Everybody's doing it, so no one gets jinxed

When Mets Police and Deadspin noted that the Jets were pre-selling AFC Champions gear, I chuckled and posted it on Facebook, but I didn't dwell on it much more than that. It seemed a bit presumptive on the one hand, but I also figured it made some sense for the team to get ahead of the curve -- and ahead of Modell's and Sports Authority and the like -- and maybe get a few fans to commit a few days ahead of time.

And then yesterday, a feature about Rex Ryan and two of his assistants in the New York Times noted the gear on sale at the end of the story -- and also said that the Colts, Saints and Vikings also had conference champions gear (with the Super Bowl logo) available for pre-order. So then it was no longer a Jets thing -- it's an NFL thing. I don't know if the league mandated the pre-sale, encouraged it or simply made the gear (or at least the images of them) available for the teams' respective online shops. And of course there have already been shipments of the apparel to the physical team stores, the Superdome and Lucas Oil Stadium and the local sporting goods stores in the greater metropolitan areas of Minneapolis, Indianapolis, New Jersey/New York and New Orleans -- all so that they can begin selling and distributing the souvenirs as soon as the game goes final (not to mention pass out the hats and T-shirts to the players on the field).

As for the presale, maybe the NFL figures it'll get some new online customers out of it, a few more e-mail addresses, a few more credit cards stored in online accounts (which would encourage repeat customers). The rapid rise and broad reach of the NFL didn't happen without strong marketing, so the league obviously knows what it's doing. However, while the internet makes it easy and inexpensive to set up a presale like this, I can't think of one true fan who would take the risk of jinxing his or her team by placing an order for conference championship gear before the game kicks off. Plus, those fans are going to want their gear on Monday morning --not Monday afternoon or Tuesday or Wednesday or whenever even the fastest shipping on a pre-order would get it to them -- so they'll go to their local stores or the downtown team shops first. Even those transplanted fans across the country and around the world who would have to shop online because the local stores won't have the gear will likely wait until the clock reaches zero for the fourth time before clicking "Add to cart."

I can only dream about someday having this dilemma with the Mets.

Short hops

As you may recall from the post just below this one, I specifically said the Orioles should trade Jerry Hairston and prospects for Sammy Sosa. I had no idea the Cubs would settle for two minor leaguers in second baseman Mike Fontenont and right-hander David Crouthers who are ranked merely No. 7 and No. 10, respectively, in Baltimore's top 10 by Baseball America. Plus, when you look at how little the Orioles actually have to pay Sammy (whether they decide to sign him to a ridiculous extension is their own fault), it was too good a chance to pass up. They'll need him to hit 66 home runs again to overcome their questionable pitching, but you never know.

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According to Bob Nightengale at USA Today, the Pirates' Craig Wilson has ditched his mullet for a crew cut. We mourn you, Thor, god of thunder.

The flowing mane is no more ...
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The Dodgers signed Japanese third baseman Norihiro Nakamura, who signed with the Mets in December 2002 but then decided he wanted to stay in Japan. He claimed the reason he bailed was because he went online to the Mets website and saw a report that he was coming to New York. The team and Nakamura apparently had made a deal to announce the signing in Japan, and Nakamura mistook the Mets' site at MLB.com as an official team site run out of Flushing. What he was actually reading, however, was a news story -- all of which boast the tagline, "This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs."

"I checked the Major League Baseball web site and there I was on the Mets' web site," Nakamura said at a press conference in Osaka back then. "We asked the New York Mets, please don't issue the news from New York. They broke our agreement. In Japan, the process is very important. We arrive at the new year with the Mets. We have to inform the club, 'We're going to sign with the Mets,' but then they broke the agreement. But I can't sign with a team that broke a promise."

It was probably good for the Mets, who might not have brought up David Wright last season if they were paying Nakamura $3.5 million (his deal was two years, $7 million). At least it appears they had Wright in mind when they made the offer to Nakamura.

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If there's one good thing about the Super Bowl being played in February these past few years, it's that come Monday morning, when most of us are struggling into work after a -- ahem -- heavy night, we will be a mere 14 days away from pitchers and catchers reporting to sites across Florida and central Arizona.

The two weeks between the conference championship games and Sunday's Super Bowl have sapped my enthusiasm and momentum, so I offer only this half-hearted prediction: No one thought the Patriots had a chance against the Rams three years ago, so I'm going against the grain here. While it would be nice for Notre Dame head coach Charlie Weis to pick up his third ring in four years, I'm picking the Iggles (+7), 29-20.

Once more to the picks

As we sat on the patio of the Camelback Resort in Scottsdale, Arizona, last week, watching the Jets-Steelers game in the warmth of the Sonoran Desert, Casey was nervous. "I don't think we can have a Super Bowl party if the Steelers lose," she said. "I'll be too upset." She has never said anything close to this regarding sports in the three-and-a-half years we've been together.

That's how much the Steelers mean to Pittsburgh. Having no tight NFL allegiances myself, I've dropped the 49ers cold turkey (after they hired that imbecile Dennis Erickson two years ago) and gravitated more towards the Jets, who are in my backyard, and the Steelers, partly because of Casey and partly because of Jerome Bettis. Last week, I pulled more for Pittsburgh than the Jets, with the feeling that this could be Bettis' last best chance, while Chad Pennington, Curtis Martin and Co. should still be on their way up. Besides, the Steelers have a much better shot to win it all this year than the Jets do anyway.

Last week I went 3-1 picking the winners (putting me at 5-3 for the postseason) and 2-2 against the spread (5-3 in two weeks). Two weeks from now, I'll post one final football blurb, and then it's all baseball until November.

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I agree with just about everyone when it comes to the Eagles on Sunday. They're going to come out tight. They're going to be feeling the pressure of three straight NFC Championship Game losses, the weight of last year's measly three points against the Panthers. If they fall behind early, if they can't stop Michael Vick, if they can't hold the Falcons to three-and-out, that pressure will increase exponentially. But it might not happen. Philly can win this one. I just think Atlanta had it too easy last week, plus they're the odd team out of the remaining four: an indoor, Southern turf team that has to deal with freezing temperatures and, if their neighbors at the Weather Channel are correct, snow. So I say Eagles (-5), 26-17.

The Patriots scare me. They are clearly the deepest, most well-coached team in the NFL. (As a Notre Dame grad, I'm thrilled their offensive mastermind will become our head coach in a matter of weeks, if not days.) New England gets as much from its highest-paid player as it does the last guy brought in from the scout team. Pittsburgh can win (perhaps easily) if they run the ball. Run, run, run. Pound it with Bettis. Get a little more speed and quickness with Duce Staley. Play-action to Hines Ward across the middle, or to Plaxico Burress for a jump ball. Or Antwaan Randle-El deep. But running is the key. Something tells me the Steelers will get away from that too early in the game. And that plays right into Bill Belichick's hands. While my heart will be in Pittsburgh, while I'll be rooting for the Stillers, while I think they can win, whether it's 21-17, 27-24, 14-10, I'm going with the dream I had the other night, which was quite vivid. It's the Patriots (-3), 20-17, on an Adam Vinatieri field goal in overtime, in the snow.

I'm just hoping I'm wrong.

NFL picks, round two

So last week, I threw out some NFL playoff predictions at the end of a baseball post, just because I like to throw out predictions.

Now here I go again, only without the baseball post. (But you can still check out this week's minor-league column from the past, below.)

I'd better be right; I'm off to Arizona tonight, so this page won't be updated until Wednesday, at the earliest, and these picks will be up there until we're just three days away from the conference championship games.

Last week I was 2-2 picking winners outright and 3-1 calling the games against the spread (which I didn't include, so I suppose I should this time around). For comparison, Bill Simmons went 2-2 under both criteria.

We'll be watching Jets-Steelers from Scottsdale, and though I count the teams as my two favorites in the NFL, I think only one has a legitimate shot at reaching (and winning) the Super Bowl. And since I'll be with Pittsburghers, I'd rather save my sports arguments for the upcoming Notre Dame-Pitt basketball matchups. Anyway, earlier today I heard one caller to a New York sports talk station base his argument on one thing. "There's one X-factor you can't overlook," he said, "he's a rookie quarterback." That argument (which he failed to back up with anything noteworthy) would mean more going against, say, a defending conference champion, or Super Bowl champion, or maybe the league's top defense against the pass. The Jets are none of the above, and their secondary is the weaker link (by far) of their defensive unit. I think the Jets can keep it close, and the team that gets a 10-0 lead will have the easier road to next weekend, but I see this as more of a see-saw game; a 7-0, then 7-3, then 7-6, then 10-6, then 13-10 type of game. You get the idea. So, in the end, it's the Jets who have to make the game-winning drive (or it's the Steelers running out the clock), and in both cases, I like the Steelers (-8 1/2), 20-13.

To be honest, I've been reading and listening to too much about this weekend's games to try to claim all these observations as my own. As such, much of what I'm saying here is made up of the points I agreed with most, or those that futher clarify my own initial analyses. For the Rams-Falcons matchup, I caught on to one significant aspect just today: the Atlanta defensive line against the St. Louis offensive line. Back in September, when I drafted my fantasy football team, I wavered on my quarterback pick. Four of my top five were gone, and I was deciding between Trent Green and Marc Bulger. Bulger was rated one spot higher on the draft board I'd made, but I felt more comfortable with Green because of the questionable o-line in St. Louis. Clearly, both offenses are going to get their points in this one, which leads me to believe that the efforts of Atlanta's defense are what will lift the Falcons (-7), 34-28.

With last week's upset in Green Bay, the Vikings are now 3-20 in their last 23 games outdoors. I don't know what that means, if anything, but it does lead me to think that they won't get two in a row. For one thing, it doesn't account for temperature, so it's not like it means 3-20 in their last 23 games outside with the temperature below 40. One of those losses was at Arizona to end the 2003 season when they needed a win. I don't know how far I'd go with the Eagles, but I do feel comfortable this week. Something horrendous for Philly could happen with so many of their key players not having played any meaningful minutes in about a month, but they were clearly the class of the NFC this season, and the gap was the result of more than just other teams' apparent lack of talent. It's time to get the groove back for the Eagles (-8 1/2), 27-17.

Something tells me to pick the Patriots against the Colts just because so many people are giving the upper hand to Indianapolis. I do like their chances against a patchwork New England secondary and virtually no chance of rain or snow or pushing and shoving against the Colts' receivers on Sunday in Massachusetts. I've always liked Peyton Manning, from the moment he decided to stick around at Tennessee for his senior year, and a win on Sunday would put to rest any arguments that he can't win a big game. I see two distinct outcomes for this game. On one hand, the Patriots devise brilliant defensive schemes to completely throw Manning's offense out of whack and get turnovers, and New England wins easily. On the other, Peyton picks apart the Patriots for some early scores, allowing Edgerrin James to get some significant yards and a touchdown or two, redeeming himself for his two Week One fumbles on the goal line. But I also see the Patriots keeping it close in this scenario, though the Colts win the tight one. I'm going with option two, Colts (+1 1/2) 31-28.

Round and round he goes, where Beltran lands nobody knows

Nearly five years ago, Dennis Quaid and Jesus — OK, fine, James Caviezel — starred in a baseball movie that wasn't a baseball movie. Frequency was a father/son tale using the Mets' 1969 world championship as a backdrop. Now, another screenwriter has found inspiration in the other Mets championship, the one they won in 1986.

Game 6, which will premiere later this month at the Sundance Film Festival, appears to be another baseball-as-backdrop movie, despite what the title will have you believe. It also may turn out to be more of a Red Sox movie than a Mets movie, according to that aforelinked description on the Sundance site. (And at least this one won't have the in-production backlash that the sight of Jimmy Fallon and Drew Barrymore filming on the field during Boston's celebration in St. Louis has sparked. About that: depending on how it's edited, how can that be believable? Fans don't rush the field anymore these days — the last I can remember was when the Mets clinched the division in '86 — and when they do, a lot more than two make it to the infield.) But with Michael Keaton, Robert Downey Jr., Bebe Neuwirth and Catherine O'Hara, it's got to be picked up and distributed by somebody.

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My gut feeling on Carlos Beltran right now is that he'll go back to Houston. I even signed a petition shortly after the Astros' season ended to plead that he remain in Texas ... before the Mets became a player, of course. I just wanted him to stay far, far away from the Bronx. Obviously, we'll know if he's going back there within he next 31 hours, since he has to sign with the Astros by midnight tomorrow.

But I'm still wary of the Yankees. I won't buy that they're out of it until 1.) Scott Boras names the teams who have made offers, and the Yanks aren't one of them, or 2.) Beltran shows up at a press conference and dons a hat that's not a Yankee hat or a jersey that's not a Yankee jersey.

Murray Chass of The New York Times speculated today that George Steinbrenner might have simply told his staff to say the Yankees had no interest, intending to swoop in at the 11th hour. It was Chass, I believe, who first started the talk last weekend that the Yankees had no interest, and Buster Olney of ESPN.com (and/or The Magazine) has also said he thinks they are going to take a pass. But my thinking is that if they really had made the decision to go after Beltran but try to do it quietly, it would get out somehow, despite Steinbrenner's wishes. There is only a certain number of people who can keep a secret about something before the media gets a hold of it.

There's also been some discussion lately that Beltran's not really worth what Boras is demanding. But a look at the list of similar players (scroll down below the boxes for "Appearances on Leaderboards and Awards") shows one Hall of Famer in Dave Winfield, another power/speed outfielder in Bobby Bonds, and a borderline Hall candidate in Andre Dawson. Most telling, as Tim Kurjian points out in that first link, is that his walks have increased in the last four years while his strikeouts have dipped to the point where he's nearly at a 1:1 ratio. He most likely won't hit 40 home runs as a Met, but he'll get on base and run, and he'll cut off so many doubles in the gap at Shea.

The Mets would probably have to overpay to get him, but that's what they need to do. I'd be happy with it, but I just don't know if it's going to get to that. Houston's my gut feeling, but if we haven't heard of it by Sunday morning, there very well could be a new No. 15 in Queens.

Unless, you know, the Yanks are playing possum.

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Wade Boggs will go into the Hall wearing a Red Sox cap. It wasn't really too hard to predict. It's the right move by the Hall.

Doug Mientkiewicz, however, doesn't understand the concept. He's not giving the Red Sox the ball he caught from Keith Foulke for the final out of the World Series. (Of course, if Foulke were smart enough on his feet, he would've run the ball to first base himself for the final out, keeping it in his glove the whole time.) It would be one thing if Mientkiewicz came up with the Red Sox or maybe even played with them the whole season. I'm more inclined to think that Nomar Garciaparra has more of a claim to the ball than Mientkiewicz, who was only in the game as a defensive replacement. (Apparently Terry Francona learned from John McNamara what can happen when you leave a first baseman in for the final out for sentimental reasons.)

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Since I love to make predictions, here are my quick picks for the NFL's wild-card weekend:

I would like to see the Jets win, but I think with the way they struggled at the end of the season, with Chad Pennington's recovering shoulder and with San Diego at home, it won't happen. Might come close, they might cover, but I think it's the Chargers, 28-24.

In Seattle, I don't like either team. I could go with St. Louis, because they've had the Seahawks' number; or I could go with the home team, because can one 8-8 team beat another three times in one season? If Shaun Alexander can control the clock, Seattle probably wins. But I like St. Louis' weapons and scoring potential as a whole, so I say the Rams, 31-26.

On the semi-frozen tundra of Lambeau Field (gameday high expected to be 35 degrees), I don't have the same misgivings about the Packers-Vikings divisional matchup threepeat. Minnesota has won something like two of its last 12 games outdoors. Daunte Culpepper may do The Roll after a touchdown to Randy Moss, but it's Brett Favre and the Packers who roll on, 38-30.

I'm a fan of the scoring this opening weekend, aren't I? I'm probably not the only one. Take away everything else in the Indianapolis-Denver matchup on Sunday except for three things: Peyton Manning, Jake Plummer and the RCA Dome. Is there any way you can envision Plummer beating Manning inside? Neither can I: Colts, 42-21.