA whom nobody wanted all offseason. I don't even have to go any futher into the rotation. But that brings us to a bullpen anchored by successful closer Jason Isringhausen, and his degenrative hip. The relief corps will have its good days and bad, but there will definitely be both.

What I'm looking forward to seeing

I've seen projections for Ankiel reaching 30 or even 40 home runs and 90 or 100 RBIs. Should he reach the latter numbers, what an amazing comeback story he would be. A full season from him this year would complete the tale; otherwise, last year's late-season performance will be just an afterword on his disastrous pitching downfall. And if Pujols can still be a 35-homer, 95-RBI monster with elbow issues, he's perhaps better than we first thought.

PITTSBURGH PIRATES

In general

It's going to be another long year with plenty of good seats available in baseball's best ballpark. There's a new CEO and GM who brought in a new manager and coaching staff. But it's the same old players, though the old guys -- as in holdovers -- are at least getting younger. The good news is that they're no longer bringing in the overpaid, past-their-prime veterans like Jeromy Burnitz and Joe Randa. The trade for Matt Morris last August was questionable, but at the very least, he provides a veteran presence to a young pitching staff and his contract will be off the books at the end of the season.

There's a good base with Freddy Sanchez, Adam LaRoche, Jason Bay and Xavier Nady. Nate McLouth won the starting center field job in Spring Training, and there is lots of anticipation in the Steel City for prospects Andrew McCutchen and Steven Pearce. It's just a matter of time before they get the call.

On the mound, Ian Snell, Tom Gorzelanny, Paul Maholm and Zach Duke would appear to be a fine nucleus for a starting rotation, but they've all struggled to establish themselves. How much of that is the result of their own abilities and what can be attributed to the shortfalls of the team behind them is still to be determined. The bullpen, other than promising young closer Matt Capps, is a toss-up.

What I'm looking forward to seeing

Signs of life. Anything. I'd like to see McCutchen and Pearce come up and lock themselves into the lineup for the next decade. I'd like to see Snell, Gorzelanny and Duke put it all together and become a poor man's late-2000s version of Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz. Or even just Steve Avery, Glavine and Smoltz. If it weren't for my fondness for the city and the ballpark, I probably wouldn't care much about this team. But I do. Still, even this much on them for 2008 is too much.

2008 preview: NL West

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

In general

There is only one certainty in the NL West this year: The Giants will not win the division. And they probably will finish last. After that, this group is a tossup. Arizona, Colorado, Los Angeles and San Diego can each win this thing, and each could finish anywhere from second to fourth. We could see all four within five games of one another at the end. Or we could see one or two of them crash and burn and fall a dozen games or more off the pace.

I don't feel good about this one, but I'm going with Arizona because I like their balance. If Randy Johnson is healthy and can win 12 games -- he needs 16 to get to 300 -- that's not a bad fourth starter, and a fourth starter is probably what you have to consider him to be now. Putting him behind Brandon Webb, Dan Haren and (my choice) Micah Owings gives the D-backs a deep rotation, and Doug Davis as a fifth starter is more than a lot of teams have. In the 'pen, tabbing Brandon Lyon as the closer soon after Jose Valverde was traded was a move questioned by some -- OK, maybe mostly fantasy folk -- but if he can hold the job, it makes the relief corps that much deeper, because it keeps hard-throwing Tony Pena in a setup role. But if the two are switched, they might not see that much of a dropoff. They've also got Chad Qualls, acquired in the Valverde deal.

Arizona's West title in 2007 was a bit of an anomaly. The D-backs went 90-72, but gave up more runs than they scored -- scoring, on average, 4.40 runs per game but yielding 4.52. Baseball Prospectus put their expected record with that run differential at 79-83. In 2006, the Padres allowed more runs than they scored in winning the division, but in '07, they collapsed down the stretch and gave up the Wild Card spot to the Rockies. But the young lineup Arizona enters 2008 with is similar to the one it finished '07 with, meaning these young guys have a year under their belts and should see some improvement. They've experienced first place, a pennant race and two playoff rounds. Eric Byrnes, Chris Young and Justin Upton may be the finest young outfield in baseball and Stephen Drew will soon emerge into an infield leader as Orlando Hudson passes the torch. Mark Reynolds and Conor Jackson at the corners still have a little to prove over the course of a full season, but this does have the makings of a strong young infield. If Chad Tracy can recover from his injuries, he's a viable backup or replacement at either third or first base.

What I'm looking forward to seeing

The Big Unit is the lynchpin. If he's healthy and can fill out the rotation -- pushing Edgar Gonzalez or whoever back into the bullpen -- they're better off. I'd like to see him get to 300 wins, but 16 this year is asking a lot. How will Haren handle the change from one of baseball's best pitcher's parks to one that's not so forgiving? Can Lyon hold onto the closer's job? Is Chris Young a 30-30 guy in his second season? Just how good will Upton be? And do the D-backs have a budding rivalry with the Rockies that will provide plenty of great moments for years to come?

COLORADO ROCKIES

In general

I love this club and I wanted to put them first, but with three-fifths of their starting rotation still having a lot to prove and the nature of their playoff appearance last year -- winning 20 out of 21 in September and October will not happen in 2008 -- I have to bump them down a notch. I'm tempted, in fact, to put them third, but I'm not going to; I'll explain when I get to that third-place team.

I love the Rockies because they have two of the best hitters in the division. Matt Holliday is the top player out West and Troy Tulowitzki may soon battle him for that title. Tulo is 6'3", 205 pounds -- the same height and 20 pounds lighter (currently) than another former young shortstop star who began his career in the Pacific time zone. That would be Alex Rodriguez, and while I'm not saying Tulo is going to go on to hit 700 home runs over his career (as everyone can pretty much agree A-Rod will, I think), to me there are a lot of similarities between the two. Tulo is just as good a defender at short as A-Rod was, and in his first season he developed into a threat at the plate and a leader on the field and in the clubhouse, prompting the Rockies to come forward with the biggest contract for a player with such little experience in Major League history. Like the American League was in the 90s, the NL is now stocked with young star shortstops. With Tulo, Drew, Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez and Jimmy Rollins, at least two deserving players will soon be left out of most All-Star Games.

Jeff Francis will finish his career as, by far, the best pitcher ever to wear the purple and black and aside from the aforementioned sluggers, perhaps the best draft pick in the organization's history. Yes, better than Todd Helton. But behind Francis and Aaron Cook, the Rox will be turning to Ubaldo Jimenez and two of these three: Franklin Morales, Mark Redman and Josh Towers. So that's two youngsters and two veterans who don't raise too much excitment in any fan. In relief, the emergence of Manny Corpas as the closer allowed three-time All-Star Brian Fuentes to become a setup man. Taylor Buchholz has had a strong spring, and Ryan Speier, Jose Cappellan and Luis Vizcaino help to make up a solid stock of reserve arms.

What I'm looking forward to seeing

Tulo, Tulo, Tulo. Love that guy. Plus, how does this team follow up last year? And how do opponents react? I can tell you that no one in the New York City area expected Colorado to sweep the Mets and Yankees out of Coors. In recent years, I'd looked at the Mets' annual Denver trip as a chance to win two out of three or three out of four, with the ERAs taking a hit but the averages getting a boost. Now, it's not such an easy W.

LOS ANGELES DODGERS

In general

Joe Torre switches coasts and takes on a new challenge. I wanted to put the Dodgers second just because of him. I considered them for the top spot as well, but I'm scared off by all the innings they want to give to Esteban Loaiza, Chad Billingsley and the unknown in Hiroki Kuroda. I don't like all the at-bats they have tied into Jeff Kent, Nomar Garciaparra and Juan Pierre, either. We want to see the kids play -- James Loney (he will), Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp. Takashi Saito, despite the 1.40 ERA in '07, is considered shaky at 38 and no one ever praised Torre's handling of the bullpen those last few years in the Bronx. Scott Proctor must've felt a slight sense of dread when the Dodgers signed Torre, figuring he had escaped him last year in the Wilson Betemit trade. Hopefully Torre doesn't overuse Jonathan Broxton and ruin him for all of us.

That said, Torre pretty much did it all with the Yankees. He won when he had everything he needed and was able to coast through a season and he managed against injuries and adversity to recover from early deficits to reach the postseason. I'd like to think he can come to L.A. and be a quick fix, but he clearly doesn't have the personnel he did when he arrived in New York.

What I'm looking forward to seeing

Saturday's exhibition game against the Red Sox at the L.A. Coliseum. I love the historical nod to kick off the celebration of the 50th anniversary of the team's move west. Also, can Torre make this a memorable anniversary? Does Andruw Jones bounce back after a tough final season in Atlanta? Do Nomar and Kent have anything left? Can the rotation veterans -- Brad Penny, Derek Lowe and Loaiza -- put together a full season? Penny's had second-half issues in the past and Lowe's in a contract year at 35 (on June 1) after going 12-14 last year, albeit with a decent 3.88 ERA.

SAN DIEGO PADRES

In general

When the minor leaguers show they're ready for the Majors, yet the organization insists on sending them down to start the season, it frustrates us as fans. Imagine what it does to the players. We saw it with B.J. Upton in Tampa, and a bit with Delmon Young, too. Young spoke out about it and Upton took three years to finally stick -- and thrive. So it's maddening to see Chase Headley sent to Triple-A in favor of Jody Gerut in left field in San Diego. It's understandable that the Padres want to see him gain more experience in the outfield (they have Kevin Kouzmanoff at third base, Headley's natural position), but for a team that could use a strong outfield bat, it's a tough decision. San Diego's starting outfield -- Jim Edmonds (when he's in there, and he probably won't be to start the season), Brian Giles and Gerut -- should probably be batting sixth, seventh and eighth in the lineup. It remains to be seen if they actually will, so if they don't, that may not be a good sign. Particularly if Giles is the leadoff batter.

There's more to like in the infield, where Kouzmanoff, shortstop Khalil Green and first baseman Adrian Gonzalez are all capable of 20-30 home runs (or more, in Gonzalez's case) and 90-100 RBIs. Second baseman Tadahito Iguchi brings a little speed and a contact bat to the equation.

But pitching is this team's strength, as it should be in the hurler-friendly confines of Petco Park. A defending Cy Young winner leads the rotation (Jake Peavy), a potential one follows (Chris Young) and a former one is third in the rotation (Greg Maddux). Fourth starter Randy Wolf is now entering his second season after Tommy John surgery (always a benchmark). If Mark Prior reaches the Majors this year -- and stays there -- then what a steal. San Diego is also home to one of the best bullpens in the game, so if you manage to knock out the starter, you're going to have to deal with career saves leader Trevor Hoffman, setup men Heath Bell and Cla Meredith and a group of other reliable arms.

What I'm looking forward to seeing

Does Headley come up to stay? Ever since I heard a minor league report mentioning Gregg Jefferies on a Mets postgame show in 1987, I love watching careers bloom. Does Young win 20? Been a fan of his since 2002, when he pitched for the Hickory Crawdads in the South Atlantic League and a road trip to Lakewood, N.J., just happened to come on the weekend of Princeton's graduation, which meant Young got to attend the ceremonies with his class. Does Hoffman still have it? His struggles in the final week of the 2007 season cost the Padres the Wild Card. They had it sewn up with a win on the final Saturday, but Tony Gwynn Jr. doomed his dad's former team with a triple off Hoffman. And then T-Hoff couldn't keep the Rockies off the board in the Wild Card playoff (whether or not Holliday has yet to touch the plate).

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS

In general

Bye-bye, Barry. No one is sorry to see him go, including, I suspect, team brass. They may be out a few million in revenue from an empty ballpark with a last-place team, but even with the stadium payments to make, they may prefer at least one season of quiet despite the financial issues. Plus, they get to finally see what the future holds as they weed out the past-their-usefulness ("prime" has long passed some of these guys by) holdovers like Ray Durham and Omar Vizquel. Another one of those, Rich Aurilia, is penciled in as the third baseman; Dave Roberts takes up left field with OK speed but little else; and Randy Winn is in right. Bonds' departure brought the team's average age down a bit, but not by much. Oh, and they overpaid for Aaron Rowand, who most certainly was bouyed in 2007 by the extremely favorable conditions of hitting in Citizens Bank Park in a contract year.

There's more to like on the mound, at least after you get past Barry Zito. OK, that's not fair -- it was just one year in San Francisco. But AT&T Park isn't that much more of a hitter's park than Oakland's Coliseum, and he didn't have to face the DH anymore. He shouldn't have been that bad last year. This was also a team on which Matt Cain went 7-16 with a 3.65 ERA -- with Barry Bonds. Now, Bengie Molina is hitting cleanup. Coming off a season with 19 home runs. Yeah.

What I'm looking forward to seeing

Mainly, do they make a trade for a third baseman? That speculation would be more exciting than some of the Giants' games. And the club is high on outfielder Rajai Davis, so does he wrestle a starting gig from someone? After Zito, Cain and Lincecum, I have little interest in the rotation, but with each five-run outing, I'm happier and happier that the Giants opened the bank and scared off the Mets. If Zito was in New York now, Johan Santana wouldn't be. And does Brian Wilson keep the closer's job? I only care for fantasy purposes.