Long ball lists x 30

Quick! Name the Padres' franchise leader in home runs.

It's not Adrian Gonzalez, though it may be by the end of the season ... depending on if (or when) San Diego trades him. Gonzalez entered the season needing 34 home runs to claim the top spot from an original Padre whose name you probably don't know unless you're a big Padres fan or have committed to memory the franchise home run leaders for each team. Ladies and gentlemen, the all-time leader in home runs by a Padre, No. 17 in your scorecard, Nate Colbert!

The 6-foot-2, 190-pound first baseman and outfielder hit 163 home runs in San Diego from the club's inception in 1969 until he was traded to the Tigers after the 1974 season in a three-team deal that sent Ed Brinkman to the Cardinals. Colbert's season-high was 38 long balls, accomplished in 1970 and '72, and he averaged 27 a season in his six summers in brown and gold.

Every slugger to play for the Padres since has left the team one way or another, never to get closer than seven dingers of Colbert's 163. Phil Nevin ranks second with 156, Dave Winfield hit 154, Tony Gwynn -- not a slugger but on the list because of his longevity -- hit 135, Ryan Klesko launched 133 and Gonzalez now has 132, having recorded two already this season.

Maybe it's the Curse of Nate Colbert. Hank Aaron told the Detroit media following the deal that Colbert was unhappy in San Diego and welcomed the trade to Detroit. Whatever the reason, no one has managed to surpass Colbert's home run total for the Padres.

With that in mind, I went through each franchise's career long ball leaders to see who's got a stranglehold on the top spot -- curse or not -- and which ones might soon fall. Home run totals for active players are through Sunday's games.

ARIZONA
Leader: Luis Gonzalez, 224. Active leader: Mark Reynolds (fourth), 91. Reynolds is 26 and has hit 17, 28 and 44 home runs in three seasons with the Diamondbacks, averaging 35 per 162 games. He's signed through 2012 with an $11 million club option for 2013 and if he averages 35 homers through '13, he'd get to 231, likely passing Gonzo in September 2013.

ATLANTA
Leader: Hank Aaron, 733. Active leader: Chipper Jones (third), 427. As good as he is, Chipper's not going to get there. Even second place on the list, held by Eddie Mathews with 493, is in question with his age and injury history. But from the accolades in the media, it sounds like Jason Heyward's countdown to whatever Barry Bonds' total was (755 is still the highest home run total I have memorized) has already begun. (Seriously, though, Heyward is fun to watch. As a Mets fan, my dislike of the Braves has subsided since 2006 and replaced by the Phillies, but I think Heyward will bring it back up soon.)

BALTIMORE
Leader: Cal Ripken, 431. Active leader: Miguel Tejada (24th), 103. Had I written this post at the end of last season, Melvin Mora, whose 158 home runs rank 11th, would have been the candidate. Tejada's not a threat, either, and it's too early to tell whether any of the Orioles' young core of Nick Markakis, Matt Wieters, Adam Jones or Nolan Reimold will have both the power and the longevity to break into the top five.

BOSTON
Leader: Ted Williams, 521. Active leader: David Ortiz (sixth), 259. Considering his struggles last year and so far this year, Big Papi can set his sights no further than Manny Ramirez, fifth on the list with 274. Teddy, Yaz (452), Jim Rice (382) and Dewey Evans (379) are safe in the top four.

CHICAGO CUBS:
Leader: Sammy Sosa, 545. Active leader: Aramis Ramirez (10th), 189. I can't see anyone approaching Sosa (or Ernie Banks' 512) without a Sosa-like, ahem, surge. With a career-average 30 homers (though he hasn't reached that number since 2006), Ramirez can climb to seventh. He's currently just one behind Hack Wilson's 190.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX:
Leader: Frank Thomas, 448. Active leader: Paul Konerko (second), 322. Paulie K. is the only active ChiSox in the top 10 and even his fast start (three homers in the first week) won't be enough to approach Thomas, because Konerko is in the last year of his contract.

CINCINNATI:
Leader: Johnny Bench, 389. Active leader: Brandon Phillips (30th), 89. With the departure in recent years of Adam Dunn (fourth, 270 homers) and Ken Griffey Jr. (seventh, 210), the active Reds leader is Phillips. Joey Votto is 48th with 54 dingers and Jay Bruce 65th with 43.

CLEVELAND:
Leader: Jim Thome, 334. Active leader: Travis Hafner (10th), 163. Pronk reached the top 10 with his long ball in Detroit's home opener on Friday, tying Ken Keltner, a third baseman in the '30s and '40s. Grady Sizemore is 14th with 129. Cleveland's is an interesting list. The top three -- Thome, Albert Belle (242) and Manny Ramirez -- all played the majority of their home games in Jacobs Field, the next three -- Earl Averill, Hal Trosky and Larry Doby -- played in the '30s, '40s and '50s, as did No. 8 Al Rosen and No. 9 Rocky Colavito. Andre Thornton, seventh on the list, played in the late '70s and '80s.

COLORADO:
Leader: Todd Helton, 325. Active chaser: Brad Hawpe (eighth), 113. Perhaps one day we'll be talking about the Curse of Todd Helton with the Rockies. Troy Tulowitzki is 10th with 65 homers.

DETROIT:
Leader: Al Kaline, 399. Active leader: Brandon Inge (23rd), 123. No one has moved into the Tigers' top 10 in 15 years. Cecil Fielder (fifth, 245), Lou Whitaker (sixth, 244) and Kirk Gibson (10th, 195) are the only sluggers on the list who played into the '90s. Eighteen more long balls from Inge would tie him with Darrell Evans for 20th. The Tigers' biggest home run threat, Miguel Cabrera, is way down at No. 46, with 73, behind Curtis Granderson (30th, 102), Magglio Ordonez (34th, 92) and Carlos Guillen (37th, 86). Signed through 2016 and averaging 33 per season in his career, at that pace Miggy would reach 304, good for fourth, two behind Hank Greenberg's 306. Norm Cash is second with 373.

FLORIDA:
Leader: Mike Lowell, 143. Active leader: Dan Uggla (fourth), 122. Uggla's first home run this year tied him with Gary Sheffield and he's now seven behind Derrek Lee's 129. Uggla has never hit fewer than 27 in his four seasons with the Marlins, and 22 more this season will give him the Florida franchise lead. But maybe not for long. Hanley Ramirez, because I know you're wondering, is ninth, with 104. If he can match his career high of 33, Ramirez will climb into the top four at 136. Miguel Cabrera remains second in Marlins history with 138 -- the consequence of being traded from a new franchise to an original one. And 10th on the illustrious Marlins home run list? None other than Alex Gonzalez, the one still playing, in Toronto.

HOUSTON:
Leader: Jeff Bagwell, 449. Active leader: Lance Berkman (second), 313. The Astros hold an option on Berkman for next season, and even if he were to somehow come back from the disabled list and hit his career average 34 homers this season and next (and he hasn't reached that number since 2007), he'd only have 381. Craig Biggio is third with 291.

KANSAS CITY:
Leader: George Brett, 317. Active leader: David DeJesus (20th), 56. The Manalapan High and Rutgers graduate became the Royals' active leader in the offseason, when John Buck (15th, 70 homers) and Mark Teahen (19th, 59) left via free agency and was traded, respectively. Brett's mark is pretty safe. Considering the Royals' recent history and financial resources, it's hard to speculate if a young, developing star like Billy Butler (33rd, 41) will stay in Kansas City long enough to crack the top 10. No. 2 on the list is Mike Sweeney with 197, and Carlos Beltran checks in at No. 8 with 123.

LOS ANGELES ANGELS:
Leader: Tim Salmon, 299. Active leader: Juan Rivera (17th), 79. L.A./California/Anaheim/L.A.'s top five include three players from their 2002 World Series championship team and another who left last year: Garret Anderson (second, 272), Troy Glaus (fourth, 182) and Vladimir Guerrero (fifth, 173). Brian Downing's 222 are third ... and Brandon Wood's seven homers rank 146th.

LOS ANGELES DODGERS:
Leader: Duke Snider, 389. Active leader: Andre Ethier (32nd), 75. Duke is pretty safe. He's one of three sluggers in the top four on this list who played in Brooklyn; Gil Hodges (361 homers) is second and Roy Campanella (242) is fourth. The home run leader in the Chavez Ravine era? Eric Karros, with 270.

MILWAUKEE:
Leader: Robin Yount, 251. Active leader: Prince Fielder (eighth), 160. Prince is tied with Paul Molitor and should he reach 40 for the third time in four seasons (his career average is 38) in 2010, he'll climb to fifth, just one behind Cecil Cooper's 201. Another 40-homer year in 2011 -- currently the last year the Brewers have him under contract -- gets him to second place and 240, within 11 of Yount. So there's a good chance Fielder becomes the Brewers' franchise leader with a.) either two huge years in '10 and '11 or b.) a long-term contract extension. Prince's 160 home runs are already the Brewers' Miller Park-era franchise high -- he passed Geoff Jenkins' 148 last year -- but Jenkins still holds their National League mark with 212.

MINNESOTA:
Leader: Harmon Killebrew, 559. Active leader: Justin Morneau (ninth), 165. At his average pace of 31 per 162 games and signed through 2013, Morneau would climb to third with 287, just six behind Kent Hrbek. But the Twins move into Target Field today, a new outdoor ballpark with dimensions that are believed to benefit the left-handed power of Morneau, Joe Mauer and Jason Kubel. So should he stay healthy, Morneau will likely get to 300 and take over second place before his deal is up. Even the Minneapolis record is safe for the life of Morneau's contract, because Killebrew hit 475 after the team moved from Washington.

NEW YORK METS:
Leader: Darryl Strawberry, 252. Active leader: David Wright (fifth), 141. I'm not going to project where Wright will end up until after this season, when we see how he responds in his second year at Citi Field. He needs 15 more home runs to pass Dave Kingman for fourth place and current hitting coach Howard Johnson is third with 192. Mike Piazza hit 220. Carlos Beltran sits sixth, with 127 long balls with the Mets, and it's a shame he's missed so much time last season and this with injuries, or he'd be setting his sights on Kingman as well.

NEW YORK YANKEES:
Leader: Babe Ruth, 659. Active leader: Alex Rodriguez (ninth), 238. A-Rod may break Hank Aaron's record (for a right-handed hitter) and he may surpass the Bonds number, but he might not catch the Babe for pinstripe power. At his current average of 43 per 162 games and with his contract carrying through the 2017 season -- and that's being generous to give him 43 homers a year through the end of the deal -- Rodriguez would only get to 582. In fact, Mickey Mantle's 536 might be the number to shoot for, considering A-Rod's age at the end of his contract (39, 40 and 41 over the last three years). Rodriguez will pass Jorge Posada this year, and Derek Jeter ranks 10th on the Yankees' list.

OAKLAND:
Leader: Mark McGwire, 363. Active leader: Eric Chavez (sixth), 229. It's a shame Chavez has had so many injuries, because there's no telling where he'd rank, considering second place on this list is Jimmie Foxx with 302. Chavez hasn't homered since June 17, 2008. Next on the active list behind Chavez is Mark Ellis at 33 with 80, so no movement in the top 10 is imminent, outside of Chavez.

PHILADELPHIA:
Leader: Mike Schmidt, 548. Active leader: Ryan Howard (fifth), 225. Howard's three homers this year already moved him up a notch and another 40 -- and yeah, he's averaged 49 per 162 in his career -- would secure second place, above Del Ennis' 259. Howard's playing this season at 30 years old (he was born in November 1979) and would have 265 even if he hits a career full-season low of 43 in 2010. Schmidt, born in September 1949, had 283 when he finished his age-30 season in 1980. But Schmidt only averaged 37 per 162 and didn't play in a bandbox. Yes, Howard has the power to hit it out of any ballpark, but I'm sure he's benefitted from some first-row landings over the years, especially to the opposite field.

PITTSBURGH:
Leader: Willie Stargell, 475. Active leader: Ryan Doumit (55th), 47. Yeah, Doumit's not catching Big Willie. In fact, only seven players in the top 20 debuted after Stargell's last year in 1982: Barry Bonds (fourth, 176 homers), Brian Giles (sixth, 165), Jason Bay (eighth, 139), Kevin Young (10th, 136), Andy Van Slyke (13th, 117), Bobby Bonilla (15th, 114) and Al Martin (18th, 107).

ST. LOUIS:
Leader: Stan Musial, 475. Active leader: Albert Pujols (second), 370. I believe El Hombre will pass The Man. Adding his average of 43 homers for 2010 and '11, Pujols will get to 452. He'll pass Musial and very possibly hit his 500th career home run in 2012, the first year of his new contract with the Cardinals.

SAN DIEGO:
Leader: Nate Colbert, 163. Active leader: Adrian Gonzalez (sixth), 132. Next up, should Gonzalez not get there before a trade, is ... Scott Hairston. He ranks 35th with just 36 homers as a Padre. This franchise has had so little in terms of power hitters that Kevin Kouzmanoff, the third baseman traded to the A's in the offseason after just three seasons at PETCO Park, ranks 20th with a mere 59 dingers. Khalil Greene is in the top 10, with 84, tied for ninth with Fred McGriff.

SAN FRANCISCO:
Leader: Willie Mays, 646. Active leader: Bengie Molina (55th), 55. Had Rich Aurilia managed to force his way into a bench spot, he'd be 15th on the list with 143 homers, but with his retirement over the weekend, it falls all the way to Molina. Bonds' 586 couldn't pass his godfather overall, but he did pass both Mays (459) and McCovey (469) in San Francisco.

SEATTLE:
Leader: Ken Griffey Jr., 417. Active chaser: Ichiro Suzuki (15th), 84. Seattle's another relatively powerless franchise. Seven of the top 10 and 13 of the top 20 have played in the 21st Century and at Safeco Field. Following Griffey, No. 2 Edgar Martinez (309) and No. 3 Jay Buhner (307) is A-Rod (189). Ken Phelps is hanging on at No. 10 (105) and Adrian Beltre's 103 in his five seasons stand 11th.

TAMPA BAY:
Leader: Aubrey Huff, 128. Active leader: Carlos Pena (second), 117. Here, folks, is your least powerful franchise. The Rays' top 10 -- which goes 11 players deep because Jorge Cantu and Toby Hall are tied for 10th with 44 long balls -- averages out to 73 homers per player, the lowest of any club. Huff last played for the franchise in 2006. Carl Crawford is fourth with 85 and Evan Longoria, with all of 1,206 plate appearances in two seasons, is sixth with 62. In fact, Barry Bonds' "record" 73 homers in 2001 would put him fifth all-time in Tampa Bay franchise history had he hit them in green and black.

TEXAS:
Leader: Juan Gonzalez, 372. Active leader: Michael Young (11th), 138. Eleven behind Larry Parrish, Young is knocking on the top 10 and should get there this year. Two of last year's Rangers, Ivan Rodriguez (fourth, 217) and Hank Blalock (ninth, 152), appear in the top 10.

TORONTO:
Leader: Carlos Delgado, 336. Active leader: Vernon Wells (fourth), 197. Wells is the only active player in the Blue Jays' top 10 and his fast start -- five homers already -- put him just seven away from taking second place for himself. He's only got George Bell (202 homers) and Joe Carter (203) ahead of him, other than Delgado. If this start truly represents a rebirth for Wells, who hasn't hit his 162-game average 26 homers since 2006 -- when he hit 32 and prompted the Blue Jays to hand him a seven-year, $126 million extension -- and he can hit 26 a year through the end of the contract in 2014, Wells would get to 322, just 14 behind Delgado. One interesting note I discovered when looking for the terms of that deal: Bonus payments aside, the big salary didn't kick in until this season. He earned $5.6 million in '07, before the new deal took effect, and $500,000 in '08 and $1.5 million in '09, with bonus payments of $8.5 million on March 1 of 2008, '09 and '10. He's making $12.5 million this year, $23 million next year and $21 million in each of the final three years. With those numbers, he should get a chance to stick around and get a shot at Delgado.

WASHINGTON:
Leader: Vladimir Guerrero, 234. Active leader: Ryan Zimmerman (13th), 91. That's right, Mr. National is the active chaser of Vlad and, as a result, the leader since the franchise moved to Washington. My favorite part of this list is Nos. 31-32. Brian Schneider hit 47 homers in his eight years with the Expos/Nationals from 2000-07. Alfonso Soriano, in his one and only season in D.C., hit 46.

Taking stock of my 2006 predictions

I don't even want to talk about how long it's been.

So I won't. Instead, I'll take a look at how my preseason predictions panned out. Pretty well, it seems.

2006 NL East predictions
Mets
Braves (wild card)
Phillies
Nationals
Marlins

2006 NL East reality
Mets*
Phillies
Braves
Marlins
Nationals

What I wrote: I'm doing it. I'm not taking the easy way out and putting the Braves at the top and saying it's theirs until someone comes along and knocks them off. I'm going with my heart as much (if not more than) my mind and saying these Mets have not only the talent and the pieces, but the focus to fulfill the lofty expectations many have put on them. After the top two, I think the consensus is the bottom three will finish in this order unless one team plays way above its head or completely tanks.

*BANG! I called it! The Mets are your 2006 National League East champions and will forever be known as the team that snapped the Braves' run of 14 consecutive division titles. I couldn't get any other slots in this division right, and I give credit to my pal Brad, who on Opening Day at Shea Stadium predicted a third-place finish for Atlanta. (He had Philly as the wild card, which we all missed, but for him, just barely.)

At the end was my vague prediction that someone -- it turned out to be the Marlins and, to some extent, the Phillies -- would way overachieve and upset the order of finish. I'm not counting it as a win.

NL Central predictions
Cardinals
Astros
Brewers
Cubs
Pirates
Reds

NL Central reality
Cardinals*
Astros*
Reds
Brewers
Pirates*
Cubs

What I wrote: The Cardinals are in a similar position to the Yankees -- they didn't get any worse, but no one in their division did enough in the offseason to overtake them. I struggled with second place. Sports Illustrated elevated Milwaukee to that spot, but I didn't consider it myself, so I didn't want to just rip it off from them. I do agree that they do have the deepest pitching in the division, at least as long as Sidney Ponson is part of St. Louis' rotation -- or until he proves he can be a contributing member of said rotation. The Cubs, as we've so often said these past few years, have the talent, but can they keep everyone healthy? It's been trendy to compare this year's Pirates to last year's Brewers, but Pittsburgh is going to need the young pitching to make great strides for that to happen. Cincinnati could finish last in the league in ERA, even with Colorado in the league.

The Cardinals almost blew it, but in the end it was true: No one in the division did enough to surpass St. Louis. The Cubs indeed did struggle with injuries. Washington and Milwaukee were last in the NL in ERA; Cincinnati was seventh.

NL West predictions
Dodgers
Padres
Giants
Diamondbacks
Rockies

NL West reality
Padres
Dodgers (wild card)
Giants*
Diamondbacks*
Rockies*

What I wrote: At this point, Los Angeles appears to have the best pitching in the division, but San Diego is going to come close. The Dodgers, however, have a better offense -- assuming J.D. Drew and Nomar Garciaparra can stay in the lineup. But the Padres have issues of their own, with Mike Cameron and Ryan Klesko already disabled and Mike Piazza playing the part of a 36-year-old catcher. I'll forever be down on the Giants so long as half the roster meets the age requirement to live in a retirement community. Arizona made a great leap last year, but it's going to take a step or two back. The pitching's weaker and the lineup is younger. Colorado at least has a beautiful city to call home.

Technically, the Dodgers and Padres tied for first place, so I kinda got that, but because L.A. lost 13 of 18 to San Diego, the Pads won the division. San Diego's pitching led the NL, but the Dodgers led the league in batting average and were fourth -- but first in the division -- in runs scored. Cameron and Piazza turned in fine seasons, but Klesko didn't show up until September. Thankfully for the Padres, Adrian Gonzalez emerged as you might expect a former No. 1 overall draft pick to do. The Giants only got older as the season went on, Arizona looks strong for next year and Colorado showed some promise. Could be an interesting race in 2007.

AL East predictions
Yankees
Blue Jays
Red Sox
Devil Rays
Orioles

AL East reality
Yankees*
Blue Jays*
Red Sox*
Orioles
Devil Rays

What I wrote: As I mentioned before, no one has done enough yet to overtake New York, unless Toronto GM J.P. Ricciardi also picked up a set of pinstriped voodoo dolls. The Yankees' pitching is too old to take them too far, though. Pitching is why I put Toronto over Boston. I'll be impressed if the Sox get to October without a rash of injuries. I'm excited for the changes in Tampa Bay, and I think the team is excited too. I think that means something in the end. Though not without its stars, Baltimore is a mess.

I'd say I pretty much pegged everything except where Tampa Bay and Baltimore would finish. There were noticable and significant changes in Tampa, and Baltimore was such a mess the fans staged a walkout. Boston's pitching was a mess; only Tampa and Baltimore were worse in the AL, and injuries ravaged the Red Sox all season, almost from the beginning, when they had to move Jonathan Papelbon into the closer's role. They could've used him in the rotation, but considering that he had to be shut down because of arm soreness after pitching just 68 1/3 innings, he probably wouldn't have made it through August anyway.

AL Central predictions
White Sox
Indians
Tigers
Twins
Royals

AL Central reality
Twins
Tigers
White Sox
Indians
Royals*

What I wrote: Doesn't seem too hard to peg this one, but in saying that, I've probably jinxed the Twins to a free-fall and elevated the Indians to the top. Or something like that. Chicago retooled and didn't lose any key components from its World Championship team, so you can't pick against them. Cleveland has to avoid the fallback that hit surprising young teams like Texas and Kansas City in previous seasons, when they each reverted to their familiar ways in the year after they made a surprise run. Minnesota's lineup just can't keep up with Chicago's or Cleveland's and Jim Leyland may just make enough of a difference in Detroit to make the Twins pay. I just feel bad for Kansas City. There aren't enough fountains in the city to wash away the pain and embarrassment.

I must've been tired when I wrote that -- or rushing -- because it seems I meant to say I'd jinxed the Twins to the top and the Indians to near the bottom. It was clear the White Sox couldn't get the pitching they got last year, and so they became the first defending AL champion to miss the playoffs since the 2003 Angels. Cleveland did indeed regress after an impressive run in 2005, and Leyland was the difference, nearly leading the Tigers to the division crown. Had they not won the Wild Card -- the AL Central's first since it came about in 1995 -- they'd have suffered one of the worst collapses ever. The Royals avoided the worst record in baseball only because the Devil Rays managed one more loss.

AL West predictions
Angels
Athletics (wild card)
Rangers
Mariners

AL West reality
Athletics
Angels
Rangers*
Mariners*

What I wrote: I can't decide between Los Angeles and Oakland. I'm torn. It's close. But because the A's had more turnover in the offseason, I'm reading that as a slight edge for the Angels, who may get off to a better start because of the familiarity factor. Of course, Oakland will go on a 26-2 run in August that will make up any ground that sits between the two teams. Texas needs to find pitching and it didn't help when San Diego fleeced the Rangers in the Chris Young-for-Adam Eaton (and other pieces) trade. In Seattle, it's all about whether Felix Hernandez can reach his team-mandated max of 200 innings (spring training included) without getting hurt.

The Angels finished four games back, fighting the A's to within the last week. I did peg Oakland for the playoffs, and I was among those who could see that the wild card would not come out of the East. But that's about it. Hernandez threw 191 innings.

Not bad for the season. Not superb, but not horrible.

Some postseason thoughts to come by tomorrow's first pitch of the postseason. I'm sure my heart will win out.

Opening Day is here

When you're either out of the house or asleep for 45 of the 48 hours in a weekend, it's hard to find time to write. So in order to post my season predictions before the season starts in earnest, I'll have to go with the Cliff Notes version. I'll be out at Shea today, so this is the best I can do right now ...

NL East
Mets
Braves (wild card)
Phillies
Nationals
Marlins

I'm doing it. I'm not taking the easy way out and putting the Braves at the top and saying it's theirs until someone comes along and knocks them off. I'm going with my heart as much (if not more than) my mind and saying these Mets have not only the talent and the pieces, but the focus to fulfill the lofty expectations many have put on them. After the top two, I think the consensus is the bottom three will finish in this order unless one team plays way above its head or completely tanks.

NL Central
Cardinals
Astros
Brewers
Cubs
Pirates
Reds

The Cardinals are in a similar position to the Yankees -- they didn't get any worse, but no one in their division did enough in the off-season to overtake them. I struggled with second place. Sports Illustrated elevated Milwaukee to that spot, but I didn't consider it myself, so I didn't want to just rip it off from them. I do agree that they do have the deepest pitching in the division, at least as long as Sidney Ponson is part of St. Louis' rotation -- or until he proves he can be a contributing member of said rotation. The Cubs, as we've so often said these past few years, have the talent, but can they keep everyone healthy? It's been trendy to compare this year's Pirates to last year's Brewers, but Pittsburgh is going to need the young pitching to make great strides for that to happen. Cincinnati could finish last in the league in ERA, even with Colorado in the league.

NL West
Dodgers
Padres
Giants
Diamondbacks
Rockies

At this point, Los Angeles appears to have the best pitching in the division, but San Diego is going to come close. The Dodgers, however, have a better offense -- assuming J.D. Drew and Nomar Garciaparra can stay in the lineup. But the Padres have issues of their own, with Mike Cameron and Ryan Klesko already disabled and Mike Piazza playing the part of a 36-year-old catcher. I'll forever be down on the Giants so long as half the roster meets the age requirement to live in a retirement community. Arizona made a great leap last year, but it's going to take a step or two back. The pitching's weaker and the lineup is younger. Colorado at least has a beautiful city to call home.

AL East
Yankees
Blue Jays
Red Sox
Devil Rays
Orioles

As I mentioned before, no one has done enough yet to overtake New York, unless Toronto GM J.P. Ricciardi also picked up a set of pinstriped voodoo dolls. The Yankees' pitching is too old to take them too far, though. Pitching is why I put Toronto over Boston. I'll be impressed if the Sox get to October without a rash of injuries. I'm excited for the changes in Tampa Bay, and I think the team is excited too. I think that means something in the end. Though not without its stars, Baltimore is a mess.

AL Central
White Sox
Indians
Tigers
Twins
Royals

Doesn't seem too hard to peg this one, but in saying that, I've probably jinxed the Twins to a free-fall and elevated the Indians to the top. Or something like that. Chicago retooled and didn't lose any key components from its World Championship team, so you can't pick against them. Cleveland has to avoid the fallback that hit surprising young teams like Texas and Kansas City in previous seasons, when they each reverted to their familiar ways in the year after they made a surprise run. Minnesota's lineup just can't keep up with Chicago's or Cleveland's and Jim Leyland may just make enough of a difference in Detroit to make the Twins pay. I just feel bad for Kansas City. There aren't enough fountains in the city to wash away the pain and embarrassment.

AL West
Angels
Athletics (wild card)
Rangers
Mariners

I can't decide between Los Angeles and Oakland. I'm torn. It's close. But because the A's had more turnover in the off-season, I'm reading that as a slight edge for the Angels, who may get off to a better start because of the familiarity factor. Of course, Oakland will go on a 26-2 run in August that will make up any ground that sits between the two teams. Texas needs to find pitching and it didn't help when San Diego fleeced the Rangers in the Chris Young-for-Adam Eaton (and other pieces) trade. In Seattle, it's all about whether Felix Hernandez can reach his team-mandated max of 200 innings (spring training included) without getting hurt.

Happy Opening Day.

Reviewing 2005

Soooo ... new season starting up next week. Sunday for the White Sox and Indians; Monday for most everybody else.

About time I start up this here blog again, don't you think? The good news is that I start a new job tomorrow, one that brings me closer to baseball and also leaves my days free. I'm hoping this change in schedule allows for more frequent posting. I plan to make this thing better than it's been. Actually, I think it's been pretty good, and since I'm really only doing it for my own enjoyment, that's the only vote that matters. But it's been infrequent, and that's my main issue with it. So here's to more regularity, without the need to add prunes to my diet.

Now, before I get to my thoughts and predictons for this season, I need to review what I did last year. That's how undisciplined I've been. Let me get that out of the way now. Last year's full NL predictions are here and the AL ones are here.

---

2005 NL East predictions
Braves
Marlins (wild card)
Mets
Phillies
Nationals

2005 NL East reality
Braves*
Phillies
Mets*
Marlins (tied with Mets)
Nationals*

Asterisks in all divisions indicate when I pegged that slot correctly. In 2004, I doubted the Braves and decided last year that I'd stick with them until they didn't do it. It got me three out of five right for a good start. When I get to this year's picks, we'll see if they can live up to my thoughts on them this year.

What I got right: 1. "I’m also not sold on Dan Kolb at the back of the bullpen. Something tells me he’s going to have his share of struggles. Offensively, Rafael Furcal will have a stellar season in his contract year ... Brian Jordan will probably lose his job after further injury and may end up retiring after this season."

2. "The [Mets'] The bullpen scares me." While Roberto Hernandez and, in the second half, Aaron Heilman were much better than expected, if they'd been stronger in the 'pen, Pedro might've won 20 and the Mets might've won 90.

3. "It won’t be like 1973, when nobody wanted to take first place and 82 wins was enough. But it could be like that year in that the fourth-place team is still within five games of first place." Fourth place in the NL East was the Mets' and Marlins' .512 winning percentage, which put them seven games out of first. It also would have put them in first place in the horrendous NL West and in third place in any other division.

4. "[The Phillies'] have had high expectations for a couple of years now and have been unable to perform under that pressure. Maybe the lowered expectations and the new, laid-back manager will allow this team to relax and play to its potential." Two games out of first and one behind Houston for the wild card.

5. "The crowds will be there, and [the Nationals] will be an exciting team at times, but they just don’t have the horses to keep up with the thoroughbreds in this division. ... I also like the chances for Jose Guillen to turn things around. Again." Everyone got swept up in Washington's fast start and first-place standing in June, but their lack of depth showed in the second half.

2005 NL Central predictions
Cardinals
Cubs
Astros
Reds
Brewers
Pirates

2005 NL Central reality
Cardinals*
Astros (wild card)
Brewers
Cubs
Reds
Pirates*

I'm now 5 of 11 in slotting teams; just short of .500.

What I got right: 1. "Can Matt Morris be an 18-game winner again? Can Jason Marquis and Chris Carpenter pitch like front-of-the-rotation starters like they did in 2004?" I asked these questions saying that the Cards needed a healthy staff to repeat as division champions. Morris won 14 after missing three weeks to start the season, so while not 18, it was close enough. And I think Carpenter pitched like a "front-of-the-rotation" starter.

2. "Having [Mark Prior and Kerry Wood] healthy for a full season (or five and a half months) may be the difference between third place and first place" for the Cubs. Obviously, they didn't have those two for much of the season, and it dropped them all the way to fourth place.

3. "[T]his season could be where we see the true emergence of Corey Patterson, Aramis Ramirez and Derrek Lee. All three had strong seasons last year, but I think this year they all do it again, cementing their star status – or elevating it to the next level." We did see the true emergence of all three, though Patterson's status fell short of not just "everyday starter," but also that of "major leaguer," let alone "star."

4. "[T]he Astros might make a run this season despite their off-season losses." I'll say ...

5. "[T]hey’ve got promising replacements in Jason Lane and Wily Taveras. And there’s also Andy Pettitte. Though his totals were low because of injury last season, the lefty’s peripherals (a 3.90 ERA, 2.5:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio) were enough that a full, healthy season would make a big difference to the team."

6. "The [Brewers'] addition of Carlos Lee and the development of youngsters like Lyle Overbay and Junior Spivey give Milwaukee some more oomph in the order. With Ben Sheets, Doug Davis and Chris Capuano developing, this Crew has some promise. Not enough to end a streak of 12 consecutive losing seasons, tied with the Pirates as the longest active streaks in the majors, but enough to give fans reason to hope things could soon be changing." I was wrong on the bit about the losing seasons -- an 81-81 record isn't losing -- but fans have reason to hope things are changing.

7. "The [Pirates] still have a long way to go. It’s a shame their classy manager, Lloyd McClendon, likely won’t be the one to get there with them." They do, and he isn't.

2005 NL West predictions
Padres*
Dodgers
Giants*
Diamondbacks
Rockies*

2005 NL West reality
Padres
Diamondbacks
Giants
Dodgers
Rockies

The cumulative tally: 8-for-16. Back to .500.

What I got right: 1. "This could be another three-team race, but the two who don’t finish on top aren’t going to be playing for a wild card." Only part I missed was that the Diamondbacks were the third team in the race, not the Dodgers.

2. "I don’t like either the Dodgers or Giants for second place ...". The ellipsis is there because of the part where I say, "but one of them will get it because it won’t be Colorado or Arizona." Whoops.

3. "Eric Gagne’s injury is bad news, and if he’s out too long, they may slide too much." Bingo. The team did get off to a hot start, leading the division through the first month.

4. Siting age, I wrote, "I think the Giants will put up a fight (Barry always does, whether or not it’s warranted), but it won’t be enough."

2005 AL East predictions
Yankees*
Red Sox (wild card)*
Orioles
Blue Jays
Devil Rays*

2005 AL East reality
Yankees
Red Sox (wild card)
Blue Jays
Devil Rays

I'm now 11-for-21 with the slotting.

What I got right: 1. "I do, however, think we're going to see a sharp decline in the skills of at least one of these three players: Bernie Williams, Gary Sheffield or Mariano Rivera." In hindsight, that was pretty easy to foresee. Might we see it happen to Sheff this year?

2. "I also think either Carl Pavano or Jaret Wright will turn out to be a questionable signing, if not downright horrible, though the latter is really only in the case of Wright. And it's Wright whom I think will be the bust much more than Pavano. Though I still have my doubts about him." If I could see these coming, why couldn't the Yankees?

3. "I also think Tino Martinez and Jason Giambi will combine for 40-50 homers ...". Giambi's 32 + Martinez's 17 = 49.

4. "I would love to see this division come down to the final series in Boston. ... Boston will finish a close second." I guess a tie is a "close second."

5. "[Matt Clement] was 9-13 with the Cubs last year; I could see him going 13-9 this time." He went 13-6.

6. "I do see a chance that Bill Mueller or Mark Bellhorn won't be the starters at third or second, respectively, come August ..." Bellhorn's last game with the Sox was July 17 against the Yankees; the next time he took the field, he was playing for the Yankees on August 30.

7. "Unless Rodrigo Lopez and Daniel Cabrera take two big steps forward, each, to something like 13-15 wins, this team will lose a lot of games when it scores six or seven runs." Lopez went 15-12; Cabrera 10-13, so close. Bruce Chen came out of nowhere -- or everywhere, considering the teams he's played with -- to go 13-10.

8. "Well, Tom Verducci has some numbers that say Toronto will improve upon its 67-94 record from last year, though I doubt it will be by much. Maybe 72 wins? Seventy-four? Tampa Bay won 71 last year and could do so again." I give props where they're due, and Verducci's numbers were more accurate than my gut feeling. He also pegged the Diamondbacks for a boost. Nice work.

2005 AL Central predictions
Twins
Indians*
White Sox
Tigers*
Royals*

2005 AL Central reality
White Sox
Indians
Twins
Tigers
Royals

The division tally: 14-for-26. Improving, but as we're about to see, I had little else right in this division.

What I got right: 1. "Coco Crisp may become a 20-20 guy this year, and if Grady Sizemore is given a chance, might have found himself among the top three Rookie of the Year names come November, had he not had 138 at bats last year." Sizemore did; Crisp was 16/15, but that 20/20 could come this year in Boston.

2. "... Detroit should at least match last year's 72 wins." They were one short with 71. Close enough for government work.

2005 AL West predictions
Angels*
Athletics*
Rangers*
Mariners*

2005 AL West reality

Angels
Athletics
Rangers
Mariners

Overall, 18-for-30 in predicting the correct position in the standings for all 30 teams. This division may be easy because it only has four teams, but at least last year, it seemed pretty apparent who would come out on top and who would contend. I wasn't too good with team-by-team specifics again in this division, but I also wrote less specific things.

What I got right: 1. "I like Chris Young, but that's about it." The 6'10" Princeton graduate went 12-7 and is now in San Diego, where he's getting even more love this spring.

2. "I don't think Texas will lose 100 games, but can they win 85? Not so sure of that. I do see a return to 30-30 for Alfonso Soriano ..." They went 79-83; Soriano had 36 HR and 30 SB.

---

In the next couple of days, I'll sort out what I think about each team for 2006. It's just days away ...

Future programming on MLB's own network

If the Yankees are the Fox reality TV show of MLB (the one you love to watch because you either want to see the next Kelly Clarkson do well, or you love the train wreck that is the talentless hacks getting their comeuppance while continuing to insist that they're great even as they're packing their bags and heading home), then the Red Sox are the daytime soap opera.

Like resin through the pitcher's fingers, these are the days of our lives -- as Red Sox Nation turns ...

It's no surprise that Theo Epstein returned as GM. If you ask those New Englanders, everyone's been saying he's been orchestrating Boston's off-season moves since November despite not being officially employed by the team. Everything they do in Boston, it seems, is punctuated by the dramatic background music and soft-focus lens of an afternoon serial production.

In the vein of aligning the major league franchises with characters from The Simpsons, how would the majors look if the teams were paired up with television shows? In some cases, but not all, the city is the obvious answer. In others, there's a distinct character to the team that lends itself to a comparison with television programming. More of a seat-of-my-pants impulsive comparison than a researched philosophical study, these pairings reflect a team's more recent trends than an overall historical characterization. Just so we're clear.

NL EAST

Atlanta Braves = Law & Order: Despite a rotating cast (and one or two older guys who are there through it all), they remain steady and consistent with a steadfast, businesslike approach.

Florida Marlins = The Planet's Funniest Animals: Campy and ridiculous, you have to either be a diehard or a child to sit through it.

New York Mets = Love Monkey: In the country's largest city, this is the story of a small-name label trying to compete with the big boys.

Philadelphia Phillies = Cold Case: Long dormant and forgotten by all except those whose loved ones are involved.

Washington Nationals = E-Ring: There's a gray, old man set in his ways who's unafraid to speak his mind and an outfit unable to affect any significant changes without first slogging through all the red tape. If they were still the Expos, they'd be Cheers -- sometimes you want to go where everybody knows your name (and it's never too crowded) and there's always a seat for you right where the action is.

NL CENTRAL

Chicago Cubs = ER: Not only for the Chicago connection, but also for the propensity to feature several varied and recurring injury situations.

Cincinnati Reds = Emily's Reasons Why Not: Looks promising after the first pitch, but then you don't need much more than one viewing to see that there are major problems with development.

Houston Astros = The O.C.: Is it me, or does it seem like all of the principle contributors are white?

Milwaukee Brewers = I Love the 80s: Filled with people born just before (and now even in) the 1980s who are trying to bring back those 20-year-old glory days.

Pittsburgh Pirates = I'm A Celebrity, Get Me Out of Here!: You wonder how these fringe "stars" are still considered celebrities and you know that the truly good ones, with talent, will put it to use somewhere else.

St. Louis Cardinals = Smallville: In small-town middle America, a super man with a red-and-yellow logo on his chest performs feats the likes of which no one has ever seen.

NL WEST

Arizona Diamondbacks = Star Search: In this competition of mostly unknown talents, who will emerge as America's next superstar?

Colorado Rockies = Star Trek: They're above us all, literally, trying to survive in the thin air.

Los Angeles Dodgers = America's Next Top Model: Where aspiring stars come from all over America to bask in the spotlight, but all too often tend to wither under the pressure.

San Diego Padres = Lost: Comes out of nowhere (well, virtually nowhere) to have a stellar 2005. Shot in a beautiful setting with a leading man who used to be a star several years ago and is looking to make a comeback.

San Francisco Giants = Matlock: They may be old, but don't put them out to pasture just yet. Plus, they have that enduring mystery in Barry Bonds. (Alternate: Antiques Roadshow, which doesn't need much explanation.)

AL EAST

Baltimore Orioles = The People's Court: Punctuated by characters ready to sue at the drop of a hat and with ridiculous defendants who paint themselves into a corner with statements that are soon proven falls. Not to mention former friends who then turn on their pals.

Boston Red Sox = As the World Turns: As discussed.

New York Yankees = American Idol: You either love 'em or you hate 'em.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays = Romper Room: Just a bunch of kids running around playing.

Toronto Blue Jays = Hockey Night In Canada: The excitement just doesn't quite translate south of the border.

AL CENTRAL

Chicago White Sox = Sports Night: Struggling to get noticed in their own field, they may not be loved by everyone, but you know there will be some entertaining comments and back-and-forth dialogue.

Cleveland Indians = Veronica Mars: Underrated and overlooked, but the fans know what everyone else is missing.

Detroit Tigers = Extreme Makeover: Home Edition: They spare no expense, have a guy who likes to shout a lot (Dmitri Young; Ty Pennington), and in the end you're probably in tears.

Kansas City Royals = Fear Factor: It's always fun to see just how far other people will go for big money. Some will eat bugs, others will voluntarily play in Kansas City.

Minnesota Twins = Arrested Development: Loved by fans and praised by pundits, but prematurely sent out to pasture by the head honcho.

AL WEST

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim = He-Man and the Masters of the Universe: One powerful young man and his slightly-less-gifted allies take on all comers. Plus, they attempt to claim most of the known universe as their home base. (Another option was TNT's The Closer, but I question how many people know of that show.)

Oakland Athletics = The Office: Not sure it would work without anyone else leading the way, so enjoy it while he's there.

Texas Rangers = Walker, Texas Ranger: No, wait, it works: Take a reliable concept (a cop show; a starting pitcher) and make him a Texas Ranger and somehow, it's just ridiculous (Chuck Norris as a martial-arts-master Ranger; Kenny Rogers).

Seattle Mariners = Yu-Gi-Oh: First a hit on the Pacific Rim, then a stateside success; also features a zippy, diminutive Japanese icon.