Sports Illustrated baseball preview history: The 2011 update

It's really not a surprise, is it? The Phillies go out and land Cliff Lee, giving them -- on paper -- the best starting rotation since the 1993 Braves, and it lands the starting five on the cover of Sports Illustrated's baseball preview issue.

The only reason I balked and wondered if they'd go with Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford in Boston is because this Phillies cover is unprecedented. (Plus, a Boston cover wouldn't have been a stretch; the magazine does pick the Red Sox to beat the Giants in the World Series.) A team has been represented as the main cover image in consecutive years -- the Yankees in 2002-03, with the entire starting rotation on that '03 cover -- but never before has one player appeared in the cover's main image in back-to-back springs. Until now, until Roy Halladay. He had the cover to himself last year, and this week he's off to the side as the other four stand behind Lee, but the placement doesn't matter. In becoming just the fifth player to appear on the cover's centerpiece twice (joining Willie Mays, Steve Garvey, Mark McGwire and Derek Jeter), Halladay is the first to do it two years in a row.

I won't rehash the full breakdown from last year, but I will update the relevant statistics.

Team appearances:
Red Sox, 7
Yankees, 6
Phillies, 5
Cardinals, 5
Dodgers, 5
Orioles, 3
Giants, 3
Reds, 3
Mariners, 2
Indians, 2
Royals, 2
Twins, 2
Mets, 2
Pirates, 2
Tigers, 2
Brewers, 1
D-backs, 1
Rockies, 1
Cubs, 1
Rangers, 1
Padres, 1
A's, 1
Expos, 1
Angels, 1
Nationals, 1

That's a total of 61 teams on the covers (accounting for two or more players sharing the spotlight in some years). Through last season, 22 of those 60 teams (before this year's Phillies) made the playoffs, with the results as follows:

Won World Series, 6
Lost World Series, 5
Lost ALCS, 2
Lost NLCS, 1
Lost ALDS, 6
Lost NLDS, 2

The Phillies last year became the first featured club to fall in the NLCS. When it comes to regular-season standings, the editors have hit on top-two teams more than the other positions combined:

1st, 20
2nd, 13
3rd, 15
4th, 6
5th, 2
6th, 2
7th, 2

Here are a few more team-related numbers:

Won 100, 6
Lost 100, 2
Player with a new team, 12
Defending champs, 13

As for individual accolades, Halladay became the third player whose cover appearance foretold a Cy Young season, the third to win 20 games, the 36th to have an All-Star season and the 10th to lead the league in at least one major category:

Hall of Famers, 16
Retired, 2
MVP, 2
Cy Young, 3
All-Star, 36
Broke record, 2
20-game winner, 3
Led league, 11

And finally, by putting the Philly five on the cover, SI has widened the gap between starting pitchers and any other position (each player counts once, not as a group, meaning the starters went from 20 to 25):

C, 4
1B, 10
2B, 1
3B, 6
SS, 5
OF, 19
SP, 25
Manager, 2
Owner, 1

Moving forward, we have regional inset images to consider. They began in 2009 with Carl Crawford, Justin Morneau, Dustin Pedroia, Manny Ramirez, David Wright and Carlos Zambrano. Last year, they included Matt Kemp, John Lackey, Brian McCann, Albert Pujols, CC Sabathia and Troy Tulowitzki. This year, we have Robinson Cano and, presumably, others, but they're not online yet. I'll update when they appear.

The Giants' Jersey roots

Something occurred to me on Monday night as I watched the Giants celebrate their first World Series championship since moving to San Francisco. I looked over at my blue Jersey City Giants cap, the white "JC" outlined in red, and thought about the two minor league affiliates that used to play in Trenton and Jersey City. (The photo at right shows Hall of Famer Gabby Hartnett and his son in 1944. Hartnett managed the Jersey City Giants from 1943-45.) I then realized that the last five World Series winners all have or had minor-league ties to the Garden State:

• The Yankees' double-A affiliate is currently the Trenton Thunder.
• The Phillies' low-Class A affiliate is currently the Lakewood BlueClaws.
• The Red Sox' double-A affiliate used to be the Trenton Thunder.
• The Cardinals' short-season affiliate used to be the New Jersey Cardinals.

The Giants' connection isn't solely from the '40s, however, because their starting second baseman, Freddy Sanchez, played for the Thunder back when he was a shortstop in Boston's system. In fact, each of these past five champions have had significant contributions from someone who spent a season in New Jersey on his way to a World Series ring: Yankees second baseman Robinson Cano (2003-04 with Trenton); Phillies catcher Carlos Ruiz (2001 with Lakewood), first baseman Ryan Howard (2002 with Lakewood) and World Series MVP Cole Hamels (2003 with Lakewood); Red Sox first baseman Kevin Youkilis (44 games with Trenton in 2002) and Cardinals shortstop and World Series MVP David Eckstein (1999 with Trenton).

But the Giants may have the earliest New Jersey connection of any World Series champion (aside from the fact that the entire game itself was born in Hoboken): they held spring training in Lakewood back in 1897. I had known that they trained on John D. Rockefeller's Lakewood estate from 1943-45, when teams were restricted in their travel during World War II. But in searching for some articles on that, I came across a few in the New York Times archive describing the club's 1897 preseason preparations. I've included one here as an example.

New Jersey may not have a Major League team of its own, but it continues to make significant contributions to the game 164 years after its birth on the bluffs overlooking the Hudson.

Looking beyond the Verducci Effect

Tom Verducci has unveiled his red-flagged pitchers to watch this season (now with video!) for the dreaded Year-After Effect -- or the Verducci Effect, as Will Carroll dubbed it.

So watch out, Joba Chamberlain, Josh Johnson, Rick Porcello, Max Scherzer, Felix Hernandez and -- in a perfect storm of workload and managerial risk -- Homer Bailey.

Verducci's yearly analysis of young pitchers' innings increase (hurlers 25 and younger who set a career high in innings by more than 30), developed with help from Rick Peterson when he was the A's pitching coach, has been pretty accurate in forecasting either a drop in production (usually seen in a rising ERA) or, in the worst cases, injury the following season. Two of the most notable examples for the latter are Francisco Liriano and Anibal Sanchez. The disappointing 2009 seasons had by Cole Hamels and Mike Pelfrey support the former. And so Verducci's list of the pitchers to watch affects both fans who don't want to see their teams' hurlers named and fantasy owners, who may add a red flag to their rankings sheets in preparing for draft day.

But rehashing what Verducci has already done wouldn't add to the conversation. Inspired by Pelfrey's joining the club in '09, I was curious to see what happened to the pitchers Verducci singled out in the years after the Year-After Effect. In short: Can we hope for -- or expect -- improvement from Pelfrey in 2010? David Gassko looked at the general numbers a few years at The Hardball Times ago, but I'm curious about specific pitchers.

Through a combination of digging up old Verducci columns in which he listed a particular year's at-risk pitchers and use of Baseball-Reference's Play Index tool, I set out to put together a nearly complete all-time list of a "red-flag roster," going back to those to watch for the 2002 season. But that became cumbersome, so I edited where I felt it necessary and mostly left the prominent names, or at least those who seemed to have the most potential at that time. As Verducci says nearly every year in explaining his theory, the workload is just one factor in this analysis.

Below I've charted the pitchers' seasons that prompted the alarms (the one in which he exceeded his career high in innings by more than 30), the year-after season (the one Verducci warned us about) and his "year-after-after" season, the one immediately following the red-flagged campaign. In an effort to keep the charts manageable, I'm only including innings (rounded down; I'm not bothering with the fractions), ERA and WHIP, unfortunately omitting data like batting average against and BABIP. Most stats are MLB only, though in some cases full minor-league numbers are asterisked. If there's any combo of MLB and minor league figures, that's pointed out in the notes below the charts.

	1998 IP/ERA/WHIP	1999 IP/ERA/WHIP	2000 IP/ERA/WHIP	2001 IP/ERA/WHIP
Omar Daal	162/2.88/1.21	214/3.65/1.24	167/6.14/1.68	185/4.46/1.37
Sidney Ponson	135/5.27/1.47	210/4.71/1.46	222/4.82/1.38	138/4.94/1.43
Kevin Millwood	174/4.08/1.33	228/2.68/1.00	212/4.66/1.29	121/4.31/1.33

Daal was actually 27 years old and in his seventh Major League season in 1999, the year his innings jumped by 52, so he was outside the at-risk age range, yet he still had a precipitous fall -- and never posted an ERA below 3.90 again. Ponson's innings actually went up in his red-flag year, but we've since learned that he has general problems with restraint and conditioning. Millwood led the NL in WHIP and the Majors with just 6.6 hits per nine innings allowed in 2000. He's had the longest (assuming Ponson doesn't try to stick with a last-place club again) and most productive career, but he did take another step back in 2001.

	1999 IP/ERA/WHIP	2000 IP/ERA/WHIP	2001 IP/ERA/WHIP	2002 IP/ERA/WHIP
Albie Lopez	64/4.64/1.41	185/4.13/1.45	205/4.81/1.46	55/4.37/1.51
Mac Suzuki	110/6.79/1.71	188/4.34/1.53	118/5.86/1.65	21/9.00/1.95
Ryan Dempster	147/4.71/1.63	226/3.66/1.36	211/4.94/1.56	209/5.38/1.54

Another trio with just one pitcher still active. Lopez's jump from 1999 to 2000 (when he was 28) was tremendous -- and after his red-flag season of 2001, he pitched just 78 more innings in the Majors, less than his increase from '99-2000. Suzuki was finished after 2002. Dempster led the Majors in walks in his red-flag year, but after a three-year stint as a closer, he became an All-Star again (as he was in his breakout year of 2000).

	2000 IP/ERA/WHIP	2001 IP/ERA/WHIP	2002 IP/ERA/WHIP	2003 IP/ERA/WHIP
Mark Mulder	154/5.44/1.69	229/3.45/1.16	207/3.47/1.14	186/3.13/1.18
Brad Penny	119/4.81/1.50	205/3.69/1.16	129/4.66/1.53	196/4.13/1.28
Chad Durbin	72/8.21/1.85	179/4.93/1.45	8/11.88/2.04	8/7.27/2.42
Joe Mays	176/5.52/1.58	233/3.16/1.15	95/5.38/1.45	130/6.30/1.52
Freddy Garcia	124/3.91/1.42	238/3.05/1.12	223/4.39/1.30	201/4.51/1.33
Mark Buehrle	51/4.21/1.44	221/3.29/1.07	239/3.58/1.24	230/4.14/1.35
Tony Armas	95/4.36/1.31	196/4.03/1.38	164/4.44/1.38	31/2.61/1.07
Chris Carpenter	175/6.26/1.64	215/4.09/1.41	73/5.28/1.58	INJURED
CC Sabathia	146/3.57/1.33*	180/4.39/1.35	210/4.37/1.36	197/3.60/1.30

In his breakout year, Mulder led the AL with 21 wins and paced the Majors with four shutouts. He didn't have much of a dropoff in 2002 or '03 (though he pitched fewer innings). The signs came instead in '04 (225/4.43/1.36), after which the A's traded him to the Cardinals. After a decent '05 (205/3.64/1.38), he's never been the same. Penny saw an improvement in his 2003 numbers -- but none of this considers the Alyssa Effect.

With Durbin's '02 and '03 numbers so low, I checked his minor league numbers and saw that he pitched only eight in 2002 (injured), and 82 in 2003 (working his way back). But the reason I'm not too concerned with minor league numbers after the red-flag year is because I'm only interested in what these pitchers contribute to the big-league club. If they're still active in the Majors, we know they made it back.

Mays' breakout years was the only Major League season in which he posted a sub-4.00 ERA. Garcia went on to have a couple of productive years with the White Sox before his arm troubles began in recent seasons. With the exception of 2005 (3.12) and 2006 (4.99), all of Buehrle's ERAs have been between 3.50 and 4.00 and his WHIPs have been between 1.25 and 1.35 except for '05 (1.18) and '06 (1.47), so that's the kind of pitcher he is. Plus, he's got a no-hitter and perfect game on his resume. Armas' small sample size of 31 innings are key, because his ERA has been higher than 4.80 ever since.

And then we have two Cy Young Award winners. Carpenter missed 2003 after surgery, then went to the Cardinals (and pitching coach/healer Dave Duncan) and won 15, 21 and 15 games (and a Cy Young) before more surgery -- and then nearly won the award again in 2009. Sabathia's 2000 numbers are all from the minor leagues; '01 was his rookie year. He's steadily improved since, winning the Cy Young in '07 and avoiding the catastrophic injuries that several times have been predicted.

	2001 IP/ERA/WHIP	2002 IP/ERA/WHIP	2003 IP/ERA/WHIP	2004 IP/ERA/WHIP
Vicente Padilla	34/4.24/1.41	206/3.28/1.22	208/3.62/1.24	115/4.53/1.34
Roy Oswalt	141/2.73/1.06	233/3.01/1.19	127/2.97/1.14	237/3.49/1.25
Ben Sheets	151/4.76/1.41	216/4.15/1.41	220/4.45/1.25	237/2.70/0.98
Jake Peavy	28/2.57/1.11*	97/4.52/1.42	194/4.11/1.31	166/2.27/1.20

I omitted Runelvys Hernandez from this group because he was one of several Royals in the early part of the decade who was overworked and flamed out. Plus, his entire 2001 season and much of '02, when his innings shot up, were in the minors, and I didn't feel like doing all the math. And Andy Van Hekken was flagged for 2003, but one look at his page there and you'll see why I didn't bother including him.

From 2004-06, Oswalt finished in the top four of Cy Young Award voting and added a third straight All-Star season in '07. Since then, he's seen a bit of a drop-off. Sheets' best season to date came in 2004, when he fanned 264 and led the Majors in K/BB at 8.25. His record was just 12-14 for a Brewers team that went 67-94, which is why I'm not including won-loss records in this analysis. I still wish the Mets had signed him. Peavy's 2001 numbers are from the minors and his 2004 ERA remains a career best, better even than in his '07 Cy Young season.

	2002 IP/ERA/WHIP	2003 IP/ERA/WHIP	2004 IP/ERA/WHIP	2005 IP/ERA/WHIP
Carlos Zambrano	108/3.66/1.45	214/3.11/1.32	209/2.75/1.22	223/3.26/1.15
Dontrelle Willis	157/1.83/0.88*	197/2.97/1.21	197/4.02/1.38	236/2.63/1.13

Zambrano has remained pretty consistent -- right through his consistent, gradual decline the past couple of seasons. But he's apparently rededicated himself heading into 2010. Willis finished second in the NL Cy Young voting in '05 (to Carpenter, a fellow Verducci Effect alum) but has had other problems since.

	2003 IP/ERA/WHIP	2004 IP/ERA/WHIP	2005 IP/ERA/WHIP	2006 IP/ERA/WHIP
Carlos Silva	87/4.43/1.48	203/4.21/1.43	188/3.44/1.17	180/5.94/1.54
Jason Marquis	134/4.03/1.40	201/3.71/1.42	207/4.13/1.33	194/6.02/1.52

Silva's 2003 innings represent his entire year, all of it in the Majors. Seattle has gotten five wins and 18 losses since signing him before 2008. Marquis' first year in St. Louis was 2006, but he turned it around after that, even finding success in Colorado in an All-Star '09.

	2004 IP/ERA/WHIP	2005 IP/ERA/WHIP	2006 IP/ERA/WHIP	2007 IP/ERA/WHIP
Scott Kazmir	134/3.29/1.31	186/3.77/1.46	144/3.24/1.27	206/3.48/1.38
Matt Cain	158/2.67/1.19*	192/3.89/1.22	190/4.15/1.28	200/3.64/1.26
Francisco Liriano	156/3.79/1.42*	191/3.02/1.06	121/2.16/1.00	INJURED
Zach Duke	148/1.46/0.97*	192/2.44/1.21	215/4.47/1.50	107/5.53/1.73
Paul Maholm	60/3.43/1.44*	158/3.02/1.26	176/4.76/1.61	177/5.02/1.42

Kazmir -- there he is again. Would definitely be useful in Citi Field, but he hasn't yet become the Cy Young winner everyone thought he would. The Effect hasn't hurt Cain too much since '06, despite his 15-30 combined record in '07-08, which had a lot to do with terrible run support. The Twins tried to bring along Liriano (whose 2005 innings include the minors) slowly, as they did with Johan Santana, by pitching him out of the bullpen to ease him in. It didn't work. Duke led the Majors with 255 hits allowed in '06 but made strides last year, getting his ERA back down to 4.06 and his WHIP to 1.32. Maholm has also had two decent seasons since, posting ERAs for 3.71 and 4.44 and WHIPs of 1.28 and, less impressive, 1.44.

	2005 IP/ERA/WHIP	2006 IP/ERA/WHIP	2007 IP/ERA/WHIP	2008 IP/ERA/WHIP
Cole Hamels	35/2.31/1.03*	132/4.08/1.25	183/3.39/1.12	227/3.09/1.08
Justin Verlander	130/1.80/0.98	186/3.63/1.33	201/3.66/1.23	201/4.84/1.40
Anibal Sanchez	136/2.85/1.07*	200/2.97/1.23	30/4.80/2.07	51/5.57/1.57
Jered Weaver	76/3.91/1.24*	200/2.39/1.00	161/3.91/1.39	176/4.33/1.29

Hamels' 35 minor-league innings in '05 were all he threw, but his previous career high was 101, so while his jump wasn't as big, it still fit the parameters. He then became a two-time Verducci Effecter with his huge jump in 2008 -- and those numbers don't include his 35 postseason innings. Verlander's '05 numbers are mostly from the minors, and it wasn't until 2009 that he seemed to get back on track. This is the year we'll see if Sanchez (whose '06 numbers include the Minors) can regain his no-hit stuff. Weaver's WHIP in '08 is a good sign. And it went down again (1.24) in '09, along with his ERA (3.75).

This was a big year for red-flagged pitchers. With all these big names, I decided to skip Sean Marshall, Scott Olsen and Jeremy Bonderman, as well as several who haven't really been heard from since, incluing Adam Loewen, who has given up pitching and trying the Rick Ankiel route.

	2006 IP/ERA/WHIP	2007 IP/ERA/WHIP	2008 IP/ERA/WHIP	2009 IP/ERA/WHIP
Ian Kennedy	104/3.81/1.35*	165/1.91/0.99	116/4.27/1.30	23/1.59/1.10
Fausto Carmona	101/5.52/1.53	215/3.06/1.21	120/5.44/1.62	125/6.32/1.76
Ubaldo Jimenez	151/3.80/1.36*	185/5.16/1.51	198/3.99/1.44	218/3.47/1.23
Tom Gorzelanny	61/3.79/1.31	201/3.88/1.40	105/6.66/1.80	47/1.32/5.55
Yovani Gallardo	155/1.86/1.00*	188/3.35/1.18	41/3.07/1.34	185/3.73/1.31

All of Kennedy's numbers include a mix of Majors and minors, and 2006 is actually college and minors -- with only 2 2/3 innings in at short-season Staten Island. So those underwhelming stats are mostly with USC. Any further comeback from his recent injuries will be in Arizona after this offseason's trade. Carmona's '06 has 27 minor-league innings, and so far, his breakout '07 is a fluke.

Jimenez is an interesting case. He also pitched seven innings with the Rockies in '06, but I left those out. His '07 totals don't include the 16 postseason innings he pitched, which put him over the threshold for Verducci's list. And despite the red flag last year of pitching in the World Baseball Classic, he truly had a breakout season at 25. So perhaps this year we'll see a fall.

Gorzelanny has minor league numbers all around -- in '06, '08 and '09 -- that aren't included. He'll be 27 in July, so this is the year we'll know what we'll get from the big lefty -- if we don't already. The Brewers may have caught a break with Gallardo, who injured his knee covering first base in 2008 and had his innings limited that season. He posted decent numbers last year, so we'll see how he progresses this summer. Dustin McGowan was part of this class, too, but surgery knocked out his '09 season, so there are no further numbers for comparison.

Better late than never for another Mets opener

Ryan Howard's three-run home run in the sixth inning silenced Shea Stadium. The Mets had just taken a 3-2 lead in the bottom of the fifth despite John Maine's struggles. Willie Randolph turned over the game to the bullpen, starting with Ambiorix Burgos, who got ahead of Howard, 1-2. All he needed to do was keep the ball out of the middle of the plate, fool him with a splitter or an off-speed pitch that would get the struggling, free-swinging NL MVP to chase a pitch.

But Burgos' splitter remained whole over the heart of the plate, right in Howard's wheelhouse, and the big left-hander seemed to flick his bat at it, turning his wrists over effortlessly and driving the ball through a swirling, slicing wind. Shawn Green gave chase in right-center, but it didn't matter.

The Phillies led, 5-3.

Two runs shouldn't be a problem for the Mets, but the fans -- a Shea Opening Day record 56,227 -- sensed the team's funk. Cole Hamels was baffling the Mets with his changeup, even if his fastball barely reached 90 mph on a frigid afternoon. Only John Valentin, who lined a two-run single earlier to give the Mets a 2-1 lead and hit another ball hard and true for a line-out, seemed to have a good read on Hamels. The bottom of the sixth went by quietly and even though the Mets cut it to 5-4 with a run in the seventh, Shea didn't hold the same electricity it would on another day.

Maybe that listlessness was because the seventh produced only one run, despite the heart of the order coming to bat. Maybe David Wright's lineout to end the inning -- on a spectacular diving catch by Shane Victorino in right field -- to strand two runners seemed like the last great hope. After all, our hopes in the eighth would be in the hands of a newcomer in Moises Alou, the seemingly slowing bat of Shawn Green and Valentin.

But the Phillies bullpen is their biggest flaw, and as the team warmed up for the bottom of the eighth, I turned to my friend Dave with a thought.

"You know, a few years ago, Derek Bell got in the fans' good graces with a home run in the eighth to beat the Padres," I said, recalling another cold -- though not this cold -- opener that was tied at 1 when Bell lined a Donne Wall pitch into the bleachers in left field. "Maybe today is Moises' turn."

And it was Alou who got things going with a single to the gap in right-center in the eighth inning. Philadelphia's Aaron Rowand made a diving attempt, but the ball scooted off of his glove. I won't replay the whole inning, because it's easily accessible, but once Alou came to bat again in the inning and delivered a two-run single, Dave and I felt it was an acceptable time to leave our seats, get the blood flowing again in our legs, and start making our way down from the upper deck and toward the exits. We watched from the platform as Billy Wagner fanned two to end it in the ninth, the closer in the game despite an 11-5 score because he had already warmed up when it was merely 6-5.

Making it ever sweeter was Jimmy Rollins' role, the key error on a ball that never would've been a double play with Jose Reyes running down the line. There are some who say it doesn't matter how outs are made -- a strikeout is no worse than a groundout or flyout -- but I'd much rather have Reyes hit a ground ball with the bases loaded and the Mets down by a run than strike out. The chances of turning a double play with Reyes running are slim, and if the fielder doesn't realize that, errors happen. Just ask Rollins. It's only seven games, but seeing the Phillies at 1-6 after Rollins' offseason boasting -- which may come up during each and every series these two teams play -- does make me smile.

The eighth inning brought Shea alive again, the fans breaking the ice on their lungs and cheering each hit, each run and, of course, Rollins. The sing-song chant of "JI-MMY ROLL-INS! JI-MMY ROLL-INS!" began with two outs and continued as he trotted off the field following the final batter of the frame. The fans were smiling again, and the wind seemed to have stopped, even if it was still, technically, swirling. The afternoon felt warm again.

Yesterday's win puts the Mets at 7-1 in the eight straight openers we've attended, the lone loss coming at the hands of the Cubs in 2003, when Corey Patterson hit two homers and drove in seven runs in Tom Glavine's Mets debut. And once again, things look bright after the first game in Queens.

Oh, the timing

In light of Cole Hamels' recent scuffle, could the timing of the Phillies recent organizational report in Baseball America (registration required) come at a worse time?

The Phillies held a "leadership seminar" for 16 prospects, among them Gavin Floyd, Ryan Howard and Hamels. There were no workouts, no pitching, no hitting. Instead, the seminar likely consisted of lectures and discussions with the four administrators who ran it: assistant general manager Mike Arbuckle, farm director Steve Noworyta, director of Latin American operations Sal Artiaga and employee assistance specialist Dickie Noles.

According to BA, "The players participated in workshops dealing with mental toughness, setting and reaching goals, and how to deal with media. They also heard of the dangers of alcohol and drug abuse, including steroids."

"I sensed the kids got a lot out of it," Noworyta told the magazine.

Looks like Hamels might need a refresher.

Shades of Brien Taylor

I've only seen anything close to the inner workings of one Major League ballclub, that of the Phillies from my two years covering their affiliate in the South Atlantic League, the Lakewood BlueClaws. As a result, I managed to interview, at least once, the likes of Ed Wade, Steve Noworyta, Mike Arbuckle, Dave Montgomery, Greg Legg, Jeff Manto, Johnny Podres, Dallas Green, Larry Bowa and a few others. Each one, in some way, touched upon one thing with regard to the types of players it looks for in its farm system and that is "good young men."

The recent incident in which pitching prospect Cole Hamels broke his hand could not have gone over well in the Clearwater offices — or even those in Philadelphia. If the police account is true, the Phillies' feelings will almost certainly go much deeper than the "disappointment" expressed in Wade's statement. Hamels was drafted with caution, following his broken arm in high school, but came with an abundance of potential and upside. His first year in the organization — in Lakewood the summer after I switched jobs — showed tremendous ability. In 74.2 innings at low-A Lakewood (his debut), he went 6-1 with a 0.84 ERA and 115 strikeouts. Promoted just two days before I was going to catch his start at Lakewood, he finished the season in Clearwater, where he was winless, but had an ERA of 2.73.

Having missed most of last season because of biceps tendinitis (after an impressive "major league" debut in spring training, when he fanned both Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter), this is exactly what the Phillies did not want to see. A hint of what the Phillies might think lies in Wade's statement — "he put himself in a position that slows his development" — and, for Hamels' sake, I hope he's able to make a speedy recovery.

As for the Phillies, they have their own fans to deal with, too. I love how the court documents note that the man attempted to catch the foul ball over which he's suing the team, rather than making any attempts to protect himself. Maybe this guy thinks $50,000 will soothe his embarassment. I mean, really. You go to a ballgame, you have decent seats in the lower level. You see there's a screen there to protect a swath of seats. If you're behind the screen — great, you're not likely to get beaned, though you have little to no chance of any souvenirs. If you're seated just beyond the coverage of the screen, then perhaps you should be alert and note when any horsehide spheres come hurtling your way.

I bet the guy in front of him ducked.

Actually, if that had happened, he'd probably be suing that fan, too.