Eyeing the rest of the postseason

ALCS
Twins vs. Yankees
Whether or not the Twins need Johan Santana to close out the ALDS against the A's will have a lot of bearing on this series. If Santana can go in Game 1 -- and potentially give the Twins three starts, if they need them -- the Twins can have a better shot at knocking off the Yankees.

New York, of course, has that formidable lineup, but the problem in the postseason -- as Alex Rodriguez learned last year -- is that slumps are magnified, and for good reason. A player can overcome a bad week or a 1-for-15 stretch and still have a good season, still be an All-Star, still win the MVP. Do that in the postseason, and your team could be going home. I think the Yankees will. Jason Giambi's wrist injury will keep him from playing first base, meaning Gary Sheffield gets that assignment after playing about a week there in September. Giambi's wrist could affect his hitting, and Sheffield's defense will be a liability.

The Yankees are on the verge of becoming the Giants, a team of aging stars. GM Brian Cashman won't let that happen, of course, but it could catch up to the Yankees in the postseason. From Randy Johnson's back to Mike Mussina's groin to Mariano Rivera's forearm/elbow to the wrists on Giambi, Sheffield and Hideki Matsui, there are any number of potential injury time bombs.

If the Twins' rotation lines up right -- and I think it will -- the Rangers' Michael Young will have not only won the All-Star Game for the American League, but he'll have put Game 1 of the World Series at the Metrodome on Oct. 21.

Twins in seven.

NLCS
Padres vs. Mets
The Shea Stadium fans will not cheer Mike Piazza as loudly this time around. And he certainly won't get a curtain call after a home run, unless it's a solo shot with two outs that cuts a Mets lead to 10-2 in the top of the ninth in Game 7.

Today's news about Orlando Hernandez's potential calf injury is a bigger blow than Pedro Martinez's because the Mets were already preparing themselves for a postseason without Pedro. El Duque was the primary reason, Exhibit A of Plan B. If Hernandez cannot pitch in Game 1 of the NLDS tomorrow, that puts Steve Trachsel in Game 1 -- Tom Glavine had already pitched his bullpen session and cannot take the spot -- and puts John Maine (unless he gets Game 1) as the Game 3 starter in Dodger Stadium. And what the heck is a 44-year-old Hernandez doing running sprints the day before he's to pitch in the postseason? He's a veteran; he should just be left to pitch.

When I sat down earlier this afternoon to run through my thoughts for the postseason, I was all set to tab the Mets for their third world championship. Yes, it's a bit of a homer call, a bit of a heart pick, but the Mets have the pieces and have had the good fortune -- and talent, ability and depth -- to get through the season with the best record in baseball (tied with the Yankees). Only the 1998 Yanks have won the World Series after compiling the best record in baseball during the regular season. A Subway Series would guarantee that one of the teams with this year's best record would become just the second one to do so. With Hernandez's injury muddling things, I'm going to have to amend my thoughts. I believe the Mets can overcome the loss of one starter, but I'm not sure about two.

I hope I'm wrong.

Padres in six.

World Series
Padres vs. Twins
The idiocy of awarding Games 1, 2, 6 and 7 of the World Series to the representative from the league that wins the All-Star Game is, as I've said, insane. It's no different from awarding home-field advantage to the team with the best spring-training record, because both are exhibition games largely decided by players who will not benefit from that which they helped to win. None of the American League's seven hits, three runs or three RBIs in the Midsummer Clunker came from a player in the postseason. At least Trevor Hoffman, who took the loss for the National League, may get to see what his ineffectiveness has wrought.

The Twins would've had home-field advantage anyway -- the American League team had it in even-numbered years under the old alternating system -- but their home crowds at the Metrodome surpass all but a few in baseball, and probably match up evenly with the likes of Boston and the two New York stadiums. In a Twins-Padres series, I see the Minnesota pitching edging out that of San Diego -- not a bad staff in itself -- and doing more to neutralize the opposing offense. If the Mets manage to find their way to the Series, I give them as good a chance as any team to win it. Without them representing the National League, I think the AL retains the crown ... for this year.

Twins in six.

ALCS Game 7: Evil Empire crumbles

Yesterday's games:

Red Sox 10, Yankees 3

Cardinals something, Astros less

Red Sox win series 4-3

Let's face it, this was the game of the year. Sure, my prediction from the start of the postseason turned out to be wrong, but as I said then -- I couldn't see myself calling it until it was proven possible. That is, I couldn't foresee a Red Sox victory, either in the division during the season or in the postseason, until they managed to pull it off once. And now they have. Is this the start of the Curse of A-Rod? It's been 86 years since the Red Sox won a World Series, and 1986 was the last time they even got to one. If they manage to win it all, we'll know one thing: to break the curse, Boston had to go through New York. Knowing that, Red Sox Nation would've been calling for the wild card in 1965. It figures it would take something as monumental and historic as becoming the first team to win a playoff series after losing the first three games. And the Yankees just looked defeated last night. Not physically, on the field, but emotionally, because they knew they had it, and they blew it. Several times.

It had to be clear that the Yankee mystique, that all those ghosts, would fail them this time. Yesterday was Mickey Mantle's birthday, after all. Maybe that's the Yankees' problem (or at least their fans') -- they did not go into yesterday's game saying, "I think they'll win tonight because Brown's due to come up big and Lowe's been horrible all year." They -- particularly New York radio host Mike Francesa -- were saying, "We're not going to lose tonight because it's Mickey Mantle's birthday." That kind of reasoning only holds up for so long.

I wonder at what point last night George Steinbrenner started firing people. You know he wanted to during the game, that's for sure, but is he the kind of guy who decides to sleep on a decision rather than making a knee-jerk move? And is Brian Cashman in trouble because Fox showed him on camera after Damon's grand slam screaming, "Fuck!" from his suite?

There are only so many hours in the day, and I have to work during many of them, but it would've been fun to sit at home all day and listen to the New York talk radio shows. But I'm not going to try to say this any better than Tyler Kepner, who ended his game story in the New York Times with this paragraph:

It was actually happening. The nerd was kissing the homecoming queen. Paper was beating scissors; scissors were beating rock. Charlie Brown was kicking the football. The Red Sox were beating the Yankees for the American League pennant.

And no one can put it better than ESPN.com's Bill Simmons. Well done.

Cardinals-Astros series tied 3-3
I think, in a way, it's good that the Astros didn't clinch yesterday, because today is all about the Red Sox. We'll deal with this outcome after tonight's game.

ALCS Game 6: Schilling's gutty performance

Yesterday's game:
Red Sox 4, Yankees 2

Yankees-Red Sox series tied 3-3
Holy shit. First team down 0-3 to even get to Game 7. So I guess this series did turn out to be quite exciting after all. It's down to one winner-take-all game, Derek Lowe against someone, as of this morning, yet to be determined. Kevin Brown? Orlando Hernandez, who was warming up in the ninth last night in the event the Yankees tied it? You know everyone will be available, with the exception of Jon Lieber. Turns out the Red Sox had the Yankees just where they wanted them, and wanted themselves. They've admitted they play loose and coming back to New York, there was no pressure on them. There might be some tonight, but it's still not as much as that which is on the men in pinstripes. We're starting to see it, both from the Yankees and their fans. What is Alex Rodriguez doing trying to knock the ball out of the pitcher's hand on the tag play going to first? That's a play made by a Little Leaguer who doesn't know the game -- it's a childish play. And the fans had no right to get upset over the umpires convening to make the correct call (except for the fact that few of them probably saw what actually happened). In the end, it was sad to see that the fans forced the riot police to line the field for the final two half-innings. That's New York for you. I'm not saying it's New York and nowhere else, but it is, indeed, New York. I have no idea how to look at tonight's game, how to peg it. But I do have a feeling on one thing: food consumption will be down in New York and Boston today, because there are a few hundred thousand fans who will be too nervous and excited heading into tonight to find a way to eat. At least that's the way I'd be.

Game 5s: Walking off

Yesterday's games:
Red Sox 5, Yankees 4, 14 innings
Astros 3, Cardinals 0

Astros lead series 3-2
Watching the other game while working tonight, we didn't flip over to check on this one at all. So when it came over to Fox, we saw the scoreless game featuring two one-hitters -- an amazing pitching duel, the kind of games that quickly become postseason classics. After Brad Lidge easily dispatched of the top of the St. Louis order, striking out Larry Walker and Albert Pujols, I saw that Carlos Beltran was leading off the ninth. "This is it," I said to my co-workers. Sure enough, Beltran led off with a single and stole second -- his first in the series, making him 31-for-31 since joining Houston -- after Jeff Bagwell flied out to center. With first base now open, Lance Berkman was walked, and then Jeff Kent ended it with a three-run shot to left. Now the Astros return to St. Louis needing one of the two games to head to their first World Series. The belief is that they will pitch Roger Clemens in Game 6 on Wednesday on three days' rest. His numbers in such situations isn't good throughout his career, but can Phil Garner really go with Pete Munro in a potential clincher? He's in a tight spot, one in which he will probably be second-guessed either way. Perhaps the better option is to send Munro out there -- he allowed three runs on six hits in 4 2/3 in Game 2, which isn't horrible -- and, if a Game 7 is needed, start Clemens on full rest and have Roy Oswalt (then on three days' rest) available out of the bullpen as a bridge to Lidge. Or, if Clemens is strong, Oswalt can be saved to start Game 1 of the Series. One thing's for sure: No matter how much Garner's moves have been questioned, they've still gotten the Astros within one win of the World Series.

Yankees lead series 3-2
How exciting and intense would this series have been if it hadn't started out 3-0 for New York? There is definitely some electricity and excitement buzzing around Boston right now, but how much momentum do they really have? Both games were won in extra innings, so it's not like the Red Sox rode a wave of emotion and fan support and breezed through Games 4 and 5. There were times in both games when Fenway came across on TV like the 18th green at the Masters, only with less anticipation and hope in the air. Despite these two nail-biting wins, there's still that feeling that the Sox are merely putting off the inevitable. Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated, for one, felt like Boston could win two at home and bring the series back to New York, and under other circumstances, they'd still be considered to have a chance. But seeing as how no team has ever come back from 0-3, the order in which they've won these games is what has Yankee fans still feeling somewhat confident. But there's this: If Curt Schilling does pitch Game 6, and if he can get over his ankle injury -- if it really is comfortable enough to not be a factor -- then it's down to a winner-take-all seventh game in which anything can happen. It won't, but there have to be some normally pessimistic Red Sox fans who are at least a little bit excited at the prospects.

Game 4s: BELT-ran and solving Rivera

Yesterday's games:
Astros 6, Cardinals 5
Red Sox 6, Yankees 4, 12 innings

Cardinals-Astros series tied 2-2
Well, here we are. Series tied. Fresh start. Best of three. We'll have to see how the rookie Brandon Backe does tonight at home, where the Astros haven't lost since August 22, when the Cubs won the rubber match of a three-game series 11-6. If this series was any indication, the AP story said, Houston is going to have a tough time overtaking the Cubs in the standings. Chicago was only a ninth-inning rally on Saturday away from a sweep. "This puts us in a bind," Astros manager Phil Garner said. "We're not out of it, but it's going to be tough." At the time, the Cubs were 67-56, the Astros 61-62. Chicago went 22-23 the rest of the way, Houston 31-8. No matter what happens tonight, the thinking is that Roger Clemens will get the nod on three days' rest to pitch either a season-saving or a potential clinching Game 6 in St. Louis on Wednesday. What's been really great about this postseason is watching Carlos Beltran emerge as the superstar fantasy players and many others truly believed he was. The tragedy will be if he really does sign with the Yankees in the offseason.

Yankees lead series 3-1
Imagine if this game had happened in any other game than a Game 4 with the Red Sox down 0-3. It's the kind of game that can turn things around, that can propell a team on a run that ends in a series -- or a World Series -- victory. It's the kind of loss, particularly when you note that, once again the Red Sox got to Mariano Rivera. Yet, all it does is make it a 3-1 series, basically pushing back the inevitable and making it one Boston win from allowing the Yankees to clinch the AL pennant at home. No team has ever bounced back from an 0-3 deficit to win, and while it will happen one day, it's probably not going to be the Yankees who blow it.

Game 3s: Night and day

Thursday's game:
Cardinals 6, Astros 4

Yesterday's games:
Astros 5, Cardinals 2
Yankees 19, Red Sox 8

Cardinals lead series 2-1
There was little attention paid to baseball the past few days because Notre Dame was playing Navy at Giants Stadium, and with so many college friends and their families in, we didn't spend too much time watching the LCS. During last night's relaxing dinner party at my apartment, however, we did flip back to the games when football contests were slower or in commercial, so we saw a bit of Roger Clemens' strong performance capped by the devastating slider of the former Notre Dame pitcher, Brad Lidge. At the moment, the Astros are tied 5-5, but I'll hold off on further comment until the game is final. I have to say, though, that my favorite uniform for Houston is the white jersey without the pinstripes and the brick-red "Astros" and cap. I don't like the red BP jerseys they're wearing today, and the black pinstripes and hats aren't as cool.

Yankees lead series 3-0
I'm just not in the mood. I'll address it when it's time.

ALCS Game 2: Daddy's Day

Yesterday's games:
Yankees 3, Red Sox 1
Cardinals 10, Astros 7

Yankees lead series 2-0
Red Sox Nation is calling it. Time of death: 10:28 p.m. Or whenever Olerud's homer landed in the right-field seats. The long-suffering Boston fans can't see a comeback from an 0-2 hole. At least there shouldn't be any offseason second-guessing and questioning -- Schilling's injury will go down as the turning point in this series. They may not admit it, but Yankee fans are relieved he may not pitch again. And they won't want to hear it, but the Sox' ace clearly wasn't able to pitch in Game 1 and that, more than anything, is why he was beaten. There has been a history of the home teams winning every game in a seven-game series, so if the Red Sox manage to sweep the games at Fenway, all they'll need is one of the final two in the Bronx. It's not out of the question, but first they need to win Game 3, then Game 4. Then Game 5. I would be surprised if it's a sweep -- however, if the Yankees take Game 3 ... well, Sunday might be a day of rest for everyone.

Cardinals lead series 1-0
I think this was the game the Astros had to win. Their chances seemed better with Backe than they do with Pete Munro tonight. Man, what a different series this could be with at least either Andy Pettitte or Wade Miller. Interesting that this game was decided by the same score as the Yankees-Red Sox Game 1, with the home team winning. As for tonight's second game, Matt Morris has been up and down all year. Maybe Houston's batters can jump out to a good early lead and give him some breathing room, settle him down, allow him to relax just enough to pitch well. I'll be rooting for the Astros tonight, only because a 1-1 series would essentially be starting over with the games in Houston and Roy Oswalt and Roger Clemens on the mound.

ALCS Game 1: It's Godzilla!

Yesterday’s game:
Yankees 10, Red Sox 7

Yankees lead series, 1-0
After it was 8-0, I wasn’t watching. So I guess I missed the actual game. Well, it clearly showed us a few things: 1. The Red Sox are never out of it. We already know the Yankees – they of the 61 come-from-behind victories this season – fit that description. The Red Sox have all year, the way they can hit. But there are some who feel that Boston is a different team when playing the pinstripes. Last night showed that such an assumption is false. 2. Curt Schilling is probably hurt. We know he “tweaked” his ankle, but that performance last night was not a Schilling performance. He’s a big-game pitcher; last night’s game was the reason he came to Boston. He may not be able to pitch again in this series. There’s more to be said here, but it can’t be said until after tonight’s game. 3. Hideki Matsui is the difference in the Yankees lineup this year. He’s had another year to adapt to baseball in the U.S., and as many predicted, he put up better numbers this season. Bernie Williams is clearly on the decline and while he’ll still come through with some big hits, he’s not the Bernie of old. Derek Jeter is as he always was, and Alex Rodriguez and Gary Sheffield will always be feared. But Matsui is a key to the lineup, in part because he’s their most powerful left-handed bat (with the exception of part-timers Tony Clark and Ruben Sierra). When the series moves to Boston this weekend, getting Matsui out with runners on second and third and two outs will be more than just two potential runs kept off the board. It could be a three, four run turnaround when the Sox start slamming the ball off the Green Monster and send Matsui scurrying around left field like a 6-year-old chasing gulls on the beach. At least it’s simple for the Red Sox tonight: Get seven solid innings (NO MORE) out of Pedro Martinez, then turn a two- or three-run lead over to the bullpen. Then head up to Beantown to start over in a best-of-five series.

On to the ALCS

Yesterday's game:
Astros 12, Braves 3

Astros win series, 3-2
Thirteen division titles -- or whatever it is -- and one measly World Series victory to show for it. This has got to be the worst dynasty ever. Watch: the first team to win the division other than the Braves will probably go on to win the Series. Atlanta's inevitable crumbling aside, how big is that Carlos Beltran trade now? The fans of Houston won't care if he signs with the Cubs or Red Sox or Yankees this winter if the Astros win the World Series. I think both the players and fans in Houston and Boston know that it's this year or, like, 2007, when they can come back with some seasoned younger players mixed in with a new crop of veterans. Guys like Lance Berkman, Roy Oswalt, Wade Miller, Brad Lidge and Andy Pettitte will still be around (even if they're not now, in the case of Miller and Pettitte) then, but this is the last best chance for Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Jeff Kent and Roger Clemens. The Astros, who took 10 of the 18 meetings with the Cardinals this season, will have to earn a split in St. Louis with the likes of Brandon Backe and Pete Munro. There's a chance. Each team has swept a series on the road this season. Could Backe be this postseason's Josh Beckett or John Lackey? Then that sets up Clemens and Oswalt for starts at home in Games 3 and 4, and also leaves one available to start (and the other to relieve?) in a potential Game 7. I'm sticking with my Cardinals pick in the upcoming series, but just like in the ALCS, I can see Houston riding the wave at least one more step.

This afternoon in New York, "Paul Revere" was to ride through Times Square announcing that the Red Sox were coming. The Red Sox are coming! I think it was a stunt by ESPN Radio (that's where I heard the announcement, tacked on to the end of a "SportsCenter" update), and while the excitement of the rivalry and the buzz about town is great -- I love that stuff -- I hate it when they bastardize things and screw up history. There are two things about this series for which this Paul Revere stunt might apply: The Red Sox wear red coats, just as the British soldiers did, and they're from Boston. That's it. He's a Boston figure, and if anyone gets to have him ride through the streets in a contemporary call to arms, it's the people of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Revere warned of the enemy coming to Boston, not Boston invading New Amsterdam. I once commissioned a cartoon from the artist of our campus newspaper to draw Paul Revere riding through the streets of Boston shouting, "The Irish are coming! The Irish are coming!" in advance of a Notre Dame-Boston College game. Now, that was clever.

Postseason thoughts, Day 5

Saturday's games:
Astros 8, Braves 5
Yankees 6, Twins 5, 11 innings
Dodgers 4, Cardinals 0

Yesterday's games:
Braves 6, Astros 5
Cardinals 6, Dodgers 2

Yankees win series, 3-1
There wasn't much doubt how this one would turn out, especially after the Twins blew Game 2. Even when the Yankees aren't as good as they're perceived to be, or they've been in past seasons, they somehow seem to get the job done. Now they head into the Red Sox Rematch -- er, ALCS -- with the added drama of "Do It For Mo," Mariano Rivera, who'll be coming back from Panama, where his wife's cousin and the cousin's son died when they were electrocuted while cleaning Rivera's pool. There's always something with the Yankees. The Red Sox have a better chance of pulling it off this year -- it could be their best chance to win the Series since 1986 -- but they've got one particular stat to knock off first: The Yankees have never lost in the ALCS. They're 10-0, including 6-0 since 1996. New York's only postseason losses since returning there in 1995 were in the Division Series (to the Mariners in '95, the Indians in '97 and the Angels in '02) or the World Series (the Diamondbacks in '01 and the Marlins last year). Unless the Yankees beat Curt Schilling once, Pedro Martinez twice or a combination of that, along with taking out Tim Wakefield, this one's going seven games. Schilling could very well win three games this series, and if he does, that'll do it, because the third start, naturally, would be Game 7. And if he doesn't start it, he'll be available out of the bullpen, that's for sure. But as I said in my postseason preview, I can't go against the Yankees here until it happens. I'm rooting for it with my heart, but I'm thinking that it'll be Yanks in seven. We'll see.

Cardinals win series, 3-1
Four games: pegged it. At least Lima Time is back in effect, and it helped the Dodgers end their eight-game postseason losing streak. The Dodgers' pitching wasn't considered all that spectacular by many (a view I held too), so the St. Louis lineup will have to somehow put up the same output against Houston or Atlanta if it wants to move on to the World Series for the first time since 1987. Those teams can hit, and the Cardinals may benefit from the potential of playing four of the seven games at home, but they'll have to keep either the Astros or the Braves off the board at some point to notch a win or two. Depsite the 4-0 Dodgers win in Game 3, the Cardinals still averaged 5.5 runs per game in the series, allowing 3 per game to L.A., which only scored more than three runs in its shutout victory, when, it turned out, one would have been enough. The point is, there will probably be one or two games against either the Astros or Braves in which eight runs is not enough to win.

Astros-Braves series tied, 2-2
I said the Astros would sweep, and instead, it's the only series that comes down to a decisive Game 5. Clearly, I never thought it would be coming back to Atlanta, and my sweep pick was more that I thought the Braves were the most sweep-able team of the eight. Not so much. What Houston has going for it is Roy Oswalt. He's Ace 1A on this team, and he can clearly lead the Astros to their first postseason series victory in the team's 42-year history. But he'll have to go seven or eight innings to do it, which means Houston will need a 3- or 4-run lead to keep him from getting pinch-hit for in the sixth or seventh. So more than just the way he pitches will determine how far he goes in this game. Phil Garner's getting a little heat for the way he's managed this series, and he's a bit lucky to have Oswalt going here because he couldn't use an ill Clemens to pitch the wild-card clincher on the last day of the season, so his division series rotation was set for him. The Astros should've wrapped this one up at home yesterday, and in going with Clemens on three days' rest, why lift him after five? (Ron Gardenhire's getting the same heat for lifting Johan Santana after only five innings, and he deserves it more. Why go with your ace on three days' rest in Game 4? Well, when you're down 2-1 facing elimination, it's logical. But you have to get at least six, if not seven from him.) Anyway, in Game 2, Oswalt went 6 1/3, allowing a run on eight hits and a walk, striking out four. Brad Lidge was asked to go 2 2/3 for the save, and he didn't get it, and Atlanta won on Rafael Furcal's game-winning DWI -- er, game-winning RBI -- a two-run home run in the 11th. Back in May, Houston took two out of three in Atlanta, losing the middle game (started by Oswalt) 5-4 in the 10th on an Andruw Jones home run. Essentially, that's what the Astros would be doing tonight, taking a three-game series in Atlanta after losing the second game. My pick for tonight: 7-2 Astros.