Looking beyond the Verducci Effect

Tom Verducci has unveiled his red-flagged pitchers to watch this season (now with video!) for the dreaded Year-After Effect -- or the Verducci Effect, as Will Carroll dubbed it.

So watch out, Joba Chamberlain, Josh Johnson, Rick Porcello, Max Scherzer, Felix Hernandez and -- in a perfect storm of workload and managerial risk -- Homer Bailey.

Verducci's yearly analysis of young pitchers' innings increase (hurlers 25 and younger who set a career high in innings by more than 30), developed with help from Rick Peterson when he was the A's pitching coach, has been pretty accurate in forecasting either a drop in production (usually seen in a rising ERA) or, in the worst cases, injury the following season. Two of the most notable examples for the latter are Francisco Liriano and Anibal Sanchez. The disappointing 2009 seasons had by Cole Hamels and Mike Pelfrey support the former. And so Verducci's list of the pitchers to watch affects both fans who don't want to see their teams' hurlers named and fantasy owners, who may add a red flag to their rankings sheets in preparing for draft day.

But rehashing what Verducci has already done wouldn't add to the conversation. Inspired by Pelfrey's joining the club in '09, I was curious to see what happened to the pitchers Verducci singled out in the years after the Year-After Effect. In short: Can we hope for -- or expect -- improvement from Pelfrey in 2010? David Gassko looked at the general numbers a few years at The Hardball Times ago, but I'm curious about specific pitchers.

Through a combination of digging up old Verducci columns in which he listed a particular year's at-risk pitchers and use of Baseball-Reference's Play Index tool, I set out to put together a nearly complete all-time list of a "red-flag roster," going back to those to watch for the 2002 season. But that became cumbersome, so I edited where I felt it necessary and mostly left the prominent names, or at least those who seemed to have the most potential at that time. As Verducci says nearly every year in explaining his theory, the workload is just one factor in this analysis.

Below I've charted the pitchers' seasons that prompted the alarms (the one in which he exceeded his career high in innings by more than 30), the year-after season (the one Verducci warned us about) and his "year-after-after" season, the one immediately following the red-flagged campaign. In an effort to keep the charts manageable, I'm only including innings (rounded down; I'm not bothering with the fractions), ERA and WHIP, unfortunately omitting data like batting average against and BABIP. Most stats are MLB only, though in some cases full minor-league numbers are asterisked. If there's any combo of MLB and minor league figures, that's pointed out in the notes below the charts.

	1998 IP/ERA/WHIP	1999 IP/ERA/WHIP	2000 IP/ERA/WHIP	2001 IP/ERA/WHIP
Omar Daal	162/2.88/1.21	214/3.65/1.24	167/6.14/1.68	185/4.46/1.37
Sidney Ponson	135/5.27/1.47	210/4.71/1.46	222/4.82/1.38	138/4.94/1.43
Kevin Millwood	174/4.08/1.33	228/2.68/1.00	212/4.66/1.29	121/4.31/1.33

Daal was actually 27 years old and in his seventh Major League season in 1999, the year his innings jumped by 52, so he was outside the at-risk age range, yet he still had a precipitous fall -- and never posted an ERA below 3.90 again. Ponson's innings actually went up in his red-flag year, but we've since learned that he has general problems with restraint and conditioning. Millwood led the NL in WHIP and the Majors with just 6.6 hits per nine innings allowed in 2000. He's had the longest (assuming Ponson doesn't try to stick with a last-place club again) and most productive career, but he did take another step back in 2001.

	1999 IP/ERA/WHIP	2000 IP/ERA/WHIP	2001 IP/ERA/WHIP	2002 IP/ERA/WHIP
Albie Lopez	64/4.64/1.41	185/4.13/1.45	205/4.81/1.46	55/4.37/1.51
Mac Suzuki	110/6.79/1.71	188/4.34/1.53	118/5.86/1.65	21/9.00/1.95
Ryan Dempster	147/4.71/1.63	226/3.66/1.36	211/4.94/1.56	209/5.38/1.54

Another trio with just one pitcher still active. Lopez's jump from 1999 to 2000 (when he was 28) was tremendous -- and after his red-flag season of 2001, he pitched just 78 more innings in the Majors, less than his increase from '99-2000. Suzuki was finished after 2002. Dempster led the Majors in walks in his red-flag year, but after a three-year stint as a closer, he became an All-Star again (as he was in his breakout year of 2000).

	2000 IP/ERA/WHIP	2001 IP/ERA/WHIP	2002 IP/ERA/WHIP	2003 IP/ERA/WHIP
Mark Mulder	154/5.44/1.69	229/3.45/1.16	207/3.47/1.14	186/3.13/1.18
Brad Penny	119/4.81/1.50	205/3.69/1.16	129/4.66/1.53	196/4.13/1.28
Chad Durbin	72/8.21/1.85	179/4.93/1.45	8/11.88/2.04	8/7.27/2.42
Joe Mays	176/5.52/1.58	233/3.16/1.15	95/5.38/1.45	130/6.30/1.52
Freddy Garcia	124/3.91/1.42	238/3.05/1.12	223/4.39/1.30	201/4.51/1.33
Mark Buehrle	51/4.21/1.44	221/3.29/1.07	239/3.58/1.24	230/4.14/1.35
Tony Armas	95/4.36/1.31	196/4.03/1.38	164/4.44/1.38	31/2.61/1.07
Chris Carpenter	175/6.26/1.64	215/4.09/1.41	73/5.28/1.58	INJURED
CC Sabathia	146/3.57/1.33*	180/4.39/1.35	210/4.37/1.36	197/3.60/1.30

In his breakout year, Mulder led the AL with 21 wins and paced the Majors with four shutouts. He didn't have much of a dropoff in 2002 or '03 (though he pitched fewer innings). The signs came instead in '04 (225/4.43/1.36), after which the A's traded him to the Cardinals. After a decent '05 (205/3.64/1.38), he's never been the same. Penny saw an improvement in his 2003 numbers -- but none of this considers the Alyssa Effect.

With Durbin's '02 and '03 numbers so low, I checked his minor league numbers and saw that he pitched only eight in 2002 (injured), and 82 in 2003 (working his way back). But the reason I'm not too concerned with minor league numbers after the red-flag year is because I'm only interested in what these pitchers contribute to the big-league club. If they're still active in the Majors, we know they made it back.

Mays' breakout years was the only Major League season in which he posted a sub-4.00 ERA. Garcia went on to have a couple of productive years with the White Sox before his arm troubles began in recent seasons. With the exception of 2005 (3.12) and 2006 (4.99), all of Buehrle's ERAs have been between 3.50 and 4.00 and his WHIPs have been between 1.25 and 1.35 except for '05 (1.18) and '06 (1.47), so that's the kind of pitcher he is. Plus, he's got a no-hitter and perfect game on his resume. Armas' small sample size of 31 innings are key, because his ERA has been higher than 4.80 ever since.

And then we have two Cy Young Award winners. Carpenter missed 2003 after surgery, then went to the Cardinals (and pitching coach/healer Dave Duncan) and won 15, 21 and 15 games (and a Cy Young) before more surgery -- and then nearly won the award again in 2009. Sabathia's 2000 numbers are all from the minor leagues; '01 was his rookie year. He's steadily improved since, winning the Cy Young in '07 and avoiding the catastrophic injuries that several times have been predicted.

	2001 IP/ERA/WHIP	2002 IP/ERA/WHIP	2003 IP/ERA/WHIP	2004 IP/ERA/WHIP
Vicente Padilla	34/4.24/1.41	206/3.28/1.22	208/3.62/1.24	115/4.53/1.34
Roy Oswalt	141/2.73/1.06	233/3.01/1.19	127/2.97/1.14	237/3.49/1.25
Ben Sheets	151/4.76/1.41	216/4.15/1.41	220/4.45/1.25	237/2.70/0.98
Jake Peavy	28/2.57/1.11*	97/4.52/1.42	194/4.11/1.31	166/2.27/1.20

I omitted Runelvys Hernandez from this group because he was one of several Royals in the early part of the decade who was overworked and flamed out. Plus, his entire 2001 season and much of '02, when his innings shot up, were in the minors, and I didn't feel like doing all the math. And Andy Van Hekken was flagged for 2003, but one look at his page there and you'll see why I didn't bother including him.

From 2004-06, Oswalt finished in the top four of Cy Young Award voting and added a third straight All-Star season in '07. Since then, he's seen a bit of a drop-off. Sheets' best season to date came in 2004, when he fanned 264 and led the Majors in K/BB at 8.25. His record was just 12-14 for a Brewers team that went 67-94, which is why I'm not including won-loss records in this analysis. I still wish the Mets had signed him. Peavy's 2001 numbers are from the minors and his 2004 ERA remains a career best, better even than in his '07 Cy Young season.

	2002 IP/ERA/WHIP	2003 IP/ERA/WHIP	2004 IP/ERA/WHIP	2005 IP/ERA/WHIP
Carlos Zambrano	108/3.66/1.45	214/3.11/1.32	209/2.75/1.22	223/3.26/1.15
Dontrelle Willis	157/1.83/0.88*	197/2.97/1.21	197/4.02/1.38	236/2.63/1.13

Zambrano has remained pretty consistent -- right through his consistent, gradual decline the past couple of seasons. But he's apparently rededicated himself heading into 2010. Willis finished second in the NL Cy Young voting in '05 (to Carpenter, a fellow Verducci Effect alum) but has had other problems since.

	2003 IP/ERA/WHIP	2004 IP/ERA/WHIP	2005 IP/ERA/WHIP	2006 IP/ERA/WHIP
Carlos Silva	87/4.43/1.48	203/4.21/1.43	188/3.44/1.17	180/5.94/1.54
Jason Marquis	134/4.03/1.40	201/3.71/1.42	207/4.13/1.33	194/6.02/1.52

Silva's 2003 innings represent his entire year, all of it in the Majors. Seattle has gotten five wins and 18 losses since signing him before 2008. Marquis' first year in St. Louis was 2006, but he turned it around after that, even finding success in Colorado in an All-Star '09.

	2004 IP/ERA/WHIP	2005 IP/ERA/WHIP	2006 IP/ERA/WHIP	2007 IP/ERA/WHIP
Scott Kazmir	134/3.29/1.31	186/3.77/1.46	144/3.24/1.27	206/3.48/1.38
Matt Cain	158/2.67/1.19*	192/3.89/1.22	190/4.15/1.28	200/3.64/1.26
Francisco Liriano	156/3.79/1.42*	191/3.02/1.06	121/2.16/1.00	INJURED
Zach Duke	148/1.46/0.97*	192/2.44/1.21	215/4.47/1.50	107/5.53/1.73
Paul Maholm	60/3.43/1.44*	158/3.02/1.26	176/4.76/1.61	177/5.02/1.42

Kazmir -- there he is again. Would definitely be useful in Citi Field, but he hasn't yet become the Cy Young winner everyone thought he would. The Effect hasn't hurt Cain too much since '06, despite his 15-30 combined record in '07-08, which had a lot to do with terrible run support. The Twins tried to bring along Liriano (whose 2005 innings include the minors) slowly, as they did with Johan Santana, by pitching him out of the bullpen to ease him in. It didn't work. Duke led the Majors with 255 hits allowed in '06 but made strides last year, getting his ERA back down to 4.06 and his WHIP to 1.32. Maholm has also had two decent seasons since, posting ERAs for 3.71 and 4.44 and WHIPs of 1.28 and, less impressive, 1.44.

	2005 IP/ERA/WHIP	2006 IP/ERA/WHIP	2007 IP/ERA/WHIP	2008 IP/ERA/WHIP
Cole Hamels	35/2.31/1.03*	132/4.08/1.25	183/3.39/1.12	227/3.09/1.08
Justin Verlander	130/1.80/0.98	186/3.63/1.33	201/3.66/1.23	201/4.84/1.40
Anibal Sanchez	136/2.85/1.07*	200/2.97/1.23	30/4.80/2.07	51/5.57/1.57
Jered Weaver	76/3.91/1.24*	200/2.39/1.00	161/3.91/1.39	176/4.33/1.29

Hamels' 35 minor-league innings in '05 were all he threw, but his previous career high was 101, so while his jump wasn't as big, it still fit the parameters. He then became a two-time Verducci Effecter with his huge jump in 2008 -- and those numbers don't include his 35 postseason innings. Verlander's '05 numbers are mostly from the minors, and it wasn't until 2009 that he seemed to get back on track. This is the year we'll see if Sanchez (whose '06 numbers include the Minors) can regain his no-hit stuff. Weaver's WHIP in '08 is a good sign. And it went down again (1.24) in '09, along with his ERA (3.75).

This was a big year for red-flagged pitchers. With all these big names, I decided to skip Sean Marshall, Scott Olsen and Jeremy Bonderman, as well as several who haven't really been heard from since, incluing Adam Loewen, who has given up pitching and trying the Rick Ankiel route.

	2006 IP/ERA/WHIP	2007 IP/ERA/WHIP	2008 IP/ERA/WHIP	2009 IP/ERA/WHIP
Ian Kennedy	104/3.81/1.35*	165/1.91/0.99	116/4.27/1.30	23/1.59/1.10
Fausto Carmona	101/5.52/1.53	215/3.06/1.21	120/5.44/1.62	125/6.32/1.76
Ubaldo Jimenez	151/3.80/1.36*	185/5.16/1.51	198/3.99/1.44	218/3.47/1.23
Tom Gorzelanny	61/3.79/1.31	201/3.88/1.40	105/6.66/1.80	47/1.32/5.55
Yovani Gallardo	155/1.86/1.00*	188/3.35/1.18	41/3.07/1.34	185/3.73/1.31

All of Kennedy's numbers include a mix of Majors and minors, and 2006 is actually college and minors -- with only 2 2/3 innings in at short-season Staten Island. So those underwhelming stats are mostly with USC. Any further comeback from his recent injuries will be in Arizona after this offseason's trade. Carmona's '06 has 27 minor-league innings, and so far, his breakout '07 is a fluke.

Jimenez is an interesting case. He also pitched seven innings with the Rockies in '06, but I left those out. His '07 totals don't include the 16 postseason innings he pitched, which put him over the threshold for Verducci's list. And despite the red flag last year of pitching in the World Baseball Classic, he truly had a breakout season at 25. So perhaps this year we'll see a fall.

Gorzelanny has minor league numbers all around -- in '06, '08 and '09 -- that aren't included. He'll be 27 in July, so this is the year we'll know what we'll get from the big lefty -- if we don't already. The Brewers may have caught a break with Gallardo, who injured his knee covering first base in 2008 and had his innings limited that season. He posted decent numbers last year, so we'll see how he progresses this summer. Dustin McGowan was part of this class, too, but surgery knocked out his '09 season, so there are no further numbers for comparison.

The time is Wright for a walk-off

David Wright's walk-off homer, Aug. 7, 2008
Originally uploaded by NJ Baseball

On Wednesday night, I turned to a co-worker after David Wright committed the error that allowed the Padres to tie the game. "He needs a day off tomorrow," I said. After baserunning blunders the last two nights, some limp at-bats in clutch situations, and now this error, he looked worn down, sluggish. He looked like he needed a break.

Thankfully, he talked Jerry Manuel out of it. Wright had three hits and belted his first career walk-off home run on Thursday afternoon at Shea. That it came after Scott Schoeneweis could not hold a one-run lead in the ninth -- giving up a game-tying homer to Jody Gerut of all people -- was barely remembered on the 7 train back toward Manhattan. Though there are plenty of Mets fans who are only happy when they're bitching about something (Scott Kazmir actually came up, again, on the train ride back. Get over it, people), Wright rounding the bases was the lasting image in my mind as I counted the stops to 74th and Broadway and an escape from the packed, stuffy car.

I'm heading back to the ballpark tonight, my wife and I, for one more first-time-and-last-time experience at Shea: We're sitting in the picnic area. In 23 years of attending games there, I've only looked down at Shea's small section of bleachers and watched the home runs land there. Mostly a group-seating area, it is only opened for general purchase for certain games, and tonight was one of them. With just 27 dates remaining on Shea's calendar (postseason TBD), the opportunities are dwindling.

And for the first time in at least a decade, I'm going to have to bring my glove to the game.

Not sure what to think about the Milledge deal

I'm confused by this deal. Two things are obvious, or seem so:

1.) Johnny Estrada will be flipped elsewhere.
2.) The Mets aren't getting Johan Santana.

Brian Schneider will team with Ramon Castro, perhaps as something close to a straight platoon, since they bat left and right, respectively. And since the Mets just signed Castro to a two-year deal, Estrada is the one out. He can also be non-tendered and become a free agent, which makes the deal to get him basically a Guillermo Mota contract dump. Nothing wrong with that, either.

As for Santana, I don't see how the Mets could land him if, as reports have said, the Twins aren't wild about the Mets' pitching prospects and now they've dealt one of their younger outfielders. Would Omar Minaya trade Carlos Gomez away now that Milledge is gone? I doubt it. It looks like Church and Gomez will team up to be the right-field platoon ... and then both will start the 40 games Moises Alou misses.

This does balance out the Mets, as Marty Noble points out, though Bill Ladson's source may be misguided if he thinks Church will be the everyday right fielder. I'm not so sure of that. Shawn Green is definitely gone now. Church is effectively Green, minus four years. In 14 more games, Church hit five more homers, drove in 24 more runs and hit .019 points lower (.291 to .272), which really isn't too bad. Church is a better defender, too.

It makes for an interesting dynamic in D.C. It's clear Milledge has talent at the plate, and his defensive shortcomings were one reason the Mets were willing to deal him. But he's also had attitude issues, and so putting him on a team with Wily Mo Pena and, perhaps more importantly, Dmitri Young will be interesting. To his credit, though, Young had a stellar season under the radar, causing no problems on or off the field. He really didn't have a history as a malcontent, but in the sports and entertainment worlds these days, one bad year can make or break your reputation. Plus, it's not a bad outfield -- on paper -- with Pena, Milledge and Austin Kearns around in right.

So now do the Nats go with Jesus Flores as their catcher (whom they plucked from the Mets in the Rule V draft in December 2006)? He was a very limited backup last year because the Nats had to keep him on the 25-man roster or offer him back to the Mets. I'm not even sure he reached Double-A in the Mets' system, so he could be ticketed for the minors for more seasoning. The options on the free-agent market are slim. There seem to be only three who would be worthy of regular (at least four or five games a week) No. 1 duty: Michael Barrett and perhaps Rod Barajas and Paul Lo Duca. But Lo Duca wants, I believe, a ridiculous four-year deal and has also said he wants to go to a team "committed to winning." I don't doubt that the Nats are committed to winning, but I'm sure Lo Duca really means "on the verge of winning." The Nats could be in that position by the end of a hypothetical four-year deal for Lo Duca, but unless their pitching takes immense leaps and bounds forward this year and next, that's unlikely.

I don't see this deal quite as one-sided as Keith Law does, in part because he's going on potential. Yes, Milledge has the potential to be the best player in the deal, but he's not. Yet. At the moment, it's an even trade that helps both teams. We'll wait to see how well Milledge develops before truly evaluating it. Ever since the Scott Kazmir deal, Mets fans are ready to leap off the ledge when a prospect is discussed in trade talks, but they're not all going to turn into stars. Alex Escobar was once the top prospect in the Mets system and seen as a five-tool guy, and his career hasn't gone anywhere.

Milledge's will go somewhere, but until it does, you can't kill the Mets for dealing from a position of strength (and outfield is probably their strongest area throughout the system) to fill two key -- and starting -- needs. Teams these days are holding onto their prospects because they're cheaper than free agents and established stars, not because they're becoming gun-shy. Boston gave up some pretty solid players in Anibal Sanchez and Hanley Ramirez to land Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell, and they may do it again to land Santana. The Yankees won't discuss Joba Chamberlain, but that's really as simple a decision as it was to designate Derek Jeter the shortstop of the future from 1995 on. But if Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes remain to form the top three of the Yankees rotation in the new stadium in 2009, only then will there truly be a new way of thinking when it comes to dealing prospects.

Because the Mets are one of those teams where money isn't as much of an issue, they may be better off signing a marginal free-agent pitcher instead of betting the farm (system) on a trade. The Twins have better offers from the Red Sox and Yankees for Santana, and the loser of that sweepstakes (which could be both teams, should Minnesota back down) could still use the package for Oakland's Dan Haren. The O's will probably hold any team hostage before dealing Erik Bedard (the way the Marlins are in regards to Miguel Cabrera), so as a Mets fan, I'd rather see the team hold onto Gomez, Fernando Martinez, Mike Pelfrey, Phil Humber, Aaron Heilman, et. al. and take a chance on a Bartolo Colon, Carlos Silva or Livan Hernandez. Silva will cost a bit, but Colon should come cheaply with an incentive-laded contract that will pay him more if he stays healthy and pitches more. Hernandez would fill nicely Tom Glavine's 200 innings and should come at a rather reasonable price -- that is, cheaper than Silva.

On draft picks and jerseys

Updated...

Some quick hits, because I suck at consistency and I'll be away for a few days:

This is what you get when Darryl Strawberry* is making your picks at the draft: You end up with Guillaume Leduc, a pitcher out of Montreal, who should be rushed to the Majors this season so that he -- Leduc -- can relieve El Duque and pitch to Paul Lo Duca. But maybe he'll pitch at Brooklyn this summer and take a toss from Lucas Duda while covering first base.

*OK, I know, he's not really making the picks, but still.


But then there's the Yankees. They strengthened their frontcourt with their first pick -- a 6-foot-10 hurler with elbow issues, Andrew Brackman out of North Carolina State. I guess with so many pitching injuries this season, they thought that was how pitchers are supposed to look.

Later, they took a hurler out of the Savannah (Ga.) College of Art and Design. Seriously. He comes with upside, though: He's really good at painting the corners and should be able to help decorate the new clubhouses at the new Yankee Stadium. I just hope his first words at orientation in Tampa aren't, "These uniforms are so 1920s."


I have to side with those who find the Pirates' Friday-night red-based ensemble a bit hideous. At first, I thought the jerseys looked sharp, but that was with Adam LaRoche in jeans. (Nice artistic reference by Uniwatch when it was announced.) Now, I do find them over the top, mainly because with the black undershirt, red sleeveless jersey and white pants, it's too much. It's like a flag, an XFL uniform or, even worse, one of those hideous "futuristic" designs teams wore several years ago.

The Pirates used to have red in their uniforms -- but then again, they also once had pockets. I'm pretty sure that design's not coming back anytime soon.


OK, this isn't good. The Mets are on a four-game losing streak -- the first time all season they've lost more than two straight -- and they now enter a stretch of six straight series against six different playoff teams from 2006. They'll become the first team in baseball history to do that against six different teams. (Two teams previously have played six straight series against playoff clubs, but some of those have included repeat teams.) And because they play the Padres by virtue of being in the National League, the Mets will become the first team in baseball to play the seven other postseason participants from the previous year. Good luck to the team that, some year, has to face all eight of the previous season's playoff clubs.

In other scheduling quirkiness this weekend, the Astros will become the first team to play both Chicago teams on the same trip to the city when they spend the weekend at Comiskey Park and head to the North Side on Monday. And the Pirates return to the Bronx 80 years after their 1927 World Series showdown.


It turns out that the winningest pitcher in the illustrious nine-plus-year history of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays is none other than Victor Zambrano. Scott Kazmir is nine back, which means -- with that team -- he could pass Zambrano in April 2008. But Zambrano's stature prompted one coworker to remark, "There are some relievers with 35 wins. Scot Shields gets like six a year."

As of today, Shields indeed has 35 career wins. Funny how that works. (It's not as fun when you break down their stats and see that Shields got some of those as a starter, but Zambrano got some of his as a reliever.)


Missed this the other day, but David Wright cashed in on Coca-Cola's buyout of Vitamin Water's parent company.

That's almost as sweet a deal as the owners of the Spirits of St. Louis negotiated with the NBA.

Good job, Jim Duquette

OK, look, I'm not stupid. I always knew that the 2004 trade that sent Scott Kazmir to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays and brought Victor Zambrano and Bartolome Fortunato to the Mets was not a good one on the New York side. I took offense, however, to the Met haters -- often Yankee fans -- who loved to gloat about this one (as if the Yankees had never made a bad trade involving prospects; how could they trade JAY BUHNER!) It was way too early to pass final judgement on the trade, yet these people were talking like the Mets had traded away a three-time Cy Young winner. In reality, all the Mets had traded away was potential; it was up to Kazmir to live up to that potential.

Well, all that's changed. What a bad trade.

Zambrano had surgery yesterday, and it was not good. Tommy John not good. And, as The Star-Ledger points out in that link, Fortunato is scheduled for the same surgery. Nice. Nice trade.

Granted, Kazmir is still just 22 and has done nothing much beyond winning 17 of his 48 games and dominating Seattle, Texas and Boston in his brief career to date. There could still be surgery in his future, because nothing is certain.

But, man, what a bad trade.

Should he stay or should he go?

I generally don't see the point in firing a manager when his team's just playing out the string to get to the end of the season. I see no reason for the Phillies to go ahead and send Larry Bowa to the curb just to name someone "interim" manager for the rest of the season. I said "generally." If the Phillies were considering bench coach Gary Varsho as their next manager and wanted to give him a four-week trial run from here to the end of the season, that would certainly be worth the hassle.

Chances are Bowa's done in Philly, and I doubt Ed Wade will be turning to someone in the organization as his first choice to take the reins in 2005. Otherwise, he might very well have already changed the locks on the manager's office in Citizens Bank Park. The team will probably wait until the offseason to see who's available -- and which coaches on other teams they can get permission to talk to -- and hire someone just before Christmas. The division was the Phillies' to lose this year, and they sure did it with flair. During Bowa's tenure, Philadelphia has a winning record before the all-star break, but can't crack .500 down the stretch. They have a history of blowing their wad too soon.

But there is one case in which I'd like to see a change made today: the Mets'. Clearly, Art Howe is not the man for New York. (I think the main problem is the Wilpon family and their idiotic decisions over the past four or five years, but they're not about to fire themselves or sell the team.) He's too soft, too quiet, and he's clearly lost control of the team. The losing streak is currently at nine games and the Mets have won once in their last 14 attempts. There's no heart, no pride, no sense of any desire to win from the team as a whole.

It's hard to overlook all that the Wilpons have done to get them to this point since the end of the 2000 season:

• They didn't even give Steve Phillips a chance to sign Alex Rodriguez and had the GM come up with some ridiculously lame excuse that he was asking for too much (a luxury box for his family, a private jet, etc.).

• They wouldn't give the Mariners Aaron Heilman for Lou Pinella. As a Notre Dame grad and a Mets fan, I would love nothing more than to see Heilman have a decent career in New York. So far, he hasn't shown he can stay at the big-league level, and certainly hindsight shows this as a stupid mistake on the Mets' part. But at the time, as much as I wanted to see Aaron make his major-league debut in blue and orange (and I went to Shea last summer for the game, against Dontrelle Willis and the Marlins), I thought it might be worth it to send an unproven minor-league pitcher to Seattle for a sure-thing to manage the club.

• They wouldn't trade Scott Kazmir for Alfonso Soriano. Who knows how seriously the Mets pursued Soriano, but some talks during spring training got far enough for one of the Wilpons -- father/owner Fred, I believe -- to go on the record in the New York Times and say that Kazmir was one of the few untouchable prospects in the Mets' organization (David Wright was another). The Rangers rumors probably were Jose Reyes and Kazmir for Soriano, but even with Soriano's less-than-Yankee-like season in Texas, giving up an injury-prone Reyes with little power and Kazmir for Soriano doesn't look like such a bad move for the Mets now. That they could then decide that Victor Zambrano was worth letting go of Kazmir is unfathomable to me. I could take not getting Soriano for Kazmir had they kept Kazmir. But this? God.

The Wilpons are clearly falling into the abyss that George Steinbrenner dragged the Yankees into in the 80s. During his height as "The Boss," George couldn't resist meddling in the day-to-day operations of the team and guided the Yanks into their worst stretch in their history. When he was suspended, then backed off, the farm system signed, drafted and developed the likes of Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada, Derek Jeter and Andy Pettitte. Then they went out and won four of five World Series and have made it to two more since then.

The Wilpons aren't letting their baseball people do their jobs. They've got pitching coach Rick Peterson advising Jeff Wilpon on trades, they're sending Jim Duquette out there to clean up the mess of the Zambrano trade and injury and they're making bad moves at the wrong time. If the Kris Benson and Zambrano trades were made for the future (figuring they could sign Benson quite easily and knowing they have Zambrano locked up for three more years), that's one thing. But you get the sense that the trades were made also as a fading hope at making a postseason run this year, which is ridiculous. If that's the case, the moves should've been made in early July, when the Mets were in the thick of an NL East race that had the Mets, Braves and Phillies all within two games of one another. But July 30, it was way too late.

Art Howe isn't going to get the team anywhere. These players -- when they're healthy -- might be enough, but clearly the pitching staff lost its magic since having the best ERA in the majors when the Subway Series started at Yankee Stadium in late June. Wilpon criticized the Mets for not continuing to win despite injuries, saying good teams overcome them, but the Mets aren't equipped to overcome injuries to Mike Piazza, Mike Cameron, Jose Reyes and Kaz Matsui with the likes of Jason Phillips, Gerald Williams, Joe McEwing and Wilson Delgado. Those players are OK as bench players, pinch hitters, late-inning defensive replacements, pinch runners and day-game-after-a-night-game spot starters, but in no way can you send two, three or four of them out there day after day and expect to beat the likes of the Padres, Phillies or Braves.

A report in the New York Daily News said that should Bowa get fired, the Mets would consider him as a bench coach. Good God, no. Not unless that means Howe is gone and Don Baylor is promoted to manager. What could the Mets get out of having Howe as the manager and Bowa as the bench coach (with Baylor either gone to manage some other team, or sticking around as the Mets' hitting coach)? Howe and Bowa on the bench would be a good cop-bad cop routine every night, every inning. And Baylor -- perhaps the best manager of the bunch -- would be doing the least managing.

It's taken me a while to admit this, but the Mets, clearly, are a mess.

There's little hope for the near future in Flushing.