Quick thoughts: 2010 MVP Awards

I didn't post any quick thoughts on the NL MVP vote yesterday because the only thought I had was: Perfect. Nothing jumped out at me at the way it turned out. To me, Joey Votto should have won, and he should have won easily. He did both.

If pressed to find something, I suppose I would question putting Albert Pujols second over Carlos Gonzalez. It's the most valuable player award, not the most prolific player award or the most outstanding player award or the best hitter award. Pujols would be hard to beat in any of those. But the way I would look at an MVP vote if I had one would be which player's absence from his team would have had the biggest effect on that club's season. Clearly, without the season Votto had, the Reds are not NL Central champs.

Of course, without Pujols, the Cardinals do not sniff a pennant race, either. But Pujols had a very similar season to the one he had in his 2009 MVP campaign, yet the Cardinals missed the playoffs in 2010. In other words, I guess I look at it as whether or not they had Pujols, the Cards weren't winning the division this year. (Also, I find it interesting how Pujols has had three seasons -- including the last two -- of exactly 700 plate appearances but has never had any more than that.)

Rk	Player	OPS	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	GDP	SB	BA	OBP	SLG
1	Joey Votto	1.024	150	648	547	106	177	36	2	37	113	91	125	11	16	.324	.424	.600
2	Albert Pujols	1.011	159	700	587	115	183	39	1	42	118	103	76	23	14	.312	.414	.596
3	Carlos Gonzalez	.974	145	636	587	111	197	34	9	34	117	40	135	9	26	.336	.376	.598

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/23/2010.

As for the American League, again I have trouble coming up with an argument in support of anyone else. Had Josh Hamilton played more than 89 games in 2009, the Rangers might have overcome the Angels, or pushed them deeper into September instead of finishing 10 games back (in second place). This wasn't a full season for Hamilton, either, but in 133 games and 571 plate appearances, he had better numbers (except for 30 fewer RBIs) or negligible deficits in many key categories compared to his 2008 breakout All-Star season. The true difference in the Rangers winning the division and previous years may be their pitching, or simply just their pitching philosophy, but for a single most valuable piece of Texas' AL West title, you have to look at Hamilton.

Miguel Cabrera probably deserved more second-place support for another spectacular season. If he hasn't already, he's close to taking the torch from Alex Rodriguez as the American League's best and most reliable player, the guy you can pencil in for 150 games, a .300 average, 30 homers and 100 RBIs at the start of the season and then wait to see when he reaches those numbers and how far past them he goes.

As for Robinson Cano, kudos on a breakout year for the Trenton Thunder alum. If there's anyone on the Yankees who should be getting a six-year, $100 million contract this winter, it's him, and not Derek Jeter (same goes for three years, $45 million). But absent a 50-homer, 140-RBI season or a Triple Crown-contending campaign, it remains hard for a Yankee to garner enough support for the MVP award because the team is loaded, year in and year out. I have no problem with that, because on a team full of All-Stars, how do you determine which one is the most valuable? Take any one of them away for a significant portion of the season, and the Yankees will hardly miss a beat.

I'm trying to say that the MVP Award has to go to a player on a playoff team or contending club every year, but so long as there are singular performers on such teams, it's going to take video-game like numbers from anyone else to garner support. In a year without Hamilton, Cabrera or Cano, Jose Bautista might've been the favorite, or a top-two contender. Maybe a few more than 109 runs or 124 RBIs would've lent more weight to his 54 home runs. Or maybe his .260 batting average pulled him down in voters' eyes (indicating that BA still has more influence than wins do for pitchers in the eyes of those who judge these performances). Or perhaps the cloud of doubt in this post-BALCO age eliminated Bautista in June.

Rk	Player	BA	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
1	Josh Hamilton	.359	133	571	518	95	186	40	3	32	100	43	95	8	1	.411	.633	1.044
2	Miguel Cabrera	.328	150	648	548	111	180	45	1	38	126	89	95	3	3	.420	.622	1.042
5	Robinson Cano	.319	160	696	626	103	200	41	3	29	109	57	77	3	2	.381	.534	.914
42	Jose Bautista	.260	161	683	569	109	148	35	3	54	124	100	116	9	2	.378	.617	.995

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/23/2010.

With the announcement of the final major award for the season, I like to consider this day the final one of the 2010 campaign. We also saw the last managerial opening officially filled today with the Mets' introduction of Terry Collins. (I may get into my thoughts on that later.) Today is the arbitration deadline, which will put a final stamp on the makeup of this winter's free-agent crop, and Thanksgiving is upon us. On the other side of the holiday is December and the Winter Meetings, so soon we'll be looking forward to 2011 in earnest.

Time to turn that Hot Stove up to 11.

Quick thoughts: 2010 AL Cy Young Award

They nailed it. Felix Hernandez excelled this season in just about all pitching categories except one, the increasingly better-understood (or at least weighted) wins, which is reliant on a bit more than just what the starting pitcher does. Is this the year that will define the line in the sand between the winningest pitcher in the league and the best? Zack Greinke last year may have laid the foundation, but this year could be the vote that establishes precedent going forward. Five years ago, Sabathia may have won simply because he won 21 games. Not so this year.

In his favor, Felix had the worst offense behind him since the designated hitter was implemented. He had the worst run support in the American League (and in all of baseball, for that matter) at just 3.75 runs per game. Delving further, check out the bottom of his 2010 game log: Run sport in games started, showing an even lower 3.07 runs per 27 outs (I'm not sure what ESPN uses for run support average; perhaps per start or game, as I worded it). In 19 of his 34 starts, he was given three runs or fewer, including zero in four of them. Price received 5.30 runs per 27 outs, just nine of three runs or fewer and seven games of eight or more runs (Felix had just one). Sabathia got 5.89 runs of support for every 27 outs, had eight games of three or fewer runs and 10 of eight or more. In other words, Felix pitched as many games with three or fewer runs behind him than Price and Sabathia combined.

Despite the scoring on his side, Felix went ahead and threw 249 2/3 innings, completing six games and pacing the AL in WAR (6.0), ERA (2.27), hits per 9 innings (6.993), innings, starts, batters faced (1,001), and a slew of six sabermetric categories: adjusted pitching runs, adjusted pitching wins, base-out runs saved, win probability added, situational wins saved and base-out runs saved (they're at the bottom of this leaders page). I'm sure there's a metric out there that could estimate Felix's record had he had the run support of Price or Sabathia, and I'd love to see what those numbers are.

I know there are those who want to knock Felix for the unbalanced schedule, because he made 14 starts against AL West foes Anaheim, Oakland and Texas. Well, for one thing, all of those teams were better than Seattle. But he also went 7-4 against the Yankees, Twins, Rangers and Red Sox -- three playoff teams and another formidable contender (he didn't face Tampa Bay). He also went 2-1 against the Reds and Padres, an NL division winner and a contender that went to the final day of the season before being eliminated. That's 9-5 against top competition.

Price went 5-3 against similar opponents (Atlanta, Boston, Minnesota, Texas and the Yankees) and Sabathia was 4-2 against Boston, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay and Texas. In fact, the pitcher among these three who benefited most from fattening up on weak competition was Sabathia -- 12-3 against sub-.500 teams, including 10 of his 21 victories against the Orioles (5-1), Royals (2-0) and Mariners (3-0).

I'm still OK with wins as a stat -- there's a bit of a traditionalist in me -- but they should only be a starting point, perhaps no more than the introduction to the book that is a pitcher's season. What would have really been interesting was if Felix couldn't get that last win in his final start of the season -- by the way, he beat Texas, 3-1, with eight innings of one-run ball -- and finished with a .500 record. I wonder if that would've had an impact on the voting.

Player	CG	SHO	W	L	W-L%	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	ERA	ERA+	BF	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
Hernandez	6	1	13	12	.520	249.2	194	80	63	70	232	2.27	174	1001	.212	.273	.312	.585	65
Price	2	1	19	6	.760	208.2	170	71	63	79	188	2.72	145	861	.221	.296	.340	.637	77
Sabathia	2	0	21	7	.750	237.2	209	92	84	74	197	3.18	134	970	.239	.301	.355	.656	75

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/18/2010.

Quick thoughts: 2010 Managers of the Year

Ron Gardenhire won the AL Manager of the Year Award pretty easily, a well-deserved accolade for a guy who just simply wins with whatever he's given. In the NL, however, Bud Black edged out Dusty Baker by a single point. That's crazy.

Voters list three managers on their ballots, with the first-place vote worth five points, second worth three and third worth one. I wonder if the voters think about the point tabulation or just consider the order of the names. Obviously, a first-place vote indicates who that writer thinks deserves the award. But how much thought goes into second vs. third place? I'm curious because had one of the two voters who listed Dusty Baker third decided to put him second, the award would belong to Cincinnati's skipper.

As for the order of finish, it's pretty much how I would've listed them:

Black first, because he guided the Padres to the last day of the season before they were eliminated and no one predicted San Diego to contend for anything this year except the best packages for which to trade Adrian Gonzalez and Heath Bell.

Baker second, because the Reds were a surprise division winner. But he had more to work with than did Black, plus a weaker intradivision schedule against which to manage.

Bruce Bochy third, one first-place vote. Sure, the Giants won the division, but they didn't come out of nowhere to do it. Brian Sabean deserves Executive of the Year for bringing in the pieces, both last offseason (Aubrey Huff) and in-season (Pat Burrell, Cody Ross).

Bobby Cox fourth, one first-place vote. He didn't get the "lifetime achievement"/farewell support some may have expected in finishing this far back. He nearly had the Braves winning the East again until injuries (particularly to Chipper Jones) caught up to them in September.

Charlie Manuel fifth, one first-place vote. I saw some questioning why there wasn't more support for Manuel for Philly winning another division title despite injuries to just about every position player at some point in the season. I suppose it's a fair question, but I'd counter by saying that the Phillies were still more loaded than any team in the NL, so the injuries didn't hurt as much. Plus, they rarely had multiple studs out at the same time. Now, had they still won the division without adding Roy Oswalt, Manuel would've had a stronger case.

Brad Mills sixth, with an inexplicable second-place vote. I don't know how the manager of a 76-86 team gets a vote ahead of either Black or Baker, which he must have to be placed second on one ballot. Hey, if you want to tip your hat to a guy and throw him a bone with a third-place vote, fine by me. But a second-place bone still has a little meat on it. Whatever, it might not be that big a deal. Or it may have cost Baker the award.

And one last tidbit about Black: He becomes just the second former pitcher to win Manager of the Year, and he had a much longer Major League career (398 games) than Tommy Lasorda (26 games) did.

Quick thoughts: 2010 NL Cy Young Award

There's really not much to say about Roy Halladay's unanimous NL Cy Young Award today. He certainly had the numbers. Good for him.

If there was anything that was surprising, maybe it's that it was in fact unanimous. When you look at the numbers Halladay put up along with those of Adam Wainwright and Ubaldo Jimenez, who came in second and third, respectively, they were quite similar.

Player	CG	SHO	W	L	W-L%	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	ERA	HR	BF	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Pit	Str
Halladay	9	4	21	10	.677	250.2	231	74	68	30	219	2.44	24	993	.245	.271	.373	.645	3568	2441
Wainwright	5	2	20	11	.645	230.1	186	68	62	56	213	2.42	15	910	.224	.274	.330	.604	3356	2166
Jimenez	4	2	19	8	.704	221.2	164	73	71	92	214	2.88	10	894	.209	.299	.311	.610	3600	2176

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/16/2010.

Halladay did have four more complete games than Wainwright and twice as many shutouts as either runner up, and the strikeout difference was negligible. Halladay did pitch 20 more innings than either of the others, which brought his strikeouts up with the others' but also inflated his hits and homers (as did pitching in Citizens Bank Bandbox).

But then look deeper. Where I think Halladay secured the award was in walks -- just 30 in 250 innings, and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 7:1. And maybe a certain game in Florida in May, but I don't think you can put too much weight on one game for a season award, particularly when you look at the pitcher who threw a perfect game just a few weeks before -- yes, it takes talent to throw one, but a lot of it has to do with luck and good fortune. But as a tiebreaker, a final piece to put him over the top, I can buy that.

In fact, Halladay's control may be the most impressive stat of the season. Despite so many similar numbers with Wainwright and Jimenez, and despite throwing 20 and 30 more innings than the other two, Halladay was the best one at keeping runners off base -- the surest way to victory. The others allowed fewer hits, had lower batting averages and slugging percentages against them, but Halladay bested them in on-base percentage. He faced 83 more batters than Wainwright and 99 more than Jimenez, threw 212 more pitches than Waino and 32 more than Ubaldo, but it was Doc who threw more strikes by a huge margin: 2,441 to 2,166 (Wainwright) and 2,176 (Jimenez). In fact, only Jimenez (who led the NL), Ryan Dempster (3,596) and Randy Wolf (3,575) threw more pitches this season, but Halladay threw 170 more strikes than the runner-up (Matt Cain). And only Ted Lilly -- who threw 660 fewer pitches than Halladay -- had a better strike percentage, and by one point at that, 69-68 percent.

So if there's one thing we can be sure about, it's that Halladay didn't win it merely because he led the league in wins or was second in strikeouts. When you look deeper, it's clear just how good he was in 2010, mainly because he kept runners off the bases.

Oh, and those 24 homers Halladay gave up? Nineteen were solo shots ... and the other five were two-run jobs.

Quick thoughts: 2010 Rookies of the Year

Kudos to Buster Posey and Neftali Feliz -- and to the Baseball Writers Association of America members who voted them the 2010 Rookies of the Year. I think they got it right (well, except for the two who each left one of them off his ballot).

I'm no Heyward hater, at least other than the fact that as a Mets fan, it's hard to like the Braves. I can certainly appreciate his talent, and he hasn't had a chance yet to take Atlanta's Mets Killer torch from Chipper. At the start of the season, I was among those who figured the NL ROY was his to lose, but even that phrasing isn't fair to him. He had some injuries that supressed his numbers a bit, and in the end even the fact that he was in the lineup from Opening Day couldn't keep him from fending off Posey. The Giants catcher put up numbers just as good or better than Heyward in a lot of the key categories and did a fine job handling a top-of-the-line pitching staff in a tight pennant race, right down to the final day of the season. Just as Alex Rodriguez's defense ostensibly pushed him over the top against David Ortiz for the AL MVP a few years back, I think Posey's defense played a part in this award. Good for him, even if he is a Seminole.

Player	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	SF	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jason Heyward	142	623	520	83	144	29	5	18	72	91	2	128	10	2	11	6	.277	.393	.456	.849
Buster Posey	108	443	406	58	124	23	2	18	67	30	5	55	4	3	0	2	.305	.357	.505	.862

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/16/2010.

Awards put a bow on 2009

MLB's awards season wrapped up today in fitting fashion with Albert Pujols' unanimous selection as NL MVP, making him just the 10th player in history to win the award three times. As if he needed this to make his case, it essentially secures his place in Cooperstown since every three-time winner who is eligible has been enshrined.

But now that the awards are out, the 2009 season is complete. Yankee fans can continue shopping for Christmas, but the rest of us can put a bow on '09 and stash it on the shelf -- or bury it in the backyard for us Mets fans. Before we turn our focus completely to 2010 with free agency fully open and the Winter Meetings in a couple of weeks, I want to touch on some issues I have with the awards process or certain votes this year, in no particular order.

How, with a unanimous winner, does anyone give votes to another player on the same team? I can see how you're putting Pujols first, saying you believe he was the most valuable player in the league to his team. But how do you say Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Matt Holliday (a midseason acquisition at that) and Yadier Molina also had some level of "most" valuable impact to the Cardinals? All of those players received votes. In the American League, after most valuable Joe Mauer, several other Twins and even more Yankees were more-valuable-than-most-but-not-as-valuable-as-Joe.

As for that Jeremy Affeldt vote in the NL? One the one hand, I like it as a throwaway vote, a statement that 10 deep is a bit much when determining the most valuable player in the league. However, the guy is nuts, no matter how he tries to defend it.

The Gold Glove Awards are MLB's equivalent of the college football coaches poll. If you weren't aware, the Gold Glove Awards are voted on by the league's managers and coaches, who aren't allowed to vote for players on their own teams. But just as their counterparts in the NCAA do, MLB's field staff members tend to base their votes more on reputation than actual on-field performance. You also have to think that how good a player is offensively, relative to his positional peers, plays a small part, too, even if only subconsciously. The process should've been revamped in 1999 when Rafael Palmeiro won in the American League despite only playing 28 games at first base that year. The rest of his appearances came at designated hitter -- for which he won the Silver Slugger Award. That's right: he won two position-specific awards at different positions in the same season.

And while Ryan Zimmerman is a deserving winner and a fine fielder, did he win on his own, or did David Wright's down season offensively play a part? Maybe it's just the opposite of last year's situation. Has Jimmy Rollins won each of the last three years for his fielding alone, or has his leadoff ability and his mouth boosted his profile, the way it did with the 2007 MVP? While 2009 was in fact Rollins' best of the three with the glove, I'm not sure it was as good as Troy Tulowitzki's season, nor was it in 2007. Tulo's injury in 2008 make it tougher to make a case for him over Rollins, but it may be there.

My other issue with the Gold Glove Awards is that they are supposed to be position-specific, yet they do not differentiate the outfield positions. Not every outfielder can play all three positions. Guys who play right field don't have the speed for center, and guys who play left don't have the arm for right or the speed for either other slot. Five of the six outfield winners in the two leagues this year are center fielders, as they were in 2008 -- and even then, Ichiro played 69 games in center. Divide up the outfield into left fielders, center fielders and right fielders. Let's talk about who the best left fielder is in the National League, rather than who are the three best outfielders out of them all.

Assuming he started from the top and worked down in order, a reporter in Seattle actually managed to write in Miguel Cabrera's name before Joe Mauer's. Regardless of the statistical breakdowns, how did he miss the final two weeks of the season, when Mauer -- without the help of his biggest sidekick in the lineup, Justin Morneau -- led the Twins past Cabrera's Tigers to win the AL Central? And even when Mauer was taking his 0-fers, he was catching the pitching staff and had as much of an impact -- if not more -- on the Twins' 17-4 run to end the season as any player and manager Ron Gardenhire.

I have no arguments with either Cy Young winner -- Kansas City's Zack Greinke and San Francisco's Tim Lincecum -- but I see Keith Olbermann's point about how it's a bit moronic that Lincecum won despite not getting the most first-place votes.

The Rookie of the Year races in both leagues were wide open and a suspensful kickoff to the Baseball Writers Association of America awards, but I'm surprised Atlanta's Tommy Hanson didn't have more support. I wonder what kind of numbers Andrew McCutchen would've put up with a full season in Pittsburgh. Or Garrett Jones for that matter.

And finally, when you leave it to the fans to vote, is there any doubt Derek Jeter is going to win the Hank Aaron Award as the American League's best offensive player over Mauer? When it comes to voting and online presence, both in the U.S. and around the world, you're going to find exponentially more Yankees fans than Twins fans.

But statistically, Mauer was simply a better hitter in 2009. Even with 15 fewer games, Mauer surpassed Jeter in doubles, homers, RBIs, total bases and walks. The RBIs are in part because Mauer hits in the heart of the Twins' order while Jeter is the Yanks' leadoff hitter (that also explains the difference in runs scored), but the bottom of New York's lineup -- which would be the runners on base for Jeter -- is better than most teams' bottom of the order.

Jeter's only significant wins over Mauer were in runs and hits, yet Mauer trounced him in batting average, OBP and slugging percentage. And to compare those two categories, runs and hits, Jeter scored .699 runs per game (107 runs in his 153 games) but Mauer was right behind him with .681 RPG. Jeter had 1.385 hits per game (212 hits in 153 games), Mauer 1.384 (191 in 138 games). Had Mauer kept those paces in 15 more games to match Jeter at 153, he'd have 211.7 hits and 104.2 runs.