No complaints with Haren, Peavy to start

Can't find much to argue with in the All-Star Game starters. Dan Haren has had an amazing run and been consistent all season, while Jake Peavy has been just as dominant. And as a National League fan, I'm hoping Haren's uncharacteristically "rough" outings in his last two starts carry over. Peavy may have lost his last two decisions, but he hasn't given up more than three runs since June 7.

Sadly, John Maine never got the call. Two pitchers backed out, but John Smoltz was replaced by Roy Oswalt and Brandon Webb took the spot of Brian Fuentes. Both were taken, I understand, because they were the next pitchers named on the player ballots who did not make the team. By that logic, I assume NL manager Tony La Russa chose the five pitchers for the Final Vote the same way, which means Maine didn't get the backing of the players to be among the top five pitchers left off the team. He'll just have to go out there and put up a 10-1 record in the second half -- that would be 20-5 -- and show everyone. It was also interesting how Oswalt was added to the team a few hours before the Final Vote ended, meaning it was clear that he was not going to win that competition, which Chris Young rightly did. But why make that announcement before the voting ends? Can't figure that one out.

La Russa admitted that he made choices based on the game's importance. Brad Hawpe gets a three-day break while Aaron Rowand is an All-Star because he plays center field. And Freddy Sanchez is a repeat representative because he can play three infield positions. Maybe it's just me, but I'd rather see the best players in the league at the All-Star Game, rather than the best players who fit the manager's style. Another reason the stupid tie-in to World Series home-field advantage needs to go.

Looking over the NL Cy Young results

Argh. OK, so enough of this "didn't have time" crap. Chris Carpenter had but 15 wins this past season, one less than the 16 I said he'd had. Brandon Webb was indeed named the Cy Young Award winner today, after finishing the season with 16 wins, which tied him at the top of the National League.

My pick, Trevor Hoffman, finished second by 26 points, yet received 12 first-place votes to Webb's 15. It was Webb's 7-3 edge on second-place votes -- and, more importantly, his appearance on 29 of the 32 ballots, compared to just 23 of 32 for Hoffman that sealed it. Chris Carpenter also was named on 23 ballots, but only two of them placed him first.

I would love to see the breakdown of votes, similar to the way the Associated Press releases its college football votes each week.

Anyway, when I had the time, I looked at the numbers for Webb and Carpenter more closely. And they were, it turns out, surprisingly close:

	W	L	ERA	GS	CG	SHO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	WHIP
Webb	16	8	3.10	33	5	3	235	216	91	81	50	178	1.13
Carpenter	15	8	3.09	32	5	3	221.2	194	81	76	43	184	1.07
				G	SV	SOp.
Hoffman	0	2	2.14	65	46	51	63	48	16	15	13	50	0.97

I added Hoffman's stats as well, though they're hard to compare, because of his different role. The Padres' closer allowed less than a baserunner per inning (he hit one batter this season), which in his role is more important than allowing just over more than one per inning as a starter, as Carpenter and Webb each did. I'm not saying Webb is a bad choice, because in a year like this, with no clear frontrunner, it's hard to say whose mediocre numbers (in relation to other cy Young winners) are better than the other guys'.

I just think that if I had a vote, I would've cast it for Hoffman, who had a direct part in 46 Padres wins, more than twice as many as Webb's 18 -- counting no-decisions that the Diamondbacks won, since a starting pitcher can have a big impact in close games. That Arizona won only two of Webb's nine no-decisions is interesting (they went 18-15 in games he started), if misleading, because the scores in those seven team losses were 3-2, 5-4, 1-0, 4-3, 11-7, 7-6 and 4-2. And both wins were by one run.

For comparison, the Cardinals went 21-11 in games started by Carpenter, winning 6 of 9 games in which he got a no-decision. The losses were by scores of 3-2, 7-6 and 8-7.

How to put Hoffman into this argument is hard to say, because by the nature of his role, he'll pitch in way more wins for the Padres than in losses. However, looking at his stats, we see the Padres lost all five games in which Hoffman blew the save, plus a sixth game in which he came into a tie game to pitch the 10th and took the loss. In the nine games that featured an appearance by Hoffman but not a win, loss or save for the closer, San Diego went 9-4. So of the 65 games in which Hoffman pitched, the Padres won 55 and lost 10. That puts the Padres' winning percentage in "Hell's Bells" games, we'll call them, at .846. In Webb games, Arizona was .545 and in Carpenter games, the Cardinals were .656.

I'm not sure if those percentages mean anything, as I said, because of the different nature of a starting pitcher's role vs. a reliever's. But there they are.

Quick prediction on NL Cy Young

Didn't have time to get this going sooner, so with less than an hour until the announcement, I'll just throw out the three presumed front-runners for the National League Cy Young Award, along with my prediction. I'm wondering if this will be a slightly different year, considering Hanley Ramirez's narrow Rookie of the Year victory over Ryan Zimmerman. But more on that when I have time.

Chris Carpenter: The reigning Cy Young holder won 16 games, which would be the lowest since the Cubs' Rick Sutcliffe went 16-1 for Chicago in 1984. But that was after he came over in a midseason trade; overall, Sutcliffe went 20-6, though I'm sure the voters were only supposed to consider his NL achievements. As for Carpenter, his Cardinals did win the World Series with the lowest win total (83) in history, so maybe he'll take a similar track to his second Cy Young.

Brandon Webb: The Arizona righty didn't lose any of his first 13 or so starts, but was just so-so over the second half. Appearing to run away with it in the early months, he became just another candidate as the season wore on.

Trevor Hoffman: There are some who say that a win for Hoffman this year -- a year without a 20-game winner or otherwise dominant starter -- would be akin to a lifetime achievement Cy Young, and perhaps a makeup honor for 1998, when Hoffman saved 53 games but lost the award to Tom Glavine. With no stellar starter, I think this just might be the year the Cy Young bell tolls for Hoffman.