Trying really hard to craft that silver lining

As I sit here going back and forth between being frustrated at the Mets' offseason (leading to doubts about the coming season) and letting the fan in me have hope, let's take a look at some forced parallels and other good omens that might serve as a precursor to a successful season in 2010. Just a few things to help instill hope. (I hope.)

DIVISION HISTORY

In the NL East's existence, the Braves are the only team to win more than three division titles in a row.

SCHEDULING

The last time the Mets opened the season at home was in 2006.

The Mets also opened at home in 1969, 1973 and 2000 (not counting the two in Japan, though they were the home team for the first of those two as well).

The last time the Mets lost more than 90 games (91 in 2004), they won 83 the following season. The last time they lost 92 or more (94 in '83), they won 90 the next year.

All-time, the Mets have a better winning percentage for the season when they open at home vs. on the road (.480 to .477), when they close at home vs. on the road (.496 to .461) and when they both open and close at home vs. playing both on the road (.468 to .397).

MANAGING

Of the nine Mets managers to guide the team through at least two full seasons (should Jerry Manuel last the season), six improved their win totals in the second campaign, by an average of 13 victories. Of the three who didn't, Yogi Berra went from 83 wins to 82 but also led the Mets to the World Series in that second season (1973); Joe Torre went from 66 to 63 wins and Bobby Valentine won 88 in each of his first two years at the helm.

SUPER BOWL TIE-IN

The Mets average 85 wins and a .525 winning percentage in the season following a team winning its debut appearance in the Super Bowl.

RANDOMNESS

In 2009, the Yankees lost their highest-paid player and a Scott Boras client, Alex Rodriguez, for the first month-and-a-half because of surgery. In 2010, the Mets won't have their highest-paid (position) player and a Scott Boras client, Carlos Beltran, for the first month-and-a-half because of surgery.

The Mets have more success in even-numbered years (.484 winning percentage) than odd (.473).

The Mets' next stretch

In looking for a potential reason for the Mets’ 0-5 start (other than poor pitching), I consulted the schedule.

Since the lone off-day of the spring on March 21, the Mets played 12 straight days to finish the Florida exhibition schedule on April 2 against the Marlins. After that game, they flew to Washington for an exhibition against the Nationals April 3, then flew to Cincinnati for the Monday opener on April 4. They had an off day April 5, played two more in Cincinnati, then flew to Atlanta for last weekend’s series, flying to New York Sunday for Monday’s home debut.

After Tuesday’s off-day, they won’t have another break until April 28, but their schedule between now and May 5 includes 15 home games and just seven on the road, five of which are relatively easy jaunts to Philadelphia and Washington.

If this team has any dreams of contending, they'll go 15-7 in this upcoming stretch and emerge with a 17-12 record when we wake up on May 6. After these two remaining against Houston, all of the games are against NL East opponents: Florida April 15-17, at Philly 18-19, at Florida 20-21, vs. Washington 22-24, vs. Atlanta 25-27, off the 28th, at Washington April 29-May 1 and vs. Philly May 2-5.

Oh, and Al Leiter pitches at Shea on Saturday. My prediction: 4 2/3 innings, 8 hits, 7 runs, 5 walks, 3 Ks.