Quick thoughts: 2010 MVP Awards

I didn't post any quick thoughts on the NL MVP vote yesterday because the only thought I had was: Perfect. Nothing jumped out at me at the way it turned out. To me, Joey Votto should have won, and he should have won easily. He did both.

If pressed to find something, I suppose I would question putting Albert Pujols second over Carlos Gonzalez. It's the most valuable player award, not the most prolific player award or the most outstanding player award or the best hitter award. Pujols would be hard to beat in any of those. But the way I would look at an MVP vote if I had one would be which player's absence from his team would have had the biggest effect on that club's season. Clearly, without the season Votto had, the Reds are not NL Central champs.

Of course, without Pujols, the Cardinals do not sniff a pennant race, either. But Pujols had a very similar season to the one he had in his 2009 MVP campaign, yet the Cardinals missed the playoffs in 2010. In other words, I guess I look at it as whether or not they had Pujols, the Cards weren't winning the division this year. (Also, I find it interesting how Pujols has had three seasons -- including the last two -- of exactly 700 plate appearances but has never had any more than that.)

Rk	Player	OPS	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	GDP	SB	BA	OBP	SLG
1	Joey Votto	1.024	150	648	547	106	177	36	2	37	113	91	125	11	16	.324	.424	.600
2	Albert Pujols	1.011	159	700	587	115	183	39	1	42	118	103	76	23	14	.312	.414	.596
3	Carlos Gonzalez	.974	145	636	587	111	197	34	9	34	117	40	135	9	26	.336	.376	.598

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/23/2010.

As for the American League, again I have trouble coming up with an argument in support of anyone else. Had Josh Hamilton played more than 89 games in 2009, the Rangers might have overcome the Angels, or pushed them deeper into September instead of finishing 10 games back (in second place). This wasn't a full season for Hamilton, either, but in 133 games and 571 plate appearances, he had better numbers (except for 30 fewer RBIs) or negligible deficits in many key categories compared to his 2008 breakout All-Star season. The true difference in the Rangers winning the division and previous years may be their pitching, or simply just their pitching philosophy, but for a single most valuable piece of Texas' AL West title, you have to look at Hamilton.

Miguel Cabrera probably deserved more second-place support for another spectacular season. If he hasn't already, he's close to taking the torch from Alex Rodriguez as the American League's best and most reliable player, the guy you can pencil in for 150 games, a .300 average, 30 homers and 100 RBIs at the start of the season and then wait to see when he reaches those numbers and how far past them he goes.

As for Robinson Cano, kudos on a breakout year for the Trenton Thunder alum. If there's anyone on the Yankees who should be getting a six-year, $100 million contract this winter, it's him, and not Derek Jeter (same goes for three years, $45 million). But absent a 50-homer, 140-RBI season or a Triple Crown-contending campaign, it remains hard for a Yankee to garner enough support for the MVP award because the team is loaded, year in and year out. I have no problem with that, because on a team full of All-Stars, how do you determine which one is the most valuable? Take any one of them away for a significant portion of the season, and the Yankees will hardly miss a beat.

I'm trying to say that the MVP Award has to go to a player on a playoff team or contending club every year, but so long as there are singular performers on such teams, it's going to take video-game like numbers from anyone else to garner support. In a year without Hamilton, Cabrera or Cano, Jose Bautista might've been the favorite, or a top-two contender. Maybe a few more than 109 runs or 124 RBIs would've lent more weight to his 54 home runs. Or maybe his .260 batting average pulled him down in voters' eyes (indicating that BA still has more influence than wins do for pitchers in the eyes of those who judge these performances). Or perhaps the cloud of doubt in this post-BALCO age eliminated Bautista in June.

Rk	Player	BA	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
1	Josh Hamilton	.359	133	571	518	95	186	40	3	32	100	43	95	8	1	.411	.633	1.044
2	Miguel Cabrera	.328	150	648	548	111	180	45	1	38	126	89	95	3	3	.420	.622	1.042
5	Robinson Cano	.319	160	696	626	103	200	41	3	29	109	57	77	3	2	.381	.534	.914
42	Jose Bautista	.260	161	683	569	109	148	35	3	54	124	100	116	9	2	.378	.617	.995

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/23/2010.

With the announcement of the final major award for the season, I like to consider this day the final one of the 2010 campaign. We also saw the last managerial opening officially filled today with the Mets' introduction of Terry Collins. (I may get into my thoughts on that later.) Today is the arbitration deadline, which will put a final stamp on the makeup of this winter's free-agent crop, and Thanksgiving is upon us. On the other side of the holiday is December and the Winter Meetings, so soon we'll be looking forward to 2011 in earnest.

Time to turn that Hot Stove up to 11.

Is Beckett deal the beginning of the Marlins' end?

I think, on the eve of the 2008 season, as the Las Vegas franchise prepares for its first season after relocating from Miami, the retrospective columns will look back upon this Thanksgiving week as the beginning of the Marlins' quick downward spiral. Yesterday's trade that sent Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell to Boston for shortstop Hanley Ramirez and two other prospects will be seen as the start of the series of events that sent the club on its westward journey. In two short years -- and 50 years after the Dodgers and Giants left New York -- we'll likely be talking about the Marlins' impending move during this holiday week.

As for the current team, Carlos Delgado will be the next to go, probably Juan Pierre after that (to one of the teams that loses out on Johnny Damon). That may be enough of a payroll cut for this season. They won't trade Dontrelle Willis or Miguel Cabrera because they're not owned by the other 29 owners and if Jeffrey Loria decides to sell, he'll need some superstars to keep the value at a decent level. Either that, or he'll need the star power to convince Las Vegas -- or Charlotte or Mexico City or perhaps even Portland, Oregon -- to build a ballpark for him.

At least Loria won't have to worry about spending too much on top free agents -- after this off-season, there won't be many players who want to come to South Florida.

Can the Mets get Delgado? The fact that the teams are in the same division shouldn't matter, as Murray Chass points out. It's not like the Marlins will be competitive enough to be in a "rivalry" with the Mets the next two or three years. Besides, they've done it before, agreeing to pay a good chunk of Mike Hampton's salary when they acquired him from the Rockies and then sent him on to the Braves.

I think, in the end, the Mets will make the move for Delgado. Chass notes that Manny Ramirez can veto any trade now that he's a 10-and-5 player, so despite Ramirez's superior numbers, there are several reasons why Delgado may be a better buy: He's cheaper (per season), he's left-handed, he plays a position of need in New York and the Mets won't have to convince him to play right field, as they will have to do with Cliff Floyd or Ramirez (provided Floyd isn't dealt to Boston in order to get Manny).

It would probably take Yusmerio Petit to get Delgado, but he might be the only big chip or top prospect they'd have to deal. Add in Steve Trachsel (at, I believe, just $2.5 million next year) and you give Florida a solid veteran replacement for Beckett. Considering the apparent depth of pitching prospects the Mets have (Matt Peterson, Brian Bannister, Philip Humber, Mike Pelfrey if he signs), not to mention the emergence of Jae Seo and Aaron Heilman last season and a relatively young Kris Benson, dealing Petit shouldn't deplete them too much. I don't know that he's even the most major-league ready of all the prospects.

In spring training 2004, the Mets wouldn't deal Jose Reyes or Scott Kazmir for Alfonso Soriano, and it appears that stance will hold up as a good assessment of the players' abilities. (Though somewhere between March and July of that year, they somehow decided that while Soriano wasn't worth Kazmir, Victor Zambrano was. Which brings up another idea: Throw in Zambrano for Delgado.) And there was no way they were dealing David Wright, either. (The best assessment of them all.)

But for Carlos Delgado, I'll take the chance that Petit could become Scott Kazmir. At least Delgado has proven himself as a major-league slugger during the past 10 seasons, whereas Zambrano proved that he was an underachieving arm who couldn't catch up to his potential, even if that potential was blown out of proportion.