Postseason thoughts, Day 5

Saturday's games:
Astros 8, Braves 5
Yankees 6, Twins 5, 11 innings
Dodgers 4, Cardinals 0

Yesterday's games:
Braves 6, Astros 5
Cardinals 6, Dodgers 2

Yankees win series, 3-1
There wasn't much doubt how this one would turn out, especially after the Twins blew Game 2. Even when the Yankees aren't as good as they're perceived to be, or they've been in past seasons, they somehow seem to get the job done. Now they head into the Red Sox Rematch -- er, ALCS -- with the added drama of "Do It For Mo," Mariano Rivera, who'll be coming back from Panama, where his wife's cousin and the cousin's son died when they were electrocuted while cleaning Rivera's pool. There's always something with the Yankees. The Red Sox have a better chance of pulling it off this year -- it could be their best chance to win the Series since 1986 -- but they've got one particular stat to knock off first: The Yankees have never lost in the ALCS. They're 10-0, including 6-0 since 1996. New York's only postseason losses since returning there in 1995 were in the Division Series (to the Mariners in '95, the Indians in '97 and the Angels in '02) or the World Series (the Diamondbacks in '01 and the Marlins last year). Unless the Yankees beat Curt Schilling once, Pedro Martinez twice or a combination of that, along with taking out Tim Wakefield, this one's going seven games. Schilling could very well win three games this series, and if he does, that'll do it, because the third start, naturally, would be Game 7. And if he doesn't start it, he'll be available out of the bullpen, that's for sure. But as I said in my postseason preview, I can't go against the Yankees here until it happens. I'm rooting for it with my heart, but I'm thinking that it'll be Yanks in seven. We'll see.

Cardinals win series, 3-1
Four games: pegged it. At least Lima Time is back in effect, and it helped the Dodgers end their eight-game postseason losing streak. The Dodgers' pitching wasn't considered all that spectacular by many (a view I held too), so the St. Louis lineup will have to somehow put up the same output against Houston or Atlanta if it wants to move on to the World Series for the first time since 1987. Those teams can hit, and the Cardinals may benefit from the potential of playing four of the seven games at home, but they'll have to keep either the Astros or the Braves off the board at some point to notch a win or two. Depsite the 4-0 Dodgers win in Game 3, the Cardinals still averaged 5.5 runs per game in the series, allowing 3 per game to L.A., which only scored more than three runs in its shutout victory, when, it turned out, one would have been enough. The point is, there will probably be one or two games against either the Astros or Braves in which eight runs is not enough to win.

Astros-Braves series tied, 2-2
I said the Astros would sweep, and instead, it's the only series that comes down to a decisive Game 5. Clearly, I never thought it would be coming back to Atlanta, and my sweep pick was more that I thought the Braves were the most sweep-able team of the eight. Not so much. What Houston has going for it is Roy Oswalt. He's Ace 1A on this team, and he can clearly lead the Astros to their first postseason series victory in the team's 42-year history. But he'll have to go seven or eight innings to do it, which means Houston will need a 3- or 4-run lead to keep him from getting pinch-hit for in the sixth or seventh. So more than just the way he pitches will determine how far he goes in this game. Phil Garner's getting a little heat for the way he's managed this series, and he's a bit lucky to have Oswalt going here because he couldn't use an ill Clemens to pitch the wild-card clincher on the last day of the season, so his division series rotation was set for him. The Astros should've wrapped this one up at home yesterday, and in going with Clemens on three days' rest, why lift him after five? (Ron Gardenhire's getting the same heat for lifting Johan Santana after only five innings, and he deserves it more. Why go with your ace on three days' rest in Game 4? Well, when you're down 2-1 facing elimination, it's logical. But you have to get at least six, if not seven from him.) Anyway, in Game 2, Oswalt went 6 1/3, allowing a run on eight hits and a walk, striking out four. Brad Lidge was asked to go 2 2/3 for the save, and he didn't get it, and Atlanta won on Rafael Furcal's game-winning DWI -- er, game-winning RBI -- a two-run home run in the 11th. Back in May, Houston took two out of three in Atlanta, losing the middle game (started by Oswalt) 5-4 in the 10th on an Andruw Jones home run. Essentially, that's what the Astros would be doing tonight, taking a three-game series in Atlanta after losing the second game. My pick for tonight: 7-2 Astros.

Postseason thoughts, Day 2

Yesterday's games:
Astros 9, Braves 3
Yankees 7, Twins 6, 12 innings
Red Sox 8, Angels 3

Astros lead series 1-0
Early in the season, when Roger Clemens was something like 9-0, I didn't want to think he was still that dominant. I figured a lot of it had to do with changing leagues and facing lineups who had never seen him and his impressive splitter. As the Astros faded, he didn't get the same press, and I look up his numbers in September, and he's 18-4. OK, that's good. He may have struggled yesterday, but he got out of those jams. He may be a bit of an ass, but he's from Texas. A lot of people are. At least he's a little more likable, and more subdued, than Barry Bonds. I can enjoy watching Clemens set milestones. But the Braves are in trouble. They've never drawn well, so they gave fans who purchased tickets to yesterday's game free tickets to today's game, just to fill seats. Yeah, great fans they have in Atlanta. But Carlos Beltran showed why he'll be the most coveted free agent this winter. Since the all-star break, when the Astros were just 44-44 and struggling, he hit only .257, with 17 home runs and 41 RBI. But he improved his strikeout-to-walk ratio ever so slightly (51 Ks to 45 walks pre-break, 50-47 afterwards) and upped his on-base percentage 5 points to .370. The biggest difference, however, was his aggressiveness on the bases: 27 post-break steals to 15 before the midsummer classic. And all three of his caught stealings came in the first half. But it's Clemens I keep coming back to, and if Roy Oswalt mimics Rocket's output, hometown boy Brandon Backe will have a chance for another big -- and historic -- win in Game 3 in Houston.

Twins-Yankees series tied 1-1
As much as the Yankees and their fans would have talked calmly and acted cooly if they had gone down 0-2 -- "We've just got to take it one game at a time"; "We've been here before"; etc. -- this team would have been in trouble going to Minnesota in such a hole. Sure, it was a big win for the Twins too, which is why Ron Gardenhire had his closer out there to finish off the game in his third inning of work. It's just that I don't get why he was out there in the 10th to begin with. Gardenhire said he left Nathan in for his third inning after the Twins had taken a 6-5 lead on Torii Hunter's home run off Tanyon Sturtze because he "didn't like our options" left in the bullpen. When you're on the road, you know you're going to have to protect a lead with the home team getting one last at-bat, so why was Nathan in there in a tie game to begin with? When the Yankees rallied, he had to bring someone in after Nathan, so why couldn't J.C. Romero have started the 10th? If he got into trouble, then Gardenhire could've brought Nathan in to get out of a jam. The Yankees were lucky to come away with this one. Mariano Rivera faltered again, and Sturtze, who was one of the relievers the team was talking up as having finished the season strong, would have been the losing pitcher. Now the question is: How will Kevin Brown pitch? He's obviously not Joe Torre's first choice, or the decision would have been announced earlier than yesterday. This may seem like an obvious expectation, but my feeling is Brown will either get shelled and not make it through the third, or he'll be brilliant and scatter four hits over seven.

Red Sox lead series 2-0
It's over. Boston isn't the Oakland A's, the Red Sox are not going to blow a 2-0 lead. There's a very slim chance this series will even get back to California. It might not make it to Saturday. Pedro sure sounds like a different pitcher now, far from the "the Yankees are my daddy" comments two weeks ago. "I was the No. 1 today, and that's all that matters," said Martinez, 0-4 with a 7.72 ERA to finish the season. "I don't care what the experts have to say, they were talking trash. Every time they give me the ball, I'm special." The Red Sox may have celebrated their postseason-clinching victory in Tampa Bay (while the Yankees like to talk about how they don't make a big deal out of postseason appearances because that's expected and their goal is to win the World Series), but Boston is playing like a calm, confident, focused team determined to be one of the last two playing this season. Bronson Arroyo might not scare many as the opposing pitcher in an elimination game, but are Angels fans really confident with Kelvim Escobar as their savior? In Boston, which might be the biggest home-field advantage this side of the Metrodome? I'm not so sure about that one.