One last season for the B-Mets?

I wasn't planning another post today, but then the long-rumored news that Ottawa's attempts to bring in a Double-A club in 2013 might mean the end of the Binghamton Mets seemed to become a reality. So that sparked some speculation on Twitter of where the affiliations would end up. For some reason, affiliations in minor league baseball and the shuffling (sometimes scrambling) that happens every two years intrigues me as much as free agency in the offseason. Maybe more. It might stem from the 2002 shuffling period, when I reported on the Red Sox and Trenton Thunder ending their affiliation, opening the door for the Yankees to swoop into Mercer County Waterfront Park.

But I wasn't satisfied with discussing this latest news 140 characters at a time, so I went to look up the most recent info on when the player development contracts are up around the minors. Binghamton is one of those expiring after the 2012 season, as is New Hampshire -- the current Blue Jays affiliate in the Eastern League. And with Double-A baseball back in Canada, the prevailing speculation is that the Jays would move their affiliate to the new Ottawa franchise. (For his part, Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopolous is denying any interest in Ottawa, but that's no surprise considering that, at the moment, there is no team there and his club is under contract with New Hampshire.)

Should Toronto and Ottawa team up on a new PDC, the Mets could potentially move their Double-A affiliation to New Hampshire. Another possibility proposed is that the Twins might leave New Britain for New Hampshire. Minnesota has had its Double-A club in the Hartford suburb since 1995, but maybe the Twins would trade Rock Cats for Fisher Cats and move to the newer facility (opened in 2005) up in Manchester.

Here are all the Double-A affiliations that expire after this coming season, in order from the longest relationships to the newest. In some cases, the relationships go back longer than the franchise has been in that location. For example, the Royals have been in the Texas League since the club was in Wichita in 1995, but it moved to Arkansas (somewhere in the northwest part of the state, I think) in 2008:

League	Club	Parent	Since
Eastern	Akron Aeros	Indians	1989
Eastern	Binghamton Mets	Mets	1992
Eastern	New Britain Rock Cats	Twins	1995
Texas	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	Royals	1995
Southern	Huntsville Stars	Brewers	1999
Texas	Midland RockHounds	Athletics	1999
Eastern	Erie SeaWolves	Tigers	2001
Texas	Arkansas Travelers	Angels	2001
Eastern	Portland Sea Dogs	Red Sox	2003
Eastern	Richmond Flying Squirrels	Giants	2003
Eastern	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	Blue Jays	2003
Eastern	Harrisburg Senators	Nationals	2005
Southern	Mobile BayBears	Diamondbacks	2007
Southern	Tennessee Smokies	Cubs	2007
Southern	Jackson Generals	Mariners	2007
Texas	San Antonio Missions	Padres	2007
Southern	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	Reds	2009
Southern	Jacksonville Suns	Marlins	2009

Now, based on the relationships and/or location, a few thoughts -- with no background or first-hand info; these are just gut feelings -- on which affiliations are most likely to be renewed or not:

No Need to Pack: Indians (Akron), Royals (Northwest Arkansas), Tigers (Erie), Red Sox (Portland), Nationals (Harrisburg)*, Marlins (Jacksonville). These are all geographical fits, including several long-time commitments going back more than a decade.

*I put the Nationals-Harrisburg relationship here because the Pennsylvania capital is a comfy 120 miles from D.C., farther than only low-A Hagerstown and high-A Potomac in the Washington system. However, with the Harrisburg ballpark prone to flooding (it being on an island and all), the Nationals could very well decide they'd rather not have their players in that environment. They could easily choose Richmond (107 miles away) instead.

Comfortable Marriages (likely to re-up on account of not having an option that much closer to the parent club): Twins (New Britain), Cubs (Tennessee), Padres (San Antonio), A's (Midland), Angels (Arkansas). Congratulations, Oakland! You have the western-most Double-A club in baseball! I can't imagine any of the West Coast teams would want to get out of the Texas League -- and I imagine the Giants would love to get in there -- but it tends to be a case of musical chairs. As for Minnesota, they could try to get a Midwestern affiliate in either the Texas or Southern Leagues, but since both of those leagues are entirely below the Mason-Dixon Line, those cities wouldn't be that much closer to Minneapolis than any Eastern League cities.

In a Rut (probably stuck, even if they wanted to move): Brewers (Huntsville), Mariners (Jackson), Diamondbacks (Mobile), Reds (Pensacola). Maybe Milwaukee would like to get one of the Tennessee clubs, putting its Double-A affiliate closer to both the parent club and the Triple-A club in Nashville. And the Mariners might like to get into the Texas League, but they'd have to usurp one of the California clubs from that circuit. The Reds' affiliate moves from Zebulon, N.C., to the Florida panhandle after a three-city franchise shuffle that saw the Carolina Mudcats (previously the Reds' Double-A Southern League affiliate) slide down to the high-A Carolina League, replacing Kinston, N.C., which is now without a club for the first time since the 1970s.

On the Market (three or four that are most likely to be shuffling come September?): Mets (Binghamton/Ottawa), Giants (Richmond), Blue Jays (New Hampshire), Twins (New Britain). All have been discussed above, and the Blue Jays and Twins -- listed in two categories, on purpose -- are really only here because of that speculation regarding the Ottawa franchise. Maybe everyone will be happy where they are and Toronto, Minnesota and San Francisco will all re-up, leaving the Mets in Ottawa (not too far from Buffalo, if the Mets renew with their Triple-A club -- no sure thing, but that's another post). The Giants have been in the Eastern League since 2003, when the affiliate was in Norwich, Conn. The franchise moved to Virginia before the 2010 season. But you'd have to think there's some interest in moving west, even if the options aren't that much better. Ideally, I'm sure the Giants and Mariners would love to find a way to expand the Texas League by two franchises, but that would have to be at the expense of either the Eastern League or Southern League.

One other point: As mentioned in the ESPN New York post linked at the top of this post, Binghamton would likely continue to host an affiliated team in 2013, drawing the Batavia franchise (currently a Cardinals affiliate) from the New York-Penn League. As mentioned in the Ottawa Citizen,

The Batavia franchise has been on the selling block for years. The community owned Muckdogs, playing in the smallest venue in that league, have constantly lost money while being operated by the Triple-A Rochester Red Wings.

That also may be another post. But no matter how it all comes down, it looks like we're in for some franchise movement -- and new logos, uniforms and team names -- in addition to the usual affiliation shuffles this fall.

2008 Preview: AL East

BOSTON RED SOX

In general

What's not to like about the Red Sox? Really only one thing: Curt Schilling's shoulder. Clearly, Boston was counting on Schilling as its likely third starter with the $8-million deal it signed him to in the offseason. Had they had any doubts about his healthy, they surely would've offered him an incentive-laden contract (say, $2-4 million a year, with increases for innings pitched or starts made). And if Schilling didn't like that offer, he would've tried the free-agent market. But it's not all bad for Boston, because now they can put both promising young arms -- the right one of Clay Buchholz and the left one of Jon Lester -- into the rotation, if they so please. Nonetheless, their starting pitching is in decent shape (particularly if Bartolo Colon has anything left) even without Schilling, while their bullpen and lineup haven't really lost anything.

September/October star Jacoby Ellsbury should get the center field job, leaving Coco Crisp as an attractive backup or trade piece to help the pitching staff. It probably wouldn't hurt the Mets too much to consider Crisp as a left-field fill-in for Moises Alou. But everyone else is back, and maybe J.D. Drew won't suck as much.

What I'm looking forward to seeing

Will they be able to put away the Yankees if they open up a big lead like they did last year? Can Buchholz and Lester handle the load they're likely to be given this year? Will Tim Wakefield pitch until he's 50? (That won't happen this year, though.) Is Manny going to put up tremendous numbers in his walk year? (the Red Sox have an option for each of the next two seasons.) What can Ellsbury do in his first full season? And which J.D. Drew will the Nation get?

NEW YORK YANKEES

In general

They had one "significant" acquisition during the offseason -- highly uncharacteristic for the Yankees in the past decade -- and that was to bring in reliever LaTroy Hawkins. In a kick to the rear end for nostalgia, they gave him No. 22 -- the digits worn last year by Roger Clemens. That's pretty much an about-face from the self-indulging comeback announcement he made from George Steinbrenner's box at Yankee Stadium last year. Hawkins' signing, in theory, means that Joba Chamberlain moves to the rotation to start the season. But now the talk is that Joba will "begin" the season in the bullpen. There certainly is no need to force him into the rotation when Chien-Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte, Phil Hughes, Mike Mussina and Ian Kennedy form a solid five, but age is an issue with four-fifths of that quintet. Wang has won 19 games each of the past two seasons, but Pettitte and Mussina are basically year-to-year guys -- who knows what you'll get from them each year beyond their last. And Hughes and Kennedy will be attempting their first full seasons in a Major League rotation, and for all their talent, they'll still have to face the Red Sox three or four times each and face other challenges at the big league level that can't be simulated at lower levels or in spring training.

The Yankees lost nothing from their lineup, ensuring Alex Rodriguez is overpaid in a market that got out of hand in some cases (Carlos Silva) but showed admirable restraint in others (good job, everyone, for not giving Kyle Lohse $10 million a year). A-Rod didn't seem to have teams rushing to sign him for $230 million, but the Yankees didn't even try to bring him down from his -- or agent Scott Boras' -- initial demand. They also retained their catcher coming off a career year -- though their 36-year-old catcher, whom they signed for four more years. Jorge Posada shouldn't be a question mark this year, but at some point all that squatting has to (pardon the pun) catch up with him. Of course, his aversion to blocking the plate should add a year or two to the productive period of his career.

Where the Yankees are tight, or struggling with lineup decisions, is the left field, first base, designated hitter triangle. If they put Jason Giambi at first, Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui can split left and DH. But if they don't -- or can't -- put Giambi in the field, then either Damon or Matsui sits. And who plays first? Morgan Ensberg? Ouch. Whether it's Giambi, Damon or Matsui riding the padded cushion in the dugout, that's an awful lot of money for your first pinch-hitter off the bench. And it's not like you can put any of them in there for a defensive upgrade.

What I'm looking forward to seeing

I loved A-Rod when he was in the AL West, but now I hate him in pinstripes. However, it's still thrilling to watch him hit and to see just how high he can get those numbers. How quickly will he close the gap to 755 home runs? Will Derek Jeter -- the worst fielding shortstop in the game (up through something like 2005) -- get to any balls more than three steps away? (Kidding.) Actually, what I really want to see from this team is what Hughes, Kennedy and Chamberlain do -- and whether new manager Joe Girardi goes easy on them or pushes them as hard as he pushed his young Marlins pitchers during his lone season on the bench in Miami. Only Scott Olsen came out of that season unscathed. Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco and Anibal Sanchez have all had arm problems and missed significant time. And do they make the playoffs? This is not to discount the Yankees, but have they ever had the kind of competition for a playoff spot as they do this year with the Red Sox, Tigers and Indians? Probably not.

TORONTO BLUE JAYS

In general

In some other divisions, the Jays might be contenders. In the AL East, behind Boston and New York, Toronto is likely a mid-80s win team with a chance to make spoiler. Their lineup features solid on-base guys mixed with the power of Alex Rios, Vernon Wells, Frank Thomas and maybe Scott Rolen. The rotation starts with two premier arms in Roy Halladay and A.J. Burnett, followed by some potential breakout guys like Dustin McGowan and Shawn Marcum. The bullpen could be decent if B.J. Ryan is back from Tommy John surgery from the outset, but without him, it could be a slow start -- something the Jays can't afford.

What I'm looking forward to seeing

I drafted Rios in a fantasy league three or four years ago -- which was two or three years too early. He blossomed last year and was nearly traded to the Giants for one of the top up-and-coming arms in the game, Tim Lincecum. How good will Rios be? What does Frank Thomas have left? Seems like a lot, and it's always fun to watch the guy keep slugging because he's one of the good guys -- and one of the clean guys. Does Wells bounce back from a disappointing 2007? Does Rolen have a rebirth north of the border, or is his career set to take off on the downward slope?

TAMPA BAY RAYS

In general

This team is on the rise, and with the de-feathering of the Orioles, the Rays will move up a rung in the standings. A rotation beginning with Scott Kazmir, James Shields and Matt Garza looks like fun (so long as Kazmir's elbow is healthy), and a lineup stocked with young, talented hitters like Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton and Evan Longoria will be much more enjoyable to watch than the previous attempts with Fred McGriff, Jose Canseco and Greg Vaughn.

What I'm looking forward to seeing

Is Longoria ready for the bigs? Will he live up to the hype? Can Upton continue to hit like he did in '07? Is Shields really that good? Will Kazmir make it through a full season?

BALTIMORE ORIOLES

In general

Andy MacPhail is in to straighten this team out, and he's brought in a load of prospects -- mostly pitchers -- by dealing Miguel Tejada and Erik Bedard. Dumping Tejada days before his name appeared in the Mitchell Report was an added bonus. Now if he can keep making moves without owner Peter Angelos interfering -- note how long it took for the long-rumored Bedard deal to finally happen, and how long we've been hearing about Brian Roberts to the Cubs -- the O's may turn this around sooner than we think.

What I'm looking forward to seeing

There's not much. Maybe three: Is Nick Markakis a stud? Is Jeremy Guthrie really the best this pitching staff has? Can Adam Jones emerge as a leader?

Embedded baseball writing

Tom Verducci's outstanding first-person account of his five days spent as a player with the Toronto Blue Jays is a fascinating look into a major-league clubhouse. Spring training is definitely the time to do it. Had he managed to gain access for five days during the season in April (which, of course, wouldn't happen because those games count), his days would've been filled with milling around hotels, malls and playing video games.

Reading the article, which was essentially a journal of his week in Dunedin, in the magazine, took me back to 2001, when I covered the Lakewood BlueClaws. The Phillies and the BlueClaws gave me permission to join the club on a road trip for a feature article in the newspaper. Ideally, I would've gone on a slightly longer trip, one that took us to two cities in the South Atlantic League, but my duties in the office required me to choose a four-day, down-and-back trek to Greensboro, N.C. So on the last game of a homestand, I arrived at the ballpark with my computer, as usual, but also with a duffel bag for the trip. We left after the game, arriving at the Greensboro hotel sometime in the late morning. I quickly fell into the routine. Like Verducci with the Blue Jays, I found the BlueClaws players to be very accommodating. They were a bit more relaxed around me after that trip, talking more freely and openly after games and for stories. Interviews were no longer like pulling teeth, answers did not have to be coaxed out of them.

The night before we arrived, rain had soaked the field at 80-year-old War Memorial Stadium. It's so old that the war it refers to is World War I. The field has horrible drainage, so despite a hot, sunny August day, that night's game was postponed because the field was too soggy. With idle time, many of the players (as well as myself, the broadcaster, Neil Solondz, and the strength coach, who I spent most of my time with) navigated the overpass and the four-lane highway to get to a Best Buy visible from the hotel parking lot. On the way back, Neil, hitting coach Jeff Manto and I played a round of miniature golf.

I'd ride the bus to the ballpark with the players and was under even more deadline pressure to file my game stories. Once the final out was made, I'd already have a lede written up because then I had to hustle down to the cramped visitors' clubhouse down the right-field line, get the comments I needed, and zip back up to the press box to file my story before the bus left to return to the hotel.

One morning, I joined the workout group on a trip to a local gym and found myself riding a stationary bike in a line with Manto (who was the acting manager for the trip, with skipper Greg Legg having used these four days for his vacation that the Phillies allow each minor-league instructor to take during the season), the bus driver and several Greensboro residents.

The trip home was much like the ride down, leaving after the game and driving through the night, arriving back at the ballpark at 7:30 in the morning. Everyone then went home for a few hours' sleep before returning for that night's game.

I'll have to dig through my old disks to see if I have the original story to post here. If I do, it's probably the unedited version.

* * *
I also came across my scorebook from the 2002 BlueClaws season, when they hosted the South Atlantic League All-Star Game. Curious, I opened it up to see who played in that low-Class A midsummer classic. I remembered several names, but was surprised to be reminded of another.

The hometown BlueClaws featured Ryan Howard, now one of the Phillies' top prospects and the guy who hit 48 home runs at three levels last year. Also starting for the Northern Division was second baseman Jeff Keppinger, then with Pittsburgh's Hickory affiliate but now in the Mets' organization, and Jose Bautista, now the Pirates' starting second baseman. He played third back then for Hickory.

The Southern Division started Dodgers farmhand Victor Diaz at third; in two weeks he could find himself the Mets' starting right fielder if Mike Cameron isn't ready. The Mets featured three starters and four all-stars overall that year. Outfielder Angel Pagan was set to start in center and lead off, but was promoted days before the game. Catcher Justin Huber did get the start, but was traded last summer to the Royals. In left field was Jeff Duncan, who's since reached the big club.

But the name I'd forgotten was one I became aware of only a week or so before the game, when the all-star teams were announced. I hadn't pegged him as a prospect until then and I remember wondering just how long it might take this guy to get to the big leagues. He didn't start the game, but after two at bats by starting DH Scott Thorman of Macon, David Wright pinch-hit. He went 0-for-2 in the game, but 25 months later he made his major-league debut with the Mets.

Other SAL All-Stars of 2002 who have reached the majors include Willy Taveras of the Astros and Chris Young of the Rangers, who allowed the only hit in the game to the South (yes, it was a no-hitter until the eighth) but was credited with the win when the North scored three runs in the bottom of the inning.

It's a little surprising that, just two seasons later, I'm able to name so many players from low Class A who have already reached the majors. The first player from the SAL in 2001-02 who got to the bigs, I believe, was Houston reliever Mike Gallo. Now the all-stars are getting there. A few more should make it in the next year or two, but after that, if they're not there already, the dream is pretty much over.