Trying really hard to craft that silver lining

As I sit here going back and forth between being frustrated at the Mets' offseason (leading to doubts about the coming season) and letting the fan in me have hope, let's take a look at some forced parallels and other good omens that might serve as a precursor to a successful season in 2010. Just a few things to help instill hope. (I hope.)

DIVISION HISTORY

In the NL East's existence, the Braves are the only team to win more than three division titles in a row.

SCHEDULING

The last time the Mets opened the season at home was in 2006.

The Mets also opened at home in 1969, 1973 and 2000 (not counting the two in Japan, though they were the home team for the first of those two as well).

The last time the Mets lost more than 90 games (91 in 2004), they won 83 the following season. The last time they lost 92 or more (94 in '83), they won 90 the next year.

All-time, the Mets have a better winning percentage for the season when they open at home vs. on the road (.480 to .477), when they close at home vs. on the road (.496 to .461) and when they both open and close at home vs. playing both on the road (.468 to .397).

MANAGING

Of the nine Mets managers to guide the team through at least two full seasons (should Jerry Manuel last the season), six improved their win totals in the second campaign, by an average of 13 victories. Of the three who didn't, Yogi Berra went from 83 wins to 82 but also led the Mets to the World Series in that second season (1973); Joe Torre went from 66 to 63 wins and Bobby Valentine won 88 in each of his first two years at the helm.

SUPER BOWL TIE-IN

The Mets average 85 wins and a .525 winning percentage in the season following a team winning its debut appearance in the Super Bowl.

RANDOMNESS

In 2009, the Yankees lost their highest-paid player and a Scott Boras client, Alex Rodriguez, for the first month-and-a-half because of surgery. In 2010, the Mets won't have their highest-paid (position) player and a Scott Boras client, Carlos Beltran, for the first month-and-a-half because of surgery.

The Mets have more success in even-numbered years (.484 winning percentage) than odd (.473).

Sox appeal

There it is. 12:06 a.m. on the East Coast and Jonathan Papelbon has just struck out Seth Smith to end the 2007 World Series and the baseball season. As I have every year for as long as I can remember, I made sure I stayed up to watch the final out, to see the last pitch of the season, to watch the celebration and to wrap my head around "Boston Red Sox, World Series champions," or whoever the team has been.

Man, the Rockies gave them a ride these last two nights, cutting both games close before Boston pulled away and put it away.

I love how Jason Varitek already has the championship hat on during the on-field interview. I love how Jamey Carroll gave that ball a ride to the wall in left field and how his brother, Wes, whom I covered in Lakewood in 2002 and must've had a moment of unbelievable excitement. I love how it was Jon Lester who started this game only a year after chemotherapy treatments for Hodgkin's disease. I love how wonderfully enthralling and engaging Roger Angell's season wrapups are and how we'll get to read another one in a week or two.

I love how Bud Selig still looks like a car salesman even as he's presenting a Tiffany trophy to the Red Sox ownership. I love how John Henry can sound so genuine in recognizing the Rockies and their 21-out-of-22 stretch. I love how Jeannie Zelasko seems to be wearing M.C. Hammer's pants.

I love how Alex Rodriguez -- or Scott Boras, or both -- planned his opt-out announcement for tonight, to steal some thunder, to start the process right away, to try to make it all about him. I love how he didn't show up in Denver to accept his Hank Aaron Award alongside the NL winner, Prince Fielder. I love how Mike Lowell is the Series MVP and is a free agent and that the Red Sox will probably re-sign him rather than spend the money for A-Rod. I love how the Rangers are off the hook for their remaining $21 million on A-Rod's contract. I love how the Yankees say they won't negotiate with him now that he's opted out and how this can only end one of two ways: 1) He leaves, or 2) they lied.

I love how they run the credits along with highlights of the Series all set to music and how that song was Van Morrison's "Golden Autumn Day" in 2004. I love how that song was Bruce Springsteen's "Radio Nowhere" tonight, followed by U2's "Walk On" for the extra minute.

I love how Jacoby Ellsbury stole us a taco.

I love how there's only one October, meaning we won't have to see Dane Cook yelling at us anymore.

And I love how everything starts anew again in four months when full squads report to spring training.

Saying no to Zito

As far as I'm concerned, the Giants can have Barry Zito. Seven years?! $126 million!? Dude's not Randy Johnson in '98. He's not even Nolan Ryan in '88. He's a curveball pitcher, a soft-throwing lefty with good control who benefits from a strong defense and pitch location. He's Tom Glavine, minus 12 years, and the Mets already have one of those.

Zito would've benefitted from coming to Shea Stadium, from playing for a team on the verge of the World Series with a good, young core. He still gets the move to the National League, which will help, and he's playing for a team in an even but weak -- save the Dodgers -- division that gives the Giants a chance at the postseason just for playing. But the Giants don't have the supporting cast that the Mets do, and once the injuries start hitting the ancient bodies of Barry Bonds, Ray Durham, Omar Vizquel and even Pedro Feliz and Matt Morris, Zito and Matt Cain and others will be doing all they can just to keep San Francisco in games without giving up more than three or four runs, hoping the offense can manage to scratch out just one more run than the opposition.

Zito would've been a good fit for the Mets at their price -- five years and $75 million, probably 80 -- but not at his price, which is to say Scott Boras' price. That prick can have his money, and Zito can too. Good for him for getting it, and if he'd rather be rich than have a ring, that's his choice. But to think that the highest-paid pitcher in baseball history (at least according to one contract) is Barry Zito is astonishing when guys like Johnson, Greg Maddux and Roger Clemens (perhaps) are still pitching.

As for Zito and the Giants, we'll see how it works out. It worked for Kevin Brown and the Dodgers and Mike Hampton and the Rockies, didn't it?

Oh, wait ...

Round and round he goes, where Beltran lands nobody knows

Nearly five years ago, Dennis Quaid and Jesus — OK, fine, James Caviezel — starred in a baseball movie that wasn't a baseball movie. Frequency was a father/son tale using the Mets' 1969 world championship as a backdrop. Now, another screenwriter has found inspiration in the other Mets championship, the one they won in 1986.

Game 6, which will premiere later this month at the Sundance Film Festival, appears to be another baseball-as-backdrop movie, despite what the title will have you believe. It also may turn out to be more of a Red Sox movie than a Mets movie, according to that aforelinked description on the Sundance site. (And at least this one won't have the in-production backlash that the sight of Jimmy Fallon and Drew Barrymore filming on the field during Boston's celebration in St. Louis has sparked. About that: depending on how it's edited, how can that be believable? Fans don't rush the field anymore these days — the last I can remember was when the Mets clinched the division in '86 — and when they do, a lot more than two make it to the infield.) But with Michael Keaton, Robert Downey Jr., Bebe Neuwirth and Catherine O'Hara, it's got to be picked up and distributed by somebody.

* * *

My gut feeling on Carlos Beltran right now is that he'll go back to Houston. I even signed a petition shortly after the Astros' season ended to plead that he remain in Texas ... before the Mets became a player, of course. I just wanted him to stay far, far away from the Bronx. Obviously, we'll know if he's going back there within he next 31 hours, since he has to sign with the Astros by midnight tomorrow.

But I'm still wary of the Yankees. I won't buy that they're out of it until 1.) Scott Boras names the teams who have made offers, and the Yanks aren't one of them, or 2.) Beltran shows up at a press conference and dons a hat that's not a Yankee hat or a jersey that's not a Yankee jersey.

Murray Chass of The New York Times speculated today that George Steinbrenner might have simply told his staff to say the Yankees had no interest, intending to swoop in at the 11th hour. It was Chass, I believe, who first started the talk last weekend that the Yankees had no interest, and Buster Olney of ESPN.com (and/or The Magazine) has also said he thinks they are going to take a pass. But my thinking is that if they really had made the decision to go after Beltran but try to do it quietly, it would get out somehow, despite Steinbrenner's wishes. There is only a certain number of people who can keep a secret about something before the media gets a hold of it.

There's also been some discussion lately that Beltran's not really worth what Boras is demanding. But a look at the list of similar players (scroll down below the boxes for "Appearances on Leaderboards and Awards") shows one Hall of Famer in Dave Winfield, another power/speed outfielder in Bobby Bonds, and a borderline Hall candidate in Andre Dawson. Most telling, as Tim Kurjian points out in that first link, is that his walks have increased in the last four years while his strikeouts have dipped to the point where he's nearly at a 1:1 ratio. He most likely won't hit 40 home runs as a Met, but he'll get on base and run, and he'll cut off so many doubles in the gap at Shea.

The Mets would probably have to overpay to get him, but that's what they need to do. I'd be happy with it, but I just don't know if it's going to get to that. Houston's my gut feeling, but if we haven't heard of it by Sunday morning, there very well could be a new No. 15 in Queens.

Unless, you know, the Yanks are playing possum.

* * *

Wade Boggs will go into the Hall wearing a Red Sox cap. It wasn't really too hard to predict. It's the right move by the Hall.

Doug Mientkiewicz, however, doesn't understand the concept. He's not giving the Red Sox the ball he caught from Keith Foulke for the final out of the World Series. (Of course, if Foulke were smart enough on his feet, he would've run the ball to first base himself for the final out, keeping it in his glove the whole time.) It would be one thing if Mientkiewicz came up with the Red Sox or maybe even played with them the whole season. I'm more inclined to think that Nomar Garciaparra has more of a claim to the ball than Mientkiewicz, who was only in the game as a defensive replacement. (Apparently Terry Francona learned from John McNamara what can happen when you leave a first baseman in for the final out for sentimental reasons.)

* * *

Since I love to make predictions, here are my quick picks for the NFL's wild-card weekend:

I would like to see the Jets win, but I think with the way they struggled at the end of the season, with Chad Pennington's recovering shoulder and with San Diego at home, it won't happen. Might come close, they might cover, but I think it's the Chargers, 28-24.

In Seattle, I don't like either team. I could go with St. Louis, because they've had the Seahawks' number; or I could go with the home team, because can one 8-8 team beat another three times in one season? If Shaun Alexander can control the clock, Seattle probably wins. But I like St. Louis' weapons and scoring potential as a whole, so I say the Rams, 31-26.

On the semi-frozen tundra of Lambeau Field (gameday high expected to be 35 degrees), I don't have the same misgivings about the Packers-Vikings divisional matchup threepeat. Minnesota has won something like two of its last 12 games outdoors. Daunte Culpepper may do The Roll after a touchdown to Randy Moss, but it's Brett Favre and the Packers who roll on, 38-30.

I'm a fan of the scoring this opening weekend, aren't I? I'm probably not the only one. Take away everything else in the Indianapolis-Denver matchup on Sunday except for three things: Peyton Manning, Jake Plummer and the RCA Dome. Is there any way you can envision Plummer beating Manning inside? Neither can I: Colts, 42-21.