Looking back before moving forward

Ugh. My predictions this year did not turn out well, certainly not nearly as well as Keith Olbermann's. I've nailed some in the past, but this year it just wasn't there for me.

Here's a quick rundown, then a side-by-side comparison of predictions vs. reality.

THE GOOD

I had three teams pegged for their places in their respective divisions: the Yankees (second), Angels (third), Nationals (last) and Brewers (third).

I had one team's record spot-on: the Indians (69-93).

I had 11 teams' records within three, either way, of how they ended up. Relatedly, I had 12 records pegged for their corresponding spots in the divisions within two games (I had the the AL East winner at 95-67 and the champs were 96-66) and one, third in the NL West, spot-on (83-79). But I only matched up the teams with those records and places three times (Yankees, Angels, Nationals).

I had the Yankees as the Wild Card and the Braves and Phillies in the playoffs, but three out of eight ain't good.

THE BAD

I didn't trust the hunch I had two years ago when I thought the Reds could surprise in the NL Central.

I put too much believe into the Mariners hype and not enough into the Giants' pitching in what did prove to be a wide-open division.

I was convinced the Pirates could start to move up (not have a winning season, but not finish last) in baseball's weakest division, but instead, Pittsburgh had its worst season in 59 years (42-112 in 1952). Still, I believe they've got a brighter future than the Astros, mainly because they don't have Ed Wade at the helm.

THE DETAILS

What I said about the divisions that turned out somewhat prophetic:

AL EAST: Predicting these top three is a tossup. It wouldn't surprise me to see any of the three get to the World Series, with two of them facing off in the ALCS to do so. ... AL WEST: Yeah, I'm drinking the Kool-Aid on the Mariners. I can't say I'm too confident in that choice, especially with Cliff Lee off to an inauspicious start in Seattle. I just don't know if the Angels still have the pitching. I do think the Rangers are set to make some more strides this year, but the A's just don't have the offense ... NL EAST: I'm just not sure -- again, like Olbermann -- that Philly will be as fortunate with the injuries. I mean really, did the Mets take their share, plus the Yankees' plus the Phillies' last year? ... My choice of 84 wins for the Mets is down from what I thought at the start of Spring Training, when I was saying about 88 in discussions with friends and colleagues. But after seeing how the Maine-Perez-Pelfrey trio performed in Florida, losing Daniel Murphy (and not taking that opportunity to give Ike Davis a shot) and hearing that Alex Cora and Gary Matthews Jr. will get the Opening Day starts over Ruben Tejada and Angel Pagan, my faith is again shaken. And 84 is still a hopeful pick -- as in hoping the Mets can have one of those inspired spurts after changing managers. ... Florida definitely has some great stars, but who's after Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco? Who's in the bullpen? And it's a bit of a top-heavy lineup. ... Washington will score runs and Stephen Strasburg will draw the fans and live up to the hype, but the back half of the rotation, the bullpen and the defense aren't enough to get them to 75 or 80 wins this year. ... NL CENTRAL: Chicago might be too high, unless Alfonso Soriano and Aramis Ramirez improve over last year to make up for the inevitable regression by Derrek Lee. Love the guy, but not sure he can repeat last year. ... Milwaukee brought in Doug Davis for the rotation and last year's Opening Day starter, Jeff Suppan, had a horrible spring and was placed on the DL in favor of ... Manny Parra. ... I can't buy into the Reds because Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo haven't been pitching like front-of-the-rotation pitchers for a couple of years. ... NL WEST: Big fan of the Rockies. I love Troy Tulowitzki and think their pitching is solid and they've got a great collection of young stars to offset Todd Helton's golden years. ... The Giants' big three in the rotation is great, but Jonathan Sanchez needs to put it together and they need to score more runs to win the division. ... As great as Joe Torre is -- and he's probably the perfect manager to guide the team with the off-the-field drama of the McCourts' divorce -- I don't know that he can manage around Manny Ramirez's fade or a depleted pitching staff. This is a team that was one step away from the World Series the past two years, but has only subtracted (at least from 2009 to 2010) and not added the pieces it would need to get past the Phillies. ...Does Adrian Gonzalez finish the season in San Diego, or in October? That is the question.

I left that Gonzalez line in there because he nearly did both.

THE REALITY

PREDICTIONS				REALITY
AL East	W	L		AL East	W	L
Boston	95	67		Tampa Bay	96	66
New York	93	69		New York	95	67
Tampa Bay	91	71		Boston	89	73
Baltimore	70	92		Toronto	85	77
Toronto	65	97		Baltimore	66	96
AL Central				AL Central
Chicago	85	77		Minnesota	94	68
Detroit	83	79		Chicago	88	74
Minnesota	83	79		Detroit	81	81
Kansas City	70	92		Cleveland	69	93
Cleveland	69	93		Kansas City	67	95
AL West				AL West
Seattle	86	76		Texas	90	72
Texas	83	79		Oakland	81	81
Anaheim	81	81		Anaheim	80	82
Oakland	80	82		Seattle	61	101
NL East	W	L		NL East	W	L
Atlanta	90	72		Philadelphia	97	65
Philadelphia	88	74		Atlanta	91	71
New York	84	78		Florida	80	82
Florida	83	79		New York	79	83
Washington	67	95		Washington	69	93
NL Central				NL Central
St. Louis	88	74		Cincinnati	91	71
Chicago	84	78		St. Louis	86	76
Milwaukee	84	78		Milwaukee	77	85
Cincinnati	80	82		Houston	76	86
Pittsburgh	74	88		Chicago	75	87
Houston	65	97		Pittsburgh	57	105
NL West				NL West
Colorado	87	75		San Francisco	92	70
San Francisco	84	78		San Diego	90	72
Los Angeles	83	79		Colorado	83	79
Arizona	78	84		Los Angeles	80	82
San Diego	77	85		Arizona	65	97