Quick thoughts: 2010 Rookies of the Year

Kudos to Buster Posey and Neftali Feliz -- and to the Baseball Writers Association of America members who voted them the 2010 Rookies of the Year. I think they got it right (well, except for the two who each left one of them off his ballot).

I'm no Heyward hater, at least other than the fact that as a Mets fan, it's hard to like the Braves. I can certainly appreciate his talent, and he hasn't had a chance yet to take Atlanta's Mets Killer torch from Chipper. At the start of the season, I was among those who figured the NL ROY was his to lose, but even that phrasing isn't fair to him. He had some injuries that supressed his numbers a bit, and in the end even the fact that he was in the lineup from Opening Day couldn't keep him from fending off Posey. The Giants catcher put up numbers just as good or better than Heyward in a lot of the key categories and did a fine job handling a top-of-the-line pitching staff in a tight pennant race, right down to the final day of the season. Just as Alex Rodriguez's defense ostensibly pushed him over the top against David Ortiz for the AL MVP a few years back, I think Posey's defense played a part in this award. Good for him, even if he is a Seminole.

Player	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	SF	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jason Heyward	142	623	520	83	144	29	5	18	72	91	2	128	10	2	11	6	.277	.393	.456	.849
Buster Posey	108	443	406	58	124	23	2	18	67	30	5	55	4	3	0	2	.305	.357	.505	.862

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/16/2010.

Verlander expected, but Ramirez a surprise ROY

Justin Verlander as American League Rookie of the Year wasn't too surprising -- as the margin of victory showed -- but Hanley Ramirez's NL ROY was quite the upset. Sure, he was considered a contender, but that description usually came with a caveat along the lines of "after Dan Uggla and Ryan Zimmerman."

Clearly, Ramirez and Uggla did not draw too many votes from one another as teammates, since both finished in the top three. But Ramirez's four-point victory over Washington's Ryan Zimmerman was the smallest margin in the 26 years that the Baseball Writers Association of America has used the 5-3-1 scoring system for the postseason awards.

This outcome shows just how interesting this system is. Two writers in each National League city (or American League, for AL awards) submit ballots on which they name, in order, their top three candidates. First-place votes get five points, second place nets three and third place garners one. Zimmerman, who had 101 points, was named on 29 of the 32 ballots -- 10 in first place, 16 in second and three in third. Ramirez, though, earned his 105 points on just 27 ballots -- 14 first place, 11 second and two third. So looking at it another way, that means 29 of 32 writers thought Zimmerman was one of the three best rookies in the National League in 2006, but only 27 of 32 thought Ramirez was among the top three. It's kind of like Al Gore winning the overall popular vote for president in 2000, but George Bush getting the election based on the point-scoring system, aka the Electoral College.

As for the stats...

	AVG	R	2B	HR	RBI	SB	OBP	SLG	OPS	F.Pct.
Ramirez	.292	119	46	17	59	51	.353	.480	.833	.963
Zimmerman	.287	84	47	20	110	11	.351	.471	.822	.965

Pretty comparable, with Ramirez's runs close to making up for the difference in RBIs. The shortstop's 11 triples to Zimmerman's three account for the difference in slugging.

I think, in the end, it was a toss-up. It came down to a leadoff hitter vs. a three-hole hitter, an emerging power guy who drives in runs vs. a speedy leadoff guy (with power) who scores them. The two should be NL All-Star reserves for years to come.

Rookie of the Year Awards upon us

I've given up the New Jersey minor league blog I've been attempting to write for NJ.com, so hopefully I'll have more energy and inspiration to write here.

We shall see.

But the postseason awards are upon us -- the Rookies of the Year will be announced tomorrow. To me, one seems obvious, the other an interesting situation.

First, the obvious...

American League Rookie of the Year

At different points this season, there were what seemed to be clear frontrunners. First there was Jonathan Papelbon, who shot out of the gate with a nearly perfect April and cruised for a few months from there. But he tired, then got hurt and didn't finish September. He barely finished August, and his fall coincided with Boston's.

Then came Francisco Liriano, who was moved from the Twins' bullpen to the rotation and couldn't seem to lose. Overlapping his emergence was another that was just as expected: that of Jered Weaver, who tied an AL record by winning his first nine decisions (or starts; I'm not positive which). Liriano, though, developed an elbow problem, had to take himself out of a September start, and underwent Tommy John surgery last week and won't be seen on a mound again until spring training in 2008. Weaver pitched well enough, but struggled a little in his final starts, though that wouldn't have been enough to take the award away from him on its own.

But what earns Detroit's Justin Verlander the recognition is his steadiness and consistency throughout the season. The hard-throwing right-hander was pretty consistent each month, winning at least two games per month and losing more than two in a month only once. The only month in which he didn't make at least five starts was July, when he was given two weeks off around the All-Star break to save his arm for the stretch run -- which proved to be a very wise move.

This should be a pretty easy win for Verlander, with Liriano, Papelbon and Weaver following him in that order.

National League Rookie of the Year

Does the quietly solid and only sometimes spectacular player win it, or does the out-of-nowhere guy who made a big splash get it? Or does the latter player's team hurt his chances?

Second guy first. Of all the rookies on the Marlins -- I believe they used 33 this year, 28 of whom were regular contributors -- Dan Uggla was the most spectacular and the most consistent. He also got all the pub, becoming the first Rule 5 draft pick to make an All-Star team in his rookie season. Uggla seemed to be the Marlins rookie who caught on the quickest, while the other solid hitter with a case -- Hanley Ramirez -- started slowly, then came on strong over the balance of the season. But will Uggla, Ramirez and pitchers such as Josh Johnson draw vote from one another? That's a very strong possibility.

So I think Washington's Ryan Zimmerman will take it. Z was the only rookie this season to drive in more than 100 runs, and he made highlight reels with more than a few game-winning walk-off hits, including a walk-off two-run homer to beat the Yankees in June. I think Zimmerman edges out Uggla for this one.

I'll get to the other races as the week goes on.

Six-for-six on awards picks.

Six for six. That'd be a pretty good day at the plate. It's also not a bad showing in predicting the 2005 Baseball Writers' Association of America awards.

Admittedly, the two toughest to predict will be announced next week: American League Most Valuable Player on Monday and the NL version on Tuesday. But though I was confident in my selections for American and National League Rookies of the Year, I don't think they were slam dunks.

Now, as far as today's announcement of Chris Carpenter as the NL Cy Young winner, I think we see just how much two things matter in the minds of the writers: total wins and team wins. Both Cy Young winners topped 20 wins and pitched for division champions.

As for the Carpenter vs. Dontrelle Willis debate, the Marlins left-hander may have won one more game with an ERA .20 lower than Carpenter's figure, but there were four other significant categories in which Carpenter had clearly better numbers: winning percentage (.808-.688), strikeout-to-walk ratio (4:18-2:93), batting average against (.231-.243) and WHIP (1.06-1.13). As for the last one, say what you want about fantasy baseball stats, but walks plus hits divided by innings pitched is not only a good indication of a pitcher's average inning-by-inning effectiveness, but also a figure that has, more and more, been cited in mainstream baseball reporting.

I just took ESPN.com's poll on the awards and find it interesting that the top three results, at least as of this posting, reflect the actual voting of the BBWAA for AL Cy Young, NY Cy Young and AL Manager. And the NL Manager results only differed in that the writers think more of Tony La Russa's second straight 100-win season and 11-game division runaway than the fans do. They, as I was, were more impressed with Phil Garner's turnaround of the Astros' season (I picked him to be second; he was actually third). SportsNation also gave Frank Robinson heavy props for getting the Nationals off to a fast start, giving him enough votes to rank third, ahead of LaRussa. Or maybe the nation just finds Tony LaRussa annoying.

Even though four of the six awards in the poll have been announced, ESPN continues to run the poll and ask for America's opinion. ("America voted ...") Because the poll is apparently asking the country whom they think should win the award as a fan's opinion rather than a question of how they think the awards will actually turn out, it should remain open for votes. But if there are people out there voting after the fact and selecting the actual winners where that applies, that will obviously skew the results a little bit. But with 37,521 votes cast as of 2:43 p.m. ET (about 2,000 more than were posted 10 minutes earlier), I think the sample size will balance out those votes that are influenced by the announcements already made.

Now we're down to just two. After the MVP annoucements next week, we'll once and for all put the 2005 season behind us and, with the Winter Meetings coming up in early December, start to turn our attention full-bore to 2006.

Handing out the hardware

I didn't make my awards picks until November last year, but my intentions this year were to get them done as early into the postseason, just as the sportswriters who vote on the awards actually do. Granted, the voters have about 44 hours from the end of Sunday's games until the start of the first Division Series games -- or perhaps less time -- to get their votes in.

Last year, I was pretty accurate. Eight-for-eight, though it wasn't too hard. The races weren't all that close, with the exception of NL ROY. I hedged, but went with Jason Bay in the end in the closest voting of all the players' awards, with Khalil Greene getting seven first-place votes and finishing 38 points behind Bay. Only AL Manager of the Year was a closer vote, with Ron Gardenhire getting 11 first-place votes and finishing 10 points behind Buck Showalter; and only Randy Johnson's eight first-place votes in the NL Cy Young race were more than Greene's among second-place players. But Roger Clemens still won the award by 43 points over Johnson.

This year, we've got a few clear winners, but certainly more close races sure to cause debate. Let's get the easy ones out of the way.

AL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
There was a bit of a late-season push for Yankees second baseman Robinson Cano, but he might not even make the top three. It could be a close race among Cano (.297, 78 R, 34 2B, 14 HR, 62 RBI), Tampa Bay's Jonny Gomes (.282, 61 R, 13 2B, 6 3B, 21 HR, 54 RBI) and Chicago's Tadahito Iguchi (.278, 74 R, 25 2B, 6 3B, 15 HR, 71 RBI, 15 SB) -- for second place.

I think A's closer Huston Street (5-1, 1.72 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 23 SV, 72:26 SO:BB ratio, .194 BAA) continues Oakland's hold on AL ROY awards. Street stepped in and performed like a veteran closer -- something that even veteran relievers can have trouble doing. He blew just four saves (all before the All-Star break, and he got the win after one of them) and lost his only game way back on April 20. As the closer, he was out there on his own and came through. This one should be set, but something tells me that because I decided to list these in order of debate and put this one first, it will be the first to prove me wrong.

NL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
The winner of this one didn't even occur to me until a friend told me who his pick was. Then I looked at the numbers, and it became clear. First off, there are no pitchers who can win. Zach Duke's 14 starts (8-2, 1.81 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 58:23 K:BB ratio, .253 BAA) are probably about six short of what could have earned him serious attention. Among the hitters, third baseman Garret Atkins (.287, 61 R, 31 2B, 13 HR, 89 RBI) moved ahead of shortstop Clint Barmes (.289, 55 R, 19 2B, 10 HR, 46 RBI, 6 SB in just 81 G and 350 AB) as the Rockies' potential winner. Washington's Ryan Church (.287, 41 R, 15 2B, 9 HR, 42 RBI) was one of my preseason candidates, but injuries and then Preston Wilson ate into his playing time.

Atlanta's Jeff Francoeur (.300, 41 R, 20 2B, 14 HR, 45 RBI in 257 AB in 70 G, not to mention 13 assists) was getting a lot of press for the award in August and had a solid start to his career, but I think he comes in second. Houston leadoff hitter Willy Taveras (.291, 82 R, 13 2B, 4 3B, 3 HR, 29 RBI, 34 SB) will be up there, but it will be a mid-season callup who will take home the hardware. In just 310 at bats in 88 games, Philadelphia's Ryan Howard hit .288 with 52 R, 17 2B, 2 3B, 22 HR and 63 RBI. He led all rookies with those home runs, 10 of which came in September -- a rookie record for the month -- and brought the Phillies back into the race after losing slugging first baseman Jim Thome for the season.

NL MANAGER OF THE YEAR
It's not like Bobby Cox has won 14 straight division titles with the same team. Maybe those first four or five in the 90s all came with the nucleus of Smoltz-Maddux-Glavine-Chipper-Lopez, but there were often other key cogs that were changed (David Justice, Terry Pendleton, Kenny Lofton, Walt Weiss, etc.). And he certainly hasn't done it with the payrolls of the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets or Dodgers.

So until some team knocks the Braves out of the top spot in the NL East -- or even out of the playoffs -- this award is probably his. And when the Braves are dethroned, that team's manager will probably inherit the hardware. The true test is picking second place, which should go to Phil Garner. Houston was dreadful the first 45 games (15-30) without Lance Berkman for 22 of them and with a still-hobbled, .179-hitting Berkman for the other half of them. But Garner guided the 'Stros back to the playoffs, the first back-to-back wild-card winners in the NL since the 1999-2000 Mets.

Well, that's that. So much for the "easy" ones. Now, in ascending order of debate, as I see them ...

AL MANAGER OF THE YEAR
I think despite Chicago's collapse from a 15-game lead on Aug. 1 to a 1 1/2-game lead in mid-September, Ozzie Guillen still wins it. He got the White Sox off to a fast start and the team never had to look back. They were in control the whole way, and despite some headwinds, forged on to finish the job. Cleveland's Eric Wedge -- whose team made the White Sox faithful sweat -- deserves it too, but there were a lot of people who predicted the Indians would make a run this year with their young nucleus. I can't go back and look at everyone's preseason predictions, but I'd guess there were even a few more pundits in favor of the Indians being competitive than there were calling for the White Sox to unseat the Twins. After 99 wins and being the frontrunner all season, Guillen wins it.

AL CY YOUNG
Well, your ERA leader was Kevin Millwood (2.86), but he went 9-11. Last year's winner, Johan Santana, was second (2.87, plus 0.97 WHIP, 16-7 record, 238:45 K:BB ratio, .210 BAA) followed by Mark Buehrle (3.12, 1.18 WHIP, 16-8, 149:40). At the All-Star break, it was Buehrle's to lose (10-3, 2.58 ERA), and I think he did. We know the voters are stat-heads, and this award isn't for most valuable pitcher (otherwise, Mariano Rivera's got a much stronger case; however, I'm sure some voters look at it as MVP, with the "p" standing for "pitcher"). So after ERA, if we turn to strikeouts, Santana led the league with only Randy Johnson (211) also breaking 200. But with a 3.79 ERA and 17-8 record, his case isn't stronger than Santana's.

Then there are wins, and in leading the league with 21, Bartolo Colon had three more than any other starter (Jon Garland and Cliff Lee). Three more wins over 33 starts is close to winning the 100-meter dash by a full second -- it's a runaway. Colon went 21-8 with a 3.48 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, .254 BAA and 157:43 SO:BB ratio.

NL MVP
For the first time since 1999, it won't be a San Francisco Giant winning this award. Before Barry Bonds and Victor Conte won the award from 2001-2004, Jeff Kent won it. In '99, Chipper Jones' stellar September clinched it for him as the Braves pulled away from the Mets. The same thing could happen, and Chipper could play a part, only September wasn't the month that Andruw Jones may have clinched the award. It was June.

First, let's look at the numbers between Jones and his only competition, Albert Pujols. Since 2001, when Pujols won Rookie of the Year and finished fourth in the MVP voting, he's finished second, second and third (to Bonds and Adrian Beltre) up through last year. With Bonds out of the picture, this looked like Albert's opportunity. The only thing I see keeping it from him this time is that the Cardinals were too good. Certainly better than the Braves. Head-to-head, the numbers look like this:

AVERAGE: Pujols .330-.263
HITS: Pujols 195-154
RUNS: Pujols 129-95
EXTRA-BASE HITS: Pujols 81-77
HOME RUNS: Jones 51-41
RBI: Jones 128-117
OPS: Pujols 1.039-.922

In my heart, I want Pujols to win it. He's been so good for four years and finished second twice to a big-headed freak and his team of trainers and crooks. With the injuries to Larry Walker, Reggie Sanders and especially Scott Rolen, the lineup in St. Louis wasn't as formidable as it was expected to be. This isn't Alex Rodriguez in the Yankees' lineup or David Ortiz in Boston. Take Pujols out of the Cardinals' lineup this year, and I don't know if they do win that division. But the Cardinals also had a strong pitching staff with a Cy Young candidate and built a big lead early in the summer. That wasn't the case in Atlanta, which lost Chipper Jones and three starting pitchers in June -- which also happened to be Andruw Jones' best month (.317, 18 R, 13 HR, 26 RBI, 1.151 OPS) as the Braves made their run. Three starters out, no Chipper, a host of rookies and Andruw carried Atlanta. It kills me to say it, but I think that's what the voters will remember. Andruw wins it.

NL CY YOUNG
Wooo, doggie. This debate has been raging since July, with each of three pitchers considered the front-runner. Two of them led their teams to the playoffs; the other led his to the brink. But how to sort them out? First, the overall stats:

CHRIS CARPENTER, STL: 21-5, 2.83 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, .231 BAA, 4.18 SO:BB
ROGER CLEMENS, HOU: 13-8, 1.87 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, .198 BAA, 2.76 SO:BB
DONTRELLE WILLIS, FLA: 22-10, 2.63 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, .243 BAA, 2.93 SO:BB

But will the voters look at the overall numbers, or remember what happened more recently? Over the last month of the season, they looked like this:

CHRIS CARPENTER, STL: 1-1, 6.91 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, .328 BAA, 3.14 SO:BB in only 28 2/3 innings
ROGER CLEMENS, HOU: 2-2, 4.50 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, .303 BAA, 1.14 SO:BB in 22 innings
DONTRELLE WILLIS, FLA: 3-2, 3.00 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, .244 BAA, 3.00 SO:BB in a league-leading 42 innings

Well, Willis certainly had the best finish to the season, when his team needed him the most. The Astros needed Clemens too, and he faltered, first with a hamstring tweak, then -- and no one can fault him for this -- dealing with the death of his mother (though he pitched that night and pitched superbly). Carpenter had the benefit of pitching with the Cardinals comfortably ahead, and then after they'd clinched as a tune-up for the playoffs.

As good as Clemens' peripheral stats were, I think the writers will go with Carpenter. It's going to be a close one, a tough one, but that's my guess.

AL MVP
It's not just that this is a tight debate, a close race, a heated argument about two sluggers -- it's, yet again, Red Sox and Yankees. The numbers are tight, and those in the Alex Rodriguez camp say the fact that he plays defense puts him over the top, which is fine. It's hard to defend Ortiz's case when all he does is hit and sit on the bench. Again, we'll start with the season stats:

GAMES: A-Rod 162-159
AVERAGE: A-Rod .321-.300
HITS: A-Rod 194-180
RUNS: A-Rod 124-119
EXTRA-BASE HITS: Ortiz 88-78
HR: A-Rod 48-47
RBI: Ortiz 148-130
WALKS (Intentional): Ortiz 102 (9)-91 (8)
STRIKEOUTS: Ortiz 124-139
OPS: A-Rod 1.031-1.001

But let's look at some splits. A-Rod led the AL in at bats with runners in scoring position, with 186; Ortiz had 162. Ortiz hit .352 to A-Rod's .290, getting three more hits (57-54) and four more extra-base hits (22-18) in 24 fewer at bats. Big Papi drove in 92 runs to A-Rod's 77 and walked 40 times while striking out just 23 while A-Rod walked 34 times and whiffed 52.

Paring it down even more, we turn to each player's performance in the late innings of close games. Ortiz came to bat 56 such times to A-Rod's 47, which worked out well for Boston because he came through. He delivered 12 extra-base hits (3 2B, 9 HR) to A-Rod's 6 (4 2B, 2 HR) and 20 RBI to A-Rod's 7. Papi hit .286 to Rodriguez's .255 and had a decided OPS margin of 1.224-.814. Ortiz also evened out his walks and strikeouts (11 each) while Rodriguez fanned twice as often (14) as he tossed the bat and jogged to first (six).

[Some more numbers were just brought to my attention by the aforementioned -- though not named -- friend, Will, who happens to be a Yankee fan: A-Rod's OPS splits with the bases empty/ runners on/ RISP are 1.106/.957/.894. Ortiz's are .993/1.006/1.043. With runners in scoring position and two outs, A-Rod's OPS is .940; Ortiz's 1.226.]

As for self-promotion -- or at least "company" promotion -- Boston's game notes for Sunday's finale pointed out that: 19 of Papi's HR came in the seventh inning or later; he hit 22 HR in his last 50 (then 51, after the finale) games and 16 HR in his last 35 (36); and slugged a club-record 11 in September.

Finally, 20 of Ortiz's 47 home runs either tied the game or gave Boston the lead. That's clutch. That's valuable. Take Ortiz out of Boston's lineup, and it's significantly deflated despite Johnny Damon, Manny Ramirez and Jason Varitek. Lose Rodriguez from the Yankees'? You've still got Derek Jeter, Gary Sheffield, Hideki Matsui, Jorge Posada and, to a lesser extent, a resurgent Jason Giambi.

Some will say that A-Rod wasn't the most valuable player on his team (Mariano Rivera was more important) while others will counter with Ortiz's mere 10 games in the field. I think the voters will take into account Rodriguez's fielding -- and perhaps base stealing -- and name him the MVP. But because of the splits, my vote would go to Ortiz. It remains to be seen if the voters looked that deeply into the numbers.

* * *
Not that it will mean anything, but some may find this interesting: The last time three Yankees eclipsed 110 RBI in the same season was 1938 when Joe DiMaggio (140), Bill Dickey (115) and Lou Gehrig (114) did so. Following A-Rod's 130 this year were Sheffield's 123 and Matsui's 116. In 1938, none of those three Yankees won the MVP. Dickey finished second with three first-place votes and 196 points, 109 behind the winner. DiMaggio was sixth in the voting and Gehrig 19th.

The winner in '38? Boston's Jimmie Foxx.

Postseason awards picks

In a few hours, we'll learn the first of this season's award winners, and since I've been lazy and couldn't come up with a real analysis, here's the quick version:

NL MVP
I think Barry Bonds will win, yet again. But I think it should be Adrian Beltre. The simple argument/formula is take the player away from his team, and where would they be? Yes, if you take Bonds off the Giants, they're not good at all. They might be lucky to win 75 games. But the same can be said of Beltre. In 2003, the Dodgers made an unexpected run at the postseason on the strength of their pitching. They couldn't hit for anything. They needed an offensive upgrade, and their only key offseason acquisition was Juan Encarnacion, until Milton Bradley came over at the end of spring training. But the key to the division title was Beltre, a young player whom the Dodgers expected to become a superstar at least three years ago. He's been drafted in so many fantasy leagues with those expectations and been dropped y Memorial Day every year. Not this time. Granted, fantasy is far from reality, but Beltre was the most valuable player this year. I'm convinced that if major league managers had some guts and pitched to him more, he wouldn't have such gaudy numbers. For one, he wouldn't have a .680 on base percentage. His numbers are tainted in so many ways.

NL Cy Young
For the most part, I'm not a fan of the guy, but how can Roger Clemens not win it? Randy Johnson just didn't have the won-loss record, Jason Schmidt faded over the season's final six weeks and Carl Pavano didn't do enough in the final stretch to seal the award. Clemens, on the other hand, looked like his classic, dominating self for much of the season and led the Astros to the postseason. But the best part, from my perspective, is that if he had remained with the Yankees, they almost certainly would have reached the World Series, probably even won it.

NL Rookie of the Year
This one seems like a two-horse race. Those who dig deeper argue for San Diego shortstop Khalil Greene, whose offensive numbers are solid, but far from spectacular. His defense, however, is stellar and he looks like a veteran already. The other half generally falls in the camp of Pirates outfielder Jason Bay, who has the flashier home run and power numbers that Greene lacks. Bay, however, doesn't have the advantage of playing on a contender and has less support overall in his lineup. My vote would be for Bay because he seemed, to me, like the most outstanding rookie; I think his offensive numbers were impressive enough to outrank Greene's defensive contributions, though there is something to be said for a complete, all-around player. I'm talking out of both sides of my mouth here. End of story: I'm picking Bay, but I could see Greene getting it easily and I think it will be this year's closest award.

NL Manager of the Year
Bobby Cox. Perhaps for the first time since 1991, most pundits expected someone other than the Braves to win the NL East. I'm sure some of the Braves themselves thought so too. But after the games were played, the same team could be found atop the division. Really though, next year is the year for someone else.

AL MVP
This one will probably be close as well, coming down to Vladimir Guerrero, Gary Sheffield and Manny Ramirez. I'm going with Vlad. While Anaheim got a lot of headlines for all its offseason pickups, the strong-armed right fielder became the heart of the team and performed better than what was expected of him. He was arguably the only Angels pickup to do so. Bartolo Colon was dreadful for a good stretch and while Jose Guillen certainly showed he can hit, his end-of-season benching showed he's also, clearly, a head case. It was Guerrero who performed consistently throughout the season and who picked up the slack for the injured Garret Anderson and Troy Glaus. It's always tough with the Yankees, because when you apply the "if you take him out of the team's lineup" test, they usually have enough to compensate for the loss of any one player. Sheffield certainly did a lot for the Yanks, but even without him, they still had Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Hideki Matsui and Jorge Posada. And for much of the season, their pitching wasn't as bad as it became in the postseason, so they had the arms to make up for a loss at the plate. As for Manny, he falls into the same predicament Sheffield's in: a lineup that's too good.

AL Cy Young
Curt Schilling will be second. Johan Santana had the better numbers overall, and this award is a bit more straightforward. It's not which pitcher was most valuable to his team, it's which pitcher was the best. I'm sure Schilling got the hardware he wanted anyway.

AL Rookie of the Year
I think it goes to Bobby Crosby. The A's let Miguel Tejada leave because they thought Crosby was ready to be a big-league shortstop. Turns out they knew what they were talking about. Whether or not that decision meant the difference between first place and second place is another matter. (I happen to think it wasn't; thinking Arthur Rhodes could be your closer was much worse.)

AL Manager of the Year
Buck Showalter. How good would the Yankees be next year if they traded Rodriguez this winter? Look at the history: the 2000 Mariners with A-Rod were 91-71 and won the wild card. In 2001 they went 116-46, setting the AL record for most wins in a season, and won the division. In 2003, the Rangers (with A-Rod) went 71-91. This year they wre 89-73 and in the AL West race until the final two weeks, even without anything resembling a competitive pitching rotation. Anyway, Showalter pulled off the managing feat of this millenium so far. And be sure to put those World Series bets down on the Rangers the year after Buck leaves. His previous two jobs ended in 1995 with the Yankees and in 2000 with the Diamondbacks.